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June 26, 2020 at 1:12 pm #1203553435
‘The Sun Belt Spikes Could Be a Disaster for Trump’
Democrats were already gaining ground in the region before the pandemic hit.
By Ronald Brownstein | June 25, 2020
The wildfire of coronavirus cases burning through the Sun Belt’s largest cities and suburbs could accelerate their movement away from President Donald Trump and the GOP—a dynamic with the potential to tip the balance in national elections not only in 2020, but for years to come.
Until the 2016 election, Republicans had maintained a consistent advantage in the region’s big metros—including Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, and Phoenix—even as Democrats took hold of comparable urban centers in other parts of the country. But under Trump, the GOP has lost ground in these diverse and economically thriving communities. And now, a ferocious upsurge of COVID-19 across the Sun Belt’s population hubs—including major cities in Florida and North Carolina where Democrats are already more competitive—is adding a new threat to the traditional Republican hold on these places.
“There’s a lag between the trends that we have seen in some of these big northern metropolitan areas and the southern metros,” Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, told me. “But they are definitely going in that same direction.”
In 2016, Trump won all five of the large Sun Belt states that could be battlegrounds in November. But the improving Democratic performance in the big metros provides Joe Biden a beachhead to contest each of them. Polls consistently give the former vice president a lead in Arizona and Florida, show him and Trump locked closely in North Carolina, and provide the president only a small edge (at best) in Texas and Georgia. New York Times/Siena College polls released today give Biden solid leads in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and commanding advantages in the major population centers of each state, including Phoenix, Miami, Charlotte, and Raleigh. Fox News polls also released today show Biden leading Trump narrowly in North Carolina, Georgia, and (even) Texas, while opening up a comfortable 9-point advantage in Florida. Among suburban voters, Biden led by 20 percentage points or more in each of those states except Texas, where suburbanites still preferred him by 9 points.
After winning one Arizona Senate seat in 2018, Democrats are also pressing to capture Republican-held Senate seats in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, and more suburban House seats near Raleigh, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, and Tampa, among others.
Even the Republicans relatively confident that Trump’s grip on rural voters will allow him to hold most, if not all, of these states recognize the implications of a trend that has them losing ground in the communities that are preponderantly driving economic and population growth.
“The trends of 2016, ’17, ’18 are continuing apace, with continuing weakness of the Republican brand in suburban areas that had traditionally voted Republican, coupled with strengthening of the Republican brand in rural areas that had traditionally voted Democrat,” Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster who has long specialized in southern suburbs, told me. “The problem, of course, is that the Republicans are trading larger, faster-growing areas for smaller, slower-growing areas, and the math does not work out in the long run with that sort of trade.”
The new twist in this ongoing reconfiguration is the coronavirus. After weeks in which the outbreak did not hit the southern metropolitan areas nearly as hard as major northern cities, the number of new cases in and around Sun Belt cities is exploding. “If we stay on this current trajectory, then we will overwhelm our hospitals” in July, Steve Adler, the mayor of Austin, Texas, told me yesterday, echoing the public alarms of many mayors across the region.
The trend lines are daunting. From May 23 through Tuesday [June 23], the total number of confirmed cases more than doubled in the counties centered on Austin (Travis), Houston (Harris), and Dallas; nearly doubled in Fort Worth (Tarrant); and roughly tripled in San Antonio (Bexar). In Maricopa County, Arizona, which comprises Phoenix and its sprawling suburbs, the total number of cases more than quadrupled from 8,151 on May 23 to 34,992 yesterday. In Florida, daily new cases in Miami-Dade County rose from 113 on May 24 to 947 on June 22. The map of cumulative cases maintained by the Georgia Department of Public Health is a soothing shade of blue across most of the state—except for the bright red marking Atlanta and its sizable surrounding suburbs of DeKalb, Cobb, and Gwinnett counties. Statewide, both Florida and Texas announced more than 5,500 new cases yesterday, a record for each. (California, the largest Sun Belt state, is also suffering a surge, but it is not politically competitive, with Biden enjoying a huge lead there.)
Public-health experts expect the numbers to continue rising for weeks. In Arizona, “we are experiencing a second surge after an early-May plateau,” Joe Gerald, a professor at the University of Arizona College of Public Health, told me. “This surge is much larger than the first one and basically our foot is still on the accelerator. It is going to get worse before it gets better.”
In Texas, Peter Hotez, the dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, described the situation in equally ominous terms. “I’m extremely worried,” he told me. “I sometimes use the word dire because the numbers are just accelerating so dramatically. If you look at the curve [of case growth], it’s very much an exponential curve.”
Both Gerald and Hotez, like Adler, told me that if the current trend is not slowed, hospitals’ capacity in their areas will be overwhelmed in the next few weeks. “The implications are: We’ll see in Houston what we saw in New York City in the spring, which is a surge on intensive-care units and hospitalizations, and we’ll reach or exceed capacity,” Hotez said. “You don’t want to do that, because that’s when the mortality rates start to climb.” Yesterday, Houston’s massive Texas Medical Center projected it could exceed its intensive-care capacity by as soon as today. Coronavirus hospitalizations in the Houston area have nearly tripled since Memorial Day, the Houston Chronicle has reported.
Likewise, the number of coronavirus patients hospitalized in Maricopa has more than doubled since late May, and just 12 percent of the state’s intensive-care-unit beds were available as of yesterday. The pressure on local medical workers is growing so intense that Ross Goldberg, the president of the Arizona Medical Association, told me the state may soon need to ask for volunteer health-care professionals from other states, as New York did earlier this year. “Obviously there is going to be a finite amount of space and a finite amount of staff,” Goldberg, a surgeon in Phoenix, said. “Is this a time where we start looking for help elsewhere? That is something we need to be considering.”
Across almost all of the Sun Belt states, the spikes are exacerbating tensions between Republican governors who rely mostly on suburban and rural areas for their votes, and Democratic local officials in the most populous cities and counties. Taking cues from Trump, Republican Governors Ron DeSantis in Florida, Brian Kemp in Georgia, Greg Abbott in Texas, and Doug Ducey in Arizona have all moved aggressively to reopen their state economies; refused to deviate from that course as the caseloads have increased; and blocked municipal officials from reversing or even slowing the pace of the reopening.
