[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205223793

“Decision to Leave” is right where it needs to be with this long-list. I still believe this makes him the favorite for that 5th director slot.

Despite all the “Women Talking” and “Avatar” talking points, I still think the biggest loser here is “The Fabelmans”…

I don’t think it will win either Best Picture or Best Director Oscars having done that poorly in the BAFTA Director long list. And overall it underperformed below-the-line. This reads as strictly “polite” nominations come Oscar nomination morning (probably still Pic and Director, but Screenplay may be too competitive). It’s running in 4th or 5th in all it’s categories – likely to walk out with none.

Time to start looking for the Best Director somewhere else, IMO…

I think “Banshees” is poised to become the front-runner now…

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205222363

Lots of love for “Decision to Leave” on here.

De Waele for “Close” really pops out. Haven’t had the opportunity to see it yet, but I’m excited to finally catch it.

I wouldn’t leave out

BEST ACTRESS – Maya Vanderbeque, “Playground” (again, if the Oscars spoke its language, could definitely see this playing well with the Academy)

Same with the entire cast of “Murina’s” supporting players – Danica Curcic (Supporting Actress), Leon Lucev & Cliff Curtis (Supporting Actor)

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205222303

John_Nguyen wrote:

Best Actress- Tang Wei Decision to leave

Ditto… And if the campaign had been Neon’s honestly she would be much more in the thick of it.

Also…

Best Actress – Anamaria Vartolomei, “Happening”

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205222187

Is “Matilda” even eligible for Oscars?? Did it meet release qualifications stateside??

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205222181

Recently watched “Holy Spider” and I couldn’t agree more with the love its lead actress is generating on this thread. Superb!

Unfortunately, I don’t think many performances from foreign language films will be shortlisted.

I agree Krieps gets in (mostly because of residual “Phantom Thread” love).

Other than that, I DO think that Wei gets in for “Decision to Leave.” My gut says that movie does pretty well over all.

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205221612

I definitely think that Cassidy will be long listed for “The Wonder”. I think that film will play like the “The Dig” in 2020 – showing up all over the place…

Also, am I the only one EXPECTING Thompson to be there for “Matilda”??

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205220995

I can’t wait for the longlist reveal! And I’ve loved reading this thread over the past few weeks. Some really good predix in here…

I know it’s easy to overreact to the list, but I can’t help it! It’s just fascinating to get an “inside” look at how a voting body like this is watching/experiencing films and how a jury can help expand the conversation….

No lie, I tend to love the jury picks – their director inclusions are just awesome. And I do feel like you can tell just who the jury picks are…

That being said, does anyone want to engage in some final NO GUTS, NO GLORY picks!! It’s our final shot to put some good (or bad) energy out there for our wishful thinking surprises, snubs and shut-outs…

HERE GOES: NO GUTS, NO GLORY (BAFTA LONGLIST EDITION)

– “The Whale” SHORTLISTED for Best Picture
– “Decision to Leave” SHORTLISTED for Best Picture
– “Everything Everywhere All At Once” SNUBBED for Best Picture

– “Emily” SHORTLISTED for Director
– “Catherine Called Birdy” SHORTLISTED for Director
– “Corsage” SHORTLISTED for Director

– Daniel Kaluuya SHORTLISTED for Actor, “Nope”
– Angela Bassett SNUBBED from Supporting Actress, “Black Panther”
– Emma Thompson SHORTLISTED for Supporting Actress, “Matilda”
– Keke Palmer SHORTLISTED for Supporting Actress, “Nope”
– Harry Melling SHORTLISTED for Supporting Actor, “Pale Blue Eye”
– Colin Farrell SHORTLISTED for Supporting Actor, “The Batman”
– Andrew Scott SHORTLISTED for Supporting Actor, “Catherine Called Birdy”

– “Blonde” SHORTLISTED for Adapted Screenplay
– “Holy Spider” SHORTLISTED for Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing
– “The Quiet Girl” SHORTLISTED for Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography
– “EO” shortlisted for Cinematography
– “Decision to Leave” SHORTLISTED for Film Editing, Cinematography, Visual Effects

– “MEN” SHUT OUT (all categories, even British Film)
– “White Noise” SHUT OUT (all categories)
– “Bardo” SHUT OUT (all categories, except International Film)

What other surprises are people sniffing out on the eve of the shortlist release???

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205206442

Hey, I didn’t do too bad… haha 🙂

– I’ve always been worried about how EEAAO would play with members of the below-the-line branches. It reads to me that these categories can get especially “insider-ish,” and the outstanding work on the film overall runs a risk of getting eclipsed by the mere fact that its artisans and craftspeople are simply not “insiders” for the most part (smaller independent projects, not too much recognition for the previous film work among their respective guilds.) So…. I would definitely be worried if I was A24. If this is their dog for the win, they need some repping from the tech categories. And I think A24 wants to win bad… (Some will argue from the perspective that CODA won without ANY nods in these categories, but a movie like EEAAO is more specifically designed to excite and energize these members. CODA never even had a shot for Cinematography, Production Design, Costume, etc. It’s the nature of the beast. You don’t want these branches looking down on EEAAO).

