Forum Replies Created
January 22, 2020 at 5:02 pm #1203299502
2. Little Women
3. Marriage Story
4. The Irishman
5. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
7. Jojo Rabbit
9. Ford v FerrariJanuary 22, 2020 at 10:18 am #1203298928
It’s not uncommon, I suppose, for a composing legend to win his only Oscar for a lesser work (Elmer Bernstein comes to mind) so I wouldn’t make a fuss if Newman won, though I found his score OK but nothing too special, and certainly nothing in the league of AMERICAN BEAUTY, ROAD TO PERDITION, and WALL-E (just to mention his notable previous noms alone).
But it’s hard for me to see JOKER not winning because the score–with all its atonalities, dirge-like percussive effects, and use in many of the wordless dramatic moments–really stands out and accentuates both Joker’s inner psychology as well as the tapestry of the Gotham wasteland, too (and this is from someone who didn’t care for the film much).
Plus, it’s incredibly rare that someone wins this category based on their name alone. In the last 25 years, I’d say it’s only happened once, for Ennio Morricone. And his competition only consisted of one Picture nominee (ironically, Newman) whereas 1917 is up against two others (including, ironically, LITTLE WOMEN, which Newman got his own nod for in 94). It’s possible, sure, and I certainly do hope he gets one one day, but I just don’t see it happening.
Then again, cousin Randy didn’t win his first Oscar until nomination #16 so his time may be close…January 21, 2020 at 5:14 pm #1203297684
This sounds like a fun idea – are we confined to just the Oscar nominees or can we pick any film from 2019?
Not really much of a challenge if you have every film from the year at your disposal.
So, restricted to this year’s nominees:
Actor: Antonio Banderas
Actress: Saoirse Ronan
Supp. Actor: Brad Pitt
Supp. Actress: Laura Dern
Director: Martin Scorsese
Orig. Screenplay: KNIVES OUT
Adap. Screenplay: THE TWO POPES
Cinematography: THE LIGHTHOUSE
Prod. Design: 1917
Editing: FORD V FERRARI
Costumes: JOJO RABBIT
Snd Mixing: AD ASTRA
Snd Editing: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER
Visual Effects: AVENGERS: ENDGAME
Makeup: MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL
Animated Feature: MISSING LINK
International Feature: LES MISERABLESJanuary 21, 2020 at 1:20 pm #1203297164
A poor analogy for a number of reasons, including the fact that Close was the sole nominee for her film while Dern’s film has incredibly strong support across the acting branch and the Academy overall. Could she still lose? Sure, but if she did, it would be for completely different reasons than why Close did.January 21, 2020 at 1:12 pm #1203297143
Soderbergh for TRAFFIC and ERIN BROCKOVICH.
I’m baffled Hitchcock didn’t win Best Director for Rebecca considering that film won Best Picture. I get they loved all things John Ford, but still.
This was Hitch’s first year in the US while Ford (who had yet to win) was a well-respected industry vet since the silent era.
Sadly, this was the closest Hitch would ever get to winning–3 of his remaining 4 nods had no corresponding Best Picture nod and SPELLBOUND really had no hope given its competition (this was the first of two times he lost to Billy Wilder).January 17, 2020 at 2:17 pm #1203289741
PGA has always been more commercially-minded than arthouse-minded and so I don’t think there’s any way on Earth PARASITE wins it.
But that’s a good thing, because I think the only way in the world that PARASITE has a hope of winning Best Picture is if its still seen as a scrappy underdog. The minute it wins PGA, it will have a target on its back. Sure, it will be a validation for its fans but for many who want to keep Oscar’s Picture contained to English-language films (since International titles have “their own” category), it will mobilize them more. If Bong’s film wins, it really does have to come in under the radar.
Which means there’s no way to know if PGA will be a soothsayer until after-the-fact. Regardless of how PGA turns out, I think there are three very strong titles all vying for the top spot with the Academy (QT, Mendes, Bong) and a guild win will be a helpful push but not a final answer.January 16, 2020 at 4:26 pm #1203288386
Shameless plug: Here’s the interview I did with QT as he was doing his Academy campaign tour for ONCE UPON A TIME… last month. Enjoy! (You can skip the intro; he and I start talking at 2:40)
His film is really up-in-the-air prediction wise. Pitt seems 100% secure but I can totally see his film winning
But I can easily see all those categories going elsewhere (with 1917 and/or PARASITE being its top competition in all those categories). Time may tell how things lean but I don’t think there will be any assurance about any until the final envelope is opened.January 16, 2020 at 2:46 pm #1203288232
It’s really hard to imagine Elton losing.
There was a time when the biggest radio hit had it in the bag but those days are mostly gone. Now, whichever was the film that was most seen has the upper hand. Which would ordinarily give the edge to FROZEN II.
