Forum Replies Created
August 4, 2020 at 12:52 am #1203625602
I think Aniston is winning for The Morning Show. The Crown did well but missed out on so many deserving nominations (O’Connor, Lapotaire, Dance, Menzies). Maybe I’m biased bc imo Colman didn’t have the kinds of episodes that Foy did, but I don’t think her odds looked good. Ozark did much better, but the McTeer and especially Pelphrey snubs were not good. Considering they got three writing nominations but neither of them in, I’d probably bank on Aniston since The Morning Show wildly overperformed with even Duplass and Carell getting in. Aniston also won SAG, it’s clear the actors branch is very behind the show. Mbatha-Raw not getting in wasn’t great, but she was in a stacked field without the material that Pelphrey had or the screentime McTeer got. I’m not sure about the Witherspoon snub, imo she just wasn’t great and it showed but actors clearly love Aniston on the show and she’ll probably bag it.
She definitely has a lot of support and it’s perfectly plausible that TMS takes two acting prizes if Crudup does benefit from Succession vote splitting.August 3, 2020 at 11:32 pm #1203625525
What?!?! Did I say Levy or Ali shouldn’t bother because there is no way they are winning? I know you are a massive Schitt’s Creek fan but I hope you understand that I didn’t say Dan Levy or Mahershala Ali can’t win. I said it’s Shalhoub’s to lose. That does not mean there is no way Levy or Ali can win, it means that with Brown not bothering along with Amazon’s hard campaigning for Shalhoub and the fact he’s coming off a second consecutive SAG win that Shalhoub (at least in my eyes) is the frontrunner and is in a good position to take this. Just because I think he is likely to take it that does not mean there isn’t a possibility he loses.
Look, I think you’re taking what I said a little too deeply here – I’m literally just disagreeing with you that it’s Shalhoub’s to lose. That’s it. Maybe my phrasing was a little combative so I apologise if that’s the case.
But saying ‘it’s Shalhoub’s to lose’ does imply that you feel his competitors are miles behind, and I don’t think that’s true. I took your comment to mean that because of Brown’s action, Shalhoub was pretty much a lock – my point is that Brown is unlikely to have any impact on anything. If I have misunderstood your phrasing, again – it’s easily done and your comment did imply that’s what you meant as putting one point immediately after the other denotes relation between them.
And I’m not saying you hate Schitt’s Creek, nor am I disagreeing with you on Shalhoub because of anything to do with Schitt’s. I’m literally just disagreeing with you. We agree on some things, we disagree on others. Plenty of times you’ve taken comments I’ve made and picked out the one thing you disagree with just so you can disagree. And that’s fine.
It’s a discussion, so please don’t take it personally if I disagree with you because it isn’t.August 3, 2020 at 1:17 pm #1203624542
For SNL I think Murphy is the most likely to win, followed by Adam Driver and then Brad Pitt. Both Murphy and Driver are on their fourth Emmy nomination, and should have won already for previous better work. Murphy has a much stronger overdue narrative and all of his previous noms were for SNL so if any of them are getting it, it’s him.
Currently I have that category:
Brad PittAugust 3, 2020 at 12:18 pm #1203624175
Bradley Cooper is in talks to star in the next PTA film. They are aiming to start production this fall so the film could be ready for the 2022 season. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/bradley-cooper-talks-star-paul-thomas-andersons-1970s-drama-1304473
I reckon they’re more likely to stick it in 2023 season – 2022 is going to be stacked. I honestly think it might take a couple of years to clear the backlog and get back to normal release schedules.
Pretty much all of the awards bait for 2021 is now coming out for 2022 season. They’d be smart to hold onto it.August 3, 2020 at 7:39 am #1203623345
No, I mean he’s the only nominated Guest Actor who appeared in multiple episodes of the show he’s nominated for. Which won’t have done him any harm. But then I remembered that Dev Patel was in two eps of Modern Love so I’ll happily rescind that comment.
