[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204210035

Best Picture:
Don’t Look Up
Eternals
The French Dispatch
House Of Gucci
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Passing
Soggy Bottom
The Tragedy Of Macbeth
Untitled David O. Russell Project

Best Director:
Wes Anderson – The French Dispatch
Joel Coen – The Tragedy Of Macbeth
Adam MacKay – Don’t Look Up
Guilermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Chloe Zhao – Eternals

Best Actor:
Christian Bale – Untitled David O. Russell Project
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Adam Driver – House Of Gucci
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy Of Macbeth

(The Next 10 (In Order): Benedict Cumberbatch – The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain; Oscar Isaac – The Card Counter; Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom!; Anthony Ramos – In The Heights; Michael Fassbender – Next Goal Wins; Ben Platt – Dear Evan Hansen; Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power Of The Dog; Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon; Andrew Garfield – The Eyes Of Tammy Faye; Adam Driver – Annette)

Best Actress:
Jodie Comer – The Last Duel
Lady Gaga – House Of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Margot Robbie – Untitled David O. Russell Project
Tessa Thompson – Passing

(The Next 10 (In Order): Jennifer Lawrence – Don’t Look Up, Jessica Chastain – The Eyes Of Tammy Faye, Kirsten Dunst – The Power Of The Dog, Ana de Armas – Blonde, Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter, Halle Berry – Bruised, Kristen Stewart – Spencer, Thomasin Mackenzie – Last Night In Soho, Emilia Jones – CODA, Judi Dench – Belfast)

Best Supporting Actor:
Bradley Cooper – Soggy Bottom
Willem Defoe – Nightmare Alley
Adam Driver – The Last Duel
Al Pacino – House Of Gucci
John David Washington – Untitled David O. Russell Project

(The Next 10 (In Order): Richard Jenkins – Nightmare Alley; Jared Leto – House Of Guici; Jesse Plemons – The Power Of The Dog; Rob Gordon – Don’t Look Up; Willem Defoe – The Card Counter; Tituss Burgess – Respect; Benny Safdie – Soggy Bottom; Rami Malek – Untitled David O. Russell Project; Reed Birney – Mass; Jeremy Irons – House Of Gucci)

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Angelina Jolie – Eternals
Frances MacDormand – The Tragedy Of Macbeth
Ruth Negga – Passing
Anya Taylor-Joy – Last Night In Soho

(The Next 10 (In Order): Claire Foy – The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain; Mary J. Blige – Respect; Rooney Mara – Nightmare Alley; Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up; Zoe Saldana – Untitled David O. Russell Project; Marlee Matlin – CODA; Diana Rigg – Last Night In Soho; Anya Taylor-Joy – Untitled David O. Russell Project; Elisabeth Moss – Next Goal Wins; Abigail Breslin – Stillwater)

Best Adapted Sceenplay:
House Of Gucci
The Last Duel
Nightmare Alley
Passing
The Tragedy Of Macbeth

(The Next 10 (In Order): Eternals; Next Goal Wins; CODA; The Power Of The Dog; In The Heights; The Eyes Of Tammy Faye; Tick, Tick… Boom; The Lost Daughter; Dear Evan Hansen; Cry Macho)

Best Original Screenplay:
Don’t Look Up
The Electrical Life Of Louis Wain
The French Dispatch
Soggy Bottom
Untitled David O. Russell Project

(The Next 10 (In Order): The Card Counter; Last Night In Soho; Mass; Respect; The Harder They Fall; C’mon C’mon; Belfast; Stillwater; King Richard; Swansong)

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204194240

It could very possibly happen, but it’s hard to tell. The thing is that I don’t reckon he’d win in Supporting, frankly. It’s rare that an actor who wins in lead, then wins in Supporting in the male categories, at least. The only two times it has happened in the last 50 years is with Jack Nicholson and Gene Hackman… both of  whom are enormously respected in the industry and who won at least one of them Oscars for films that were Best Picture winners. Leo has been in two Best Picture winners – The Departed and Titanic – but wasn’t even nominated for either… Even if there is a thin chance he could have won if he was nominated in Lead for The Departed. But his snub for that film is a whole other conundrum to do with bad campaigning more than anything else…