– THE BATMAN – Not surprised. Great work, but they’ve never really responded to the use of music in Matt Reeves’ films (all excellent). Here especially, I thought they would hold the film’s use of Nirvana’s track against the work as a whole (eyeroll)…

– TOP GUN: MAVERICK – Surprised by its inclusion in VFX. I think it indicates how popular the film must be, considering how alot of their marketing/campaigning for the movie has read as anti-VFX (IMO) and more heavily on practical work, camera rigging, etc. They keep reminding everyone how much work was required to capture the footage in-camera to create the authenticity of the flight and aerial sequences. If it makes the top 5 nominees (when Dunkirk could not), I would certainly feel like the wind is shifting in their direction for a win…

– YES!!! That foreign film list is an absolute bloodbath!!! Have a seen a good bunch, have heard great things about the others… just awesome. We can just substitute the title of that list from “International Film Shortlist” to “Best Picture of the Year Nominees” and it would be win for everyone. No complaints here.

– Tough day for “RRR.” Like “EEAAO,” it really needs those above-the-line members to bat for it hard – writers, actors, producers, directors, executives. I DEFINITELY believe we’re gonna get a foreign film in the BP 10 lineup. Question remains if “RRR” has the votes… Could see these groups splintering unfortunately – directors for “BARDO,” writers for “DECISION TO LEAVE,” producers for “RRR,” etc. It could cost them all in the end…

– Love to see the shout-outs for Blonde and Amsterdam (I thought the craft work was solid on both). Have to catch up with “Crimes of the Future”!!! Cronenberg in a makeup category again is just so, so right.

– The score from “Don’t Worry Darling” is…. a choice, for sure. Really hate when these lists come out and you have some glaring shut-outs. I mean “Don’t Worry Darling” for Original Score and “The Northman” for nothing. It just reminds you that A LOT, A LOT of these people are just simply not watching the movies. They’re just not…

– AND… if they can’t even put in “The Northman” screener because it didn’t make $20 million on opening day (therefore not worth their time), NO WAY are they even gonna check out DECISION TO LEAVE, HOLY SPIDER, EO, ARGENTINA 1985 for consideration in categories other than International Film. It’s just shameful… the complete disregard for these (and other fantastic non-shortlisted foreign films) in the craft categories. Shame! Shame!

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205203337

Also, forgot to mention… No TAR for Best Picture!!! What??!!

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205203335

AMG wrote:

BAFTA LONGLIST PREDICTIONS
(Those marked with an asterisk are who I’m predicting to be jury saves in Round One of voting)

BEST FILM
Aftersun
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
She Said
Top Gun Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
Sophie Hyde – Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King
Maria Schrader – She Said
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun
*Sally El Hosaini – The Swimmers
*Nikyatu Jusu – Nanny
*Laura Poitras – All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
Park Chan-wook – Decision To Leave
The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field – TÁR
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
*Edward Berger – All Quiet On The Western Front
*Oliver Hermanus – Living
*Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness

BEST LEADING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Olivia Colman – Empire of Light
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Margot Robbie – Babylon
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
*Rosy McEwan – Blue Jean
*Emma Thompson – Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
*Tang Wei – Decision To Leave

BEST LEADING ACTOR
Austin Butler – Elvis
Timothee Chalamet – Bones and All
Tom Cruise – Top Gun Maverick
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
*Harris Dickinson – Triangle of Sadness
*Park Hae-il – Decision To Leave
*Daniel Kaluuya – Nope

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Claire Foy – Women Talking
Lashana Lynch – The Woman King
Carey Mulligan – She Said
*Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness
*Janelle Monae – Glass Onion
*Aimee Lou Wood – Living

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt – Babylon
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
Micheal Ward – Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking
*Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
*Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
*Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Really thoughtful and insightful list!

The exclusion of EEAAO from the Best Picture longlist… VERY INTRIGUING! What makes you think it’s possible for the film to be overlooked in the race?

I was also curious on your thoughts about the inclusion of Top Gun: Maverick in Best Picture. I thought that would strictly be an American phenomenon.

And why do you think it’s looking like more Brit-leaning titles might not make the cut on the BP longlist – specifically, “Living,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “All Quiet on the Western Front”?

And I know you posted these a while ago, but have your predix changed at all with the recent surge of “RRR” in the percursors? Or do you think that specific movie isn’t going to play well in the UK?

Great list, again…

[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205203071

Qoslca wrote:

Excited! These are a few shortlist nominations I’m hoping for:
All Quiet on the Western Front in Makeup & Hairstyling + International Feature
Elvis in Visual Effects + Sound.
Thirteen Lives in Sound.
The Banshees of Inisheerin + Puss in Boots: The Last Wish + Pinocchio in Original Score.

I think tomorrow might be a very good day for Netflix’s “All Quiet on the Western Front.” I feel like it’s been flying below the radar in a lot of these categories, which is surprising consider the amount of work that went into the film.