The one concession from DeSantis, Abbott, and Ducey has been to allow local governments to require some degree of mask wearing. But experts say that requirement alone, especially given the uncertainties of compliance and enforcement, cannot stop the rapidly rising caseload in these states. “I don’t think [masks] are going to be sufficient to slow the spread or prevent us from exceeding our hospital capacity,” Gerard told me.
Very little polling is available to show how voters across these Sun Belt states are reacting to the surge in new cases or the determination of the GOP governors to plow forward despite them. Mike Noble, who polls for nonpartisan clients in Arizona, told me that in his surveys this year, most residents have consistently worried more about reopening too quickly than too slowly—though with a sharp partisan divide between Democrats and Republicans. He told me that he expects his next survey in early July to show heightened anxiety and diminished confidence in Ducey’s handling of the outbreak.
“I assume voters will be souring,” Noble said. “We thought originally that here in the desert, we’re not going to be affected.”
The core political question in the large Sun Belt metro areas may be whether residents are grateful that their governors have given them more freedom to resume daily activities or resentful that they have put them at greater risk by reopening so widely. Ayres said the answer is likely some of both. “I really think there’s a limit to how long you can enforce a rigid lockdown in a country where freedom and liberty are core values,” he told me. “That said, it is now impossible to dismiss this pandemic as a hoax or just the flu or any of the other dismissive appellations that have been applied to it.”
For Trump and the GOP, an urban/suburban backlash against these Republican governors—combined with a broader negative verdict on the federal pandemic response—risks accelerating the trends reshaping metropolitan politics across the Sun Belt.
After advancing in the populous white-collar suburban areas in the Northeast, the Midwest, and California during the 1990s, followed by gains in the metros of Virginia, Colorado, and North Carolina starting around 2004, Democrats are now finally seeing the same trends fortify their position in the Sun Belt population centers.
Take Gwinnett and Cobb counties, outside Atlanta. In 2014, Republican Senator David Perdue, who’s up for reelection in November, won comfortable margins of about 55 percent in each. In 2016, though, Hillary Clinton won both by relatively narrow margins against Trump, and in 2018, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Stacey Abrams, carried them more resoundingly. Abramowitz expects them to continue moving toward the Democrats in 2020, with margins sufficient enough to give Biden and Perdue’s Democratic opponent, Jon Ossoff, a competitive shot at the state, and also to flip an open U.S. House seat in Gwinnett.
In Texas, the arc looks similar. The University of Houston political scientist Richard Murray has charted a clear blue bend in voters’ political preferences in the 27 counties that comprise the state’s four huge metro areas—Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin—which together account for about 70 percent of the state’s votes and jobs. As recently as 2012, GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won 55 percent of the vote across them. But in 2016, Trump fell just under 50 percent, the first GOP nominee to lose them since Barry Goldwater running against native son Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In 2018, Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke carried all four of those metros with 54 percent of the vote.
Murray said he expects Biden to capture as much as 58 percent in November. With the higher presidential-year turnout, he predicts, that could produce an advantage of more than 1 million votes for Biden in and around those four cities. Murray said there is no guarantee Trump can squeeze out enough rural votes to hold Texas. But even if he does, the GOP faces some brutal arithmetic: As Ayres and Murray both noted, it’s relying more and more on the places that are shrinking or stagnant in population while retreating in the growing places. This problem is especially acute in Texas, Murray said, because the metropolitan areas are among the nation’s fastest growing, and they are becoming much more racially diverse as they expand.
Paul Begala, the veteran Democratic strategist and a Houston native, predicts this realignment will be on hyperdrive because of the pandemic. “People in the suburbs today more readily identify with their neighbors in the city than they do with folks 100 miles away who refuse to wear a mask,” he told me. “That’s a tectonic change. The suburbs exist because people there didn’t want to be around people in the cities. But the shift has been happening for quite some time, and this COVID makes it worse.”
Gains for Democrats in the Texas suburbs sufficient to allow them to win statewide would likely qualify as the most significant political development of the 2020s. But for November, Arizona is the state where these dynamics may matter most. Many Democrats see Arizona, which Democrats have carried only once since 1948, as Biden’s best chance to reach 270 Electoral College votes if he can’t dislodge Trump’s hold on either Wisconsin or Florida.
Maricopa County is the key to those hopes. It was the biggest county in America that Trump won in 2016, when he carried it by almost 45,000 votes. But in 2018, it propelled the Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema to her victory when she took it by about 60,000 votes. Noble’s recent polls have consistently found both Biden and Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly leading their respective Republican opponents by roughly double digits in the sprawling county—unprecedented in recent years for Democrats. As Noble noted, only one Republican (a superintendent of public instruction, in 2014) has recently won a statewide race while losing Maricopa, no matter how much Republicans run up the score, as Trump is likely to do, in the state’s rural regions. “They are still in trouble in Maricopa County,” he said.
Both a precinct-by-precinct analysis of the 2018 results that Noble conducted and his monthly polling this year have convinced him that Republicans are leaking support from two groups in Maricopa: college-educated white voters (especially women) and seniors. Both populations are among those who have expressed the most concern about the coronavirus, even before the fearsome surge now buffeting the area.
Trump’s response? When he stopped in Maricopa for a rally in north Phoenix on Tuesday, he did not wear a mask or require one for those attending the event, despite public pleas to do so from Mayor Kate Gallego. He barely mentioned the outbreak in his 90-minute speech. In other words, even while visiting metropolitan Phoenix, Trump’s focus seemed to be on his preponderantly white base in the exurban and rural communities beyond it. Across the Sun Belt, November will test whether Trump’s base-first strategy can overcome the resistance that’s coalescing against him in the population centers now confronting the full force of the coronavirus outbreak.June 24, 2020 at 5:52 am #1203549398
‘Trump’s re-election strategy is all wrong — and his staffers know it’
By Andrew Feinberg | June 23, 2020
With just over 130 days remaining until the jury that is the American electorate renders a verdict on the previous 1,383 days of Donald Trump’s presidency, his campaign for reelection has backed itself into a corner.
The presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, has opened up a national polling lead that a recent Fox News poll estimates could be as large as 12 percentage points among registered voters.
