I would fucking hate do be the presumed Documentary Feature Oscar frontrunner. It’s basically a rule that I wouldn’t even be nominated.

Updated with The Edge of Democracy. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Hustlers
Dolor y gloria
Atlantics
The Irishman

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage…[Read more]

Updated with The Edge of Democracy (A).

Updated with Honeyland (A-).

Updated with Honeyland. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Hustlers
Dolor y gloria
Atlantics
The Irishman

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Céline Sciamma,…[Read more]

Jennifer Lopez, Eddie Murphy, Awkwafina, Lupita Nyong’o, Jamie Foxx, Shuzhen Zhao and Kang-Ho Song.

Alt: Greta Gerwig, Lulu Wang, Marielle Heller, and Celine Sciamma.

Updated with I Lost My Body. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Hustlers
Dolor y gloria
Atlantics
The Irishman

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Céline…[Read more]

Updated with American Factory (A-), Harriet (C+) and I Lost My Body (A-).

To be fair, these are her first nominations even though she’s been one of the most prominent movie actors in the world for two decades, so I wouldn’t say she’s exactly had an easy ride with the Academy and gets nods just like that for playing a tree. One could even say she’s been systematically snubbed until now.

That said, I fully agree that…[Read more]

I’ve yet to see 1917, Little Women, and Parasite.

1 Marriage Story
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3 The Irishman
4 Joker
5 Jojo Rabbit
6 Ford v. Ferrari

Updated with Harriet. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Hustlers
Dolor y gloria
Atlantics
The Irishman

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Céline Sciamma,…[Read more]

#Oscarssowhite

Updated with American Factory. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Hustlers
Dolor y gloria
Atlantics
The Irishman

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Céline…[Read more]

I’ll see it in two weeks. Can’t wait!

Interesting. We shall see!

Picture

Killers of the Flower Moon
Nightmare Alley
Next Goal Wins
Barbie
Babylon
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson film
Going Electric
Elvis
Tick, Tick… Boom!
Lucy and Desi

(Girl Named Sue
Newsflash
Avatar 2
Wicked
Fun Home
The House of Gucci
Fool’s Day
Twist
A Special Relationship
Unforgiven)

Director

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Paul Thomas Anderson, Unt…[Read more]

Any statistical calculation worth its salt will take into account that certain awards carry more weight than others. As per Hollywood Reporter: “My method weights data from other awards shows based on how predictive that data has been in the past.”