Forum Replies Created
February 15, 2020 at 2:48 pm #1203347989
Vincent Curatola as Johnny Sack should have been nominated and won!
Nice pick! Any particular season(s)/episode(s) that you think he should have won for?
I think his strongest episodes were “Mr. & Mrs. John Sacrimoni Request” from Season 6 pt. 1, and “Stage 5” from Season 6 pt. 2.January 31, 2020 at 7:57 pm #1203323089
I do think that all of the frontrunners will get their Oscars this year, but if I had to predict an upset, I would say it might happen in the Supporting Actress category. Scarlett Johansson and Margot Robbie both had strong years with multiple Oscar films under their belt, and if Florence Pugh can win BAFTA, that could translate to an Oscar.
Zellweger could potentially lose since she already has an Oscar, Joaquin Phoenix could lose if the Academy doesn’t feel the need to award him for the same role that they awarded Heath Ledger for, and Brad Pitt could lose if they feel like awarding an even more veteran actor (I know, I’m grasping at straws).January 26, 2020 at 5:03 pm #1203309908
So Klaus is the favorite to upset then? I’m not super knowledgeable when it comes to this category, so thanks for the info.
I’m still not sure if Toy Story 4 loses the Oscar, but I am predicting Klaus to win BAFTA. They don’t heavily favor Disney films (Lego Movie and Kubo both won there), and Klaus being Spanish gives it an advantage with International voters.
I would still bet on Toy Story 4 winning the Oscar and BAFTA. Like the Oscars, every BAFTA winner for Best Animated Feature was also nominated for PGA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Annie. Toy Story 4 is the only BAFTA nominee that meets those credentials.
Every time an upset happened at the Oscars (Happy Feet, Big Hero 6, Brave), they all had nominations at all 5 major precursors. All of Toy Story 4‘s competitors are missing key nominations.
I wouldn’t say that BAFTA doesn’t favour Disney films. 8 of the 13 winners have been Disney or Pixar (Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up, Toy Story 3, Brave, Frozen, Inside Out, Coco). Plus, every one of the Pixar films that have won the Oscar have also won the BAFTA, and Toy Story 4 is a Pixar film.
Big Hero 6 not winning BAFTA wasn’t unique to BAFTA. That year, PGA, Critics Choice and BAFTA went to The Lego Movie, which wasn’t nominated at the Oscars. The Golden Globes and the Dreamworks-biased Annie Awards went with How to Train Your Dragon 2.
If Klaus wins BAFTA, I suppose it could be seen as most poised to upset Toy Story 4, but it would still be a long shot.
I think Klaus winning the Annie should be taken with a grain of salt. Only 8 of the last 13 Oscar winners were Annie winners (Annie went with Cars over Happy Feet, Kung Fu Panda over WALL-E, How to Train Your Dragon over Toy Story 3, Wreck-It Ralph over Brave, and How to Train Your Dragon 2 over Big Hero 6). If there is any precursor that doesn’t favour Disney as much, I would look no further than the Annie Awards.
In fact, Annie has the worst track record predicting the Oscars at the last 13 ceremonies:
BAFTA matches Oscar = 11/13
Golden Globes match Oscar = 10/13
Critics Choice matches Oscar = 10/13
Producers Guild matches Oscar = 9/10
Annie matches Oscar = 8/13
Another factor to consider that could really help Toy Story 4 is that Frozen II is not nominated at the Oscars (despite being nominated at BAFTA, PGA, Golden Globes, Annie and Critics Choice). If the Disney workers/supporters had been splitting their votes at these awards, votes of the Frozen II supporters could carry over to Toy Story 4.
Don’t forget that the Oscars are not as open to voting for Netflix films to win just yet, so that could hurt Klaus‘s chances.
I don’t think being an international film helps Klaus either. The only international film that has won was Spirited Away, often cited as one of the best animated films of all time. Plus, the other nominees that year were Lilo & Stitch, Ice Age, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron and Treasure Planet, none of which had the universal acclaim that Spirited Away had.January 26, 2020 at 1:42 pm #1203307578
The real question is, if Toy Story 4 gets upset, which film will it be: Missing Link, Klaus, or I Lost my Body? I feel like all 3 have a chance now.
Every Oscar winner for Best Animated Feature has also been nominated (and most have won) at BAFTA. The only films nominated at both this year are Toy Story 4 and Klaus. BAFTA also nominated Frozen II and Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon.
Here is a list of all Oscar winners for Best Animated Feature since 2006 (when BAFTA and the Golden Globes both introduced their animated categories), and how they fared at the precursors (winners in Bold, nominees in regular typeface):
2006 – Happy Feet – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2007 – Ratatouille – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2008 – WALL-E – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2009 – Up – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2010 – Toy Story 3 – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2011 – Rango – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2012 – Brave – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2013 – Frozen – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2014 – Big Hero 6 – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2015 – Inside Out – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2016 – Zootopia – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2017 – Coco – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
2018 – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – BAFTA, GG, Annie, CC, PGA
So far, every winner for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars has been nominated for the top prize at ALL of the major precursors: BAFTA, the Golden Globes, Annie, the Producers Guild, and Critics Choice.
