[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205355895

-10 Triangle of Sadness, All Quiet on the Western front

+10 Tár, everything everywhere

Everything Everywhere All at Once (475)

All Quiet on the Western Front (440)

TÁR (135)

Triangle of Sadness (75)

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

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[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205255854

Oscars predix overall.

Picture

– The Fabelmans
– Everything Everywhere All At Once
– Banshees of Inisherin
– Top Gun Maverick
– Elvis
– Tár
– All quiet on the western front
– The Whale
– Avatar: the way of water
– Triangle of Sadness

Director

– Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
– Daniels – everything everywhere all at once
– Todd field – Tár
– Martin McDonagh – banshees of inisherin
– Edward Berger – all quiet on the western front

Best actress
– Cate Blanchett – Tár
– Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
– Danielle deadwyler – till
– Viola Davis – The woman king
– Ana De Armas – Blonde

Best Actor

– Brendan Frasier – The Whale
– Colin farrel – banshees
– Austin Butler – Elvis
– Bill nighy – living
– Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Best supporting actress

– Kerry Condon – banshees of inisherin
– Jamie Lee Curtis – Eeaao
– Angela Bassett – black Panther
– Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness
– Hong Chau – The Whale

Best supporting actor

– Ke Huy Quan – EEAAO
– Brendan Gleeson – The banshees of inisherin
– Barry Keoghan – banshees
– Paul Dano – Fabelmans
– Judd hirsch – the Fabelmans

Original Screenplay
– Everything Everywhere All At Once
– The Fabelmans
– Banshees of inisherin
– Tar
– Triangle of sadness

Adapted screenplay
– Women Talking
– Glass Onion
– The Whale
– all quiet
– Living

Cinematography
– Top gun maverick
– Elvis
– All quiet on the western front
– The Fabelmans
– empire of Light

Editing
– Everything Everywhere All At Once
– Top Gun Maverick
– All quiet
– Banshees
– Elvis

Sound
– Top Gun Maverick
– Avatar: way of the water
– Elvis
– All quiet on the western front
– batman

Production design
– Babylon
– The Fabelmans
– all quiet on the western front
– Avatar the way of water
– Elvis

Costume design
– Babylon
– Elvis
– Black panther
– Woman king
– Mrs Harris goes to paris

Makeup
– The whale
– Elvis
– Blonde
– The Batman
– all quiet

Visual effects
– Avatar the way of water
– Top gun maverick
– all quiet
– Batman
– Nope

Score
– Hildur- women talking
– John Williams – the Fabelmans
– Justin hurwitz- Babylon
– Alexander Desplat – Pinocchio
– all quiet on the western front

Animated
– Pinocchio
– Turning Red
– puss in boots
– Marcell the shell
– Minions

Original song
– top gun
– Pinocchio
– Black panther
– RRR
– tell it like a woman

Documentary
– Fire of love
– All the beauty and the bloodshed
– all that breathes
– Navalny
– Moonage daydream

International

– All quiet on the western front
– Close
– Decision to leave
– the quiet girl
– Argentina 1985

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205136008

federico rubachin wrote:

altough after that tweet he put the movie 11 in his update best picture predictions https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-picture-predictions-1235306911/

babylon is 20 on this, below 13 lives lmao

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205121929

With how many people are throwing around the word Masterpiece in reactions and reviews, I wonder if Netflix should try and get the first non Disney best picture nomination for an animated movie with Pinocchio.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205113819

I have a specific obstacle with Women Talking’s chances and it’s an odd one but…

You know when you’re watching something on streaming and it gets to a scene in darkness everything gets pixelated and crushed? It happened with Game of Thrones a lot. Well, watching the trailer for Women Talking, I noticed that a lot, even on good internet and a good screen. It had so much pixelation. The color grading is one thing in a controlled cinema environment, but on streaming it’s another.

