Updated with The Life Ahead and Tove. Everything is listed in order of preference.

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The 40-Year-Old Version
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Shirley
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Palm Springs
Tove
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
The Personal History of David Copperfield

(Also seen, from best to worst:

The Invisible M…[Read more]

Updated with Hillbilly Elegy. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

The Forty-Year-Old Version
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Shirley
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Palm Springs
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
On the Rocks
The Personal History of David Copperfield

(Also seen, from best to worst:

The Invisible M…[Read more]

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Nightmare Alley
Soggy Bottom
Killers of the Flower Moon
Don’t Look Up
The Good Nurse
Porgy and Bess
Amsterdam
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Elvis

(West Side Story
King Richard
In the Heights
Annette
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Armageddon Time
Dune
Bruised
The Banshees of Inisheer
Red, White and Water)

Director

Paul Thomas A…[Read more]

Oh yes, and my picks for 2020:

Actress

Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Constance Wu, Hustlers

Actor

Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Luce
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Jimmie Fails, The Last Black Man in San F…[Read more]

Why are we going down the ridiculously absurd “J-Lo is white” rabbit hole every time her name is mentioned?

Leo was fucking dynamite.

Updated with The Forty-Year-Old Version. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

The Forty-Year-Old Version
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Shirley
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Palm Springs
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
On the Rocks
The Personal History of David Copperfield

(Also seen, from best to worst:

The I…[Read more]

Jim Parsons is outstanding in TBITB and in my world he would be nominated, but I’m afraid the reality is you’re overestimating his standing in this race.

I know that’s what you meant lol, and I saw it ages ago. I agree, she is a hoot in that movie; I have her in my personal top five as well in case you missed it.

Miranda the Movie? I need to see this pronto.

PICTURE

Frontrunners

Nomadland
Mank

Next in line

Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father

On the brink

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Hillbilly Elegy

Strong possibilities

Stillwater
Da 5 Bloods
Soul
The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Possibilities

Tenet
Never, Rarely, S…[Read more]

DIRECTING

Frontrunners

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank

Next in line

Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Florian Zeller, The Father
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

On the brink

Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Spike Lee, Da 5…[Read more]

Langeller, SBC, Redmayne, YAM, Rylance, in this order.

Btw no-one ever mentions poor JGL because his role isn’t as showy as the others. He’s a brilliant actor who deserves a part that will finally bring him awards recognition.

Yeah, everyone loves a well-acted villain.

This is true, but doesn’t at all dispute the fact that vile characters often do fantastically well in the supporting categories, especially the supporting actor category.

Vile characters are red hot currency in the Supporting Actor category. Rockwell, Simmons, Waltz and Ledger are recent examples but the list goes on for miles. Langeller is coming, sit back and watch.

I will happily risk looking dumb baby, I’m not that vain lol.

Yes, Oldman *could* win, but I don’t think it’s terribly likely that the Academy would feel an irresistible urge to hand him a second Oscar right now when he just won yesterday, for a very similar performance in the sense that he plays a real-life icon in a historic biopic.

If…[Read more]

Frontrunners

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Charles Dance, Mank
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Next in line

Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Tom Burke, Mank
Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

On the brink

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Aldis Hodge, One Night in M…[Read more]

If there is a lead in the movie it’s Redmayne, but even his role and character arc aren’t substantial enough to carry him to a nomination.

I predict the movie’s awards ticket is Langeller. He has a narrative and he acts the living juice out of his character.

Oldman is not getting another Oscar this soon.