Forum Replies Created
April 24, 2021 at 11:53 am #1204219497
So how confident are the people who predict Husavik in song? It’s the single toughest category to me. Speak Now has the prestige, nomination in acting but Husavik has the passion.April 23, 2021 at 12:58 pm #1204217676
Does anyone remember tallies from last year or have the data? because if for example Mendes was beating Bong or two years ago Close was ahead of Colman on those ballots then these are meaningless.April 18, 2021 at 6:21 am #1204206968
In these categories you just have to bet on the most popular ones. They ALWAYS win. The film with most IMDB votes and biggest campaign.
In Animated Short you have Netflix If Anything Happens I Love You as the overwhelming frontrunner, because its the most widely watched by far and very emotional.
In Live Action short Two Distant Strangers was released on Netflix just before Oscar voting began. It’s very topical and again , has fun concept and it’s the most widely watched movie by far (4k votes on IMDB) and has big stars campaigning it on Instagram and Twitter. It should easily win. The Letter Room has Oscar Isaac but he does not give a shit about campaigning. So why people would even watch it.
Short Doc is the most contested category. Right now i’m predicting Concerto is a Conversation because of two things. Firstly, Ava Duvernay is the producer who is campaiging a lot for the film. Secondly, it’s the film about artist, and these tend to win here. Oh, and it’s the guy from Green Book, and everybody loves Green Book in Academy. Lovesong for Latasha can be tough competition though. because it’s Netflix and very timely. It’s close one, but i’m leaning Concerto.April 10, 2021 at 5:15 pm #1204190912
Nobody cares how you did.i come here for analysis, valuable comments regarding oscar race, not the constant brag how you all did with scores.April 9, 2021 at 2:41 pm #1204188931
There is absolutely no way Mank loses Production Design. Doesn’t matter how many people aren’t fans of the movie, it has swept literally almost every single production design award with both critics and industry. It’s up with Zhao in Director and Boseman in Actor as the top 3 biggest locks of the evening
Kaluuya is way bigger lock than BosemanMarch 31, 2021 at 2:10 pm #1204168140
Emily Blunt is good comp for Bakalova.March 31, 2021 at 2:06 pm #1204168135
With 200k voting for SAG Bakalova seems like an obvious SAG pick. Showy performance in block-buster film. Borat was probably seen the widest of all oscar contenders.March 26, 2021 at 5:57 pm #1204160290
Can anybody explain to me, why Time is such heavy oscar favourite at Gold Derby? I mean, i loved the film, but can’t see it winning. It’s so artsy and really nobody saw it. Look at IMDB. It’s not your typical winner at all here. It’s probably 4th.
Octopus Teacher is the populist, touching doc that often wins here (Free Solo for example). People adore it and it’s on Netflix. Has great word of mouth. Pretty easy pick here. It’s also gonna win BAFTA. I would put Crip Camp second because of Obama and it’s emotional and available on Netflix.March 26, 2021 at 5:50 pm #1204160281
It’s going to be Sound of Metal because of the sound nom. It’s not showy editing in per se, but the sound effects make it feel showy if that makes sense. Father is the spoiler though.March 14, 2021 at 3:29 pm #1204125069
Ok, so looks like 4am Pacific time Predictions center will be shutdown. 13 hours to go.March 14, 2021 at 3:21 pm #1204124922
Chris, what time you shut down Predictions center? It’s important!March 14, 2021 at 10:17 am #1204119927
I have Seyfried out, because i can’t find good reason she missed SAG. Wasn’t underseen or late-breaking. Wasn’t indie/small/foreign. Its tough to come up with precedent for her nomination. Like, Matt Damon for the Martian? He won Globe though. Octavia Spencer? But she was in BP winner. Anyone agreeing?February 13, 2021 at 5:58 am #1204040075
That Best Film lineup is exactly what I have as the top five for the Oscars, with Minari in fifth and that is clearly the fifth of the nominees here. There is no telling what was in sixth, so that gives me hope that we have the same steep drop-off at the Oscars, resulting in the same lineup of only five Best Picture nominees.
(An obvious answer for sixth place is Mank, but it is telling that it got everything that it could, yet still missed Film here for Minari with no other nominations. We have seen this elsewhere with Mank this season where it is not really a factor in Picture, but dominates in nomination count.)
How on point these nominations are as Oscar predictors in Picture and Screenplay makes the divergence in the acting categories all the more glaring. The Daniel Kaluuya snub is especially bad. Late-breaking contenders regularly miss SAG, but not AACTA, be it Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street, Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight or the Little Women. Missing AACTA after getting SAG and then getting nominated for the Oscar is nothing new, but going on to win the Oscar is unheard of. We also saw Judas and the Black Messiah on five longlists here, so they were aware enough of it that a win-competitive performance should have been able to be nominated over all of the filler nominees that we got in the category, not to mention that they nominated Kaluuya for Get Out. Even with vote-splitting, Sacha Baron Cohen has no competition here.
This is a huge blow to Delroy Lindo and Paul Raci, especially since I have already written off the former at BAFTA and with Chadwick Boseman being nominated in supporting here for Da 5 Bloods. I have moved Gary Oldman up to fourth, Lindo down to fifth and Steven Yeun down to sixth.
You will still be early if you join me on this Olivia Colman train that I have been riding forever. I feel better about having Maria Bakalova in second too. AACTA nominated Minari in Film, plus Awkwafina and Song Kang Ho last year. They previously nominated Glenn Close for The Wife (and Amy Adams for Arrival), yet Close is snubbed now.
I cannot explain the Adarsh Gourav or Pete Docter nominations. Those are the most offbeat nominations that we have ever seen from AACTA. Basically everyone else has been an Oscar frontrunner or Australian.
This group did not even nominate Yalitza Aparicio and they still awarded Roma, so Nomadland is definitely winning with those Swankie and David Strathairn nominations. I honestly do not remember Swankie, so I cannot believe that the chatter for her has materialized into an industry nomination. Good to see The Father and Promising Young Woman also dominant as I have been saying.
Wait, you still have Lindo ahead of Yeun for Oscars? That doesn’t make any sense. Lindo is missing everywhere, while Yeun made SAG and has TOP5 film. He is clearly in fifth right now.