In the state-by-state polling that can forecast the winner of the Electoral College, Biden leads in nearly all the so-called battleground states (including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.) He’s also polling within the margin of error in solidly Republican states like Arkansas, Iowa, Georgia, and Texas. And all these numbers came in before Americans saw how Donald Trump could only draw a paltry crowd of just 6,200 people in Tulsa, Oklahoma (after predicting an audience of millions in a state he carried with over 65 percent of the vote four years ago) to watch him deliver a rambling, disjointed speech to a mostly empty arena, outside of which a construction crew was breaking down an outdoor stage that the Trump campaign had built for overflow crowds who simply turned out not to exist.
For just under two hours, the President of the United States put on a show that The Recount editor-in-chief compared to an overweight, drugged-out Elvis Presley in his final years. And while Trump got the familiar cheers for all the familiar hits — attacks on “crooked Hillary,” Barack Obama, and “fake news,” plus “build the wall” and “lock her up” chants, complaints about so-called sanctuary cities and rants about NFL players kneeling during the national anthem — his attempts to introduce new material into his act generally fell flat.
Instead of making the case for his reelection — and against electing Biden — Trump spent most of the time attacking old enemies and airing grievances both old and new. At one point, he devoted a full 16 minutes to explaining why it was that he appeared to have serious trouble descending a ramp during an appearance at West Point the previous week. At another, he crossed from dog-whistles into out-and-out racism with an attack on Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, who, he said, “would like to make the government of our country just like the country from where she came, Somalia”.
Trump went on to lament that Omar, a sitting member of Congress who came to the US as a refugee after her family fled Somalia, is “telling us how to run our country”.
And to the extent he previewed his case against Biden, Trump largely stuck to the now-familiar claims that the former Vice President is too feeble or senile to lead the country — a claim which, judging from Biden’s seven-point lead in Florida, appears to be falling flat with senior citizens.
That Saturday’s trip to Tulsa was a disaster for Trump and a boost for Biden was not lost on members of the president’s team. When your intrepid correspondent texted a Trump campaign staffer to ask their opinion of the night’s events, the staffer replied: “Biden should have to report our costs to the [Federal Election Commission] as a campaign contribution”.
According to a report in Vanity Fair, Trump is now considering a campaign shake-up that would make a scapegoat of campaign manager Brad Parscale, the political neophyte who was his 2016 campaign’s digital director, and potentially elevate veteran Trumpworlders Bill Stepien and Jason Miller. And the Trump campaign is also doubling down on the “Biden is senile” messaging with a now-failed attempt to goad Biden into agreeing to add an extra debate to the three-night schedule of debates organized by a bipartisan commission.
But veterans of past presidential campaigns from both parties are not sure anything the campaign can do will make a difference at this point.
Stuart Stevens, the veteran GOP strategist who advised Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign, said it won’t matter who is nominally in charge of the campaign because the only people Trump will ultimately listen to are his sons, his daughter, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
“Trump is Tony Soprano: He’s ultimately only gonna trust the family, and they have no idea what they’re doing,” Stevens said. “The whole campaign reminds me of somebody goes to a cocktail party, has some drinks, drives home safely, and decides that alcohol helps you drive.”
Stevens explained that Trump and his team have learned all the wrong lessons from his narrow 2016 victory.
“On a basic level, Trump won because he ran in a year in which a Republican could win with 46.1 percent of the vote, when third-party votes increased, and the non-white vote declined for the first time in 20 years. Trump has always had a very small margin that they took as a mandate and they never tried to expand their electorate,” he said, adding that the massive Black Lives Matter protests that have swept across the country could also be considered get-out-the-vote rallies for Biden, particularly since Trump is running as a “white grievance candidate”.
Trump’s Tulsa debacle, he said, shows the folly of running a campaign based more on mechanics — large rallies, data collection, digital metrics, turnout operations — than on message.
“It’s not that that stuff doesn’t matter, but it’s a lot less important than overall messaging,” he said, adding that Trump’s recent embrace of a “law and order” message in the mould of Richard Nixon is doomed to fail because the demographics of 2020 are not close to what they were in previous years.
“In 1980, Ronald Reagan wins a 44-state sweeping landslide, with 55 percent of the white vote, but in 2008, John McCain lost with 55 percent of the white vote. So it’s a very different country,” he said. “They’re looking at the 1960’s model with Nixon, but Trump isn’t Nixon, the country is different, and they seem unable to embrace that reality,” he went on, adding that it was unlikely that Trump would be able to attract any top-tier talent to replace Parscale or anyone else he might get rid of in a staff shake-up: “Why would you want to do that [work for Trump] — who has benefited from any association with Donald Trump? You’re just being brought in there as a scapegoat.”
It’s unlikely that the campaign will succeed as long as Trump’s son-in-law remains involved, Stevens said: “Jared Kushner, maybe he’ll reach 27 books on how to run campaigns instead of the 26 he read on the Mideast. As far as I know, he has singularly failed at everything he’s attempted in government.”
Former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Steele said Trump’s campaign appears to relying on a message that activates the most partisan of his supporters by arguing that electing Biden — and Democrats in general — would be worse than anything that could happen during a second Trump term, but he cautioned that circumstances have undermined that message.
“Trump has been trying to ignite that passion that flame again, but the problem — the cold water on that — is Covid-19, a poor economy, and now, bad race relations,” he said. “None of these voters want to be sick. They’ve either lost a job or been furloughed, so they’ve been impacted by the economy, and none of them wants to be called a racist. So the narrative that Trump is trying to push is running up against a very hard reality, and that’s the great irony here, that reality is smacking up against the reality TV presidency.”
“You’ve got a 133-day window now,” he continued. “In politics, that’s a lifetime… but the reality for the campaign is, given the way the President has refused to dial back the stuff that’s drawing that’s moving people off of him and dial back into things that could strengthen his hand, the window to turn things around keeps narrowing.”
Like Stevens, Steele said Trump and his team have learned all the wrong lessons from his narrow victory four years ago.
“Trump does not realize the source of his win in 2016, and does not fully appreciate that that election was less about him and more about Hillary, and now when given an opportunity to evaluate… his leadership, his temperament, his demeanor, and his policies… against a Joe Biden, they’re not afraid of Biden the way they were afraid of Hillary Clinton,” he said.
