Forum Replies Created
February 19, 2019 at 12:35 pm #1202781716
what those two movies also have in common is that the teams behind them wasn’t Oscar-less.
Legato & Jones, responsible for Jungle Book, won 3 Oscars already before winning for JB.
Ralston, responsible for Death Becomes Her, won 3 Oscars before winning for DBH.
in doubt, always go with previous Oscar winner?
so looking at the 3 major contenders this year (& 2 which are BAFTA-less), this is how their teams fared with Oscars to date:
A:IW – 0 Oscars
RPO – 1 Oscar
FM – 2 Oscars
CR – 2 Oscars (actually, while the movie is pretty bland, visual effects are exceptional)
S:ASWS – 1 Oscar
what do you think?
Correlation is not causality. Remember that none of the ballots name the individual nominees, just the films (and even if they did, do you honestly think most people would know who was or wasn’t a previous winner?).
I think the only film you can dismiss this year is CHRISTOPHER ROBIN because not only is it so unlike any other winner and a film that didn’t perform particularly well at the b.o., but unlike EX MACHINA or BABE (which it most closely resembles in tone and style), it doesn’t have any other nominations anywhere else either.
Some of the other titles have a better chance than others, but I don’t see any reason to dismiss any of them as off-the-table. They’ve all got a shot.February 17, 2019 at 8:47 pm #1202779917
I remember a lot were predicting the Planet of the Apes franchise every time it got nominated and it lost. I predicted Blade Runner correctly over it (last year I believe). Not saying I will be right this time, but I think when you talk about First Man, people always say “Oh yes- that Moon Landing! That was sensational.” And it was.
Or they may look at it the way they looked at APOLLO 13 (which used no archival footage but was completely convincing as photo-realistic vfx) and go for something that has a supernatural element that makes the effects more obvious as well as impressive. And APOLLO was only competing against ONE other movie.February 17, 2019 at 8:43 pm #1202779903
Wasn’t the loss of Eddie Murphy due to the release of Norbit?
No one film can sink a nominee’s chances. But what NORBIT may have done was remind voters that Murphy had been making almost nothing but NORBITs for a decade or more. Sure, he was a Hollywood veteran, but one who largely peaked in the earliest part of his movie career (NUTTY and BOWFINGER notwithstanding). And unlike Arkin (even a more established veteran with other nods in his past), Murphy had a reputation for being a prima donna and a jerk, albeit a talented one if he brought his A game (which, again, people had largely not seen for a while).February 14, 2019 at 10:05 am #1202776038
It used to be a requirement that you attend specific screenings to be eligible to vote in the 3 short categories. Now, I believe all members have access to all the nominees online, but I’m not sure if there’s still a verification process to prove you’ve seen them that way before you can vote.
February 13, 2019 at 5:15 pm #1202775184
- This reply was modified 9 months ago by Riley Chow. Reason: Removed redundant block quote
I agree with your your critique on Pixar giving human attributes to everything. Good point!
Among their shorts: Lamps, umbrellas, unicycles, volcanos, Lost & Found items, religious icons, dumplings, even the day/night. Some are better than others but between those and the TOY STORY and CARS franchises, it’s incessant and (to these eyes) kinda lazy going back to that well over and over.February 13, 2019 at 10:35 am #1202774676
Just because a movie is consistently well liked across the board doesn”t mean it will triumph at the Oscars. I personally have always been skeptical of people constantly saying the preferential ballot is such a game changer when it comes to Best Picture: The Hurt Locker, The King”s Speech, The Artist, Argo, 12 Years A Slave, Birdman, Moonlight, and even The Shape Of Water would have won Best Picture in a winner take all system as there were strong narratives/passion behind all of those films that are the real reasons why they won Best Picture. Only Spotlight could have lost Best Picture under a winner take all system although even that is arguable.
As much as I love MOONLIGHT, I think it definitely could have lost to LA LA LAND in a winner-take-all contest depending on what the other 3 nominees would have been.February 12, 2019 at 11:39 am #1202773662
One can only hope this ridiculous Disney trend of remaking so many of their animated properties with “real live” (and largely inferior) versions comes to a screeching halt with this film–or at least if not a complete stop, a more judicious and less mercenary approach to green-lighting them in the future.
Rex Ingram, the great African-American actor, was a fantastic genie in THE THIEF OF BAGDAD so not sure why they couldn’t just let Will look like Will instead of bathing him in Smurf-face. Blech.February 12, 2019 at 11:35 am #1202773657
Hmmm, the one time I saw the Oscars abroad, they didn’t cut the feed to the awards site, they just had commentators filling in the gaps of what were commercial breaks for the US broadcast. So it actually wouldn’t surprise me if these slighted categories are seen by international audiences.February 12, 2019 at 11:30 am #1202773644
Ranking the animated shorts, I think WEEKEND is by far the best, because of all the parent/child narratives, it’s not only the most creative in its animated renderings, but it’s also the least sentimental. There’s no judgment about good/bad/happy/sad, just capturing the sensations of an expansive pair of worlds and all the strange and scary associations they evoke.
