[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203799153

The Person Formerly Known As Linguini wrote:

Are you actually saying Academy voters will hesitate to vote for Hopkins because he’s old and white? You know the last time a black man won this category was in 2006, and that only 4 black men have ever won this award? A decade of OscarsSoWhite has not kept the Academy from repeatedly shafting Black winners to Supporting categories while continuing to award White people in Lead.

That being said, I can see Chadwick winning. Yesterday I thought Hopkins was absolutely going to win between the 2, but I’m more receptive to arguments for Boseman winning now.

I just want the best performance to win to be honest

Edgar Pereira
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203795087

My predictions:
#1 – Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
#2 – Frances McDormand, Nomadland
#3 – Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
#4 – Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
#5 – Sophia Loren, La vita davanti a sé
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The thing is: Davis has the hype, the showy part, the talent and audiences want her to win a 2nd Oscar; McDormand seems safe for a nomination, but not for a win; Amy Adams is overdue, but it’s gonna be Glenn’s movie, not hers; the AMPAS likes when singers go actresses lately (Mary J. Blidge and Lady Gaga) and Day is lucky because she has Lee Daniels directing her and an intriguing figure to portray onscreen; and Loren has the “screen comeback of a legendary actress” narrative.
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#6 – Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
#7 – Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
#8 – Kate Winslet, Ammonite
#9 – Jennifer Hudson, Respect
#10 – Michelle Pfeiffer, The French Exit
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Kirby seems lost in the middle of all the Netflix actresses campaigns, Mulligan seems to be this year’s Lupita / Colette, Winslet has the raves but doesn’t have the passion, people still mourn JHud in Cats (and her whole career after Dreamgirls) and Pfeiffer’s The French Exit underperformed with critics.

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203795035

Still adjusting my predictions after the my personal “Boseman category placement drama”, but I think it goes like this:
NYFCC – Odom Jr.
LAFCA – Odom Jr.
NSFC – Dance
NBR – Murray
Critics’ Choice – Abdul-Mateen II, Baron Cohen, Ben-Adir, Dance, Odom Jr., Rylance, Stanfield
SAG – Abdul-Mateen II, Baron Cohen, Dance, Odom Jr., Murray
BAFTA – Baron Cohen, Dance, Odom Jr., Murray, Rylance, E. Grant
Golden Globe – Abdul-Mateen II, Baron Cohen, Dance, Odom Jr., Rylance
Oscars – Baron Cohen, Dance, Odom Jr., Rylance, Stanfield

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203794989

I’m still rethinking all my Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor picks since this Boseman category placement. I believe Delroy is pratically out of the Oscar lineup, but I do believe he might well sneak a GG nod or a SAG nom.
Right now:
NYFCC – Lindo
LAFCA – Yeun
NSFC – Hopkins
NBR – Boseman
CRITICS’ CHOICE – Ahmed, Boseman, Hanks, Hopkins, Kaluuya, Oldman, Yeun
SAG – Boseman, Hopkins, Kaluuya, Oldman, Yeun
BAFTA – Boseman, Hopkins, Kaluuya, Oldman, Ben-Adir
Golden Globes (Drama) – Boseman, Hopkins, Kaluuya, Lindo, Oldman
Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical) – Baron Cohen, Broadbent, Davidson, Murray, Patel
Oscars – Boseman, Hopkins, Kaluuya, Oldman, Yeun
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It… looks… like… a bloodbath!

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203794329

abelfenty wrote:

A24 should campaign Steven Yeun in Supporting. He’s not touching Lead now that Chadwick is going there.

Yes, please!
MINARI’s buzz is rising once again because of the last Fall film festivals it screened and since A24 has announced it as they main awards push, I do believe Yeun might have a chance at the Oscars. But I guess A24 has already announced they’ll campaign Yeun as a lead

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203794272

JackO wrote:

welp RIP delroy

They have just killed Delroy’s Oscar dream!
It means DA 5 BLOODS is going to get a Best Original Screenplay nomination at best, because Netflix will campaign MANK, THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 and MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM across the board. They will be the studios top priority movies. It’s a shame in my opinion: DA 5 BLOODS is one of the most interesting movies of the year and Lindo’s outstanding in it.
I wonder if Sacha Baron Cohen will now go supporting for THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203794017

wolfali wrote:

Yes but there was still McDormand’s performance and Ben-Adir and many others still in the equation. I mean after all the excuse by yourself and others on here for why she won the Volpi Cup was “because it was empty” and “because they couldn’t award McDormand”. I’m not saying Kirby is winning the Oscar but the fact she beat McDormand shows that she does have the support of critics (Pieces of a Woman also came third in critics’ list of films even though they saw things like Ammonite (which says it all about the latter film’s chances tbh)).

