[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204204882

Thank you for this.

I appreciate that we are collectively in agreement about Chicago 7.

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204203278

1. Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sound of Metal
3. Mank
4. Minari
5. Nomadland
6. Promising Young Woman
7. The Father
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204174473

If Close Glenn wins Razzie, I will 100% put her in first for Oscar.

[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204174426

I’m absolutely baffled at how Pinocchio is STILL 4th!? in the predictions center.

It’s winning

Ma Rainey‘s makeup isn’t all that impressive outside of the work done on Viola Davis. Same goes for Hillbilly Elegy, which has more prosthetics but still is only showy with a character or two. Emma. was always this year’s Victoria and Abdul. Oh right, Mank‘s there too.

Anyway, here’s my predictions and thoughts as of right now.

 

Cinematography: Nomadland

(Methinks Nomadland could be performing a clean sweep on the 25th. Judas and the Black Messiah, IMO has the best overall shot composition, exposure, color, and use of focus of all the nominees. If there’s an upset, watch out for Sean Bobbitt. If he wins BAFTA, I might consider switching. Mank isn’t winning this, as too much of its cinematography is heavily manipulated via VFX.)

 

Editing: Nomadland

(Again, I’m currently predicting a Nomadland sweep. The film borders on documentary, a genre heavily reliant on a skilled editor. It would be strange for Chloe Zhao to win Director, Picture, Screenplay and miss this one too, considering the editing is arguably the best thing about the film. Sound of Metal isn’t Whiplash 2. The editing in Trial of the Chicago 7 is however right up their alley. TOTALLY UNNECESSARY SPOILER WARNING: The scene where Hagen is interrogated by Kunstler about a certain tape recording is showy, showy, showy. Can Trial win Editing and not follow with Screenplay and Picture though? Hmmm…..)

 

Production Design: Mank 

(This is its deserved win. Watch any recent interview with Donald Graham if you’re still unconvinced. Along with certain wins for Boseman, Kaluuya, Soul, and Sound of Metal, this production design award recipient is among the most assured of the ceremony)

 

Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 

(The potential oldest-winner-ever commemorations aside, that story Viola Davis repeats while promoting the film about Ann Roth and the background actors in the opening scene is a strong seller. CAUTION: Costumes have been known to pull a “wtf” from time to time. Pinocchio was nominated at CDG…)

 

Makeup & Hairstyling: Pinocchio 

(Seriously, people, just use your optic nerves with this one…)

 

Visual Effects: Love and Monsters

(While not a hovering Best Picture contender, I’m kinda going off the Ex Machina precedent with this one. L&M is an outlier among the nominees with a relatively low budget given its scope. Ex Machina is the only recent winner also to not be nominated by VES, another thing it shares in common with L&M. I’ve had a gut feeling ever since the shortlist was announced that if this film got nominated, it would end up winning.)

 

Sound: Sound of Metal

(Non-negotiable winner. Watch the movie. Cry your ears out.)

 

Score: Soul

(In addition to an entire season of accolades, statistically speaking its nomination in Sound seals the deal on this one)

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204167189

VFX:  Love & Monsters

You know you want to.

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204167111

M: The Original wrote:

Outside of Junebug none of her followup nods felt competitive for the win. Only Vice had a truly overdue narrative attached and they went for King.

Had Bohemian Rhapsody not been the box office juggernaut that it was ($905 million), Christian Bale would have won for Vice. In that alternate universe, Amy Adams could have coat-tailed and won.

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204167086

It would be inappropriate to insinuate that Adam Amy is the new Close Glenn.

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204167082

John Berchmans wrote:

Guys Amy Adams won SAG. I know because my grandpa is a SAG voter. Trust me.

Sure, why not?

[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204167004

Goshdarnit, I guess My Octopus Teacher really is winning this thing afterall, huh?

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204147605

Marlon Brando.

He did to screen acting what Jimi Hendrix did to the electric guitar.

Decades later, other virtuosos (Your Daniel Day Lewis’s, your Eddie Van Halen’s, etc.) may have followed in their footsteps and taken the craft to new heights, but they owe it to the one who kicked down the door in the first place.

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204144473

Original Score and Lead Actress

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[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204140775

Unless something shocking wins PGA like Judas and the Black Messiah, this is a 3 horse race between Nomadland, Minari, and Trial of the Chicago 7. 

Nomadland and Minari will both have a lot of passionate number 1 votes. In my opinion, Minari has a slight advantage over Nomadland in that it’s a film you could sit the whole family down to watch. I think there’s enough Academy voters who will respect the artistic achievements of Nomadland but will be turned off by the appearance of it being “plotless”. Regardless, Zhao might as well have had the Director award engraved back in December when everyone realized Mank wasn’t Fincher’s vehicle to the Dolby stage.

Trial could still very easily pull an Argo and win editing, screenplay, and picture. It will be helped tremendously by the preferential ballot. It will likely get many 2’s and 3’s. My pause on that is that if they watch Judas, an obviously superior retelling of late 60’s/early 70’s Chicago, they’ll realize Trial is milquetoast in comparison.

I think SAG is gonna call this one, honestly.

[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204137559

Here’s a random thought: Seeing as how The Father was able to get production design and editing, I wonder if Rufus Sewell was closer than anyone thought to making the lineup.

He wasn’t even on my radar. After finally seeing the film, I wonder if he would have made a non-jury BAFTA? Paul is a crucial character in that story.

[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204132982

Stanfield showing up in supporting kind of proves that noone will ever be able predict 100% of the nominations. The game is rigged! Rigged I say!

[Bohemian Bovine Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 94 View Predictions]

#1204132916

Da 5 Bloods in Score is my favorite nomination of the morning.
It got me feeling like…