[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204947523

kbc wrote:

Unconfirmed either way, though it does appear as if Apple is preparing for a potential delay thanks to the protracted postproduction on Killers of the Flower Moon, plus some additional shooting planned. Apple clearly is hopeful that Cha Cha Real Smooth will be a smaller-scale voter charmer, but competition on all scales this season is shaping up to be rather heavy. Apple is also releasing potential fall fest candidates Raymond & Ray with Ewan McGregor and Ethan Hawke, and Peter Farrelly’s The Greatest Beer Run Ever with Zac Efron, but understandably nothing has the Oscar potential, at least on paper, in Apple’s stable that Scorsese’s film possesses.

I think Cha Cha Real Smooth probably has a solid chance in Original Screenplay.

I don’t see Raymond & Ray happening.

The Greatest Beer Run Ever could happen. I can see a screenplay nomination and a Supporting Actor nomination for Russell Crowe (most likely of the cast) happening.

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204936393

Honestly, I think David O. Russell is one of the better writer auteurs working today. I’ve never found one of his film’s boring.

Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle stand out, to me, as his best films. The Fighter is, also, very good, to be fair, but the other two have an energy and pace that is increasingly disappearing in movies over the years.

Out of all the nominees in Editing in 2013, American Hustle should probably have won. It was, also, probably on a par with Great Gatsby for Costume Design.

I like both Her and 12 Years A Slave (especially the latter), but I don’t think they should necessarily have won screenplay. To me, they’re better shot and directed than they are written. Both American Hustle and Wolf Of Wall Street should have won, then let Steve McQueen take director over Cuaron.

I wouldn’t have voted for it in Picture, but it would probably be No. 3 for me. 12 Years and Wolf Of Wall Street beat it, on the whole, but I would probably vote for Adams in Actress and Cooper in Supporting Actor.

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204934700

DanC wrote:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1519353559413927936&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldderby.com%2Fforum%2Fmovies%2F2023-oscars-best-picture-and-director-part-1%2F&sessionId=268c46728609b3396e5a20151d7051339e5984fc&siteScreenName=GoldDerby&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Well, Netflix’s place in the race just got a bit more interesting.

If the controversy doesn’t submerge the film, then this is getting at least one above-the-line nomination. All of his films outside of Amorres Perros (his first) have achieved this.

All of them, also, got an acting nomination.

This has a lot of potential, I reckon.

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204931934

I can’t lie. My feeling is with Everything Everywhere All At Once is that I’m gonna have to watch it to figure out if it will get in at the Oscars. (I live in the UK)

Same applies for The Batman, which I haven’t seen either (even though it’s had a full cinematic run), although I fully expect The Batman to have lower prospects.

For me, I’m thoroughly convinced someone from Killers Of The Flower Moon gets in. It’ll probably be DeNiro, who has a very good definitely supporting role. And it’s a Scorsese film, so if he were to get nominated again it would be for one of his films. Also, if he’s good in Canterbury Glass, that’ll give him an edge. (I think there’s a very low chance he gets in for supporting in that film. Practically zero. They’ll push JDW instead.) I can see both getting in based on the statistic of 2 people from the same film getting into one supporting category from 2017 onwards. Could be The Father (Dern/Kirby), Babylon (Brad Pitt/someone else), The Fabelmans (Rogen/Dano) or anyone really, but Scorsese’s film is probably going to be an awards player. Only two of his films since the turn of the millennium haven’t – Shutter Island and Silence. Shutter Island was a psychological thriller released in March, which has become a cult classic over time – not the sort of film that gets awards recognition. Silence was a biblical epic and more of an artistic endeavour for Scorsese. Killers Of The Flower Moon fits his more Oscar-friendly style that he can do.

My feeling is that they end up campaigning Hugh Jackman here, but I could be totally wrong. It would probably be category fraud, but Jackman 100% wins here if his main competition is DeNiro and Brad Pitt, as Jackman has never won before. Ke Huy Quan could win here, but that really depends on how strong the film ends up being when the Oscars happen. It could maintain momentum. It might not. I don’t know. I might when I see the film.

I think Brad Pitt stands a reasonable chance of winning in a funny way I feel. Waltz and Ali both won double Oscars very close together. Babylon will provide the type of movie-star role in which Pitt thrives. Just how Waltz and Ali were cast in roles they thrive in which few other actors couldn’t.

Currently, he’s my bet for the winner, but it’s a soft bet and I fully expect to be proven wrong here.

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204929263

Michael Fassbender is in both Next Goal Wins and The Killer.

Is it possible that Next Goal Wins is more of an across-the-board nominee, but he actually himself gets nominated for The Killer, similar to Leo for Blood Diamond/The Departed in 2006?

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204924035

Go Yeoh! wrote:

Academy loves David O Russel, so I am divided on how Canterbury Glass will perform. But when people say that Taylor Swift is the standout among the sea of actors, I do become a bit skeptical. And none of the actors are JLaw to get nominated on basis of their name. Considering the early reception it is receiving, I don’t see anyone getting nominated for it (maybe except Bale)

I don’t know if I personally buy early reactions to some films, unless they are a big cluster or the person in question has got a good track-record.