And as for the Trump campaign’s demands for an additional debate and their attempts to define Biden as a mentally deficient, debilitated shadow of a figure, Steele said such a strategy was not one devised by people who are operating in reality.
“They’re not working in a real world — they’re working in Trump’s world, so everybody has to pretend that what the President is thinking and feeling about this is exactly how it is or how it’s going to play out,” he said, adding that Biden would be “very well prepared” for this fall’s debates.
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Philippe Reines, a longtime Hillary Clinton aide who played Trump during her 2016 debate preparations, called Trumpworld’s apparent hope that Biden would implode during debates “magical thinking with a Hail Mary,” and said that such a belief was ironic, given Trump’s tendency to damage himself every time he opens his mouth.
“I don’t know why you would look at his primary performances and think people are going to be left with a bad taste in their mouth, because irrespective of how you want to grade his performances, he went on to win the nomination in resounding form,” he added.
Reines called the Trump campaign’s attempts to define Biden as senile and unfit as a “caricature” that “is not anywhere near reality,” and predicted that voters watching Biden and Trump side-by-side on a debate stage would come away with a favorable impression of Biden and questions about whether Trump was suffering from significant health issues.
“It’s strange, given the particular vulnerabilities of Donald Trump and the particular strengths of Joe Biden, that they think putting [them side-by-side] somehow benefits Trump. If anything, it reinforces the very attributes and behavior that have created the problem he is in,” he said. “What Trump is suffering from, with every day that goes by, there are more and more people trusting their own two eyes. And maybe that’s his own doing because he’s told them not to trust anything and that’s all they’re left with, but in that calculus, Joe Biden is the winner.”
Steele, too, panned the idea that a single Biden gaffe made during a debate would somehow reverse Trump’s fortunes, noting that the reason Biden’s lead has been so consistent despite previous a reputation as a self-described “gaffe machine” is because people know and like him.
Biden, he said, is the uncle who everyone wants to be at Thanksgiving dinner, even if he might say some off-color or confusing things, while Trump is the uncle who everyone wants to leave after he shows up late and gets drunk.
“With Uncle Joe, they’re like: ‘I’m glad he’s here,’ but with Uncle Trump, it’s, ‘When does he go? When does he leave?’” he said. “So that’s the selection, and if you don’t appreciate how that impacts the way voters look at this, you’re going to make some dumb mistakes.”June 22, 2020 at 8:28 pm #1203547106
‘Trump increasingly preoccupied with defending his physical and mental health’
By Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey | June 22, 2020
The early June meeting in the Cabinet Room was intended as a general update on President Trump’s reelection campaign, but the president had other topics on his mind.
Trump had taken a cognitive screening test as part of his 2018 physical, and now, more than two years later, he brought up the 10-minute exam. He waxed on about how he’d dazzled the proctors with his stellar performance, according to two people familiar with his comments. He walked the room of about two dozen White House and reelection officials through some of the questions he said he’d aced, such as being able to repeat five words in order.
At the time, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment — which includes animal pictures and other simple queries aimed at detecting mild cognitive impairment such as dementia — was intended to quell questions about Trump’s mental fitness. But in recalling it, Trump said he thought presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden would never be able to pass it and suggested challenging him to take the test, said the people familiar with Trump’s comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share private details.
The seeming non sequitur was part of Trump’s growing preoccupation in recent weeks over perceptions of his mental and physical health, at a time when critics have mocked him for episodes in which they say he has appeared frail or confused. The attacks Trump has previously levied against Biden — dismissing the former vice president as “Sleepy Joe,” secreted away in his basement and enfeebled — have boomeranged back on him, as opponents have seized on Trump’s own missteps to raise concerns.
Another sign of Trump’s unease came Saturday night in Tulsa, when the president devoted more than 14 minutes to regaling a campaign rally crowd with the tale of “the ramp and the water.” Eager to dismiss questions about his fitness after he struggled with a glass of water and walked unsteadily down a ramp following his June 13 commencement address at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, Trump offered a revisionist history.
The ramp on that sunny day, Trump asserted, was as slippery as “an ice-skating rink.” But he “ran down” it nonetheless, he claimed, despite video evidence showing him shuffling down the incline haltingly. As for the water, Trump said, he used two hands to drink because he didn’t want to spill on his expensive silk tie.
“Anyway, that’s a long story, but here’s the story,” the president said, finally winding down. “I’ve lived with the ramp and the water since I left West Point.”
He had previously obsessed about the episode to aides in private and during a Wall Street Journal interview, when he brought the incident up unprompted and offered to produce the leather-bottom shoes he had been wearing that day, which he said were “not good” for ramps.
“In the middle of the worst economy in a century and with more than a hundred thousand Americans dead this guy is primarily concerned with not looking weak,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), referring to the death toll from the coronavirus pandemic. “And his endless, bottomless insecurity was onstage, in three dimensions, during that storytelling moment, for everyone to see. I’ve seen a lot of crazy things in the last four years but that display of juvenile behavior and self-regard will go in the Trump time capsule.”
In recent weeks, Trump has fixated on Biden’s physical and mental acuity, aides said, casting about for ways to attack his Democratic rival and stewing over media coverage that he believes makes him look weak or feeble.
Last week, Trump and his campaign team lobbied the presidential debate commission to have four debates, because they believe Biden will look weaker and will make more mistakes than Trump on the debate stage.
The president has encouraged advisers to attack Biden over his mental acuity, White House officials said, but some worry that doing so too aggressively could backfire and hurt him among senior citizens.
“For someone so obsessed with appearing strong, Donald Trump shows us every day just how weak he is,” Biden press secretary TJ Ducklo said in a statement Monday. “ … Donald Trump doesn’t care about the health or economic prosperity of the American people. He only cares about himself.”
Trump is attuned to any portrayal of him as weak. He was furious earlier this month after news leaked that he and his family were rushed to a secure underground bunker as protesters converged on the White House in the wake of the death of George Floyd, an unarmed black man killed in Minneapolis police custody. He initially falsely claimed that he had simply visited the bunker to inspect it.