If he wins again, I reckon it’ll A) be in lead and: B) be in a film that wins Best Picture or is close to it… Or, at the very least, a performance which gets career-best reviews. This is how Day-Lewis and Sean Penn got multiple Oscars in the lead category. And it’s how Hopkins almost won this year. I think it, also, helps if you are playing a real person (Lincoln, Milk) or working with a renowned auteur director (There Will Be Blood). I reckon DiCaprio could pull it off. But there is no way of knowing for certain. If the Roosevelt flick is a big Oscars player, he could win there. Honestly, not entirely convinced he’ll win for Killers Of The Flower Moon, but, given how good the source material is and how great of a director Scorsese is, then I reckon he could get yet another nomination. Alas, we’ll have to see how his career plays out.

He certainly has the ability. But I think he needs to be in the right film at the right time, as well.

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204189975

wolfali wrote:

If Promising Young Woman wins the Original Screenplay BAFTA (which whilst I’m predicting it there I won’t be cocky enough to call it a lock) then I find it hard to believe that <i>The Trial of the Chicago 7 </i>would come out of nowhere at the last second and win. BAFTA + WGA is a pretty lethal combo.

Yeah, there’s no chance that Chicago 7 is going to win.

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204189756

The thing is, right, Nomadland is the only one that has an even remotely clear path to winning.

It’s definitely going to win Director and 95% certain on Adapted Screenplay. It’s quite likely going to win Actress too.

On the other hand, Trial Of The Chicago 7 wasn’t nominated for director. Is probably not winning editing anymore. And Kaluuya is a lock for Supporting Actor, tbh – Sacha doesn’t stand a chance. And it’s not gonna win Original Screenplay now either, I don’t think. And even if it did; that’s only one other Win, which would be unconventional and hasn’t happened that much outside of Spotlight and The Greatest Show On Earth.

I think Promising Young Woman has a slightly stronger chance. Mulligan could potentially win in Best Actress (but, if I’m honest, that category is just a mess at this point) and it’s probably going to win Adapted Screenplay. So, if it won in Picture, that would be three wins in total, which makes sense. The only problem is the complete mess that is the Lead Actress category.  Vanessa Kirby and Andra Day give great performances in movies that don’t live up to their performances. Then, you have Frances MacDormand who has won twice already, but is in the Best Picture frontrunner. Then, you have Viola Davis, who’s win as a black actress, would be historic. The only problem is that her movie is completely stolen from her by Chadwick Boseman, who completely overshadows her. And the film itself is pretty good, but it clearly wasn’t held in high enough esteem for a nomination in Best Picture… Logically, Carey Mulligan makes the most sense. And, in my opinion, gives the best performance in this category. But I have the feeling that the Academy will want to be diverse this year (due to certain events) and they’ll give the Oscar to either Viola Davis or Andra Day. (In my humble opinion, I find it to be quite irksome that they’re most likely award someone to try and cover up the lack of diversity within the industry, which, to me, has always been a bigger problem than OscarsSoWhite or whatever. The reason they are so white is because black filmmakers have a harder time getting films made, even if they are universally renowned like, say, Spike Lee.)

I would, also, say that The Father could have stood a reasonable chance at winning, were it not for Boseman’s performance being so locked. Hopkins is the main point of praise for this film and him having a 0% chance of winning doesn’t help. If he was the frontrunner, he could have helped to bring hype for the film in Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress and, of course, Picture. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen.

Unless something absolutely shocking happens, then Nomadland is winning easily.

