[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204594581

tiermakeracco17 wrote:

Most academy members don’t watch animated films, they just ask their kids which movie was their favorite and vote for it. I don’t think li’l Johnny will be hyped for Flee.

This is the sad reality. Hope this changes.

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204594577

tiermakeracco17 wrote:

BELLE reportedly has some catchy songs, but it doesn’t seem like GKIDS is interested in running it for Best Original Song. I think they’re missing an opportunity here.

I agree with you here.

“U” or “A Million Miles Away” could snag a nom if they campaign it well.

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204532236

My October Predictions

*I added MetaCritic scores (MetaScore) for your reference

Frontrunners
“Belle” (GKids) 89
“Flee” (Neon) 88
“Luca” (Disney/Pixar) 71
“The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix/Sony) 80

Contenders
“Cryptozoo” (Magnolia Pictures) 79
“Raya and the Last Dragon” (Disney) 75
“Vivo” (Netflix/Sony) 64
“Where Is Anne Frank” (No Distributor?) 50

Longshots
“The Boss Baby: Family Business” (Universal/DreamWorks) 40
“Spirit Untamed” (Universal/DreamWorks) 49
“Wish Dragon” (Netflix) 59
“Paw Patrol: The Movie” (Paramount) 50

For Waiting (Will be updated if reactions, reviews, or if watched)
“Back to the Outback” (Netflix) – December
“Encanto” (Disney) – December
“Hotel Transylvania: Transformania” (Sony) – October
“Inu-Oh” (G-Kids) – Moved for the Next year 2022
“Ron’s Gone Wrong” (Disney/Fox/Locksmith) – October
“Sing 2” (Universal/Illumination) – December
“The Addams Family 2” (MGM/UAR) – October
“The Deer King” (GKids) – December

References:
https://www.metacritic.com/

Oscars 2022: Best Animated Feature Predictions

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204532190

tiermakeracco17 wrote:

Average Academy member: “Let’s see, “Best Animated Feature”… hmmm, I haven’t seen any of these. Oh, screw it, I’m just going to vote for the Toy Story guys. NEXT!”

100% Accurate!

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204532185

wrote:

Belle is now set to be released for 14 January 2022. Does that put it out of the running for this year?

Though Jan 14, The world premiere is July 15. It counts.

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204532176

Yes, we care.

tiermakeracco17 wrote:

Does anyone even care for this category?

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204380138

ReddWhite wrote:

One thing that I find possible is that the Disney movies actually split votes this year.

We know that the only time they lost recently was against Spiderverse, and, while that was a huge cultural phenomenon, it also helped that Disney not only had 2 nominees that year (Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet), but both movies had lukewarm reception compared to their predecessors; in other words, there was no fruntrunner, allowing for a Disney vote-split.

We also know that, like, half the Academy have their children vote on the movies for them, and obviously the kids are gonna choose Disney, or they just vote for Disney because. I actually have a theory that this is why Klaus lost; had Frozen II been nominated, we’d actually have a similar 2018 situation: heavy public and critics favorite (Klaus) vs. 2 Disney sequels that had underwhelming public and/or critical reactions (Frozen II and Toy Story 4). I’m quite sure that the Disney votes would split. But when Frozen II got snubbed, it sealed the deal, at least for me: all of the Disney votes, so the majority of voters, as the past few years have shown, went to one movie.

Anyway, back to my point, if Encanto is as much as a public favorite as Luca is (seriously, I’ve never seen so much stanning for a Pixar movie since, idk, Up), and since Raya‘s nomination would be their reward (its public reception was much more muted), they could theoretically split votes and allow for another public favorite to win, like Mitchells vs. the Machines or a dark horse, like Belle or Flee.

But Luca is probably winning, so yeah.

I agree with you, and that’s why Frozen II wasn’t nominated and as Klaus for not winning the award during the 2018 period. During also that time, Toy Story 4 had a majority of mixed reception but still won. I also agree with the influence of “voters’ children,” which is the reason why 11 Pixar/3 Disney movies have won the BAF since 2001. Although some are exceptionally breathtaking. While this may be true, during the 2002 period, I think Spider-Verse wasn’t the first movie that defeated the Disney/Pixar movies. The academy saw the beauty of Spirited Away and took home the award for BAF 2002, defeating Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet (both have mixed receptions and are produced by Disney.)