Trump has also refused to wear a mask during the coronavirus pandemic, despite his own government’s guidelines, and has regularly suggested that Biden and others who wear them are showing weakness or fear.
Flying to Tulsa on Air Force One Saturday, the president was fuming to aides about the small crowd size of his rally — about 6,000 people in a 19,000-seat arena — another form of weakness in his mind.
Trump’s critics have seized on his agita, taking every opportunity to needle him publicly. Last week, the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump Republican group, launched a new 45-second ad that begins, “Something’s wrong with Donald Trump.”
“He’s shaky, weak, trouble speaking, trouble walking,” the narrator continues as grainy images flash by, including of Trump at West Point. “The most powerful office in the world needs more than a weak, unfit, shaky president.”
Less than 24-hours after the Tulsa rally, the group pushed out another video, mocking his smaller-than-expected turnout, and hitting similar themes: “Sad, weak, low-energy,” says the narrator. “Just like your presidency, just like you.”
Mike Murphy, a vocal Trump critic who is now a strategic adviser to Republican Voters Against Trump, said Trump’s obsession with never seeming weak belies a deeper insecurity, making this particular line of attack particularly devastating.
“And now the strong guy — the strength image — is melting and we found out how weak and needy he is,” Murphy said. “If it’s ‘Sleepy Joe,’ we have ‘Weak, Needy Donald’ and that is his kryptonite.”
The Trump campaign, meanwhile, has been running a similar playbook against Biden. The campaign released an ad last week called “Fortitude” that mocked some of Biden’s missteps.
“Joe Biden is slipping . . . Biden is clearly diminished,” the narrator says, against the backdrop of Biden seeming to stumble through remarks. “Joe Biden does not have the strength, the stamina and mental fortitude required to lead this country.”
White House spokeswoman Sarah Matthews rejected the idea that Trump shares any of the physical or mental weaknesses that he accuses Biden of possessing.
“I challenge anyone who absurdly questions this president’s health to spend one day trying to keep up with his rigorous schedule,” Matthews said in an email statement. “This president never stops — whether it’s working early in the morning or late into the evening.”
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said the challenge for the Trump team now is that they “always put themselves into this everything is the biggest ever, the greatest ever” box, making it difficult for Trump to countenance even the slight hint of weakness on his part. “What we’re seeing over the past few weeks is really the issue of what gets under his skin.”
Heye said that while he didn’t think the initial coverage of the West Point ramp or water drinking was particularly problematic, the president clearly did. “He has been rattled by the reaction to it, and it’s because it speaks to that issue of strength,” Heye said.
Reaching under his lectern in Tulsa during his reenactment episode Saturday, the president pulled out a glass of water and brought it to his lips with one hand, raising it to the crowd between sips as if toasting an achievement. Then he tossed it away to his side as his supporters roared with delight.
“Trump! Trump!” the crowd chanted in response. “Four more years! Four more years!”June 22, 2020 at 10:33 am #1203546134
The last thing I binge-watched was The Baker and the Beauty. This was on Hulu (to which I have a commercial-free subscription). I am sorry ABC canceled it. And given the fact the only thing I make a point of watching on that network on a regular basis is The Good Doctor, this fun series—and it was well-crafted, -produced, -directed, -written, and -acted—frees me up from tuning in more than one series on the network. There is something to ABC that is really unappealing.June 22, 2020 at 10:15 am #1203546104
I am in no position to give an opinion on, or make any predictions for, the 47th Daytime Emmy Awards. (I did not watch enough.)
I will comment that it would not surprise me if Bryton James and Christel Khalil, who plays siblings Devon and Lily on CBS’s The Young and the Restless, win in the supporting-acting races.
It has to do with an impact their performances may have in the aftermath of the death of both the Neil Winters character and the beloved actor who played him, Kristoff St. John (1966–2019), himself a two-time Emmy winner. (I certainly watched those episodes.)
I hope the winners will be good choices. And I also hope people have a good time with the ceremony.June 22, 2020 at 10:06 am #1203546067
There was not an actress more captivating nor commanding on screen than Susan Lucci.
Susan Lucci’s best shot and first legitimate claim to an Emmy was the now controversial year of 1978. …
I don’t go back as far as you do.
The first Daytime Emmys I watched was in 1985. The Daytime Emmys were not broadcast in 1984. And I wasn’t familiar enough to have strong opinions on who should be nominated and who should win. (In 1985, my sense of who may prevail were with the supporting-acting winners: Larry Gates of CBS’s Guiding Light and Beth Maitland of CBS’s The Young and the Restless.)
1984 was my year to become familiar with the daytime soaps. Given the fact I was born in 1971, and there can be some particular years that stand out for a person’s childhood, that year was a big standout for me.
From that point forward, I thought Susan Lucci of ABC’s All My Children would win in 1987 (for the 1986–87 season) and 1996 (for the 1995–96 season).
I am glad you made a point about Lucci’s fellow cast mate Kate Collins (who played Natalie Hunter). I figured she could have been nominated, say, three or four times during her original 1985 to 1992 run. (I remember 1986, 1988, 1990, and 1992—for the 1985–86, the 1987–88, the 1989–90, and the 1991–92 seasons.) Of all those actors who were never nominated, after the Daytime Emmys began in 1974, but after I started watching in 1984, I consider Kate Collins the biggest standout.
The Pre-noms improved the nomination system greatly—of course, it is ironic that the number of soaps have greatly pared down—and Susan Lucci, who was last nominated in 2002, was not nominated again under this system (which began in 2003). I think Kate Collins would have been nominated—and she would have won.
The Locher Room has had really standout episodes. And it is taking me back to 1992. The first half of the 1990s. A great period for Guiding Light. Beverlee McKinsey should have been nominated and won for playing Alexandra Spaulding in 1992. (The 1991–92 season.) She received four Lead Actress nominations for playing Iris on NBC’s Another World between 1977 and 1980. So, you mentioning her from 1978, the first year of nomination for Lucci (who was interviewed by Locher), is also much-appreciated by me. (Thank you!)June 22, 2020 at 4:13 am #1203545680
(There will be another GL reunion next Wednesday but I have forgotten who will be on it).
