[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204764503

pacinofan wrote:

I still have some foreign films to see but for now my list would be…

1) West Side Story
2) Flee
3) Dune
4) Judas and the Black Messiah
5) The French Dispatch
6) The Tragedy of Macbeth
7) C’mon, C’mon
8) Luca
9) Passing
10) The Velvet Underground

“The Power of the Dog” just misses my list currently. I feel the need to watch it again to properly judge it. I saw it very soon after reading the book and I feel it affected my opinion too much.

I watched half of “The Power of the Dog” last night and I am liking it even more than my first viewing. I am sure it will end up somewhere on my top ten list. It is a profound visual experience and I feel I would really love it if I ever saw it in the theater.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204762529

I strongly prefer “Dog Day Afternoon” and Al Pacino in that film over “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Jack Nicholson.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204761968

I still have some foreign films to see but for now my list would be…

1) West Side Story
2) Flee
3) Dune
4) Judas and the Black Messiah
5) The French Dispatch
6) The Tragedy of Macbeth
7) C’mon, C’mon
8) Luca
9) Passing
10) The Velvet Underground

“The Power of the Dog” just misses my list currently. I feel the need to watch it again to properly judge it. I saw it very soon after reading the book and I feel it affected my opinion too much.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204699126

Bad Education
God’s Own Country
The Dreamers
The Swimming Pool (2003)
Water Drops on Burning Rocks
Y Tu Mama Tambien

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204687743

Best Picture: West Side Story

Best Director: Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch

Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, West Side Story

Best Cinematography: Dune

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Film Editing: West Side Story

Best Costume Design: Dune

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Dune

Best Sound: Dune (Maybe I would go with “WSS” to throw another award its way, but the wall of sound effect of “Dune” is hypnotic.)

Best Visual Effects: Dune

Best Original Score: The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song: “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”, Encanto

Best Animated Feature: Luca

Still need to see “Licorice Pizza”, “The Lost Daughter”, “Macbeth” and most of the foreign language films in contention. I saw “Titane” but was not a fan, though I loved the director’s previous film “Raw”, and did not think “Lamb”, “The Hand of God” or “I’m Your Man” were strong enough to give best international feature though all three are good movies overall.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204669273

FreemanGriffin wrote:

It has been awhile since there has been a winner from a film without a BP nomination. Since 2000 Jim Broadbent, Chris Cooper, George Clooney, Heath Ledger, Christopher Plummer, and Christoph Waltz (for Django Unchained) – it has been nine years since the last non-BP nominee won the category.

“Django Unchained” was a best picture nominee.

[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204667173

crabbie wrote:

Campion is the queen of sensuality, psycho-sexuality, and erotic subtext. No one could have done this film except her vision. NEXT! You should really stop pretending you like TPOTD when you keep shading it in every chance you get to uplift West Side Story.

Exactly. Jane Campion brings a sensuality to it that is not in the book. In the book Phil’s lone bathing out in the forest is another part of his hyper-masculine routine. He thinks bathing in an actual bath is feminine and he does not want his workmen to think of him bathing at all. So he does it in a secret location every few months. It is not a romantic reminder of his time with Bronco Billy.

There is no scene at all of the workmen publicly bathing in the book.

[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204667129

UmOkaaayyyyy wrote:

Seriously, why on Earth are people doubting Chastain? She will easily be nominated for SAG and she has a good chance of winning that…. The other two locked SAG noms will be Colman and Stewart. The question is who will be the the final two, which I would guess will be Kidman and Zegler… Haim has no chance (nor does she deserve any nom). Gaga is not gonna last much longer (reactions are wildly all over the place for her and the movie). Cruz and Thompson, while great, seem an after thought at SAG … Hudson could get in at SAG. She’s campaigned more than anyone and has a stronger shot than people realize. Berry shouldn’t be counted out at SAG either~ her screenings have gone over very well. And don’t be surprised if Emilia Jones sneaks in at SAG as well because of the overall love for “CODA”…

With all that being said, I can easily see Chastain win SAG. It’s a great performance that actors truly love in a film that most of them like and she’s overdue. I think Colman is her biggest competition at SAG right now. Stewart’s nom at SAG will be her prize there as the general public does not like that film at all (seriously don’t listen to all the stans and that’s no offense to Stewart who is quite good in the film).

