Forum Replies Created
December 7, 2018 at 12:47 pm #1202693460
Just opened here and I loved it, and also see it easily taking a handful of awards.
Because it’s likely to take a lion share of craft nominations, I think it naturally becomes the front-runner for Production Design, Costumes, and Make-Up (all of which are exquisite and richly-deserved). That doesn’t mean it’s a lock to win those, but it puts everyone else in an uphill battle.
I think it’s also a strong contender for Original Screenplay. LGBTQ themes have always played stronger in the writing categories than in Picture (see CALL ME BY YOUR NAME, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, CRYING GAME, MILK, IMITATION GAME, etc.) and it helps that it’s darkly funny as well as incredibly articulate. I love FIRST REFORMED but I think the nomination will be honor enough and most people will see ROMA as a visual extravaganza, so the only real threat is the feel-good GREEN BOOK which (for better or worse) treats its subject with kid gloves.
So that puts it at 4 Oscars, which is a formidable tally that I think only a few other films this year can equal (if lucky). It’s not outside the realm of possibility for FAVOURITE to also pick up an acting award, though it will admittedly be an uphill battle. I think Cinematography would be a strong contender if ROMA wasn’t in play. But 9 nods total will be an absolute minimum and the weight of that momentum will put it at a distinct advantage across the board.December 7, 2018 at 12:00 pm #1202693415
Shameless Plug: The Smith Rafael Film Center in the Bay Area has just locked their annual For Your Consideration series in January, with all the following official Foreign Language Film submissions scheduled to play:
THE GUILTY (Denmark)
THE HEIRESSES (Paraguay)
I AM NOT A WITCH (UK)
MARLINA THE MURDERER IN FOUR ACTS (Indonesia)
NEVER LOOK AWAY (Germany)
REUBEN BLADES IS NOT MY NAME (Panama)
SECRET INGREDIENT (Macedonia)
THE WILD PEAR TREE (Turkey)
WOMAN AT WAR (Iceland)
YELLOW IS FORBIDDEN (New Zealand)
Plus they are screening SHOPLIFTERS (Japan) now and will open CAPERNAUM (Lebanon) later this month.
December 7, 2018 at 11:50 am #1202693403
- This reply was modified 2 days, 12 hours ago by Filmatelist.
I also believe the fact that Regina King is primarily a TV actress may work against her as it did for critics’ fave Laurie Metcalf last year.
Metcalf never appeared opposite both a Best Actor-winning performance (RAY) and a Best Supporting Actor-winning performance (JERRY MAGUIRE). Plenty of people will associate King as just an actress who appears all over, not exclusively TV.December 6, 2018 at 1:43 pm #1202691754
The comedy categories ran much truer to form, but that is probably because there were fewer contenders there overall. I’m glad for the strong Vice showing, especially considering all of the Bush attention this week, but am also curious if that one lives up to the hype for me. I am also now interested to see Stan and Ollie to see if Nick Robinson was left out for being less of a name or if Reilly really gave a better performance.
Of course, having A STAR IS BORN in the Drama Category instead of the Musical one is preposterous along the lines of considering THE MARTIAN a comedy. And to a lesser extent, the same applies to BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY.
How are they any less a musical than LA LA LAND, INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS, NINE, LA VIE EN ROSE, DREAMGIRLS, WALK THE LINE, RAY or DE-LOVELY (none of which you could consider a “comedy”)?
It’s absurd.December 6, 2018 at 10:52 am #1202691583
Here’s another list that includes SOULS as well as some other titles in the previous links:December 6, 2018 at 10:31 am #1202691540
Here is another list of favourites https://www.imdb.com/list/ls047130219/
Thanks for the lists. Both feature FAUVE, which I’ve also seen and wouldn’t be surprised if it got the cut, mostly because it’s got kids in crisis, which the Academy **LOVES**. It’s a genuinely good film (if a little predictable), but given that last year’s winner was pretty terrible but also had a kid at its center (not to mention other recent decent winners CURFEW and SING plus the truly awful HELIUM), we know where the voters’ weak spot is.December 6, 2018 at 10:24 am #1202691530
I know it got shortlisted for Visual Effects but I think the other animated film to make the Top 20 Incredibles 2 is far more likely to make the cut.
Actually, the only 2 times an animated film was nominated for Best VFX, they were both stop-motion films. Even when WALL-E got nominations in more categories than any other animated film (6), it couldn’t score one there. I’d say ISLE OF DOGS is far more likely to get an effects nod than the Pixar film.December 6, 2018 at 10:15 am #1202691513
Glenn Close and Robert Redford are beloved actors not Sam. Reason why he didn’t show up in the supporting category.