My point is, as it has been along, that while both Maisel and Schitt’s are missing in key categories Maisel’s road to a Writing nom should have been easier than Schitt’s road to a Guest mom – WWDITS got three noms and Maisel couldn’t grab one?August 3, 2020 at 7:25 am #1203623311
To be fair though one would think Victor Garber is a big name. Or at least a bigger name than Luke Kirby. After all he is a 6 time Emmy nominee, 4 time Tony nominee and has appeared in three SAG ensemble nominated (and one winning) film. Otherwise I agree with what you’ve said.
He’s a bigger name than only Luke Kirby, who won last year and is the only nominee in his category with multiple episodes. Everyone else in that category is a bigger name than him, at least in the current climate – no matter how many awards he’s won in the past.
Which basically proves my point that for Schitt’s to get a Guest Actor in, in a category that turned out to feature some very big names plus last year’s winner and the added element of Fred Willard, a beloved actor who recently died, would have been an overperformance.August 3, 2020 at 1:16 am #1203622970
Can Maisel still win Series, or is Schitts Creek being overestimated? I can’t decide!! It is like Sophies Choice 😂
It depends on which misses you think are more significant – Schitt’s missing Dustin Milligan in Guest Actor, or Maisel missing Jane Lynch (who won for the same role only last year) and Writing.
It’s unusual for a show to win Comedy Series without any Guest noms, but Schitt’s is a show that doesn’t have a lot of Guest characters – they only submitted Milligan and Victor Garber, in a category that contains some seriously big names.
Only four shows have won Series without a single Guest nom in the last 25 years:
Sex and the City 2001 – only Series win
Arrested Development 2004 – only Series win
The Office 2006 – only Series win
Veep 2015 – first of four consecutive Series wins, and the only win without Guest noms
Likewise, only four shows have won Comedy Series without a Writing nom in the last 25 years.
Frasier 1997: third consecutive Series win, first and only Series win without Writing nomination
Will and Grace 2000 – only Series win
Friends 2002 – only Series win
Modern Family 2012, 13, 14 – had two consecutive Series wins with Writing noms, then three withoutAugust 2, 2020 at 4:25 am #1203621744
I think Yankee will come out a year later, so: 2022: Best Actor contender (Annette), Best Supporting Actor contender (The Last Duel) 2023: Best Actor contender (Yankee Comandante) I think he will be nominated for Annette and Yankee Comandante, and he could possibly win for the latter.
Also entirely possible! I suppose Comandante could be a lengthy production process so it may fall that way.
Personally I’d prefer that as I think if both came out the same year he’d be more likely to get in for Comandante, but I want to see Leos Carax get that Academy recognition. If he gets in for either of course, 2022 is going to be stacked so nothing is guaranteed for any movie.August 2, 2020 at 1:57 am #1203621666
Annette is pretty much confirmed for Cannes 2021 so will probably come out in the fall of next year. Which means that depending on when Yankee Comandante comes out, Adam Driver could have three big baity roles for 2022 season (Annette, Yankee, The Last Duel)August 1, 2020 at 12:55 am #1203620085
So my Supporting Actress ranking : 1. Yvonne Orji (People keep thinking Annie Murphy will break Borstein’s winning streak but no Supporting Actress (unless you’re including Kristen Chenoweth) has won this category since Doris Roberts in 2005.
I know this probably isn’t what you mean but – no Supporting Actress has won Supporting Actress since 2005?July 31, 2020 at 1:36 pm #1203619178
The belief that Bateman has no passion at all may exist only in these forums. He got two nominations after all, the other being for a series that received no other nominations.
There’s something about Jason Bateman that means he’s never appealed to me as an actor. I don’t know what it is – he just doesn’t.
But you’re spot on – he clearly has more support from voters than GD anticipated.July 31, 2020 at 1:33 pm #1203619172
See above when I mentioned people predicting Aberfan in Writing and how ridiculous it was. That’s not even the most deluded combination. Some people are predicting two acting wins for TMS and/or two acting wins for Killing Eve and then predicting TMS or The Crown in Directing whilst having Succession, Ozark and The Crown as the top 3 (in that order).
Killing Eve is defo not getting any acting wins and TMS is nowhere near for directing. People who are predicting those clearly haven’t watched any of the other shows.
Two acting wins for TMS isn’t that far fetched though, as Aniston and Crudup both have a shot. Yeah it’s not likely it gets both, but it’s not that far out there.