So, the point is~ don’t sleep on Chastain…

I currently see things going this way~

Critics Choice: Stewart
Globes Drama: Stewart
Globes Musical: Zegler
BAFTA: Colman
SAG: Chastain
Oscar~ um… that one I’m still wrestling with… but Chastain will be a threat ya’ll.

Chastain’s film got reviews mediocre reviews very similar to “House of Gucci” but came out a while ago, barely anyone saw it in the theatre, and it very quickly disappeared.

I think she was very good in a mess of a movie, I cannot say the same for the terrible Andrew Garfield, but I only have her at five in my likely nominees and I may remove her. Oscar voters only nominate poorly reviewed films when they are backed in a corner. Lady Gaga has the fact that her film is a surprise sensation and her NY Critics win to back up her nomination. Chastain, whom I personally prefer to Gaga, has nothing like that going for her. If she gets in it will be mostly because the highly acclaimed foreign performances by Penelope Cruz and Renate Reinsve did not dominate the critics’ awards as many expected, allowing for a completely English language slate of the best actress Oscar nominees.

[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204667092

FreemanGriffin wrote:

As usual you miss my point: I am talking about academy members, not critics groups! As usual the cultists around this film misunderstand the reasons a few of us think it is vulnerable. It’s not the end of the world if it wins but there are several movies that are better than it is.

I am a fan of “The Power of the Dog” but not a giant one. It may even just barely miss my top ten list once I see the acclaimed foreign films of the year… though I doubt anyone will supplant Benedict Cumberbatch as my choice for best actor. When I saw it, I had some issues that I thought a large enough group of Oscar voters might share, I do not always give my personal opinion such weight, and lead them to look to “Belfast” or “West Side Story” in best picture. Since then though “Belfast” has barely been a critics’ award player and “West” is getting the rep as a box-office loser that general audiences never wanted. Even if “Belfast” and “West Side Story” dominate the Golden Globes are Oscar voters going to care about that this Oscar season? “Licorice Pizza” has not done as well with the critics’ awards as expected and is getting a rep that it is about an older woman grooming a young man. That may be wrong headed and completely unfair but the notion is probably enough to keep it out of real best picture contention.

So “The Power of the Dog” is the most likely best picture winner… by far. It has to do with the critics but also practical and cultural considerations. I had “Belfast” atop my best picture odds for a long time, and then switched to “West Side Story” briefly because I thought their entertainment factor might trump “Dog” in best picture. Now I have “The Power of the Dog” on top and I doubt I will be changing it unless something wildly dramatic happens.

P.S. My favorite films amongst the almost certain best pictures nominees are “West Side Story” and “Dune”. Should be seeing “Licorice Pizza” Christmas weekend.

[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204664838

a spoonful of sugar wrote:

Lmao, I can think of at least 5 other performances that are better than Smith’s and aren’t being recognized by critics groups the way they should be.

Will Smith is not going to win best actor with any of the major film critics. The NBR are film enthusiasts not primarily film critics.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204664820

Luca Giliberti wrote:

Barb and Star, ROFL. Jamie is coming to win for that and not Belfast.

That is just crazy enough to happen!

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204664811

I have mixed feelings about the film “Nightmare Alley”, I much prefer the 40s film, but the set design was stunning.

Ummmm I liked the set design in “Barb and Star”… I guess.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204664798

What the…?

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204664787

estrelas wrote:

literally. and this is a trifecta…

It seems odd to refer to this critics’ awards season as basic when they keep honoring a film-maker as idiosyncratic as Jane Campion and a three hour long Japanese film.

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[pacinofan Joined: Nov 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 866 View Predictions]

#1204662911

LAFCA predictions:

Best Picture: Licorice Pizza (spoiler: The Power of the Dog)
Best Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car)
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car or Simon Rex, Red Rocket)
Best Actress: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (spoiler: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza)
Best Supporting Actor: Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (spoiler: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)
Best Supporting Actress: Ruth Negga, Passing (spoiler: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story)
Best Screenplay: Licorice Pizza (spoiler: Drive My Car)
Best Cinematography: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Bruno Delbonnel, Tragedy of Macbeth)
Best Production Design: Dune (spoiler: West Side Story)
Best Editing: West Side Story (spoiler: The Power of the Dog)
Best Score: Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (spoiler: Hans Zimmer, Dune)
Best Foreign-Language Film: Drive My Car (spoiler: The Worst Person in the World)
Best Animated Film: Flee (spoiler: The Mitchells vs. the Machines)
Best Documentary: Summer of Soul (or … When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (spoiler: Flee)