when was the last year a movie that won CC, BAFTA and guild lost the Oscar to one that won nothing?
1917 will be the #1 at the oscar with at least 4 awards, and Joker will be rewarded with only 2. they do not need to further reward a film that has had many nominations everywhere but always the same two victories, snubbing a well deserved make up…[Read more]
My predictions after BAFTA:
1917: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Editing/Mixing, VFX
Parasite: International, Screenplay
Hollywood: Supp Actor, Production Design
Joker: Actor, Score
– FvF (film editing)
– Bombshell (makeup)
– Little Women (costume design)
– Marriage Story (supp. actress)
– Jojo Rabbit (adapted…[Read more]
1917 won Dialogue/ADR at MPSE, and are both well positioned at BAFTA (that loves car movies). FvF has a chance for Best Film Editing at Oscar and I think it can prevail there and in sound mixing, leaving Best Sound Editing to the Best Picture champ in a tech sweep. On the stats FvF should prevail in sound categories, but 1917 is really Oscar…[Read more]
I agree with your analysis but I can see this happen: if they really loved Scorsese they could have rewarded him years ago with the universal acclaimed “The Aviator”, it’s sad but I don’t see this love for him and I think “The Departed” will remain his only personal Oscar.
I don’t think Tarantino needs a Director award, he never won an award in…[Read more]
16 hours from now
no film has ever won best editing without a sound nomination AND a BAFTA nomination.
– Only 5 films won without Sound nod: The Departed (BP), Crash (BP), Traffic, Winess, The Killing Fields;
– Only 4 films won without Bafta nod: TGWTDT (2 sound nods), Unforgiven (BP), Born on the 4th of July, The Right Stuff (2 sound nods)
FvF is still the…[Read more]
My opinion on this year races:
Best Picture is between “1917” and “Hollywood”: in any case, Mendes and Tarantino would be rewarded personally for what they did best, respectively Direction and Writing. Personally, I don’t think this is Tarantino best, but now “Hollywood” is too big to ignore in screenplay, even if it lose best picture (cons…[Read more]
Picture: Marriage Story / 1917
Screenplay: Marriage Story + Jojo Rabbit
Animated: Toy Story
I just re-watched “Green Book” and although I did not particularly like Ali, I do not think he could lose, cause:
– If “Green Book” wins the best picture, it will NEED to win the screenplay award and an acting one, because it has no chances elsewhere;
– If “Green Book” will NOT win best picture, this will be the only place to reward the film.
exactly! The Favourite should have won AT LEAST Critics’ Choice to be in the conversation without the WGA (I know it was inelegible, but this is always an important thing when it comes to oscar, remember 3BB). the victory at the critics choice is less important (65%) than the eligibility to the WGA (81%)
There is no narrative behind BP in this category.
First Man is technically the best, A Quiet Place is the most creative (did you see HOW the sounds were created in these two movies? BP is just sounds library).
The Best Picture nomination doesn’t count at all (50%), and the nomination at BAFTA is very predictive (80%). exceptions: Iwo Jima,…[Read more]