 

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204924031

Go Yeoh! wrote:

Do you think if EEATO had released last year during fall, it would have been a major awards contender?

Unlikely.

Perhaps, the early release will give it more hype, in a way.

I don’t know if Get Out or CODA would have done as well, if they were released at the same time as films directed by huge names or starring huge names.

Michelle Yeoh is somewhat known, but is probably not enough to solely get attention for a film, to be honest.

It’s why I’m semi-sceptical of it. It could happen and it seems more likely over time, but other films have seemed like they might be big awards players in the early days of Awards season, but end up not making a dent. Of course, the opposite, but wouldn’t be confident enough to say it’s really a lock in any category.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204915040

Babylonian wrote:

I don’t think Will Smith was a jury pick.

Agree. DiCaprio must have been the jury pick, imo.

Will Smith was clearly the frontrunner for the TV awards shows, from as soon as his film’s reviews were released.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204915037

gorman wrote:

As far as I understand it the juries were introduced to address a historical lack of diversity in BAFTA voting. BAFTA experienced heavy criticism for a number of years for this, most obviously exemplified by the fact Denzel Washington had never been nominated there. The juries are essentially there to ensure it isn’t all straight white men and women getting nominations. They’ve succeeded as far as I’m concerned and have proven effectively that diversifying nominees isn’t just a box-ticking exercise – the past 2 years BAFTA has had by far the most interesting and (in my opinion) the most talented slates of directing and acting nominees across the major awards.

I don’t think that’s fully the purpose of the jury…

The Denzel omission is unique, but one gets the impression he might just not be their favourite actor. Remember, he wasn’t nominated last year. And these are the same BAFTAs that gave awards to Ejoifer and Bakhdad Abdi in 2013, as well as Nyong’o (who was sweeping anyway). I don’t know how justified the call that they are racist is… especially when they did that in an era where the omission of non-white winners (for the most part) was pretty unusual, especially given the wins from about in the 2000s.

Also, the Jury is clearly the reason some people like Barry Keoghan, Leonardo diCaprio, Stephen Graham, Niamh Algar and Jesse Plemons are getting in, so I think, in a way, there is more to it than just them trying to be more diverse.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204915035

braydenfitzsimmons wrote:

I feel film industry are desperate to reward Lynch (or at least nominate again), his honorary Oscar, the fact that most cinephiles called the 3rd season of an 18-episode cable series the best film of the year/decade just because he was included.

This is true…. But I will argue that ever since his director nomination for Blue Velvet, it’s been clear they want to reward his eccentric, unique genius.

The problem is that he’ll churn out masterpiece after masterpiece….

But Mulholland Drive, Lost Highway and Wild At Heart are just the kind of films that are never going to win Best Picture.

I would love Lynch to win Best Director, but I feel like unless it is accessible in a similar way to The Elephant Man or, heck, even the first series of Twin Peaks, then he will be lucky to get in.

I doubt it, though… Lynch’s films have gotten more artistic over time… Look at the Twin Peaks finale and Inland Empire for that.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204910497

ConMan wrote:

The implication has been that they’re rewriting it to make DiCaprio’s new character the lead… https://nofilmschool.com/2023/11/why-did-leonardo-dicaprio-want-killers-flower-moon-rewritten

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204908247

teresa wrote:

Apparently both Leo and Brad read the script for Babylon while they were filming Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Brad was the one that ended up getting the role. The Margot Robbie triangle here makes it funny to me too

If anyone has read the script here, would the film be better if DiCaprio was there instead of Pitt?

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204905735

RIDLEY SCOTT wrote:

I known for a fact that Paramount has tried several times to remake The Godfather 1. But no director in all Hollywood(so far) has accepted

No one ever will 😉

X

Reply

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204894939

Cosmia wrote:

I’m a little unsure of The Killer’s Oscar potential. Fincher said that some of his work are “movies” (Se7en, Dragon Tattoo) and others are “films” (Zodiac, Mank). He said that The Killer will be a “movie,” so perhaps it won’t be too Oscar-friendly.

Note: Dragon Tattoo got Rooney Mara in for a Lead Actress nomination.  And almost got into Best Picture. Probably the 10th slot. And Se7en got Best Editing, prior to Fincher being regarded as the auteur he is today.

Fassbender is probably going to get in here by virtue of that.

[Shrek Superslam Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 3 Posts: 786 View Predictions]

#1204894931

Lucas wrote:

I don’t know, it would be more easy for Jackman to get in Lead than for McGrath. Even if it’s shameless category fraud.

Well, I’m thinking if the Supporting line-up is as weak as it was this year… then Jackman would probably win there. A win in lead is less likely.

Think about it if A-List Star Hugh Jackman gave a heartrending performance of a father dealing with his son’s depression, then he’d probably have beaten unknown actor Troy Kotsur’s performance as a likeable father.