As a reminder, here are how this year’s Oscar nominees have fared at these precursors:
Toy Story 4 – PGA, CC, Annie, GG, BAFTA
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World – PGA, CC, Annie, GG (no BAFTA)
Missing Link – PGA, CC, Annie, GG (no BAFTA)
I Lost My Body – CC, Annie [ind.] (no PGA, GG or BAFTA)
Klaus – Annie, BAFTA (no PGA, GG or CC)
While Toy Story 4 hasn’t been sweeping the precursors with wins like it should be, it is the only movie to be nominated at every precursor, which is important.January 26, 2020 at 12:02 pm #1203306747
As a whole, I think the Oscars got it right for which films should and shouldn’t have been nominated, but while the Cars movies are not among Pixar’s best, Cars 3 was a great return to form (after the studio went drastically off-course for Cars 2), and possibly better than the first film. A nomination for Best Animated Feature would have been nice, especially over The Boss Baby.
In my opinion, Monsters University and Finding Dory weren’t bad, but certainly weren’t as good as Rotten Tomatoes scores would suggest (80% and 94%, respectively).
The Good Dinosaur would have also been a worthy nominee for Best Animated Feature, but it still remains among one of the studio’s weaker films.January 20, 2020 at 9:03 pm #1203295934
I would say the ones that matter the most would have to be the ones with the best track record of lining up with the Oscars’ Best Picture winners.
Of the last 20 years, here is how each precursor’s top prize has lined up with the Oscars’ Best Picture winner:
PGA – 14/20 (70%)
DGA – 14/20 (70%)
CC – 14/20 (70%)
WGA – 11/20 (55%)
GG – 11/20 (55%)
SAG – 10/20 (50%)
BAFTA – 9/20 (45%)
ACE – 8/20 (40%)
To break the tie with PGA, DGA, and CC, I went back another 4 years (since the Critics’ Choice Awards have been around). There were no further matches for Critics Choice, 2 more matches for PGA and 2 more matches for DGA.
If I look at the past 30 years, here is the total for the top 2:
PGA – 21/30 (70%)
DGA – 21/30 (70%)
So, I would say the two most critical precursors for the top prize are easily PGA and DGA.January 20, 2020 at 8:41 pm #1203295901
Technically you could add a GG win for Parasite, since Foreign Language films aren’t eligible for BP.January 19, 2020 at 11:04 am #1203292444
Pulp Fiction is Tarantino masterpiece. He didn’t direct True Romance, but it’s his screenplay. It might be my favorite film with Tarantino’ s influence.
A huge fan. His quirkiness is mostly what I find the most endearing about him. He’s wild-assed in a conventional way…..
True Romance is great. If I included it, I would have had it in my Top 3.January 16, 2020 at 6:03 pm #1203288445
My personal picks:
GoodFellas (1990) – Best Actor (Ray Liotta)
Boyz n the Hood (1991) – Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Ice Cube)
The Silence of the Lambs (1991) – Best Supporting Actor (Ted Levine)
Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991) – Best Picture
Mrs. Doubtfire (1993) – Best Picture, Best Actor (Robin Williams), Actress (Sally Field)
The Lion King (1994) – Best Picture
(at the risk of losing all credibility…)
Dumb & Dumber (1994) – Best Original Screenplay
Toy Story (1995) – Best Picture, Best Director (why not?)
Casino (1995) – Best Picture, Best Director
Mother (1996) – Best Actress (Debbie Reynolds), Best Actor (Albert Brooks), Best Original Screenplay
That Thing You Do! (1996) – Best Original Screenplay
Jackie Brown (1997) – Best Actress (Pam Grier), Actor (Lead or Supporting for Samuel L. Jackson), Best Adapted Screenplay
The Truman Show (1998) – Best Picture, Best Actor
The Big Lebowski (1998) – Best Picture, Director(s), Actor (Bridges), Screenplay
Requiem for a Dream (2000) – Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay
Almost Famous (2000) – Picture, Director, Original Song
Meet the Parents (2000) – Screenplay, Actor (De Niro)
Memento (2001) – Best Picture, Best Director
Mulholland Dr. (2001) – Best Picture, Best Actress (Naomi Watts), Best Original Screenplay
I Am Sam (2001) – Best Supporting Actress (Dakota Fanning)
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002) – Best Supporting Actor (Andy Serkis)
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003) – Best Supporting Actor (Sean Astin)
Lost in Translation (2003) – Best Actress (Lead or Supporting for Scarlett Johansson)
School of Rock (2003) – Best Original Screenplay, Original Song
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003) – Best Picture
Finding Nemo (2003) – Best Picture
Controversial choice, but I think that The Passion of the Christ (2004) should have been nominated for Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress (lead or supporting for Maia Morgenstern).