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204177652

Ngl, I do feel like both Amsterdam and Don’t Look Up will be players come Awards season. I get the impression David O. Russell and Adam MacKay aren’t very popular here…

But, in regards to DOR, what he has been accused of isn’t quite on the level of a Woody Allen or Polanski or Bryan Singer. I do think he’s a bit dodge, though. I’m not convinced it effects the Award chances so much. Also, unless he does something on this particular production (which wouldn’t be shocking, given his actions on the sets of Accidental Love and I Heart Huckabees, as well as other allegations haha), then I reckon he’s probably in the clear, outside of film twitter, who aren’t really his fans, regardless of his actions. His films are certainly watchable and provide great material for actors. What he is as a person, though, ain’t great. All the same, I’d be surprised if Bale doesn’t get in. He’s usually pretty good and I think all he needs to do to get a nomination is star in a film that’s in the conversation. I don’t think he’ll win, though. Same goes for Robbie, who is sure to put in a likeable turn. I reckon for Supporting actors that John David Washington has a good chance of getting into the category. Not certain he’d win, but if he’s a scene-stealer he has a chance. Besides, I reckon there’ll be some goodwill for him going forward. He’s proven himself to be a very charismatic leading man in Tenet and BlacKKKlansman. He was also, imo, the best part of Malcolm & Marie and showed he could portray a character with a lot of death, whereas his character in Tenet is intentionally the stereotypical charisma-ridden leading man. He could win, but I don’t think he will.

For Don’t Look Up, I’ve read the script. It isn’t as bad as many are saying here. I reckon it’ll be in the conversation for Picture and Original Screenplay. I don’t think the characters are good enough for it to get into the acting categories. Then, again, a lot of MacKay’s films feature improvising. And DiCaprio is the kind of Actor who can make a role his own, therefore I wouldn’t be surrprised if he was the solid 5th place nomination that you get every year (like Oldman or DiCaprio in 2019), who has no chance of winning, or he could be the one everyone anticipates has a pretty good chance of getting in but doesn’t (JDW in Black Klansman and Hanks in News Of The World). All the same, I’d  be shocked if it had a chance at winning Picture.

As for that, I’d offer a look at, possibly, The French Dispatch. Wes Anderson’s last two live-action flicks were very warmly recieved by the Academy. And, if it’s as good as those two, then it stands a very good chance at winning in, at least one of, Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. However, I struggle to see it getting into the acting categories, as I reckon it’ll be ensemble-driven. And, even if there is an outstanding player like Fiennes in Grand Budapest, then, like in that case, it wouldn’t be so likely they’d get in.

The Power Of The Dog is hard to predict. But I feel like it isn’t Netflix’s priority – that’s gonna be Don’t Look Up. But it has the potential to do well. The problem is that, as much as everyone on here seems to love Jane Campion, none of her films outside of The Piano have done remotely well at the Academy. In other words, it could be a bit of a flop with them. Then again, I feel like it might perform well. In which case, though, I’m not buying a Win for it at the moment, unless it is insanely praised.  Because it doesn’t seem to be a complete crowd-pleaser (a la Green Book or Spotlight) nor does it seem to be a surprise auteur virtuoso masterwork (a la Nomadland, Moonlight or Parasite) nor, most importantly, does it seem to be the kind of Great Director gets what they deserve flick (a la The Departed or The Shape Of Water and, to a lesser extent, Birdman or 12 Years A Slave – the latter two’s directors had been rather underappreciated by the Academy, but all of their work up to that point had been extremely acclaimed). Jane Campion has The Piano and a solid set of TV work. But outside of that there isn’t much. She might pull it off, but I don’t see it. Tarantino couldn’t in 2019; I don’t buy her chances in 2021. If it does well, though, I reckon Cumberbatch could get in here – sounds like a good role for him. And I can see Dunst possibly having a great narrative with her work going often unappreciated. I’d say it’s kind of hard to tell with the other cast members right now, but the others could get coattail noms.

Two other films that I feel like will do well, but have no chance of winning Best Picture are Nightmare Alley and Tragedy Of Macbeth. For both, I can totally see the leading men winning Oscars. As many have pointed out, Cooper is inevitably gonna win. And he is again playing to his strengths as an actor – alcoholic, sort-of-romantic lead, with an element of tragedy from what I understand of the original text. On the other hand, Denzel is totally an actor who can get three Oscars. He is on that level and I do think the Academy rate him. I think, given the great director he is working with (Coen), then it is very easy to imagine him giving the Best Performance since his work in Malcolm X. And Macbeth is a beast of a part that a great verbal-actor like Washington could play to stunning effect. I, also, can see MacDormand winning in Supporting Actress for her role as Lady Macbeth, if she misses this year. She’s gotten a great career-kick lately and, like Denzel, she is an actor of such repute that a third Oscar is very believable. The same goes for Blanchett in Nightmare Alley, but I must confess that I don’t reckon she’ll win. My gut-feeling is that Nightmare Alley’s best performance will be Cooper, but there will be some strong supporting work. I reckon there’ll be, at least, one supporting nod. I can easily see Blanchett getting in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we got another double-nom in a Supporting category, with either Rooney Mara or Toni Collette getting in – both consistently great performers. I can see a nom for Defoe or Jenkins, but I don’t think it’s as likely.

