colinpowis
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March 11, 2022 at 11:56 pm #1204842176
FLEE is very likely to win best Doc as the refugee crisis has loomed large since the war in Ukraine and the voters just love to virtue signal
March 11, 2022 at 11:52 pm #1204842164Cumberbatch is going to win Bafta and the Dawg will win BP ..ergo, is the Dawg really going to win BP at Oscar without any acting wins as BSA is likely to go to Troy ?
With the British bloc behind him and the momentum of a BP win likely I can easily see Cumberbatch upsetting Will Smith
If you feel that Dawg wins BP then it’s sensible to predict Cumberbatch for best actor IMHO
ReplyMarch 11, 2022 at 11:48 pm #1204842158FLEE will very likely upset SOS at BAFTA on Sunday as the refugee crisis has loomed large since the invasion of Ukraine and the voters love to ”virtue signal”
Moreover, SOS is a very American type film that may not necessarily appeal to Brit sensibilities
ReplyMarch 10, 2022 at 10:54 am #1204839691I see a potential upset in best Documentary as FLEE seems like the place they would reward a film about refugees that is looming large in the media here in Britain due to the war in the Ukraine
Moreover, Summer of Soul is a very American type film that may not translate well into British sensibilities
March 5, 2022 at 12:13 am #1204832137This is still the same logic that “Olivia Colman has Bafta in her bag because her nationality is British”. I mean sure, it could be Dog sweeping the Bafta because it is a top 2 contender after all. And Richard could very well go empty handed because the movie is at best no.5 in BP. But the factor that causes these results wouldn’t be “Benedict is British” or “Richard is too American”.
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The obvious difference with Olivia Colman is that she was not in a movie that was expected to win BP at both BAFTA and OSCAR ..there’s an obvious home town advantage for Brits at BaftaI thought Colman actually won BA at Bafta ?
March 4, 2022 at 8:54 am #1204831248I’m a believer that Benedict Cumberbatch will win the BAFTA, but it’s definitely not out of the realm that Will Smith wins here. If his narrative is that huge like people are saying, there shouldn’t be an issue with him winning here in a sweep, especially since his movie got four nominations.
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Well then, the Dawg got 8 noms so what are you trying to say ?March 4, 2022 at 12:27 am #1204830758Dog was made in NZ with a British/ NZ/Oz cast and NZ Director so I don’t know what you’re talking about ..it’s not an American movie at all except that it was supposedly set in 1920s Montana
King Richard will win ZERO BAFTAS
March 4, 2022 at 12:06 am #1204830717I really want Garfield to win the Oscar but Get real people and move out of the stan circle to undermine Smith! If Smith loses just BAFTA and wins GG,CC and SAG, there is no reason to think Cumberbatch will win over Smith at the Oscars. (All the Colman,Hopkins,Rylance comparisons are invalid because KR overperformed like TPOTD at the Oscars). Just another lazy argument to want to not predict Smith to win. The arguments that “if Smith is winning,then he should have no problem winning BAFTA” is so dope because BAFTA has such a British bias,Smith isn’t overdue at BAFTA in any capacity and King Richard does not have British sensibilities at all,rather it’s a very American film. Everyone knows Benedict Cumberbatch is winning the BAFTA. We need to stop giving the BAFTA over-credit in a year where their Top 2 was haywire. Just like people are overreacting to the SAG winners, similarly people are giving way too much heat to Bafta in a year where they were historically non-aligned with the Oscars.
By your logic people, if Hinds wins BAFTA then Kodi would be done,right? Or if Balfe wins BAFTA, Dench would be winning the Oscar, right?
===========================================================EXACTLY… Smith is never going to win BA at BAFTA ; not only is Benedict overdue TPOTD is very popular here in the UK while ”King Richard” was very poorly received ; moreover, it’s a very American type movie that doesn’t translate well into British sensibilities…..In fact King Richard is very likely to go home empty handed on Bafta night
February 26, 2022 at 12:51 pm #1204818685Really want to know where peoples confidence that CODA goes 2/2 at SAG winning all of its nominations. At most it wins 1 category.
EXACTLY ..it will likely win for BSA and lose cast
I’d wager that the star studded cast of DLU wins ; its the largest cast and the most seen….voters will reward Coda with Troy Kotsur
February 25, 2022 at 11:54 pm #1204817985I think the simple fact is that due to (1) the changing nature of AMPAS membership and (2) the SAG/AFTRA merger, SAG nominations and winners are of significantly less predictive value for Oscar prognostication purposes than they were prior to 2016. As Scott Feinberg explained in a THR article yesterday, “in recent years, SAG merged with AFTRA (the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists), resulting in an influx of everyone from TV meteorologists to radio talk-show hosts; more recently, the guild began admitting TikTokers, too. Furthermore, the Academy has made a concerted effort to become a more international organization, with members abroad accounting for 12 percent in 2015 but 25 percent today. In other words, the people who pick the SAG Award noms — or almost any of the noms from precursor awards… and the Oscar noms are no longer very similar.” (Emphasis added.) A number of people have commented that due to the jury system, the BAFTA awards are less important in determining Oscar winners than they used to be. The same is true about the SAG awards.