LATE AFTERNOON is next because the animation style is simpler, but the way it fluidly moves through the old lady’s memory does showcase how immersive and elusive memory itself can be.
I still dislike the impulse for Pixar to anthropomorphize *everything* in its various shorts, but comparing the two Asian-based parent/child shorts, this one has far better characterizations and superior emotions. My one complaint is that keeping the bao a bao worked just fine as metaphor so spelling it out with the appearance of the real son is obvious, unnecessary, and a little cheap.
I like the other Snowden/Fine shorts I’ve seen so while this has some funny jokes, it doesn’t have the insight of, say, Nick Park’s CREATURE COMFORTS, which does a better job of drawing connections between the Animal Behaviors and more universal ones.
So ONE SMALL STEP is last. The emotions are obvious, the trajectory is familiar, and the character design falls into the classic moon-eyed princess template. I dig the empowerment message just fine, but there’s nothing special about this short (and certainly TWEET TWEET, which is part of the Oscar collection roadshow circulating in theaters, is far better than at least these bottom two, and maybe even the Pixar).
Because the best film almost never wins in this category, but the cutest/sappiest often does, LATE or BAO are the best bets to win.February 12, 2019 at 11:20 am #1202773620
And I agree with what you said about someone’s vote being wasted if that person’s top 5 are all eliminated. That’s the problem with the preferential ballot. The vote should go back to being just a majority vote.
You mean a plurality vote. The only time it’s been a majority vote is *with* the preferential ballot–though I agree that the ranking should be for all nominated slots, so every ballot counts down to if the final three contenders are someone’s #6, 7 & 8.February 8, 2019 at 10:48 am #1202765307
Heck, might as well add BLADE (Kris Kristofferson), HOWARD THE DUCK (Tim Robbins, David Paymer), DAREDEVIL (Ben Affleck, Michael Clark Duncan), and ELEKTRA (Terence Stamp)
There were two versions of THE PUNISHER, one with Lou Gossett Jr. and one with John Travolta & Roy Scheider.
CAPTAIN AMERICA (1990) had Melinda Dillon & Ned Beatty. Oh, and the OP is missing Gary Sinise for CA: WINTER SOLDIER.
Plus Brad Pitt makes a cameo in DEADPOOL 2 and the name of the actor in X-MEN is Bruce Davison
And there’s the debate on whether The Kingsman, Kick-Ass, and Men In Black franchise count as Marvel properties.February 8, 2019 at 10:22 am #1202765275
You got a link? Because here’s Natalie Wood (from INSIDE DAISY CLOVER) announcing the nominees and winner for Best Song that year and “The Sweetheart Tree” is one of them (though strangely, she lists the names of the songs but not what movie they’re from)February 8, 2019 at 10:12 am #1202765262
So… can Roma split between Best Picture and Best Foreign Film?
I think the logic says if Roma is winning BP then should take FLF too.
But… I was thinking: the criteria for both categories is really the same. Could this make some voters pick Roma on the main race but then get to FLF category on their ballots and say “ok, so I have Roma for Picture, I’m gonna pick (…) cause I loved that film too and want to reward it” or something?
There’s clearly a lot of love for Cold War, which made it into BD and Cinematography, Never Look Away got Cinematography and Shoplifters won at Cannes with a predominantly Hollywood-esque jury.
Many who liked but not loved Roma could vote for it only on FLF. So maybe we are before a different kind of vote splitting. There are a lot of questions I have about this ‘cause I guess is the first time a FLF nominee really, really has a chance at BP too.
There are three types of voter for FLF:
(1) Those who will vote for ROMA
(2) Those who will vote for something else
(3) Those who would vote for ROMA but will vote for something else instead because they think ROMA will win Best Picture.
Of the last (and I’m guessing, smallest) subset of voters, the only people I can see doing this are ones who put ROMA as #1 on the Picture preferential ballot. And that will be, if it’s lucky, say, 15% of the votes–possibly a plurality but definitely not a majority.
I highly doubt that even if someone puts ROMA as #2 or 3, they will risk voting for a FLF “alternate” because they themselves are still rooting for a different movie to win over ROMA in Best Picture. So if their vote was going to ROMA for FLF, that likely won’t change just because they rank it high but not the highest.
So I think ROMA is most likely to win FLF regardless of whether it wins Picture too or not.