Speaking of Defoe, Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter could be his ticket to an Oscar win. They are constant career-collaborators. And Defoe really just needs a great role to win, I feel. He is clearly well-respected in the industry. The same goes for Oscar Isaac, who could snag a Best Actor nom here. I think everyone knows he’s a great actor and he probably should have been nominated at least twice by now (Ex Machina, Inside Llewyn Davis). The only snag here is Paul Schrader. Sure, First Reformed was possibly the best movie of 2018. But… if you look at what he was up to before First Reformed, then you’d have to go back to 2002’s decent Auto-Focus to find a remotely good Schrader film. And, even before then, the only thing Schrader’s ever been consistent at is being inconsistent. I’d love it to be great, because when Schrader’s on form he’s genuinely phenomenal. Alas, I can only hope First Reformed was a good omen of things to come. Because I’d punch the air if we get another great Oscar Isaac-led film – he gets wasted a depressing amount, even in good films.

As for the Ridley Scott ones, I think The Last Duel is harder to predict. It could do well, but, at the same time, it could be a bit dull and quite controversial. I can see Comer, the script and Driver getting in. Damon and Affleck don’t stand a chance, though. I’m not convinced it was a great idea to put Damon or Affleck in a British medieval drama, especially when cast opposite Driver and Comer – who can actually transform into a part. I worry that Damon and Affleck’s movie star presence might, in fact, diminish the movie’s chances. And Ridley Scott is so inconsistent that it has me a bit worried. Still, I live in hope that it’s watchable flick.

On the other hand, House Of Gucci is based on very interesting subject material and it’s pretty much garunteed for craft noms. Additionally, the cast is pretty great. And a lot of them are very hot right now. I can even see Jeremy Irons being in a good position for a Supporting Actor nom. I can even see this being a good contender for Picture. A lot of people have talked about Annette in this thread, but I reckon this is where Driver will get his nomination…. Unless this one flops, then Annette isn’t standing a great chance. And I feel like Driver isn’t going to win, when his opposition are, frankly, in stronger positions than him. Bradley Cooper and Denzel Washington are very much playing to their strengths as actors and are working with directors who are, generally, more consistent than R. Scott. The thing is; I think Driver needs to be in a film that wins Picture for him to win. His problem is that it’s very easy to take him for granted, due to him being more subtle than Cooper or Washington. I feel he’s gonna win at some point, though… Just not yet. Pacino could win here, though. It’s a weird gut-feeling I have, but Pacino feels like the kind of actor to get a second Oscar. And, if he’s good, he could pull a win. Alas, though, I hear he’s stopped filming already, which is interesting. Equally, Jared Leto could get nominated. His role is physically transformative – looks nothing like the Jared Leto we’re used to seeing. And he does have respect in the industry – for instance, his frankly bizarre nomination at the Globes and SAG for The Little Things. Gaga could easily get in, but the more I think about it; the less secure I am in predicting her for a win. As I am with pretty much everyone in Lead Actress – it’s a hard category, right now.

Lastly, I want to talk about Soggy Bottom, which I’m very interesting in seeing how it performs. To me, at least, I feel like, at some point, PTA is gonna pull out a film that the Academy can completely get in tune with. And the ’70s setting, along with the presence of a movie-star in the form of Bradley Cooper, is making me think this could be more accessible to the Academy and general audiences – think, more Boogie Nights than The Master (and I love both of them films equally!). I’m not convinced it’ll win, but I could see PTA getting a Best Director win here, if it’s a more mainstream hit than PTA’s other works. Additionally, if Cooper doesn’t win for Nightmare Alley, then he could easily win here. Throughout his career, PTA has done wonders for movie-stars – Burt Reynolds, Tom Cruise, Adam Sandler – and super-respected actors – Day-Lewis, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Joaquin Phoenix. Don’t be surprised if he pulls the same thing with Bradley Cooper here – remember, how close Reynolds and Cruise were to winning in those supporting categories and without such a narrative as Bradley Cooper is building up.