I have watched Flee (Several Studios), and I think, at any rate, it might bag a nomination for Best Documentary Categories (Feature or Short?) and Best Animated Feature (and with this, I agree with the Dark Horse you mentioned.) However, if the world premiere of Belle (Studio Chizu) this December, could be a level of Your Name (CoMix Wave Films), A Silent Voice (Kyoto Animation), or Spirited Away (Studio Ghibli) [audience impact and critics reception], a nomination is secured and has a shot of taking home the award being the second animation from Japan winning the BAF since 2002. If the producers of Belle (2021) will be smart in submitting their movie as a Japan submission for Best International Film, it might not win but has a shot of securing the nomination. (If and only if the premiere of Belle will be a hit in December.) Princess Mononoke (Studio Ghibli) and Weathering with you (CoMix Wave Films) were submitted but didn’t win nor it wasn’t shortlisted for Best Foreign Language Film (This was the old term for Best International Feature since 2018-19 was implemented?.)

I am also hoping for Luca, with that ending I can feel a Call Me By Your Name momentum (imo), and it is still an ending worth remembering for this 2021 period. Although I am worried that Luca will be streaming first in Disney+ (as said by one source: https://www.indiewire.com/2021/04/pixar-staff-slams-disney-moving-films-streaming-1234633910/.) Indeed Pixar recently won Best Animated Feature by Soul since the Academy allowed films with a scheduled theatrical release to compete for streaming (Due to the Pandemic.) At this moment, it is uncertain if the Academy will maintain the 2022 Oscar rule. If they don’t, and the release Luca continues as scheduled (Disney+ first, then theatrical release) It might have a chance to not qualify for the BAF. (Fingers crossed I hope Luca will be nominated.)

If Encanto will be a hit (which everyone is anticipating as the only and last animated film and huge contender for 2021) then all of what I said was useless. Disney has an upper hand (plus the split vote you mentioned) unless the “Dark Horse” will win. (Tbh, this year is a tight competition for BAF, but I am hoping for the best that Flee or Belle will take home the award) let’s see what will happen.

Note* everything is imo.

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204380093

My August Predictions
*I added MetaCritic scores (MetaScore) for your reference

Frontrunners
“Belle” (GKids) 89
“Flee” (Neon) 91
“Luca” (Disney/Pixar) 71
“The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix/Sony) 80

Contenders
“Cryptozoo” (Magnolia Pictures) 79
“Raya and the Last Dragon” (Disney) 75
“Vivo” (Netflix/Sony) 64
“Where Is Anne Frank” (No Distributor?) 50

Longshots
“The Boss Baby: Family Business” (Universal/DreamWorks) 40
“Spirit Untamed” (Universal/DreamWorks) 49
“Wish Dragon” (Netflix) 59

For Waiting (Will be updated if reactions, reviews, or if watched)
“Back to the Outback” (Netflix) – December
“Encanto” (Disney) – December
“Hotel Transylvania: Transformania” (Sony) – October
“Inu-Oh” (G-Kids) – November/December
“Paw Patrol: The Movie” (Paramount) – August
“Ron’s Gone Wrong” (Disney/Fox/Locksmith) – October
“Sing 2” (Universal/Illumination) – December
“The Addams Family 2” (MGM/UAR) – October
“The Deer King” (GKids) – December

References:
https://www.metacritic.com/

Oscars 2022: Best Animated Feature Predictions

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204367263

Berni wrote:

Sour is the best female selling album

With this, she can win Best New Artist already.

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204367257

Quite excited for Dune and Hans Zimmer? Yes, please.

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#1204361892

https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/festival/actualites/articles/belle-linterview-de-mamoru-hosoda-1

Belle 2021, Trailer.

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[BD Joined: Jul 24th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 12 View Predictions]

#1204361875

nielsal_ wrote:

I have watched Belle, Luca, and The Mitchells vs. the Machines but I am still waiting for Encanto. Each of them can be nominated for the award but out of the three, Belle was breathtaking. I think it’s worthy of winning.

After Mirai being nominated last 2018. Belle does not deserve to be overlooked. It is a cinematic masterpiece by Mamoru Hosoda. I agree with you.

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