Forum Replies Created
April 25, 2021 at 8:58 pm #1204226790
wow i m in 212 placeApril 24, 2021 at 8:49 am #1204219121
Ben Zauzmer says nomadland has 67,8% chances of winning using math. It’s a bit more than the 66% of la la land but less that the 74% of brokeback mountain. But trial has 12,1% chances of win and PYW 7,4% with that model , what is far for the 23% of crash and the 21% of moonlightApril 23, 2021 at 12:43 pm #1204217651
GOLDDERBY ANONYMOUS VOTER WINNERS Picture: Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 (TIE) Director: David Fincher and Chloe Zhao (TIE) Actor: Chadwick Boseman Actress: Andra Day Supporting Actor: Sacha Baron Cohen and Daniel Kaluuya (TIE) Supporting Actress: Yuh-Jung Youn Original Screenplay: The Trial of the Chicago 7 Adapted Screenplay: Minari and Nomadland (TIE)
minari tie in a category is not nominated?April 23, 2021 at 9:52 am #1204217183
LOL PYW has a lot of second place votes in the secret ballots but no first place votesApril 21, 2021 at 4:51 pm #1204214108
WTF “Will win: “Nomadland”
Could win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7″
Should win: “Nomadland”
Should have been here: “Onward””
https://variety.com/2021/awards/awards/academy-awards-2021-final-predictions-nomadland-chadwick-boseman-minari-promising-young-woman-netflix-1234956987/?fbclid=IwAR1SxxB5hQiMThmIHutxQjx4gyq2X7x6u-aN4iyfCyJpeQdQITJm41heQmoApril 18, 2021 at 10:28 am #1204207333
Doesn’t work like that. Your insistance that a very popular film that caters to a set and known demographic in the Academy HAS to go home empty handed is your obvious bias against the film. Like Green Book, Hacksaw Ridge, Bohemian Rapsody, JoJo Rabbit etc. You look for the obvious and possible categories that it could win along with that lone Oscar win. For it to make sense. That’s how openminded Oscar predictions are done…..without personal feelings towards the films. Green Book = Original Screenplay + Supporting Actor. Best Picture. Spotlight, Parasite and Crash = Screenplay. Best Picture. 1917, Gravity, La La Land, The Revenant, Roma = Not Screenplay films. Directors showcases. Lose Best Picture.
this is very simply: without screenplay or director win it’s not gonna win best picture. That has nothing to do with personal feelings. If trial had won WGA then yes, i would have thought the movie could win. But this is not the case, so stop being so ridiculousApril 18, 2021 at 9:15 am #1204207234
PYW should have absolutely walked that ACE Comedy category, it’s dead everywhere at the Oscars apart from maybe Screenplay IMO.
I don’t think that losing the ACE comedy will affect PYW at all because it was obvious that it not gonna win edition at the Oscars and the ACEs were given in the middle of the final vote of the OscarsApril 17, 2021 at 2:11 pm #1204206086
I’ve said this so many times but I have a bad feeling Trial will take Original Screenplay and maybe Best Picture. Someone said on here I think the huge dislike for the film on these forums is really influencing our decision making for Trial. Trial has Editing locked, I think. Also the protest thing is a very hot topic in the news media right now… idk I feel that it can really influence a good amount of votes.
It seems to me or are you saying that trial can win screenplay at the Oscars because of winning the ace today?April 13, 2021 at 5:14 pm #1204199055
The way it could win is by being consistently in the top 4 vote getters in the preferential ballot – and Green Book showed us that you do not need to even be competitive in other major categories – since the preferential ballot there have been films like Spotlight which only won 2 Oscars and Green Book won very few too. I just think Minari is in 2nd, not Chicago 7, and definitely not Promising Young Woman, and imo if there is going to be an upset it would be Minari.
if it can’t win bafta foreign lenguage agains’t another round, SAG agains trial, can’t earn an editing nom, can’t get at least in the longlist for bafta best picture, and isn’t competitive for win in script or director is pretty obvious is not second. It can’t even apply to rare cases like gladiator (won guilds but lost script and director in oscars) or bravehart (lost guilds but won director in oscars). Minari is bad in both thingsApril 13, 2021 at 1:46 pm #1204198759
and was not nominated to bafta best picture o oscar for best edition. has everything againstApril 13, 2021 at 1:45 pm #1204198754
Just to clarify: I think Nomadland is going to win. I just think if there is an upset it will be Minari and not Chicago 7. A film that gets most of their votes in the top 3 or 4 has a stronger chance than one that scores all over the place and I could see a scenario where not everybody places Nomadland in their top 4 slots. I am predicting Nomadland but if there is an upset I really do think it would be Minari and not Chicago 7 or Promising Young Woman, etc. (Sound of Metal is my #1 choice, btw, and it has no chance of winning).
but has no sense thinking minari can upset when did badly in previous awards ( it loses sag and bafta for foreign lenguage) and its not competitive to win in best director and best scriptApril 13, 2021 at 8:42 am #1204197932
I have this strange feeling that the preferential ballot system (I assume they are still using it for BP?) could mean that Nomadland won’t win and I think it would help Minari and not Chicago 7. If there is going to be an upset for Best Picture I think Minari would be the one to do it. Just last year 1917 won both PGA and DGA and lost both at the Oscars. I am still sticking with Nomadland for BP and Chloe Zhao is a 100% lock for Best Director but BP could be a category with an upset this year.
the only possible upset is promising young woman and seems that have like 2% of chances of upset and nomadland 98% chances of winning. All the other movie have 0% chances of win