[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205026980

I am curious to see who will be the “cracker” of Best Actress predictions…! Like…. Penélope Cruz (2021), Sidney Flanigan (2020), Lupita Nyong’o (2019), Toni Collette (2018), Marion Cotillard (2014). You know, the actress we weren’t seeing at this point of the race but then seems obvious/undeniable.

Maybe:
* Penélope Cruz, L’IMMENSITÀ
* Léa Seydoux, UN BEAU MATIN
* Rebecca Hall, RESURRECTION

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205024368

Owl-Always-watching wrote:

Women Talking is an ensemble. Doubt that Frances is lead unless the script was majorly changed from book.

I am considering the predictions center placement. I know it is not the most accurate at the time (since they consider Dakota Johnson a lead for CHA CHA REAL SMOOTH when Apple is campaigning her as supporting), but if McDormand stands-out a bit I can see MGM campaigning her as lead to avoid the internal competition (Foy, Mara, Buckley, etc).
I’ve ordered WOMEN TALKING (novel) two days ago – waiting for the delivery. Maybe a read will tell who is who.

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205024243

Right now I am going for:
1 – Blanchett, TÁR
2 – Yeoh, EEAAO
3 – de Armas, BLONDE
4 – Ackie, I WANNA DANCE WITH SOMEBODY
5 – McDormand, WOMEN TALKING
….
6 – Deadwyler, TILL
7 – King, SHIRLEY
8 – Colman, EMPIRE OF LIGHT
9 – Robbie, BABYLON
10 – Mirren, GOLDA

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205024186

wolfali wrote:

Am I the only person who thinks Margot Robbie could be snubbed? If Babylon ends up being a more respected than loved endeavour I can see her getting edged out by a strong field and the fact that other contenders might inspire more no.1 votes on the ranked ballot than she does with her being a regular awards fixture (à la Adams in Arrival).

I also think Robbie might not make the final cut this year. ASTEROID CITY is an ensemble piece in which she’s a clear supporting player according to rumours (and her place in Focus Feature’s cast listing of the movie). AMSTERDAM is not going to be embraced by the industry I say, considering David O. Russell’s past with on-set abuse/aggression and sexual misconduct. BABYLON seems the epic movie with a larger-than-life cast you don’t know who will be the standout, but my bet goes to Diego Calva and Brad Pitt.

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205024135

Let’s add “Quietly Yours” from Persuasion to the contenders list.
The movie is not that great, but the song is beautiful

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205023394

Predicting WAKANDA FOREVER, right now for:
* Best Picture
* Best Production Design
* Best Costume Design
* Best Makeup & Hair
* Best Visual Effects
* Best Sound

Nice shot:
* Best Adapted Screenplay
* Best Original Score

Trickier to get:
* Best Director
* Best Supporting Actress (Bassett)
* Best Editing

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205023291

Richie Rich wrote:

Apparently Focus is aiming for 2023 as well.

I believe this July acquisition of ASTEROID CITY might be for a 2022 release strategy. Focus Features has released a big Oscar contender/Best Picture player every year as their top priority with one or two other contenders for other categories. Have a look (Best Picture nominated are in bold):
2017 – Darkest Hour / Phantom Thread
2018 – BlacKkKlansman / Mary Queen of Scots / Boy Erased (not Oscar nominated but lots of buzz for Hedges and Kidman)
2019 – Harriet / Everybody Knows (failed)
2020 – Promising Young Woman / Emma. / Never Rarely Sometimes Always (failed Oscar noms, but it was a huge contender for Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay)
2021 – Belfast / Last Night in Soho (failed Oscar noms, but it performed beyond expected with other award bodies)

For 2022, Focus Features has TÁR (acting showcase, maybe screenplay and score) and The Northman (technical wonder, that might fare good in below the line categories, but it will be hard to compete against other technical features with more Best Picture buzz). That’s why a 2022 release of ASTEROID CITY makes sense in the Focus slot – Anderson is a respected auteur, the ensemble is stellar and the synopsis suggests it is likely to please audiences.

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205023283

I wonder why GoldDerby still has Dakota Johnson in the Best Actress list, when it seems Apple is going to campaign her in Best Supporting Actress.
It’s just… I do believe she has a nice chance in BSActress and I want to predict her

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1205005384

My July (Why Not?) Predictions:

#1 – Whoopi Goldberg, TILL
#2 – Zoe Kazan, SHE SAID
#3 – Michelle Williams, THE FABELMANS
#4 – Lily Gladstone, KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
#5 – Stephanie Hsu, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
—-
#6 – Laura Dern, THE SON
#7 – Dakota Johnson, CHA CHA REAL SMOOTH
#8 – Scarlett Johansson, ASTEROID CITY
#9 – Rooney Mara / Jessie Buckley / Claire Foy, WOMEN TALKING
#10 – Jean Smart, BABYLON

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204997068

Is Joanna Scanlan eligible for Best Actress for her BAFTA-winning role in AFTER LOVE?