As for other films, I’m not sure it’s worth predicting. There’s plenty that haven’t been mentioned here that could be the ones we’re constantly talking about in December. Films like Passing or Last Night In Soho could do great, but it’s hard to tell, without watching them ourselves, how they would play to the Academy. With all the films I’ve talked about above, there is some evidence with which I can give you backbone to my arguments. With Edgar Wright, for instance, there is nothing I can really say outside of me being extremely happy if he creates a film with enough depth for the Academy to be interested – which, frankly. has been the problem with his filmography thus far. I hope this can be his auteur breakout. And I’d much prefer the film if it was a bit more “pretentious” perhaps than his other films.

At the moment, though, these are my thoughts.

(Soz for waffling haha)

Soggy Bottom

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204169227

A great peformance, but it was kind of category fraud in the same way as Brad Pitt or Mahershala Ali. And, like those two, I think he deserved in win in this category for his performance – controversial as that take is haha.

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204159959

schmids wrote:

But will any of them even get enough material? The cast is so big surely there aren’t any ‘lead’ roles.

I reckon it’ll be a bit like how in American Hustle you have kind of three main people (Bale, Robbie and Washington), with some strong supporting players (I’m guessing Rami Malek is gonna be one?).

All the same, I reckon it gets at least one acting nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised if that was for Bale. And it could get quite a few technical noms due to its period setting.

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204151390

Matthew_Porter wrote:

Do we think Zhao’s Eternals has a chance? The buzz says it’s excellent and a huge step forward for Marvel. Zhao will likely go straight from winning Best Director this year into the release of that movie so the momentum could be quite strong if the movie is as good as many claim it is.

I don’t imagine it winning, but who knows?

I could very much imagine a Best Director nomination. The thing is, though, a lot of it depends on how good Eternals is and how good (or how accessible) the competition is.

This year it’s not like we have a Tarantino, who, whenever he uses well-known actors, usually gets Oscar noms.

It’s pretty hard to predict.

In fact, I’m fairly sure that the only two films universally predicted at the beginning of last year that were actually nominated were The Trial Of The Chicago 7 and Mank (can’t remember if people considered The Father or Promising Young Woman outside of acting…) – the latter of which hasn’t been this juggernaut of a Best Picture winner that some had anticipated.

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204143654

Oscars 2022 – Acting Cat. Stupidly Early Predictions:

Best Actor – Denzel Washington (The Tragedy Of Macbeth) (Alt: Adam Driver (The House Of Gucci))

Denzel is realistically one of the few actors who could foreseeably get a third Oscar. His respect in the industry is huge and arguably unparalleled by any other actor in his age range. Admittedly, as a few others have said, the most recent Coen Brothers films haven’t been as good, but Ballad Of Buster Scruggs seems to have been embraced by the Academy, which is a good sign. However, the impression I get is that it might just be another retread of the same old play that most in the Academy have seen. Let’s hope not, but… if that is the case, then this feels like it could be Adam Driver’s moment. He missed his Oscar for Marriage Story, but if this film is a hit, then this could be another opportunity. His role is very beefy I get the impression of, as well.

Best Actress – Lady Gaga (The House Of Gucci) (Alt: Margot Robbie (Amsterdam))

Best Supporting Actor – Bradley Cooper (Untitled PTA Anderson Project) (Alt. Al Pacino (The House Of Gucci))

Best Supporting Actress – Frances MacDormand (The Tragedy Of Macbeth) (Alt. Ruth Negga (Passing))

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204143580

Igor_Alves wrote:

I think MGM’s main priority is still up in the air, they’ll probably analyze all the receptions before deciding. Maybe they’ve already tested an early PTA’s cut and decided it’s not big contender material, but they still have to see how Gucci and George Miller’s turn out.

