[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204031527

Nameizmann wrote:

It makes soooo much sense as a NGNG pick except that it’s a Korean language performance. If only…

I’m not delusional, I know it’s a long shot, but: Parasite won SAG. Actors clearly didn’t mind it being in Korean. But Parasite had such a large ensemble that it didn’t get individual nods because there was no one person to rally behind. Ask 5 people who the MVP was and you’ll get 5 answers. Category confusion. Ect. Minari isn’t the same phenom but at least it only has one push per category since they’re not gonna bother with the kids.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204031228

I’m throwing Yeri Han into #5. No compelling argument for anyone at this point and I’m expecting Minari to overperform. It got cinematography and score today, both deserved and should repeat at the Oscars.

And she’s 100/1. Why the hell not.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204022383

wolfali wrote:

1. Chadwick Boseman
2. Anthony Hopkins
3. Riz Ahmed
4. Gary Oldman
5. Tahar Rahim

6. Steven Yeun
7. Delroy Lindo

As much as I’d like to see some new blood (in theory, haven’t seen Rahim’s film yet) I doubt GG goes 5/5.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204022233

I’m keeping Lindo. Every year we get an acting nod who missed SAG and GG, and he seems more likely than Ellen B, Raci, and Hanks. He has a more all-around contender, D5B getting Boseman and Ensemble and Oldman being a sole nominee tells me that Lindo’s film has more (industry, not dipshit Globes) passion behind it and he can still wiggle in. I’ve said for a long time Oldman can be snubbed, and that’s still true.

Boseman
Ahmed
Hopkins
Lindo
Oldman/Yeun

Stanfield fans, forget about it. GG and SAG aren’t gonna 5/5 with the Oscars because of Lindo, not him, he’s completely overshadowed by Kaluuya and he’s not gonna campaign. I love him too, so I’m sorry, but if he were happening the Globes would have said so since they love to be the ones to crown the new hot thing.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204021660

wolfali wrote:

Leto isn’t happening. The last spot is going to someone from a BP contender so one of Burnham, Raci or Strathairn.

I’m gonna keep dreaming with you comrade

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204021511

JackO wrote:

I refuse to believe Leto is happening.

I can’t put him in. Morally unable to. Raci’s not dead till I see the body.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204014954

Dan Backslide wrote:

So for those who’ve seen Kaluuya’s apparently and expectedly excellent work, is he a frauded lead, borderline, or genuinely supporting?

Borderline. Probably more accurate to call them co-leads, and the movie shines brightest when Kaluuya is in the spotlight. He does have less time overall, though. If the world is just, he’ll be sweeping.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204007200

Odom Jr has name recognition from Hamilton while Ben-Adir does not. Easy as that. I liked his performance a hell of a lot better than Oldman’s but he’s not happening.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204007036

Personal Top 10:

Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
Nicole Beharie – Miss Juneteenth
Han Ye-Ri – Minari
Aubrey Plaza – Black Bear
Haley Bennet – Swallow
Elizabeth Moss – Invisible Man
Frances McDormand – Nomadland
Meryl Streep – Let Them All Talk
Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead

Still have to see Carrie Coon.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204003733

wolfali wrote:

Worth baring in mind that there was strong win buzz for Da 5 Bloods back when it released. In fact some joked that a white person car movie would have to be released to stop it.

I won’t be surprised if it won the Drama Globe and got to BAFTA but then lost the Oscar.

Can’t remember, is there any driving in Chicago 7? It’s exactly the milquetoast white lib shit that keeps cursing Spike.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

Reply

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204003681

CuriousHedgehog wrote:

“Films must have been released in theatres, on broadcast or cable television, or via commercial streaming platforms domestically during the prior calendar year, January 1–December 31, 2020”

is it because it’s not out yet in theatres or streaming? Says nothing about it having to be American.

They nominated One Night in Miami which just came out a few days ago. Unless there was a limited Lincoln Center thing that Nomadland and Minari used to fudge eligibility.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

Reply

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204003675

estrelas wrote:

Does anyone know if The Father was eligible? Or does USC Scripter have the same rules as AFI?

They’re not American-only, theyve nominated The Death of Stalin, Brooklyn, Lion, Philomena, ect. So The Father should have been eligible

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

Reply

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204003633

Bad Education deserves, but is an annoying pick since I’m having a tough time figuring this category out.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

Reply

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204003619

Maybe Da 5 Bloods is the spoiler. I don’t believe that Nomadland can maintain frontrunner status from September to April and then actually pull the BP win. Even La La Land fell. It’s just that nothing else seems strong enough. Next up have to be D5B and Chicago 7, but they’re both Netflix…BP is still a mystery.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

Reply

[Dorsey Joined: Dec 31st, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 591 View Predictions]

#1204003317

Is Seyfried doing well with critics? She’s only won in Philadelphia.

FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)