On Wednesday, June 24, 2020, The Locher Room is scheduled to be welcoming Guiding Light’s Robert Bogue (who was the second actor to have played A.C. Mallet, when the series reactivated the character in 2005) and Mandy Bruno (the last actress to play Marina Cooper and who is married to Bogue). Also joining them will be Murray Bartlett (who played Cyrus Foley) and Gina Tognoni (who, as Dinah Marler, won two of her three Emmys for GL). These are four cast members who were on the series in its last decade and few years up to its cancellation by CBS in 2009.June 21, 2020 at 2:30 pm #1203545097
Those numbers are interesting…
There are more numbers.
With a listing of their margins (and their cumulative electoral votes), here were the results from Election 2016 of what carried for Donald Trump with his Republican pickup of the presidency of the United States (* 2016 Republican pickups):
— Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District +54.19 (cumulative 01 electoral vote)
01. Wyoming +46.30 (cum. 04)
02. West Virginia +41.68 (cum. 09)
03. Oklahoma +36.39 (cum. 16)
04. North Dakota +35.73 (cum. 19)
05. Idaho +31.76 (cum. 23)
06. Kentucky +29.84 (cum. 31)
07. South Dakota +29.79 (cum. 34)
08. Alabama +27.73 (cum. 43)
09. Arkansas +26.92 (cum. 49)
10. Tennessee +26.01 (cum. 60)
11. Nebraska [statewide] +25.05 (cum. 62)
— Nebraska’s 1st Congressional Distict +20.72 (cum. 63)
12. Kansas +20.42 (cum. 69)
13. Montana +20.23 (cum. 72)
14. Louisiana +19.64 (cum. 80)
15. Indiana +19.01 (cum. 91)
16. Missouri +18.51 (cum. 101)
17. Utah +17.89 (cum. 107)
18. Mississippi +17.80 (cum. 113)
19. Alaska +14.73 (cum. 116)
20. South Carolina +14.27 (cum. 125)
— * Maine’s 2nd Congressional District +10.28 (cum. 126)
21. * Iowa +9.41 (cum. 132)
22. Texas +8.98 (cum. 170)
23. * Ohio +8.07 (cum. 188)
24. Georgia +5.10 (cum. 204)
25. North Carolina +3.66 (cum. 219)
26. Arizona +3.50 (cum. 230)
— Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District +2.23 (cum. 231)
27. * Florida +1.19 (cum. 260)
28. * Wisconsin +0.76 (cum. 270)—tipping-point state
29. * Pennsylvania +0.72 (cum. 290)
30. * Michigan +0.22 (cum. 306 original electoral votes)
Here were the ones which were not carried by 2016 Donald Trump—that they were won by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton—and how they ranked for Trump:
31. New Hampshire –0.37 (cum. 310)
32. Minnesota –1.51 (cum. 320)
[Margin from U.S. Popular Vote: –2.09]
33. Nevada –2.42 (cum. 326)
34. Maine [statewide] –2.96 (cum. 328)
35. Colorado –4.91 (cum. 337)
36. Virginia –5.32 (cum. 350)
37. New Mexico –8.21 (cum. 355)
38. Oregon –10.98 (cum. 362)
39. Delaware –11.37 (cum. 365)
40. Connecticut –13.64 (cum. 372)
41. New Jersey –13.98 (cum. 386)
— Maine’s 1st Congressional District –14.81 (cum. 387)
42. Rhode Island –15.51 (cum. 391)
43. Washington –15.71 (cum. 403)
44. Illinois –16.89 (cum. 423)
45. New York –22.49 (cum. 452)
46. Vermont –26.41 (cum. 455)
47. Maryland –26.42 (cum. 465)
48. Massachusetts –27.20 (cum. 476)
49. California –29.99 (cum. 531)
50. Hawaii –32.18 (cum. 535)
— District of Columbia –86.78 (cum. 538)
Since you mentioned Election 2020 is going to result in a “landslide victory for the GOP and Donald Trump,” and you should be able to refer to the above list for their 2016 margins (and notice Trump lost in the U.S. Popular Vote by –2.09 percentage points), go ahead and tell us where there will be increased 2016-to-2020 re-election support for Donald Trump.June 18, 2020 at 5:52 am #1203540293
It’s my favorite of the reunions Alan has put together so far and I highly recommend watching it. Justin Deas … Beth Ehlers … John Driscoll …
It was good.
I also like The Locher Room’s June 10 program welcoming Guiding Light’s Mark Derwin (who played A.C. Mallet from 1990 to 1993), Morgan Englund (who played Dylan Lewis from early-1989 to early-1995), Melissa Hayden (who played Bridget Reardon from 1991 to 1997 and won an Emmy in 1994), Jocelyn Seagrave (who played Mallet’s sister Julie Camaletti from 1991 to 1994), and Kimberley Simms (who played Dylan’s sister Mindy Lewis from 1989 to 1992).
Each of them were interesting.
I was big into CBS’s Guiding Light when they were on particularly with the 1991–92 television season. That season was personally my favorite of any soap’s since I started watching regularly in 1984. (Simms left GL in June 1992 because she and the series did not reach terms for renewal of her contract.)
Melissa Hayden was most interesting to me, in that Locher Room, because of some of her background. That, during her childhood, she was trained for dancing and was in the musical films Pennies from Heaven and the screen adaptation of Annie. They were 1981 and 1982 pictures directed by Herbert Ross (four years after he directed two acclaimed 1977 films, The Goodbye Girl and The Turning Point, and was Oscar-nominated for Best Director for the latter) and the legendary John Huston (1948 Oscar winning Best Director of Treasure of the Sierra Madre; with his last acclaimed film having been 1985’s Prizzi’s Honor for which he directed daughter Anjelica Huston to her Oscar). That fact that Hayden worked with those directors—in films starring likewise great actors Steve Martin and Bernadette Peters and Albert Finney and Carol Burnett—was really remarkable. I had forgotten about that, for a while, and was glad to be reminded of it by Alan Locher and Melissa Hayden.