I feel Kirby will be a Elizabeth Olsen for MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE of this season: a critically raved performance that gets noticed and recognized by critics, but ends snubed by the great award precursors (BAFTA might be the exception).
I’m predicting Davis, McDormand, Adams, Day and Loren right now (but here on GD, I’ve Kirby instead of Adams because of the odds and I still have some hope she might surprise me)

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203789896

Anya Taylor-Joy

Edgar Pereira
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203789886

ENSEMBLE CAST
#1 – The Trial of the Chicago 7
#2 – Mank
#3 – One Night in Miami
#4 – Minari
#5 – Da 5 Bloods

MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
#1 – Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
#2 – Anthony Hopkins, The Father
#3 – Gary Oldman, Mank
#4 – Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
#5 – Steven Yeun, Minari

FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
#1 – Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
#2 – Frances McDormand, Nomadland
#3 – Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
#4 – Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
#5 – Sophia Loren, La vita davante a sé

MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
#1 – Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
#2 – Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
#3 – Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7
#4 – Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
#5 – Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
#1 – Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
#2 – Olivia Colman, The Father
#3 – Youn Yhu-jung, Minari
#4 – Helen Zengel, News of the World
#5 – Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

STUNT ENSEMBLE
#1 – Tenet
#2 – Mulan
#3 – Birds of Prey
#4 – Judas and the Black Messiah
#5 – Free Guy

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203789835

MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM trailer gave me Comedy-Musical vibes….! Could Netflix push Davis for the GG for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical and Amy Adams for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama?
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I mean, I was going to publish my GG predictions, but MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM trailer left me wondering about it

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203788162

estrelas wrote:

NYFCC has been extremely unpredictable the last two years, so I wouldn’t say anyone is a lock there. With that said, I have a feeling the top3 critics are going to split between Frances and Vanessa.

I would bet Carey Mulligan for the NYFCC. I’m expecting Mulligan to follow the same awards path of Lupita Nyong’o last year – the biggest difference is that she’s more likely to be nominated (and win) the GG, which will boost her Oscar chances.

Edgar Pereira
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203786841

I re-watched it before writing a review.
My TOP 5
#1 – Mark Rylance
#2 – Sacha Baron Cohen
#3 – Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
#4 – John Carroll Lynch
#5 – Frank Langella (his one-note character started brilliantly, but then he became too “one-note”… I don’t blame Langella, but the character’s real-life one note actions)
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NOTE 1: Eddie Redmayne is the clear lead
NOTE 2: I didn’t find Jeremy Strong award worthy at all
NOTE 3: Michael Keaton and Kelvin Harrison Jr.’s cameos were brilliant

Edgar Pereira
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203786031

estrelas wrote:

It is. And it’s not because our industry sucks. We have some incredible masterpieces. “Tabu”, “Mysteries of Lisbon” and “Diamantino” are perfect examples. Unfortunately, our Academy sucks when it comes to submissions and never submits the best we have. Lets hope that changes this year indeed. Hopefully we’ll submit “Vitalina Varela” but I’m not getting my hopes up too high.

The thing is, I believe if our Academy selects “Vitalina Varela” we might have a chance not only at the Oscar, but I would say the critics prizes also. The “Tabu” non-submission still bothers me every time I think about it…!

Edgar Pereira
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203783961

* Scarlett Johansson being campaigned as supporting for LOST IN TRANSLATION in the middle of the awards season (the Critic’s Choice bite that one). I’m sure it costed her the Best Actress nomination she deserved over Keisha Castle-Hughes. I know they intended to avoid vote splitting with her performance in GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING, but it worked in reverse

* Viola Davis in FENCES. She was a lead and with that performance she would have beaten Stone and Huppert. I believe she would have swept the entire season for Best Actress. The history making win we are expecting from Davis this year could (and SHOULD) have happened in 2016/17

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
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[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 321 View Predictions]

#1203781906

Is there any confirmation SBC is going to be campaigned lead for TToC7? Redmayne was the lead (with the main arch) but SBC is the standout for me (in a supporting borderline leading part). Plus, with BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM I wonder if he will be campaigning for that one if the movie proves to be as good as the first one

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

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