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204997066

Right now, the ones who really look to be in play:

* Emma Thompson, GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE (Is it eligible for the Oscars? Rave reviews and she’s a legendary actress)
* Léa Seydoux, UN BEAU MATIN / ONE FINE MORNING (Cannes critical acclaim and Sony acquired this film)
* Michelle Yeoh, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE (I believe the AMPAS will go for this movie in the screenplay category only, but Yeoh is a strong player for sure)
Note: Dakota Johnson is really a supporting player in CHA CHA REAL SMOOTH

Doubts:
1 – Is Margot Robbie a lead in BABYLON?
2 – Who’s the female lead in Wes Anderson’s ASTEROID CITY? Scarlett Johansson? Or Margot Robbie? Some might suggest Tilda Swinton, but she’s a supporting player for Anderson most times. Plus, it is said to be a love story, so I am expecting something more in the vein of THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS with a strong couple of leads (despite the huge cast).
3 – Is Laura Dern a lead or supporting for THE SON?

My lineup right now:
1 – Emma Thompson, GOOD LUCK TO YOU, LEO GRANDE
2 – Cate Blanchett, TÁR
3 – Olivia Colman, EMPIRE OF LIGHT
4 – Naomi Ackie, I WANNA DANCE WITH SOMEBODY
5 – Léa Seydoux, UN BEAU MATIN

6 – Ana de Armas, BLONDE
7 – Regina King, SHIRLEY
8 – Michelle Yeoh, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
9 – Florence Pugh, DON’T WORRY DARLING
10 – Danielle Deadwyler, TILL

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204989431

Right now, I am going this way:

#1 – Cate Blanchett, TAR
#2 – Ana de Armas, BLONDE
#3 – Olivia Colman, EMPIRE OF LIGHT
#4 – Naomi Ackie, I WANNA DANCE WITH SOMEBODY
#5 – Dakota Johnson, CHA CHA REALLY SMOOTH

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204888967

I am keeping an eye on these for awards across the board:
* AFTER YANG, directed by Kogonada
* ASTEROID CITY, directed by Wes Anderson
* DON’T WORRY DARLING, directed by Olivia Wilde
* NOPE, directed by Jordan Peele
* PINOCCHIO, directed by Guillermo Del Toro
* RUSTIN, directed by George C. Wolfe
* THE FABELMANS, directed by Steven Spielberg
* THE KILLER, directed by David Fincher
* THE KILLERS OF THE FLOOR MOON, directed by Martin Scorsese
* THE NORTHMAN, directed by Robert Eggers
* WOMEN TALKING, directed by Sarah Polley
.
Also heard really good things about Dakota Johnson’s performance in “Cha Cha Real Smooth” or Anna Diop in Sundance winning “Nanny”.

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204865890

jjjmoss wrote:

Oscar vs. ASC – Cold War with 1 tech nom lost to Roma with 4 tech noms.

Lion with 2 tech noms lost to LLL with 9 tech noms.

Skyfall with 5 tech noms lost to Pi with 8 tech noms.

1/5 vs. 8

1 vs. 7

So when they split it’s in favor of the tech-ier movie. The tech-iest movie is Dune. The Bafta winner is Dune. The ASC winner is Dune.

It is a valid point to… but I believe TPOTD got enough tech noms in order to hold a “viable” Best Cinematography Oscar win, plus DUNE missed that Best Director win…! Don’t get me wrong: I am perfectly okay with a win for both, I am just trying to predict

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 342 View Predictions]

#1204865637

The ASC win for Greig Fraser (DUNE) was a huge boost, but if we look at ASC winners list and the Critics’ Choice we can see critics’ choice awards have a better record of “predicting” the Best Cinematography winner at the Oscars. CC are also better than BAFTA in this race:

2009 – Avatar (Oscar, CC) / The White Ribbon (ASC) / The Hurt Locker (BAFTA)
2010 – Inception (Oscar, CC, ASC) / True Grit (BAFTA)
2011 – Hugo (Oscar, CC) / The Tree of Life & War Horse (ASC) / The Artist (BAFTA)
2012 – Life of Pi (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Skyfall (ASC)
2013 – Gravity (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2014 – Birdman (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2015 – The Revenant (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2016 – La La Land (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Lion (ASC)
2017 – Blade Runner 2049 (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2018 – Roma (Oscar, CC, BAFTA) / Cold War (ASC)
2019 – 1917 (Oscar, CC, ASC, BAFTA)
2020 – Mank (Oscar, ASC) / Nomadland (CC, BAFTA)
2021 – The Power of the Dog (CC) / Dune (ASC, BAFTA)

So, it seems the only time CC and ASC went in different directions with ASC winning was last year with Mank vs. Nomadland. In every other situation the CC winner was the Oscar winner.

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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