Hm…. I don’t know. The thing is about a lot of these comments on PTA’s films are that, whilst none of them have ever been a real major craft or “Best Picture” contender (outside of There Will Be Blood), they have always (outside of his first film – Hard Eight) been at least contenders for the Oscars. And the only two that have missed actual acting nominations are Punch-Drunk Love and Inherent Vice – the latter of which still got a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nods. (Both of those were still nominated at the Globes). Bear-in-mind, as well, that Punch-Drunk Love’s central (and best) performance is from Adam Sandler – who I’m fairly sure the Academy don’t like… They’ve never been fans of broad-comedy performers (Jim Carrey not getting nominations for Eternal Sunshine, Truman Show or Man On The Moon is evidence of this). Also, Punch-Drunk Love was prior to PT Anderson becoming as well-renowned an auteur as he is now. And Inherent Vice is generally regarded as the weakest of PT Anderson’s ouvre outside of Hard Eight.

So, I predict that if the film is of a quality that one usually associates with PT Anderson, then, at the very least, Bradley Cooper will very easily score a Best Supporting Actor nomination. And, honestly, if PT Anderson’s track-record with Hollywood leading men is anything to go by (i.e. getting career-best performances out of not only “thesbian” actors like Joaquin Phoenix, PSH and DDL, but, also, from Movie Star actors like Tom Cruise and Burt Reynolds – Bradley Cooper probably in the middle-ground between the two, like DiCaprio & Gosling), then I wouldn’t be surprised if Bradley Cooper got an Oscar win here.

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204116929

Ingrid Bergman – Murder On The Orient Express (Honestly,barely remember the performance lol)

Olympia Dukakis – Moonstruck (Why? I don’t even remember her character)

Kim Basinger – LA Confidential (Seriously, what did she do that was Oscar-worthy in this movie?)

Jennifer Connelly – A Beautiful Mind (yawn-worthy performance…. and Connelly has been much better and more worthy… even the year before for Requiem For A Dream)

Melissa Leo – The Fighter (Gets out-acted in the same film by Amy Adams…. And everyone else in this category is better.)

Don Ameche – Cocoon (Probably, the worst one on this list. He pretty much does nothing of any interest in this film. You could probably even remove his character and the film would be just as good.)

Jack Palance – City Slickers (The definition of a career Oscar win.)

Michael Caine – The Cider House Rules (Maybe hate is stretching a bit… but, come on, this guy, who had won already, wins over Tom Cruise’s and Jude Law’s greatest performances, as well as Michael Clarke Duncain’s iconic portrayal in The Green Mile. And what is so special about his performance here? Well, he just does a really dodgy American accent and acts somewhat sympathetically, I guess….)

George Clooney – Syriana (Worthless win. Unironically, one of George Clooney’s weakest performances. He’s better in the same year’s Good Night, And Good Luck and that isn’t even worthy of an Oscar nom. Kinda depressing that he didn’t get nominated for O Brother, Where Art Thou? or Out Of Sight, but wins here over a superb Jake Gyllenhaal performance and a truly great (and actually supporting) performance from William Hurt.

Cher – Moonstruck (Film is just a pretty good romantic-comedy. Nothing that special. Cher does nothing remotely Oscar-worthy here, unlike competitor Glen Close)

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady (They really will give you an Oscar, if you are a careeer-pretentious actor and you play a historical figure…)

Julianne Moore – Still Alice (The Academy really likes giving out career-awards, huh?)

Brie Larson – Room (Completely undeserved. Frankly, a rather dull performance. Room was overrated anyway and stole places in Picture and Director and a win in Lead Actress from Carol. :—()

Humphrey Bogart – The African Queen (What do you do when you forgot to give a great actor a completely deserved Oscar on five seperate ocassions (Maltese Falcon, Casablanca, Big Sleep, Sierra Madre, In A Lonely Place)? I tell you what you do… You give it to him for a decent rom-com over, arguably, one of, if not the, greatest performance in the history of cinema.)