Now, one person I would like to see on The Locher Room, from GL’s first half of the 1990s, is three-time Emmy winner Rick Hearst. Having watched some YouTube-published episodes of GL, from the 1990s, I have an even greater appreciation with what Hearst did with that role of Alan–Michael Spaulding. I would like to see Hearst and Sonia Satra—who played Lucy Cooper—as guests. Perhaps Frank Beaty, who was terrific in the crazy storyline (Brent/Marian), could be invited as well. (Beaty was nominated for an Emmy in 1996.) The only thing I don’t like with suggesting this is that, perhaps, one or two or all three of them may not really want this. You can never assume anything. These reunions can be a bit spooky to some people—that there are people who do not want to meet up and reminisce about a past part of their lives from a generation or so ago. (I graduated from high school 31 years ago. I never looked, while in the year 2019, to see if there was any possible class reunion. So, I do understand this. But, there is no harm in expressing this interest.)June 18, 2020 at 3:31 am #1203540117
All the [Trump] 2020 employees tell media anonymously that he’s losing reelection. They have no doubt he’s losing-the [Trump] 2020 employees in DC
That’s because they have read the polls—those which are made public and those which are internal—and they understand the electoral arena enough to sense which political party is more likely to prevail for U.S. President here in 2020.
Funny stuff. ‘They’ are idiots
This will be a landslide victory for the GOP and Donald Trump AND the world will be saved from globalism, socialism and Chinese dominance.
45th U.S. president Donald Trump is in position to become the 11th unseated president in United States history.
The catalyst: COVID–19. This includes massive unemployment. Striking on the watch of a Republican-affiliated U.S. president, eligible for possible re-election, timed closely with the upcoming general election.
Low-approval job polls numbers have been common and reported since Donald Trump’s presidency began in January 2017.
A “2020 Generic Congressional Vote” preference for the Democrats, as reported by Real Clear Politics, is lately in the 7- to 8-point range for national margin. (Since 2000, the political party which won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, also prevailed for U.S. President. And those five election cycles—2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016—were margins spreads, U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. President vs. U.S. House, of 0.92, 0.18, 3.34, 2.70, and 3.17 with their average 2.06. So, there tends to be a close alignment.)
For Donald Trump to win re-election, here in 2020, he cannot lose the U.S. Popular Vote by more than –3.50 percentage points. (His 2016 margin was a loss of –2.09.) In this scenario, and based off the 2016 map, he holds tipping-point state Wisconsin, his 270th electoral vote from 2016, while losing fellow Rust Belts Pennsylvania and Michigan as Democratic pickups. (Flaws: With exception of 1988, the trio voted the same in the ten prior election cycles of 1980 to 2016. And every president who won a second term who carried Pennsylvania and Michigan in his first election won both states with re-election.) And Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are, as I would label them, The Key Bellwether States of 2020 (as they turned out to be in 2016). They’re just about the full 100-percent rate of likelihood to back the winner again in 2020.
Another re-election scenario for Trump, like most presidents who won second terms, is for him to increase his second over his first cycle numbers—especially with his electoral-vote score. (All but two U.S. presidents—1916 Woodrow Wilson and 2012 Barack Obama—experienced gains.) Trump would need to increase his 2016-to-2020 support nationally and state after state—but this is not reflected in the polls nationwide and state after state—to make this possible. The challenge is finding where Trump is doing that.
Real Clear Politics has the poll reports (and with links). 2020 Trump is underperforming 2016 Trump in all his Republican pickups from 2016: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (He also flipped Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. And nearly all of them are polling as 2020 Democratic pickups. Depends on source and how closely one follows this. And there are the states’ voting patterns, particularly in relation to each other. Trump’s strongest chance for a 2020 Republican hold is bellwether-in-decline Ohio.)
Trump is shifting next to nothing that was in the 2016 Democratic column for losing nominee Hillary Clinton. States closest to his reach, to flip with re-election, like New Hampshire, Minnesota, and statewide Maine—with margins of –0.36, –1.51, and –2.96—are polling with solidifying 2016-to-2020 Democratic support. With possible exception of California, the 2016-to-2020 Democrats are polling with increased support in Top 10 and Top 20 populous states New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Virginia, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, and No. 21-ranked Colorado. Not all states have been polled. This is important because 1996 and 2004 re-elections for Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, both of whom increased their popular-vote margins by +3 points—included them flipping at least one state not carried in their first-term election wins.
Trump is experiencing decreased support in states which were 2012-to-2016 Republican holds (and are normally aligned to the Republican Party): Top 20 populous Indiana, Tennessee, Missouri and, outside the Top 20, states like South Carolina, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Utah.
The Emerging States—meaning particular states which have been long-established as aligned with the Republicans but are recently trending away from them and toward the Democrats—of Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are polling as conspicuous underperformances and are poised to flip for a 2020 Democratic presidential pickup winner with a sufficient margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. (My estimates for necessary U.S. Popular Vote margins: +4, for Arizona; +5, for Georgia; and +7, for Texas.)
If all states were to get polled, and they should be, I would anticipate Trump underperforming in at least 45 states. But, it wouldn’t be unthinkable if he is underperforming in 48 or 49 or 50. Past Republican and Democratic pickup winners, like 1976 Jimmy Carter (50), 1980 Ronald Reagan, 1992 Bill Clinton, and 2000 George W. Bush (each 49), experienced that.
At this rate, with these national polls, they indicate 2020 Democratic presumptive nominee Joe Biden will unseat Republican incumbent Donald Trump by at least +7 points in the U.S. Popular Vote. That would yield the 2016 Democrats’ map of 20 states, plus District of Columbia, and original 232 electoral votes. Pickups would come from the following (* 2016 Republican pickup):
21. * Michigan (–0.22; cumulative 248 electoral votes)
22. * Pennsylvania (–0.72; cum. 268)
23. * Wisconsin (–0.76; cum. 278—the tipping-point state from 2016)
24. * Florida (–1.19; cum. 307)
— Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (–2.23; cum. 308)
25. Arizona (–3.50; cum. 319)
26. North Carolina (–3.66; cum. 334)
27. Georgia (–5.10; cum. 350)
28. * Iowa (–9.41; cum. 356)
— * Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (–10.28; cum. 357)
29. Texas (–8.98; cum. 395)
30. * Ohio (–8.07; cum. 413)
31. Montana (–20.23; cum. 416)
32. South Carolina (–14.27; cum. 425)
I estimate U.S. Popular Vote margins of +8, +9, and +10 make those listed between Nos. 30 to 32 also flippable.
