[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204700111

estrelas wrote:

Dunst missing with TPOTD making into ensemble, would be weird.

Yes, it would. But remember Amanda Seyfried and Regina King both missed SAG noms. Critics aren’t SAG and Dunst’s character is not as likeable as DeBose’s, Moreno’s, Balfe’s, Ellis’ or as tragic and central as Negga’s. It is a great performance, but the competition is fierce (and she will be featured in the ensemble nom).

Plus, I believe Moreno and Zegler might get nominated over other actresses in their respective categories because of WSS love and because they are POCs (they are good and worthy banners for inclusion)

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204699353

pierremg wrote:

How crazy one can be to leave Gaga out? She’s surely in the top #3, maybe top #2 when it comes to SAG.

My thoughts: Stewart is the frontrunner and she’s very very good; Colman is as respected as she is brilliant, so she won’t miss; SAG loves Kidman (this woman holds 9 individual noms + all the ensemble ones); Haim benefits from being the cool new kid in town and she’s great in her acting debut in a movie by a huge auteur; and I think Zegler will coattail with my predicted WWS love. Gaga also makes a lot of sense (showy performance in audience-friendly movie), but the thing is… someone will be left out! Still, I totally support a Gaga nod!

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204699326

Right now:

ENSEMBLE
#1 – West Side Story
#2 – Belfast
#3 – The Power of the Dog
#4 – CODA
#5 – King Richard
ALT: The French Dispatch

LEAD ACTOR
#1 – Smith, King Richard
#2 – Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
#3 – Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!
#4 – Dinklage, Cyrano
#5 – Rex, Red Rocket *
ALT: Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) & Hill (Belfast)

LEAD ACTRESS
#1 – Stewart, Spencer
#2 – Colman, The Lost Daughter
#3 – Kidman, Being the Ricardos
#4 – Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
#5 – Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
ALT: Gaga, House of Gucci

SUPPORTING ACTOR
#1 – Hinds, Belfast
#2 – Dornan, Belfast
#3 – Kotsur, CODA
#4 – Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
#5 – Faist, West Side Story
ALT: Bernthal, King Richard

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
#1 – DeBose, West Side Story
#2 – Ellis, King Richard
#3 – Balfe, Belfast
#4 – Moreno, West Side Story
#5 – Negga, Passing
ALT: Dunst, The Power of the Dog

BEST STUNTS
#1 – No Time to Die
#2 – Dune
#3 – Black Widow
#4 – Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
#5 – Nobody
ALT: Spider-Man: No Way Home

* Simon Rex is an interesting case that might touch SAG – a “lesser” actor who was offered a nice role that he elevated. It’s a great performance and this “from 0 to hero” vibe might be inspiring for the SAG community. Plus, this guy has been campaigning his ass off!

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204635085

Vicki Leekx wrote:

She might only hit the Globes like Banderas but is (still) being underestimated for that 4th nod. Sony know what they’re doing…

It took me 5 minutes to remember Cruz is a 3-times Oscar nominee (her 3rd nod for NINE is truly forgetable). She deserved a nom for MADRES PARALELAS, she’s acting gold in it. The thing is… by this time Banderas managed to win the NYFCC and appeared in a couple of critics groups Best Actor shortlists. Cruz hasn’t yet.

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204629013

If I had to submit any Best Actress predictions today it would go like this:

#1 – Stewart, SPENCER
#2 – Kidman, BEING THE RICARDOS
#3 – McDormand, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
#4 – Zegler, WEST SIDE STORY
#5 – Gaga, HOUSE OF GUCCI

#6 – Haim, LICORICE PIZZA
#7 – Colman, THE LOST DAUGHTER
#8 – Chastain, THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE

* help * I can’t ignore HOUSE OF GUCCI box-office and the fact general audiences like the movie, but I also shouldn’t underestimate the Best Picture heat of LICORICE PIZZA (Haim’s awards vehicle). But then… How can Colman be left out?
Stewart and Kidman seem safe, McDormand is getting raves and she’s an AMPAS darling. Zegler is the star of a HUGE Best Picture contender… I don’t know… too many contenders for only 5 spots

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204628655

To be honest… hands down about this best actress race. I will just play by the odds and wait for the televised awards

Edgar is just tired

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204628625

People underestimating her again wbk

I believe McDormand is just like Streep: if she’s in the race, she will make it until the end of the race. The AMPAS loves her. BAFTA loves her. SAG loves her.