Rod Stieger – In The Heat Of The Night (How is it possible for them to give an Oscar to the wrong actor, when they could have gone for the far more deserving co-lead in the same category?)

Tom Hanks – Philadelphia (A very underwhelming and rather dull performance. Denzel is better in the same film. Day-Lewis or Liam Neeson should have won, to be honest for performances, which have really stood the test of time.)

Jamie Foxx – Ray (Very meh movie + Pretty good (if not great) performance = an Oscar win. Side-Note: This is the year when DiCaprio got completely snubbed (he deserved for Wolf, but McConaughey was almost as good in Dallas Buyers Club, so I’m not as bothered by it).

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (Very dull performance. Should have won the year before, if the Oscars really wanted to give him an award. Poor Ryan Gosling and Leonardo DiCaprio getting snubbed this year. 🙁 It doesn’t help that even Jeff Bridges (who’s really giving a Supporting Actor performance here) would have deserved this over Firth. For my money, out of the nominees, either Eisenberg or Franco deserved the win.

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (Look. I think DiCaprio is the greatest actor of his generation, but…. come on, this is easily in the bottom half of his performances. This was a poor year on the whole, but it would have given them the perfect opportunity to give a win to Fassbender, who was sadly snubbed for a win-worthy performances in 2011 with Shame.)

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (The MOST awards bait movie of the decade, outside of the Post. Oldman is so much better in Mank and Tinker Tailor than this dull, albeit well-shot, slog of a film. They could have given a win to superb newcomers giving iconic performances (Kaluuya & Chalamet) or given an Oscar to one of cinema’s greatest actors final performances (Day-Lewis, who is possibly getting as close to There Will Be Blood as he could ever possibly achieve). But nah – give it to thefella wearing all the make-up and putting on the funny accent, who’s playing a historical figure… Typical!)

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (I don’t hate this film as much as most people here, but, if you really wanted to give it to an actor wearing tons of make-up, putting on an accent and playing a historical figure, you’d give the award to Bale’s memorable and brutal performance as Dick Cheney, in Adam McKay’s highly-underrated Vice, which has a killer monologue at the end? No. You go for the same “Oscar-bait” set-up, but done in the most uninspired way possible and remove a lot of Freddie Mercury’s life. Ugh. So annoying. Doesn’t help they ignored Bradley Cooper’s best performance yet and didn’t even nominate Ethan Hawke’s unforgettable performance in First Reformed.)

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204104579

Dr. Manhattan wrote:

With all due respect, this seems like codswallop to me. It would be surprising for them to give it to someone giving their first Oscar-level performance? I’m sorry, did Jean Dujardin give an Oscar-level performance prior to The Artist? How about Eddie Redmayne prior to The Theory of Everything? Rami Malek had Mr. Robot on television, but when it comes to motion pictures, did he do anything that was Oscar-worthy before Bohemian Rhapsody? Since you’re discounting Get on Up and Marshall for Boseman, I’ll take a guess and say you wouldn’t consider films like The Lincoln Lawyer, Mud, and Magic Mike as being Oscar-worthy, which would mean Matthew McConaughey didn’t give an Oscar-caliber performance prior to Dallas Buyers Club. We’ve seen actors win Best Actor without any prior Oscar-caliber work before, so that argument makes no sense. What’s even more confounding is that, later in your post, you say that Riz Ahmed could’ve won if Boseman were alive. Has Ahmed given an Oscar-level performance in a film prior to Sound of Metal? What would make him different from Boseman, if he were alive? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not definitively claiming that Boseman would be winning even if he were alive. It’s possible that he wouldn’t have won if he were alive. However, asserting that Boseman couldn’t have won if he were alive simply because this was Boseman’s first Oscar-level performance is simply ridiculous.

Well, you have to bear in mind with those performances there were very different contexts.

The Artist was the best-Picture frontrunner.

And The Theory Of Everything and Bohemian Rhapsody were based on very real, very significant and very well-regarded public figures.