Napoleon Dynamite (2004) – Best Original Screenplay
Kill Bill: Vol. 2 (2004) – Best Actress (Uma Thurman)
The Incredibles (2004) – Best Picture
The Departed (2006) – Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actor (Jack Nicholson)
Ratatouille (2007) – Best Picture
No Country for Old Men (2007) – Best Actor (Lead or Supporting for Josh Brolin)
The Dark Knight (2008) – Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay
Gran Torino (2008) – Best Picture, Actor
The Wrestler (2008) – Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Original Song
Let the Right One In (2008/2009) – Foreign Language Film
Avatar (2009) – Best Actress (Zoe Saldana)
Mary and Max (2009) – Best Animated Feature
Inglourious Basterds (2009) – Best Actress (Lead or Supporting for Melanie Laurent)
District 9 (2009) – Actor (Copley)
Black Swan (2010) – Supporting Actress (Mila Kunis)
Drive (2011) – Best Picture, Director, Actor (Gosling), Supporting Actor (Brooks)
Django Unchained (2012) – Best Supporting Actor (Samuel L. Jackson, Leonardo DiCaprio)
Argo (2012) – Director
Bernie (2012) – Best Actor (Jack Black)
The LEGO Movie (2014) – Best Animated Feature
Whiplash (2014) – Best Picture, Director, Actor (Miles Teller)
Gone Girl (2014) – Best Picture, Director
Nightcrawler (2014) – Best Actor (Gyllenhaal)
Black Mass (2015) – Best Actor (Depp), Make-Up
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017) – Best Director
All the Money in the World (2017) – Best Picture
BlacKKKlansman (2018) – Best Actor (Washington)
Green Book (2018) – Director
The Farewell (2019) – Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Foreign Language Film
Toy Story 4 (2019) – Picture, Adapted ScreenplayJanuary 15, 2020 at 9:43 pm #1203287149
Since others have ranked them, so will I:
1. A New Hope
2. The Empire Strikes Back
3. Return of the Jedi
Great & under-appreciated (9/10)
4. The Last Jedi
Very good (8/10)
5. Revenge of the Sith
Enjoyable, but overrated (7/10)
6. The Force Awakens
7. Rogue One
Not bad, but Alden Ehrenreich is no Harrison Ford (6/10)
Fun, but dialogue and acting is cringe-worthy. Most of this film felt unnecessary to the overall story arc (6/10)
9. The Phantom Menace
Plot-holes, bad pacing, characters not used to their full potential (5/10)
10. The Rise of Skywalker
Boring, horribly acted, poor storytelling (3/10)
11. Attack of the ClonesJanuary 13, 2020 at 3:52 pm #1203282442
40% of this year’s acting nominees have already won acting Oscars. Has there ever been this many former winners nominated in a single year?
Kathy BatesDecember 15, 2019 at 12:40 pm #1203238474
Oh man, I just realized that getting rid of Dan when they did means there was no tribal council at six people, so Dean won’t get a chance to make a fool of himself with the fake legacy advantage. Lauren in the last couple of episodes from thinking about making her own moves and really solidifying her game and her place to being worried that Tommy wants to cut her out. He does, but she didn’t seem ready to do anything about it.
If Dean makes the final 3, he will more than likely mention to the jury that he missed his chance to play the “real” legacy advantage, and boast about his copy that he played earlier. Thankfully, if that happens, Jamal will clear things up and point out to the jury that both legacy advantages were useless, giving us all the chance to see Dean make a fool of himself. Although they may give him points for the clever move of making a copy, even if it was a copy of a powerless advantage.November 6, 2019 at 4:50 pm #1203169136
I loved this movie. While the first one will always be my favourite in the franchise, Toy Story 4 is an easy and worthy runner-up, in my opinion.
Is it possible that we are all underestimating Toy Story 4’s chances at a Best Picture nomination?
While the lack of BP nomination for Inside Out isn’t promising for Toy Story 4, the last animated movie to get nominated for Best Picture was Toy Story 3. Oscar voters must love the Toy Story movies. Plus, it is one of the best-reviewed Pixar movies ever, and aside from Inside Out, the most acclaimed Pixar movie since Toy Story 3 scored a BP nomination.
At what point was it obvious that Toy Story 3 was going to get nominated for Best Picture for 2010? Precursors can be misleading when it comes to animated films in the BP race. The Golden Globes no longer nominates animated films for Best Picture.
I do think Pixar has a very good chance to return to the Screenplay category as well.
I also think Toy Story 4 has a decent shot at an Original Song nomination (“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy”). It is Oscar darling Randy Newman again, and after all, this is the only category at the Oscars that EVERY Toy Story movie was nominated in.