So Morgan Wallen’s 7 Summers is gearing up to be a smash as far as country songs go… he’s sounding like our potential safe alternative to Megan Thee Stallion for BNA. Gabby and Doja are the alt choices for those two, then there’s Phoebe Bridgers.

Miley’s song doesn’t seem like a lead single, it doesn’t have the gimmick to land big on week 1, but i think it could be a slow burn on the charts. It’s a really good song!

Drake’s is … so boring. That beat is so repetitive and this is just a Nike collab. There will be a new single that is in line with In My Feelings or Nice For What that will…[Read more]

yeah…. that levitating remix is a fun experiment, but it’s not going to make the song a hit. it’s just a club track, the original is a better produced song.

victoria monet is getting some great reviews! too bad she’s not getting the publicity she needs.

Watermelon Sugar is definitely being positioned for a big jump this week. I don’t see it eclipsing ROCKSTAR, but number 2 isn’t out of the question. Then it’ll be a matter of if the Cardi/Megan song gets enough traction to debut at number 1, but I’m betting it doesn’t and Watermelon Sugar hits number 1 the next week.

Billie’s song sounds a lot like her other slow tracks, maybe it has a hook when we hear the whole thing, but the 20s snippet is kind of boring.

I definitely see Before You Go as a boring contender. Also, I’ve been calling Gabby for a while, she seems like the obvious choice for country artists and the white folk vote, but I still do this Megan has a chance as well. There’s no bigger new artist right now than her and the rule changes ensures she’s eligible. It would be a near unprecedented…[Read more]

The very lowest Taylor will get is the high 80s. I’d be surprised if she gets a red review, which would be the only thing to bring her to low 80s. Metacritic is weird. 4x 80 reviews equals an 84 for some reason… and she has a few 100 reviews that will keep her high up.

I feel “my future” sounds like it’ll be sassier. I want something upbeat for sure. I bet it’s commentary on what the future will be for a young person like her.

New Billie Eilish track coming next week!

I don’t think the committee will block this one. I think with the reviews and the chart success we’re seeing, along with the mid-summer release date and no competition this summer… she’s a shoo-in for a nomination. The 1 is getting a lot of streams because it’s the first song on the album, exile has the bon iver feature and cardigan has the…[Read more]

What’s everyone’s choices so far for AOTY? Just to get a sense of tastes on this thread?

For me:

Brittany Howard – Jaime
fka Twigs – MAGDALENE
HAIM – Women in Music Pt. 3
The Highwomen – The Highwomen
Jessie Ware – What’s Your Pleasure?
Perfume Genius – Set My Heart On Fire Immediately
Phoebe Bridgers – Punisher
Taylor Swift – folklore

Eager!! Give it a day, but I’m betting somewhere in the 3-5 range. Number 1 isn’t totally out of the question, but it doesn’t have the build up buzz and the whole album was released, so people won’t be all listening to just that one track. It needs about 400 pts to reach number 1, as the top 10 is a bit stale.

After being left out of AOTY twice, folklore will be her welcome back to the category. It really seems like a move forward into an adult sound with the right collaborators. The reviews are incredible. It’ll sell well. It’ll still be in people’s minds by fall. It’ll get the younger and older vote. It’s down to The Weeknd and Taylor in the lead with…[Read more]

Can we also talk about how Kanye was saying he’s releasing an album tomorrow (unlikely)? She really has it out for him!

I feel it’ll be a Folk-Pop album. I expect it goes for the Pop categories, but we’ll see! I doubt it’ll be Alternative. If anything it’ll be in the Folk, Americana or Country categories, but those are categories that have some gatekeepers and I see her being more successful by going back to Pop with this.

Here are my AOTY picks so far. This is a REALLY solid year surprisingly after losing a season of new music with spring releases stretching into summer. The list below covers off a variety of genres and demos. They are all well received critically and did as expected or better commercially (waiting on The Chicks’ numbers).

Fiona Apple – Fetch the…[Read more]

With The Killers rescheduling for the end of August, only Alicia Keys and Sam Smith are still pending from COVID delays. Both of which were underperforming on their singles and buzz. A good reason to rethink the albums a bit I’m guessing. Sam is already renaming it and you can bet he’ll throw a few ballads on there that could perform better than…[Read more]

it’s going to be hard to deny the chicks…

I can only see The Weeknd, The Chicks, Fiona Apple or The Highwomen winning AOTY. Gaga stands an outside chance by having moderate commercial and critical success and overall goodwill / name recognition from the industry. I really think it’ll be The Chicks though. The reviews coming in are really solid and the team behind it are Grammy-loved.