[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204514831

1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

2. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

4. Judi Dench, Belfast

5. Ruth Nega, Passing

ALT: Meryl Streep, Dont Look Up or Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204513950

Ashley Hernandez wrote:

I forgot that since Green Book won Supporting Actor that means Belfast will Supporting Actress because every film follows a formerly preordained film’s exactly and the 2 are exactly the same Balfe is too good for Belfast but gonna have to try harder to convince people of her winning over Dunst rather than simply saying it’s Oscar friendly as if any of the previous winners fit some silly 1990s mold of Oscar friendly

because it has a Green Book-like narrative. What is Belfast winning? Editing? Costumes? Cinematography? I don’t think.

You have two options. either you think Belfast will fall over the season or that this film will only win Picture and Screenplay (Director is very unlikely is this case), which is also very unlikely despite Spotlight.

And she has the reviews, the perfect role and all that.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204513914

wolfali wrote:

That still lost the British film of the year to <i>Promising Young Woman </i>so your comparison is flawed. Anyway reviews from the London film critics (who didn’t review the film at TIFF or Telluride) of Belfast will be out tomorrow as the film is screening at LFF so it will be interesting to see what the response is.

I’m not talking about the Best British Film category. Even losing the British Film, The Father won awards and had a lot of support there. That’s what I’m saying and Power of the Dog / Belfast seem to be front runners in different acting categories. They can give Actor to TPOTD and Supp Actress to Belfast and everything will be ok.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204513883

kaziz wrote:

Idea that Balfe is now gonna sweep LOL 💀 Y’all do know no Belfast actor will be a critic’s choice right? (Maybe Hinds, but they don’t much like the film) And critics groups are next, no need to get down on Negga, Buckley, Johnson just yet because along with Dunst, they’re the most likely to be cited by critics groups. Johnson is campaigning a lot more! Listen, I think they’re both fantastic, and I expected to prefer Buckley but I…didn’t. Also, I REALLY feel like people are just skipping over the passion for Dunst’s performance…like, it’s right here lol 😂, and I assure you re-watch the film, you’ll understand it a LOT more (like with any film, but TPOTD is particularly onion-like). FWIW: I haven’t seen Mass but from every review I can kinda tell Dowd & Plimpton are at the top of their game, present throughout the film, and I would prefer them to Dunst as winners. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t look like that’s happening, Dunst is campaigning like a boss lol

Mahershala Ali wasn’t a critic’s favorite and won an Oscar, in front of a critics favorite/british veteran with a incredible performance/movie. She has the right movie to get through these problems.

And the delusional idea that critics from smaller groups go only with “artistic things”. Even films like Danish Girl, Les Miserables, The Help have a lot of wins. Some groups are super basic.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204513867

wolfali wrote:

The Power of the Dog says hi.

I know. I just think Belfast is the typical british film, like The Father.

There will probably be love for everyone there. Benedict, Balfe, Campion and both films winning Screenplay.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204513747

Netflix will not put 3 nominees for Supporting Actress. It’s Dunst/Negga and with some risks for Ruth if Meryl comes in strong. We had the same conversation with Netflix in several categories last year and it just didn’t happen. even Burstyn missed a nom with a good narrative/campaign and this category seems full of great names.

Dowd probably won’t be nominated (Plimpton can also split votes w/ her) if critics doesn’t push Mass in several categories. This film will never be a screnner priority in front of Belfast, Power of the Dog, King Richard, WSS, Dont Look Up and the bunch of actresses with strong films in this category.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204513496

Belfast is the british film of the year. She is clearly winning there and we know SAG is going to eat this.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204502999

kaziz wrote:

I guess Balfe could win like Alicia Vikander did. Vikander was……frauded lol but still.

Yes. She can win in Alicia Vikander style and also with a mix of Ali in Green Book, who even with a recent supp prize, beat E. Grant, a british veteran/critic’s favorite, because of the power of Green Book and being “the actor in the best movie of the year.” Green Book was also a TIFF winner. She has the perfect vehicle to overcome the lack of critics awards (which I think she will be nominated for, but probably won’t win much).