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204628612

And reactions to THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH screenings are stellar (so far)
I am loving the chaos. McDormand coming for acting Oscar nomination #7… God! What a mess of Oscar race

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204628101

Right now:

#1 – Benedict Cumberbatch, THE POWER OF THE DOG
#2 – Will Smith, KING RICHARD
#3 – Andrew Garfield, TICK, TICK… BOOM!
#4 – Denzel Washington, THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
#5 – Joaquin Phoenix, C’MON C’MON

#6 – Jude Hill, BELFAST
#7 – Leonardo DiCaprio, DON’T LOOK UP
#8 – Peter Dinklage, CYRANO
#9 – Nicolas Cage, PIG
#10 – Simon Rex, RED ROCKET

NOTES – C’MON C’MON is getting some late passion from those who’ve seen the movie, so I believe Phoenix will rise in time for enough Oscar traction. And I won’t underestimate BELFAST since it seems tailor-made for Oscar tastes and Jude Hill got rave reviews. Please, no DiCaprio this time… he is enough of a superstar already and he can get in next year for FLOWERS OF THE KILLER MOON

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204627957

Zuranthium wrote:

It was a cold December evening as Jason browsed over Goldderby, nearly a week after West Side Story premiered to raves. A trashy site to be sure, but the only one around with a working Oscar predictions interface. Taking a long sip of hot chocolate, he sighed and opened up the supporting actor predictions interface. Down and down he scrolled, looking for the year’s supporting actor winner. Nearly 100 men with no chances at all to be nominated are listed, but still not the year’s best supporting actor winner. “What a piece of shit”, he muttered, “I’m going to make a better website than this.”

And so came the final downfall of Goldderby. It’s told in hushed tales that Tom O’Neil could only repeat the same line when later interviewed in his ramshackle inland empire sublet, far away from the home he once knew in Hollywood. “Mike..Faist…why didn’t I just add Mike Faist.”

Yeah… I think it’s time for GoldDerby to add Mike Faist to the Best Supporting Actor list…! I mean, DRIVE MY CAR is already in the predictions forum after that NYFCC win a couple of days ago, but not Faist after 1 week of rave reviews and Best Picture heat for WSS

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204624749

DrewN92 wrote:

I’m hearing so many people singling out Mike Faist for WSS. I think this category is open enough for him to easily come in if the performance is strong, especially considering WSS is now likely a top tier BP contender.

I am predicting him at the moment. He’s my #5:
#1 – Hinds, BELFAST
#2 – Smit-McPhee, THE POWER OF THE DOG
#3 – Dornan, BELFAST
#4 – Simmons, BEING THE RICARDOS
#5 – Faist, WEST SIDE STORY

I am keeping an eye on Jonah Hill (DON’T LOOK UP), Ben Affleck (THE TENDER BAR + lots of “maybe it’s time” talk) and Kotsur (CODA)

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204619480

I am taking out Nightmare Alley from my Best Picture predictions. Even the good reviews aren’t enthusiastic enough… in order for a movie to get in Best Picture it needs #1 votes and Nightmare Alley doesn’t look like it is gonna be someone’s favorite of the year.

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204618592

smartypants27 wrote:

Ngl I feel like Blanchett will be the front runner but we will wait and see

I’m a big Blanchett fan, but the ONLY 2 reactions I’ve caught on twitter regarding NIGHTMARE ALLEY screening say it might be too noir for the AMPAS tastes and that Cooper is the MVP. It seems it will be a big contender in the below the line caegories, but not much word on the acting or Best Picture potential just yet

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204618488

alittle03 wrote:

I’m really stubborn about Negga, like so much so that even if she got snubbed by every precursor (which I probably will never predict this season because I find that highly unlikely), I’d still ultimately predict her to make the final 5 at the Oscars. Like I’m sorry if I sound annoying with my rooting for Negga, but my heart can’t bear the thought of her not making it in.

The best performance I’ve seen all year (alongside Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG) so far. Negga deserves that Oscar nomination by a mile.
Just think that she was able to land that Best Actress nod back in 2016/17 when she was contending alongside Stone, Huppert, Portman, Streep, Bening, Adams or Emily Blunt. She’s got something and it will keep her in Academy members’ minds

Edgar Pereira
.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

[Edgar Pereira Joined: Jun 29th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 324 View Predictions]

#1204618277

National Board of Review Predictions

Best Film
Winner: Belfast
Alternate: West Side Story

Best Director
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Alternate: Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Best Actor
Winner: Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Alternate: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Actress
Winner: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Alternate: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor
Winner: Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Alternate: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress
Winner: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Alternate: Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Breakthrough Performer
Winner: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story tied with Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza *
Alternate: Jude Hill, Belfast

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: A Hero
Alternate: The Hand of God

Best Animated Film
Winner: Flee
Alternate: Luca

Best Original Screenplay
Winner: Licorice Pizza
Alternate: A Hero

Best Adapted Screenplay
Winner: The Power of the Dog
Alternate: The Lost Daughter

Best Ensemble
Winner: Belfast
Alternate: Don’t Look Up

Top Ten Films
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Flee
The Power of the Dog
Spencer
The Tragedy of MacBeth
West Side Story

* like what happened back in 2011, when Rooney Mara (THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO) and Felicity Jones (LIKE CRAZY) shared this honor

Edgar Pereira
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Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/