With streaming digital screeners becoming the norm, I wonder if this might hurt peoples watching experiences.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205111129

I’m wondering if Babylon is being overpredicted and is closer to this years Nightmare Alley than anything else

– Followup to massive Oscar’s success, much anticipated, on prediction lists

– Gorgeous promising trailer

– Eschews festival run for December premiere

Now this is where we get into my speculation

– Good but not great reviews: not BP winner material

– hit and miss with critical precursors

– Undeniable tech presence

– Loses widely predicted acting slots as consistent momentum is lacking

– Gets a weak best picture nomination carried by techs

Is this likely? No, but I can see it. I think Margot is the only acting nominee I am very confident in, which is more than Nightmare Alley had (Blanchett should’ve gotten in over Dench though, delicious performance).

Babylon will be considerably showy and writerly but so was Nightmare Alley with all that patter and those quite frankly insane shots.

I’d love to be proven wrong, but I have a bad gut feeling Babylon isn’t the rival to The Fabelmans some hope it is. Plus judging by the script this is gonna ALIENATE people, some walkouts will occur from stuffy voters. I’ll have fun (I actually love Nightmare Alley) but this isn’t La La Land.

 

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205107579

This is the thread for 2023’s Oscar ceremony, not the 2022 one. Move on nerds.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205103760

With White Noise doing better at NYFF (should’ve premiered there), maybe this gets in as a lone Adapted Screenplay nominee?

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

X

Reply

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205094052

Look, I love Cate Blanchett, she might be my favourite actress, and Tár is my most anticipated movie of the year. That having been said … Michelle Yeoh or Viola Davis would be the sort of wins that would make a lot of people very happy, and would be hopeful. Living in a world where Yeoh has an Oscar sounds pretty fucking cool, and would 1000% be deserved.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205093639

Norma Jeane wrote:

It’s a shame, Michelle Williams is supporting, the industry is looking to take down Ana De Armas. I’m heartbroken.

The movie already did that, Ana isn’t even top 10 in actress now.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205076230

With Glass Onion doing well I have two questions

1) Is Empire of Light even going to get in the peoples choice 3? Word for Bros, Woman King, and Glass Onion reactions have been very positive, plus The Fabelmans is still to go and The Whale could benefit from Frasier goodwill. Given this film is going for a populist “critics don’t like it but we do” thing, missing here would be a blow.

2) With Janelle Monae coming out as nonbinary what category will they be campaigning under? They have gotten raves.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205072143

Tár in the Best Picture lineup is looking pretty plausible. With Actress, Director, Screenplay and maybe even Cinematography looking like likely nominations… I think we’ve got a storm brewing. Plus The Son and Bardo aren’t getting in picture, so a space for it is available.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205069782

I wonder whether Pakistan will have the guts to submit Joyland or not, given it’s gotten acclaim and a good festival run but the subject matter of gender and sexuality might be the sort of stuff they won’t pick.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

X

Reply

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205064380

Shrek Superslam wrote:

I don’t see Women Talking winning, but I can see it getting in, for sure. Reviews are very good and seems like it will win Adapted. possibly S. Actress, too, but I think that it’ll default to Williams, in the end. however, I don’t see it getting into Best Director, which might impact its chances…. Polley is currently third place out of the films seen, so I suppose she could get in, but it’s very dependent on how films like Babylon and Empire Of Light do… it could be a well liked movie, but I don’t see it being a Green Book/CODA type of crowd pleaser that wins without Director.

Polley is getting in Director imo. I think her name is the top of conversation, and some other talky films of small scale with little flash (Spotlight, room, Manchester by the sea) have gotten director nominations in recent memory. There is a lot of respect around her; plus restraint can be appreciated by that branch sometimes in nominations – see them prioritising Hamaguchi over Villeneuve.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 548 View Predictions]

#1205062737

Bonehead wrote:

I’m going to wait until at least NYFF before I dump White Noise for Picture Don’t Look Up, Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close and The Blind Side all had sub-70 metacritic scores. If White Noise manages to enter “the zeitgeist” it can make it in Picture. If I were Netflix I would ramp up the marketing and play to its strength as a potentially controversial conversation starter, like some of the films mentioned above were. At least they know not to place their focus on Bardo now.

I’ll counter and say that all the films sub 70 you listed are populist films that had crowd support  to make up for the lack of critical support. I know it’s weird to call Joker a crowd pleaser but it was a massive audience hit. That isn’t going to be the case with Bardo, that kind of ambitious auteur passion project needs critical support to do well at Oscars.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork