[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204800531

JV wrote:

Here’s the leaked Babylon script https://gofile.io/d/48Ft4c I’m sure he needed to tone down the movie, but I’m still very skeptical of this being an awards contender. Chazelle isn’t Scorsese to get a borderline NC-17 movie at the Oscars.

This script is straight ass, some of the worst written sex scenes I’ve read in a script. I hope he’s making huge tonal changes.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204775958

If Gaga is missing then I’m the Queen of England because there’s no way that’s happening in either case.

She is very clearly top 2 at BAFTA, hasn’t missed a beat for big precursors, and House of Gucci has been very well campaigned. I know the ridiculous shit she says is annoying people, but it is keeping her on peoples minds. She is a contender to win, not someone at risk of being snubbed a nomination, get goddamn real.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204759251

Throwing box office numbers and viewing numbers around is absurd, the only viewers that matter are 900 people in the Academy. This isn’t the People’s Choice Awards.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204755970

I will say even though zie doesn’t have much of a role, iris menas being an out nonbinary actor playing a trans role in a best picture nominee will be nice. Still a very long way from making up for the decades of shitty treatment  for trans people in hollywood, but this is a nice first.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204725396

FreemanGriffin wrote:

Kristen Stewart’s snub by SAG is why I think it is very possible for TPOTD to lose. It’s the critics darling movie and very much like Roma vs Green Book voters don’t care to be told which film is good for them and that they must vote for. I absolutely believe that West Side Story or Belfast is going to win BP, and just like 2018 there will be a BP/Director split – although I am not completely convinced of that even. People are always telling me I am wrong. Rami Malek was definitely not going to win! I told everyone he was going to sweep everything except for CC. Olivia Colman is going to be snubbed at SAG – I knew that wasn’t going to happen. Jennifer Hudson is out, no way is she getting a SAG nomination. She got the SAG nomination just as I said she would. The only thing that has tripped me up this awards season is Kristen Stewart getting snubbed at SAG – didn’t see that coming, I had resigned myself to her getting nominated despite not liking her performance. I am waiting for Jan. 27th, to see who gets the PGA and DGA nominations. We won’t know the winners of those awards until late February. We have a long ways to go and anybody who is telling you that one of the three films is definitely going to win is deluded. There are 3 films that can win the Oscar this year: Belfast, The Power of the Dog, and West Side Story. I think Belfast or West Side Story are more likely than The Power of the Dog. You can disagree but do so with something more than just “you’re wrong”. I know TPOTD can still win, but I have different reasons for thinking so than others do. I think it’s being forced on voters as the inevitable winner and that can cause resentment/backlash and it comes down to how large of a backlash will it get? Hoping it’s La La Land vs Moonlight all over again, or Roma vs Green Book. I know others disagree with me, fine, but this is my belief about it.

How is Spencer connected to the power of the dog… unless…

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204710646

Belfast doing a trial of the Chicago 7 – peaking in festivals, getting a screenplay kiss of death at the globes, missing director, and being accepted as a non frontrunner and missing everything – sounds about right.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204708142

I’m beginning to think PTA misses Director. Unlike phantom thread, I’m not sure how many craft categories it gets in – editing and cinematography are question marks at best. I also don’t think it’s getting an acting nomination. Licorice pizza I get huge “peaked with critics” vibes. It’s still comfortably in picture, but director either Hamaguichi (international directors have had a great run lately) or… hate to say it… McKay (the academy loves him, and don’t look up is the most traditionally baity movie he’s made in terms of cast and message) gets in instead for my prediction.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204699636

Fuck it, West Side Story is my frontrunner. It’ll do well in the preferential ballot, it’ll get techs and supporting actress, and it will play well with voters. It’s what people said Belfast would be.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204693287

OscarWatcher1971 wrote:

Plenty of people thought Nomadland was boring. The film that’s not allowed to be criticised (Moonlight) was boring to some. BORING is such a pathetic criticism of a film. A Jane Campion adaptation of a Thomas Savage classic was always going to be a slow burn, that’s what the story is. Unless you want her to change the story, then she’d criticised for changing the story. Yes, it’s not for the masses, but neither is Nomadland, Shape of Water & I’d argue Parasite as well. AMPAS is NOT the People’s Choice Awards folks. Nor should it be. TPOTD’s main 2 contenders are both box office bombs so the “crowd pleaser” narrative for them is in strife. It is interesting that some people feel compelled to post repeatedly about why TPOTD can’t win, whilst forgetting that we still have the big Netflix campaign to go, and many are conceding it wins Director, Screenplay, an acting award or 2 and maybe a tech yet are adamant it can’t win the big prize. It can.

 

I only disagree with calling parasite a non crowd pleaser. It was a very big box office success especially as an international film, it’s got a lot of comedic elements, and it crossed over. It’s a film that will play well with any crowd that can get over the one inch barrier.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204692903

So Belfast isn’t a crowd pleaser, the power of the dog isn’t a crowdpleaser, the lost daughter isn’t a crowd pleaser, West side story isn’t being seen by crowds to please…

it’s almost like this year isn’t the 2019 Oscar season where Roma was beaten by Green Book. It’s almost like this year isn’t a year where typical pre COVID power dynamics apply in the same way.

and if you think the crowdpleaser wins, Spider-Man No Way Home wins best picture. Is anyone willing to predict that here?

The best picture winner in 2020 was a chilly slow burn drama.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204691448

What the fuck is this thread

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204690646

Cage has that Hawke/Colette energy of someone that is beloved amongst critics but will go not a step further than that in the academy. Damn shame, but it happens.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204690632

Stefania wrote:

Now every time a woman, a minority, an LGBTQ person, a disabled person etc wins an award they’re going to be accused of having won only because of that, instead of acknowledging that new sensibilities are interesting and bring novelty to the art. Please.

 

YES! Thank you for bringing sense to this discussion. I want one day for a trans actress to get an academy nomination, but I know idiots in this forum will get pissed and use euphemisms of “oh that person only got nominated because”. Just say what you feel instead of dancing around it to gain some high ground you don’t have.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204688486

If sag likes DLU, I think the proof will be in the pudding. Ensemble is pretty near a lock, but I think in order for me to buy it as a top 5 contender I need DiCaprio to happen at SAG. In order for me to buy it as a #1 contender, it needs to go beyond those two.

And DGA ain’t happening.

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork

[Cordelia Joined: Jul 15th, 2018 Topics: 17 Posts: 487 View Predictions]

#1204686436

film123 wrote:

When Death on the Nile derails Branagh’s chances in Director and Original Screenplay>>>>

god willing Death on the Nile is Branagh’s Norbit

My Favourite Albums

Oil Of Every Pearl's Un-Insides - SOPHIE

Hounds of Love - Kate Bush

Since I Left You - The Avalanches

Twin Fantasy - Car Seat Headrest

Vespertine - Bjork