And THIS is exactly why a populist, most wildly seen movie like DLU will win best ensemble
February 25, 2022 at 9:27 pm #1204817891IF YOU HAVEN’T READ IT, THIS COLUMN BY TARIK KHAN ON WHY DLU WILL WIN
1. It’s a classic ensemble film.
“Don’t Look Up” features the largest credited cast of this year’s SAG Award nominees, and allows its actors to interact together across multiple scenes. It follows the same formula of many past ensemble honorees, like 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” 2000’s “Traffic,” 2001’s “Gosford Park,” 2005’s “Crash,” 2009’s “Inglourious Basterds,” “The Help,” 2012’s “Argo,” 2015’s “Spotlight,” 2016’s “Hidden Figures,” 2019’s “Parasite” and reigning champ “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” And while the largest cast doesn’t always win, the smallest casts usually lose. “Don’t Look Up” boasts an impressive roster of 14 actors. Its closest competitor is “Gucci” with just seven. The oversized ensemble gives “Don’t Look Up” an undeniable advantage.2. It features the biggest names.
Leonardo DiCaprio. Meryl Streep. Cate Blanchett. Jennifer Lawrence. Those four celebrities alone have earned more than 50 combined SAG Award nominations. Each has been individually honored, as well. Throw in other familiar faces like Timothée Chalamet, Jonah Hill, Ron Perlman, Mark Rylance and Tyler Perry and you have a cast that’s hard to beat. Even the star-studded “House of Gucci” pales in comparison. With all those big names, “Don’t Look Up” shines the brightest.3. It boasts the showiest performances of any ensemble.
SAG Award members almost always go for showy performances over subtle ones. Hence the omission of Oscar frontrunner “The Power of the Dog” in the best cast sweepstakes. The power of “Don’t Look Up” here is its theatrical style. Cast mates are constantly acting for the camera. They’re often hyperactive. At other times hysterical. And almost always hilarious. The acting in the other SAG Award entries is considerably less dynamic. Thespians will look at “Don’t Look Up” as the most dramatic, and therefore the most deserving.4. It’s definitely the most widely seen of the five nominees.
When it comes to SAG Award success, the most important thing is getting a film to be screened. Historically, box office blockbusters (or at least, modest hits) have almost always performed better than little indie fare. That helps to explain why “Apollo 13” beat “Sense and Sensibility” when the first ensemble award was launched. That’s why “The Birdcage” soared past both “The English Patient” and “Shine” the following year. That’s why “Inglourious Basterds” saw glory while “The Hurt Locker” and “Precious” didn’t. As streaming has become more prevalent, the key is accessibility and availability. And guild cardholders have been able to easily look at “Don’t Look Up” since its Netflix release in December. And they haven’t been looking away. The film has been smashing records, and is now the most second-watched Netflix movie of all time. Has any other ensemble aspirant experienced as many eyeballs? This leads me to my final point.5. There’s probably nothing else that can beat it.
“Belfast” is a small period film with a much smaller cast. The fact that it scored only one individual nom for Caitriona Balfe doesn’t bode well. The luck of the Irish may not be on its side. “CODA” is another sweet offering with a terrific but tiny team. As I previously wrote, the best place to reward it may be with a supporting actor trophy for scene-stealer Troy Kotsur. “King Richard” may be the weakest challenger here. While leading man Will Smith may walk away with the SAG Best Actor title, “King” is hardly a match for the competition. And finally, there’s “House of Gucci.” It’s the only nominee not in the Oscar Best Picture lineup. No Oscar also-ran has claimed this award since “The Birdcage” more than a quarter of a century ago. And “Gucci” seems to have lost much of its glitter. That leaves “Don’t Look Up” looking like the winner. Consider this your warning of a giant awards astronaut – swiftly heading towards collision with a most unsuspecting awards derby.February 25, 2022 at 9:22 pm #1204817885DLU wins best ensemble and CODA is rewarded with Troy Kotsur in a BSA win
THIS to me seems the most likely scenario … DLU has the largest, star studded cast of all, and crucially, it is the most widely seen movie of all … small casts don’t usually win … they can reward CODA in BSA and then go with DLU in ensemble and have all those stars on their stageFebruary 25, 2022 at 8:51 pm #1204817865From the GD experts and Editors it seems CODA is likely to win best ensemble , but Tarik Khan recently wrote a good column on why DLU will likely win
February 25, 2022 at 12:46 am #1204816608I’m baffled as to why so many of the editors/ experts have BENATE REINSVE as winning best actress at BAFTA .. it’s a foreign language film and she didn’t even win BAs at the LOndon Film Critics .. GAGA seems like the obvious winner to me (shrug)
Can someone enlighten me as to why British voters would pick Benate ?
January 10, 2022 at 9:38 am #1204712626I hope you are right but I have to say this: if it wins it will DESERVE to win! Every single scene is superb. Every single performance is superb. Every single musical number works. The rumble is actually terrifying, as it should be. It is the best adaptation of a Broadway musical I have ever seen. Spielberg’s direction is perfect.
Not only does WSS deserve to win BP, Spielberg deserves to win BD for that achievement … if Campion were a man do you even think she’d be the favourite to win BD ? Just look at what Spielberg had to do to hold that movie together and then compare it to Campion’s low budget movie… how many cast members are there in the movie ? It looks like something that a bunch of film students would come up with on a very limited budget
Spielberg is at the very pinnacle of his career and I doubt there’s any living Director could create a magnificent movie .. Campion is a dwarf in comparison to such a living legend
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