There isn’t a big enough eye roll for this. 100 foreign journalists don’t vote him in and he’s not “beloved”? He isn’t an icon, but if Robert Forster could nab an Oscar nod (for a film that got zero other nods), Elliott shouldn’t have any problem doing it. He’s Hollywood royalty–not in the paparazzi/red carpet sense, but because he & his wife have been in the industry forever and he’s seen as a reliable workhorse, the kind of actor that never gets enough credit for always being terrific. This is a setback in optics only. Will he win? Who knows, but there really is no front-runner in this category now.December 5, 2018 at 11:01 am #1202690015
Don’t know why INCREDIBLES
Incredibles 2 has already won the award simply by being a Pixar film. That’s a given.
Don’t know why this is necessarily a “given”. FINDING DORY, CARS 2, and MONSTERS UNIVERSITY were all Pixar sequels that had one thing in common–their original film got nominated but they didn’t. Since I thought I2 was a tired retread of the first film, I really hope it doesn’t make the cut and while the odds are that it will, I don’t think it’s necessarily a foregone conclusion.December 3, 2018 at 12:46 pm #1202688418
It looks like Foreign Language Film at the Oscars currently is a 3-way race between this film, Shoplifters, and Cold War.
I think Roma will win Cinematography and possibly FLF, but I think the hype around it winning Picture or Director will turn out to be just a critics thing. NYFCC have done a bad job foreshadowing the BP Oscar winner overall with their choices like Lady Bird, Zero Dark Thirty, La La Land, American Hustle, and Boyhood getting nominated for yet ultimately losing the big prize on Oscar night. I’m betting the same will be true of Roma.
If ROMA gets a Best Picture nomination, then it has FLF in the bag. No film has every been nominated for both and failed to lose the latter*. I doubt it can win Picture but Director is still a strong possibility.
(*THE EMIGRANTS were nominated for both, but in different years so doesn’t count)December 3, 2018 at 12:38 pm #1202688403
People here forget that a superhero film, Big Hero 6, already won Animated and this movie was from Marvel. So I don’t see the fact Spider-Man ItSV is a superhero movie being a impediment to the win, specially considering Stan Lee’s death.
Except that it didn’t have to compete against another superhero movie the way SPIDER-VERSE will. Plus, BIG HERO had to compete against only one other major studio offering, so that gave it a big boost, too.November 29, 2018 at 2:23 pm #1202685515
I’m not counting on the Globes to embrace “The Favourite”. They’re probably gonna give all the drama awards to ASIB and the comedy ones will be random picks that aren’t really Oscar contenders so far. Just like they did with La La Land 2 years ago.
LA LA LAND competed in the Musical/Comedy category at the Globes, as will A STAR IS BORN. That will be THE FAVOURITE’s biggest hurdle with the HPFA: having to face off against the Gaga juggernaut. But I think it still will earn at least 4 GG nods, and maybe as high as 6.November 28, 2018 at 12:17 pm #1202684286
If any non-Disney/Pixar film wins this year, it will be ISLE OF DOGS. Not only is the craftsmanship impeccable, but Wes Anderson already has 6 Oscar nominations to his credit and is well thought of among Academy members–especially the actors’ branch.
I hope SM:ItSV is a good film, but I don’t see any way it beats out *another* superhero film in that category. Regardless of what you think of their relative merits, SPIDEY, RALPH, and INCREDIBLES 2 are all sequels or franchise films (which have never taken this award outside of TOY STORY 3), while ISLE is unmistakably original. It is the legitimate threat.November 27, 2018 at 3:05 pm #1202683616
The way the film effortlessly deals with flashbacks and the way the action scenes are so tightly constructed and well-executed, I’d love to see it get an Editing nomination, which is really not outside the realm of possibility. But much as I thought the film was very good, I have a hard time seeing it score anything else with the Academy.November 27, 2018 at 3:02 pm #1202683614
Lupita Nyong’o won for just a single scene and there is not much complain about it, so i guess Elliot is safe and may contend for the win.
Nyong’o had more than “just a single scene”. I can think of plenty of recent winners in that category with less screen time (Cruz, Hathaway, Dench) not to mention performances going farther back (Bergman, Straight, Grahame).
Now if you mean she had one scene that really earned her the Oscar, that’s a different thing (and you can say the same about Hudson, Hathaway, Straight, etc.) but that’s a very different story.