Along with this, it is likely the 2020 Democrats also flip majority control of the U.S. Senate. They will likely lose Alabama (because it is generally heavily aligned to the Republicans) but counter-flip: Colorado (which, since 2008, became realigned to the Democrats), Arizona (special), Maine, and North Carolina (same-party outcomes, for U.S. President and U.S. Senate, since 1972). Reaching that 51st seat, and with exceeding that number, involves Georgia (special and regular), Iowa, and Montana. (If all flip, that would be a new majority of 54 seats.) Anything more involves the likes of South Carolina, Texas, and Kansas (which may turn out to be the 2020 Democrats’ No. 33 best state, for U.S. President, whether or not carried; again, depends on national 2016-to-2020 shift and result in U.S. Popular Vote margin).
mellobruce—If you disagree, please respond and be specific with explaining why. But, I will conclude with this: By the stretch of no one’s imagination—not even a person who is completely full of shit—is Election 2020 shaping up to become a Republican landslide.June 18, 2020 at 2:04 am #1203540076
Ardejah Cat Harbin asks,
Have you ever questioned why a çertain actor, actress, or show won a Daytime Emmy?
I first watched the Daytime Emmys in 1985.
Last year was 2019.
So, I have questioned why a certain actor or actress won, in every year except one (1994), for 35 years.June 8, 2020 at 6:40 pm #1203522712
A lot of the best comedy series and best drama series which won four times—and, in comedy, NBC’s Frasier and ABC’s Modern Family each won five time—were just rubber-stamping.
Refer to the history of what else was eligible, and that they did not win as little as once, and it makes the significance of those four wins, for this and that series, feel less credible. They come across as wasteful.June 3, 2020 at 5:28 pm #1203515251
So I finally got around to watching some of these reunions (an ingenious idea conceived by Alan Locher btw) and it’s been such a treat….
A new Locher Room was published to YouTube today, Wednesday, June 3, which has Guiding Light’s Justin Deas, Frank Dicopoulos, John Driscoll, Beth Ehlers, and Fiona Hutchison. Their characters were Buzz Cooper, Frank Cooper, Coop Bradshaw, Harley Cooper, and Jenna Bradshaw.
I have not yet watched. But, I do appreciate these videos—the discussions—as well.
I found myself having really enjoyed Alan Locher talking with As the World Turns’s Ellen Dolan and Scott Holmes, who played spouses Margo and Tom Hughes, and was published to YouTube last Friday, May 29.
I am a bit behind on some of these. Which is OK. Entertainment Weekly got in on this with a week of actors from All My Children. And I know The Young and the Restless cast members have participated in some of these. So, it’s nice especially for people who are interested.June 1, 2020 at 7:24 am #1203511484
The date of The 12th Annual Daytime Emmy Awards, broadcast on CBS, was Thursday, August 1, 1985.
It was a year in which ABC’s All My Children led the series nominations, being represented in series, directing, writing, and all six performance categories. It won for the first time in its history the Emmy for writing. Just one from its thirteen nominated cast prevailed: lead actor Darnell Williams (as Jesse Hubbard), who would not get nominated again until 27 years later in 2012.
It was the first nomination for eventual five-time Emmy winner David Canary (as twins Adam and Stuart on All My Children). Future Oscar and Emmy winner Melissa Leo was among the “ingenue” nominees. (She played Peter Bergman’s Cliff Warner’s sister, Linda Warner on All My Children.)
It was the last nominations for 1982 lead actress winner Robin Strasser (Dorian Lord on ABC’s One Life to Live) and Deidre Hall (Marlena Evans on NBC’s Days of Our Lives).
It was the sole nominations for daytime vets Kristian Alfonso (as Hope Williams on Days of Our Lives) and Michael O’Leary (as Rick Bauer on CBS’s Guiding Light).
Kim Zimmer became the first lead actress winner from a series on CBS. (She won, of course, for playing Reva Shayne on Guiding Light.) The Daytime Emmys made lead actress available for the first time in 1974. (The winner: Elizabeth Hubbard, for playing Althea Davis on NBC’s The Doctors; of course, we also know her as Lucinda Walsh on CBS’s As the World Turns; her first nomination for that role and show came the next year, 1986.) Zimmer had the distinction of being the only one from her category to win for a CBS series from 1974 to 1996 until Jess Walton scored for playing Jill Foster on The Young and the Restless in 1997. It was rather strange it played out that way. But, other than Zimmer, the lead actress winners from 1974 to 1996 were from NBC or ABC.
There were lots of firsts in 1985. Five of the six acting winners won for the first time. There were also firsts for The Young and the Restless winning any acting Emmys. (Beth Maitland, who plays Traci Abbott, won for supporting actress. Tracey Bregman, who plays Lauren Fenmore, won for “ingenue.”) All My Children, not only for writing, scored in lead actor for the first time in its history (with Darnell Williams). Guiding Light, which won its first acting Emmy with Judi Evans (as Beth Raines) in 1984, won for the first time in its history the categories lead actress (Kim Zimmer) and supporting actor (Larry Gates as H.B. Lewis) as well as for directing. As the World Turns won for the first time in its history the category “young man” (with Brian Bloom as Dusty Donovan). (Side Note: I thought I recalled that category was titled “juvenile” when it was created and implemented in 1985.)
This was the first Daytime Emmys I watched.
Before the ceremony began, I figured that Beth Maitland would win. That Larry Gates would prevail. And that All My Children would win for writing. But, I didn’t feel informed enough to weigh in on predicting outcomes for the other main categories.
In the prior year, 1984, the Daytime Emmys were off the air. I think it may have been bad blood involving at least one network. That year’s winners were leaked to the press and, of course, the nominated actors were already aware of their category outcomes when they went into the off-air ceremony.
1985 marked the year the Daytime Emmys returned to television and were carried on a rotation basis on CBS (1985), NBC (1986), and ABC (1987).May 22, 2020 at 6:55 am #1203495086
This is the fifth nomination for Thorsten Kaye.
He received 2003 and 2004 nominations for Port Charles.
Add to that 2006 and 2009 nominations for All My Children.
Now is a 2020 nomination for The Bold and the Beautiful.