For a short while, AQOTWF had some buzz after TIFF. It died down after that, possibly because Netflix chose to prioritize Glass Onion. But I always felt it was the kind of film the could register with the Academy in a big way – 6 or 8 nominations easily.

I definitely think the work is there on the screen, it’s just a matter of “are members even watching it.” If it runs the category shortlists tomorrow (VFX, Sound, Score, Makeup, Int. Film) then it might go a long way into proving that people are watching and responding to it.

If not, then I’m afraid it might be shut out altogether, dismissed as “just another remake”.

BUT between a good day in tomorrow shortlists and POSSIBLY a good day at the BAFTA longlists/shortlists in the coming weeks, it might just be able to muscle its way back into the thick of the awards conversation. Maybe even back into Best Picture????

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205203026

Would love to see Holy Spider get some love…

What categories do you think it could surprise in? Score? Sound?

I can’t wait to see it! It opens in my area early next year…

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205203023

No Guts, No Glory:

“Amsterdam,” shortlisted for Makeup & Hairstyling
“Bones and All,” shortlisted for Makeup & Hairstyling
“White Noise,” shortlisted for Makeup & Hairstyling
“The Greatest Beer Run Ever,” shortlisted for Sound (Kevin O’Connell)
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” shortlisted for Original Score
“My Father’s Dragon,” shortlisted for Original Score
“My Father’s Dragon,” shortlisted for Original Song
“Bardo,” makes the next round of voting for Visual Effects

Wishful Thinking version –

would be heartening to see some love sent “The Northman” way (IN ALL CATEGORIES!!) and I was a big fan of the work on “MEN”

No Guts, No Glory Snub predix –

“Top Gun: Maverick” snubbed from Visual Effects
“Everything Everywhere All At Once” snubbed from Visual Effects
“The Batman” snubbed from Original Score
“The Whale” snubbed from Makeup & Hairstyling
“The Fabelmans” snubbed from Sound Design
Marvel Studios shut out… (no films in any categories)

Anyone else want to add their hopes/ suspicions for tomorrow….

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205202958

Does anyone want to use this thread to also pitch some “NO GUTS, NO GLORY” picks for tomorrow’s shortlist?

Throw out at least three under-the-radar-contenders for any of the shortlist categories (i.e. No “The Batman” here, since it stands an excellent chance in any of these categories). It could be a film you’re hoping to see (wishful thinking) or suspecting could crash the race (dark horse)…

Anything to come to anyone’s mind??

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[diagonz351 Joined: Jul 15th, 2015 Topics: 3 Posts: 25 View Predictions]

#1205163303

Forgot to post these up. I believe they announce tomorrow. Not sure what time.

If anyone else has any ideas about how certain categories might fill out, I’d love to hear about it.

If no one else starts a nomination reactions thread, let’s share our thoughts about the most surprising inclusions and omissions here.

Independent Spirit Awards 2022 Predix

BEST FEATURE

Aftersun
Bones And All
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Triangle Of Sadness
Women Talking

(Spoiler – Armageddon Time)

BEST DIRECTOR

Charlotte Wells, “Aftersun”
Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Ti West, “Pearl” (or “X”)
Michel Franco, “Sundown”
Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”

(Spoiler – Ruben Ostlund, “Triangle Of Sadness”)

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE

Deadwyler, “Till”
Goth, “Pearl”
Lysette, “Monica”
Mescal, “Aftersun”
Plaza, “Emily The Criminal”
Pope, “The Inspection”
Russell, “Bones and All”
Sandler, “Hustle”
Thompson, “Good Luck To You, Leo Grande”
Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

(Spoiler – Hall, “Resurrection”)

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE

Buckley, “Women Talking”
De Leon, “Triangle Of Sadness”
Henry, “Causeway”
Hernangomez, “Hustle”
Min, “After Yang”
Johnson, “Cha Cha Real Smooth”
Quan, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”
Rossi, “Emily The Criminal”
Rylance, “Bones And All”
Union, “The Inspection”

(Spoiler – Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All At Once”)

BEST SCREENPLAY

After Yang
Cha Cha Real Smooth
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Montana Story
Triangle Of Sadness

(Spoiler – Apollo 10 1/2)

BEST FIRST FEATURE

Emily The Criminal
The Inspection
Murina
Smile
Watcher

(Spoiler – Palm Trees and Power Lines)

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Bodies Bodies Bodies
Emergency
Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Vengeance

(Spoiler – God’s Country)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Bones And All
Everything Everywhere All At Once
A Love Song
Montana Story
Nanny

(Spoiler – Murina)

BEST FILM EDITING

Aftersun
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Hustle
Women Talking
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(Spoiler – The Inspection)

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD

The African Desperate
The Cathedral
Funny Pages
A Love Song
We’re All Going To The World’s Fair

(Spoiler – Soft & Quiet)

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD

Armageddon Time

(Spoiler – Triangle Of Sadness)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

Decision To Leave
EO
Happening
Joyland
Saint Omer

(Spoiler – Banshees of Inisherin)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All The Beauty And The Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire Of Love
The Territory

(Spoiler – Three Minutes: A Lengthening)

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