But that song is such a pale comparison to its mega-hit predecessor and most of the competition is from films barely seen that the Elton/Bernie narrative (a perfect complement to the entire arc of the film itself) will be too irresistible to ignore.January 16, 2020 at 2:08 pm #1203288152
Well, time to add the following to the list:
Greta Gerwig – Saoirse Ronan, Florence Pugh
Marie Heller – Tom Hanks
Kasi Lemmons – Cynthia Erivo
This means that two records have been set:
(1) Greta Gerwig has now directed 4 Oscar-nominated performances, tying the record for a woman director held by Barbra Streisand. That fact that all 4 of these nominations are women sets the record for a woman director directing female performances to a nomination.
(2) Tom Hanks becomes the first male actor to ever earn two nominations from a female director, first for BIG and now for BEAUTIFUL.January 16, 2020 at 11:49 am #1203287946
Missing from last year:
Rami MalekJanuary 16, 2020 at 11:34 am #1203287920
As terrible as PHANTOM MENACE is, the primary culprit for its awfulness (JJB) is still a side character of no real importance other than a plot device.
But the characterization of Anakin in ATTACK OF THE CLONES is central to the story and its emotional arc and absolutely nothing about Christensen’s performance (his rage, his romance, his maturation, his internal conflict) is remotely convincing. It’s the single worst performance by anyone in the entire franchise, and the disconnect between what the film needed and what he was able to provide is simply massive.
That said, I think Eps 1-3 are the three worst installments across all 11 films so at least the film *is* consistent in that abysmal sense.January 15, 2020 at 11:04 am #1203286272
If it wins anything, I think it wins Costume Design. There’s no clear frontrunner in that category and the Oscars love Sandy Powell, so they’ll probably just give it to her.
The Oscars don’t “love” Powell because of her name. Her name doesn’t even appear on the ballot! Only the film title does.
Powell has had great success over the years with the Oscars because she’s been attached to films that allowed her to make a very distinctive mark on the story with a strong, heavily stylized, or iconic look.
Nothing like that happens in THE IRISHMAN. The costumes are period-faithful but there isn’t a single outfit, a single setpiece, a single memorable moment where the costumes really did pop in a way to fix in people’s memories. They did exactly what they needed to do, and given how many characters and scenes there are over the decades the film takes place, the sheer volume of her effort is enormous, but that doesn’t mean the specifics around the work stand out.
Plus, people usually remember a film’s outfits because of what the women characters wear (which generally allows for a lot more color and variety in design) and there are barely any women in the film! There’s a little formal wear but mostly just regular working class and business outfits from the 50s & 60s but not much else. That’s not to diminish her craftsmanship; but it is exactly the kind of costumes that never pick up an actual Oscar. The closest analogy is BUGSY, but that still has a lot of glamour because of its intersection with Hollywood, which Scorsese’s film doesn’t have.
I’d say the front-runner is LITTLE WOMEN because it has the most women characters in the central story which means that there are a lot more different types of dresses and outfits, especially relative to each of the March girls’ character, plus the heavy period trappings (its the only nominee that’s not set in the 20th century) which always goes over well.January 15, 2020 at 10:29 am #1203286204
I think the race is dull because 4 films have 10+ nominations each and four additional films have 6 nods each, which means that 8 films account for 65 of the total nominations out of roughly 93 slots for narrative fiction features (or over 2/3 total).
This means that many of the categories are just tedious variations of the same combinations. No matter how much I may like some of those films in contention, having such an appalling lack of variety when you examine each category means that you almost want to gravitate to the outliers just for a fresh perspective, because even if they’re not that great, at least they’re *different* (particularly since most of the 10+ films didn’t deserve nearly that many, imho).
So that means there is even less chance that there will be some fun left-field spoilers because most of the films in play are just echoes of each other from one slate to the next. So they may not all be predictable in the specific, the odds that the same familiar titles are in the final tally of winners are high. And that makes it boring.January 14, 2020 at 12:14 pm #1203284234
With the backlash to her Directing snub growing, Greta now has the narrative to win Adapted Screenplay.
Agreed. Plus with 6 nods including Pic, LW proved a much bigger force to contend with than previously thought. This will be the one chance the Academy has of rewarding a female director (among the feature films) and 4 of the last 8 winners in this category have been the film’s director.
I think Original is much harder to predict, because QT already has two writing Oscars (and sentiment may lean toward a Director win) and PARASITE really can’t be underestimated. It is a genuinely unknown quantity and one of the film’s great strengths is its ingenious labyrinth-like plot and larger message.
And MARRIAGE STORY is definitely a dark horse because its a situation (creatives in emotional turmoil, bi-coastal relationships, California divorce laws) that many of the members can identify with closely. And the prospect of a husband/wife winning pair may be too irresistible to some. That category really is a toss-up.