People underestimate the “importance of being in a beloved film”, especially in recent years where it’s been an key factor in some races.
If the acting branch loves Belfast and buy some idea that it needs an acting award, it’s happening. britishs will support any prize for this film.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204502312

If she doesn’t have to fight against giants like Collette, Close or Dowd (if Mass is nominated above the line), I don’t think that will be a huge problem, especially because Belfast is a front runner and a “priority screener”.
Dunst is very well known, but people may think that “first nomination” is already a kind of recognition. Ellis, Dunst and Balfe are actresses in his first nomination.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204502294

Yes. Balfe is not that unknown. Outlander is a success, her fans make noise on internet and she was in Ford v. Ferrari two years ago.

and yes, we have actresses with much better reviews – Negga, Dowd, probably. But it’s too soon to say whether Mass or Passing will be anything beyond this category and maybe screenplay.
Balfe is in a Best Picture front runner, probably wil be the most watched film in the list, a lovely character (six actresses have won playing mothers in the last 12 years) and with “Oscar clips moments”. Belfast will have a lot of british support and she is the hightlight of the reviews, unlike Dunst/Ellis, who share the attention with acclaimed lead actors/potential winners that will campaigning a lot.

Its too soon, but she has a strong shot in this category.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204502278

kaziz wrote:

I see that but…were Yeun and Han really in the film more? I don’t remember them having that much more. Alan Kim and his sister seemed to have faaaar more to me but maybe I’m misremembering. Either way, them being put in lead doesn’t seem that unprecedented to me imo. It really does happen all the time with child leads.

according to screen time data – Yeun 48min, Han 45min and Alan Kim 44min. They had more/or nearly the same screen time as the child.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204500124

estrelas wrote:

If by Anderson, you mean Erik Anderson, he just updated his predictions for Supporting Actress and he still has Kirsten Dunst #1 and he doesn’t have Balfe in the top5 (he has her #6). And Balfe isn’t the frontrunner when her placement isn’t even decided by the studio.

Yes. he said on the AW forum that she will be his number1 (next predictions) if placed in supporting. But yes, he still has her out of the category until there’s something official. She is #6 in Lead, not supporting. And it’s not like Kaluuya didn’t have some “front runner” status even before Warner made his category placement official. This is a way of putting pressure on the studio to make this movement.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204500102

<p style=”text-align: left;”>

Stefania wrote:

Silly genuine question: why does it matter if they campaign her in lead or supporting for the Oscars, if in the end the voters do whatever they want like last year with Stanfield? Wasn’t he supposed to be “sacrificed in lead” as well? I mean, I want to know for my odds, but is it important for the precursors or what?

</p>
things like Stanfield are very unusual and yes, its important for the precursos (SAG, especially).

But critics’ awards can contest and nominate an actor in any category, pressing the studios to change their minds for the televised ones.

 

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204500030

Piper Halliwell wrote:

Okay, none of the “but she can win here” arguments are actually important if the studio doesn’t care about this particular narrative. Dench would be an easy name check here for a strong BP-contender, if you think they are going to risk this to do a campaign for Balfe, you are naive. Balfe is your typical “sacrificed in lead” type of contender.

why will they sacrifice a early FRONT RUNNER (according to Feinberg, Neglia, Anderson) and an acting award? I doubt Dench/Hinds will campaign more than Dornan/Balfe. this week there will be a “deadline contenders” event with the cast and Dench won’t even be present. many “experts” here at GD think that Judi won’t be nominated even without Balfe in the category. Nominations are not about status, especially if you have two actors with undeniably better reviews. Sacrifice is when an actor doesn’t stand out. They wouldn’t be risking anything, because Balfe/Dornan are an easy nomination in Supporting and if Dench is so respected, she’ll fit into the supporting category anyway.
Honestly, this is talk of who’s rooting for Dunst to win more easily or Dench to have a “safe nom”, sorry. Doesn’t make sense.

It’s like thinking they would put Alicia Vikander in Lead Actress if Judi Dench had a small role in The Danish Girl, just because Dench is more respected and an “easy name”. They go with whoever is more likely to win and that’s how it works.

[Diogo Duarte Joined: Nov 1st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1204499871

Piper Halliwell wrote:

Balfe is probably going lead. Why are people still entertaining the idea that she’d be pushed here? They’d be stupid not to push the bigger name for an easy nom in supporting.

because she can win here – Balfe is number 1 in a lot of predictions and an acting win would be essential (like happened w/Green Book) to cement Belfast as a Best Picture front runner, since Screenplay is (for now) the only category that this film has a realistic chance of win w/Best Picture. And according to everyone, she’s a supporting anyway, with limited screen time (around 25min) and the boy is the protagonist. The characters don’t have a name, they’re just Pa, Ma, Grandma… because they’re visions of the child himself. Minari it’s very different.

And I love Judi, but this is just stan’s talk. She doesnt have a real chance of win even without Balfe here. She will be 3rd or 4th in the category and could miss a Bafta nom (same for Balfe/Dornan if Lead) with the jury system. Dench already has a “coattail” prize for Shakespeare in Love and won’t win another one if it isn’t undeniable. If Balfe/Dornan goes in Lead, they’ll miss a chance of a win and two safe spots on Bafta, which I don’t think is what they want right now.