As for McConaughey, I’d actually say his work in The Lincoln Lawyer would have been, perhaps, worthy of an Oscar nomination. And, even more so, would his work in Killer Joe. He had built up a resume of very good, if not necessarily GREAT work, in the years prior to Dallas Buyers Club. He’d also made a conscious effort to move away from studio fare and work with more auteur directors. The result was an exceptional level of admiration, with a narrative being built for him over the course of several years…

Without his death, unfortunately, there isn’t a particularly phenomenal narrative for Boseman. His film is most certainly not the Best Picture frontrunner and it isn’t even in the Top 5, realistically. His role isn’t one of those defined by the “method acting” approach. And his trajectory up to this point has (outside of the MCU) consisted of pretty mediocore studio fare, which has only really been raised by his natural screen presence. And it isn’t exactly as if he is some well-regarded actor who has kind of faded into the background. There has rarely been any great acclaim for his work, up until this point. However, as his work is genuinely good here, I could see him getting a nomination, without the narrative. But I think it would be in the kind of… idk… Christian Bale in American Hustle sort of slot (even though Bale was a higher profile actor and was, most likely, in one of the films in that year’s Oscar’s Top 5).

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204077977

He probably wouldn’t have won. I mean, he was phenomenal in Ma Rainey. But it would be surprising for them to give it to someone who was just giving their first Oscar-level performance. (No matter how much I love him in Marshall and Get On Up, those films just weren’t good enough, if that makes sense.) Ma Rainey is a great film and he is phenomenal in it. I doubt he wouldn’t have been nominated.

But, as for a win….

Well, I feel like that’s more complicated.  Even if I would probably give him (or Delroy Lindo) the win myself.

I would imagine that the narrative for Ahmed would be similar to Casey Affleck for Manchester By The Sea and I reckon that would probably have bumped him above Chadwick, who’s narrative would be more along the lines of him getting his first really, really meaty part. And Anthony Hopkins narrative has been talked about on here a lot, so I probably don’t need to go over it – but it’s never surprising when an actor considered as legendary as Hopkins wins multiple Oscars.

On the whole, my guess is that Hopkins would probably have won, but it wouldn’t be a clean sweep. And I wouldn’t have ruled out a shock-win for Ahmed or, possibly, Boseman.

It certainly wouldn’t be as certain as it is now.

But I’m glad Boseman is being rewarded. To me, it is one of the great tragedies of cinema that Boseman died so young. He had an incredible range and an unparalleled energy on screen. And don’t be surprised if, in the years to come, his role in Ma Rainey, becomes renowned as one of the greatest performances in recent memory.

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

Twitter: https://twitter.com/pierce_sir
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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204059727

RIDLEY SCOTT wrote:

Deadline Hollywood said David Fincher, Michael Fassbender and the writer of SE7EN are making a New Thriller

Ayy. Seems with this and Next Goal Wins that Fassbender is making a career-comeback after the slump of drivel he did after Steve Jobs.

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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[Sir Pierce Joined: Feb 7th, 2019 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1204059724

wolfali wrote:

demy leans towards. As evidenced by Joaquin Phoenix’s win, through Carey Mulligan’s potential win, Parasite‘s BP win, Moonlight‘s BP win. No longer are we in the era where having an Oscar bait biopic is what you need to win (that’s not to say Oscar bait biopics don’t win anymore because look at Green Book

Hm… Interesting point. But I think Joker and Parasite, in particular, were very much embraced by audiences. And Promising Young Woman and Moonlight were, also, accessible, even if the subject mater is more deep and treated in a more uncomfortable way than say a Green Book.

My impression of Annette, given the director’s past work, is that it will probably be a great film, but it won’t be a major Oscar player. (And, in all honesty, I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a case where Driver would deserve an Oscar). I think there’s a chance for Driver to get the sort of Banderas in Pain & Glory or Defoe in At Eternity’s Gate kind of slot.

Comparatively, Denzel seems like the easy frontrunner to me. There are few parts meatier for an actor than that of Shakespeare. And Denzel has an unparalleled on-screen gravitas. I think there is a chance this might be one of, if not the, best works he will ever do. And it’s the Coens as well, who have gotten career-best performances out of Oscar Isaac, George Clooney, Frances MacDormand and Javier Bardem, to name a few.

A very annoying young man, who loves cinema. 🙂

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