[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203808914

Picture

Nightmare Alley
Soggy Bottom
Killers of the Flower Moon
Don’t Look Up
The Good Nurse
Porgy and Bess
Amsterdam
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog
Elvis

(West Side Story
King Richard
In the Heights
Annette
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Armageddon Time
Dune
Bruised
The Banshees of Inisheer
Red, White and Water)

Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley

(Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Tobias Lindholm, The Good Nurse)

Actress

Ana de Armas, Blonde
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Viola Davis, The Fighting Shirley Chisholm
Margot Robbie, Amsterdam

(Halle Berry, Bruised
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Cate Blanchett, Armageddon Time)

Actor

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Will Smith, King Richard
Adam Driver, Annette
Christian Bale, Amsterdam

(Andrew Garfield, Instrumental
Austin Butler, Elvis
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Mark Ruffalo, The True American
Timothee Chalamet, Dune)

Supporting Actress

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Elvis
Margot Robbie, Fool’s Day
Elisabeth Moss, Next Goal Wins
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Matilda

(Tiffany Haddish, The Card Counter
Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Cate Blanchett, Don’t Look Up
Rebecca Ferguson, Dune)

Supporting Actor

Jake Gyllenhaal, Fun Home
Mark Ruffalo, Newsflash
Tom Hanks, Elvis
John David Washington, Amsterdam
Oscar Isaac, Armageddon Time

(Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
Timothee Chalamet, Don’t Look Up
Brian Tyree Henry, Red, White and Water
Rami Malek, No Time to Die)

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203804982

Oh yes, and my picks for 2020:

Actress

Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Constance Wu, Hustlers

Actor

Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Luce
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Daniel Kaluuya, Queen & Slim
Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
Jimmie Fails, The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Octavia Spencer, Luce
Cho Yeo-jeong, Parasite
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name

Supporting Actor

Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Song Kang-ho, Parasite
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203804971

Why are we going down the ridiculously absurd “J-Lo is white” rabbit hole every time her name is mentioned?

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203803210

Leo was fucking dynamite.

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203800336

Updated with The Forty-Year-Old Version. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

The Forty-Year-Old Version
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Shirley
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Palm Springs
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
On the Rocks
The Personal History of David Copperfield

(Also seen, from best to worst:

The Invisible Man
The Assistant
Tenet
The Boys in the Band
The King of Staten Island
Miss Juneteenth
Games People Play
The Half of It
Misbehaviour
Summer of 85
The Lovebirds
Emma
All the Bright Places
Birds of Prey
To All the Boys: P.S. I Still Love You
Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Wendy)

Director

Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Josephine Decker, Shirley
Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Actress

Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Radha Blank, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

Actor

Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Jim Parsons, The Boys in the Band
Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of Chicago 7

Supporting Actress

Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Odessa Young, Shirley
Marisa Tomei, The King of Staten Island
Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Miranda Hart, Emma

Supporting Actor

Jonathan Majors, Da 5 Bloods
Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Bill Murray, On the Rocks
Robin de Jesus, The Boys in the Band
Orion Lee, First Cow

Adapted Screenplay

I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The Invisible Man
Shirley
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Summer of 85

Original Screenplay

Palm Springs
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
The Forty-Year-Old Version
First Cow

Editing

The Trial of the Chicago 7
Tenet
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Palm Springs
Shirley

Cinematography

Tenet
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
The Forty-Year-Old Version
Shirley
First Cow

Production design

I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Birds of Prey
Tenet
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Da 5 Bloods

Score

Shirley
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Games People Play
Tenet
All the Bright Places

Song

Staring at a Mountain, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Poverty Porn, The Forty-Year-Old Version
Turn Tables, All In: the Fight for Democracy
The Plan, Tenet
Husavik, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Sound

Tenet
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Da 5 Bloods
The Invisible Man
Birds of Prey

Costumes

The Personal History of David Copperfield
Misbehaviour
Da 5 Bloods
First Cow
I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Hair and makeup

Birds of Prey
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Misbehaviour
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Visual effects

Tenet
The Invisible Man
Da 5 Bloods
Birds of Prey
I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Documentary feature

Circus of Books
The Lost Boys
The Social Dilemma
Hillary
Miss Americana

(Also seen, from best to worst:

All In: the Fight for Democracy
The Go-Go’s
Athlete A
Disclosure: Trans Lives on Screen
Becoming
Mucho Mucho Amor: The Legend of Walter Mercado)

International feature film

Games People Play (Finland)
Summer of 85 (France)

Documentary short

New York, New York

Live action short

The Stunt Double

Reply

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203800161

Gabarnes43 wrote:

Updated Predictions

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
3. Gary Oldman, Mank
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Tom Hanks, News of the World

6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
7. Sacha Barón Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
8. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7
10. Jim Parsons, The Boys in the Band

Jim Parsons is outstanding in TBITB and in my world he would be nominated, but I’m afraid the reality is you’re overestimating his standing in this race.

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203785693

wolfali wrote:

Oops. I meant Emma lol (which she’s very funny in and you should see pronto too).

I know that’s what you meant lol, and I saw it ages ago. I agree, she is a hoot in that movie; I have her in my personal top five as well in case you missed it.

Reply

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203785517

wolfali wrote:

2. Miranda Hart, Miranda

Miranda the Movie? I need to see this pronto.

Reply

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203783632

PICTURE

Frontrunners

Nomadland
Mank

Next in line

Judas and the Black Messiah
News of the World
One Night in Miami
The Trial of the Chicago 7
The Father

On the brink

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Minari
Hillbilly Elegy

Strong possibilities

Stillwater
Da 5 Bloods
Soul
The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Possibilities

Tenet
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always

Longer shots

Ammonite
On the Rocks
Cherry
Pieces of a Woman
I’m Thinking of Ending Things
French Exit
Kajillionaire
Respect
Promising Young Woman
The World to Come
Those Who Wish Me Dead
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Let Them All Talk
The Midnight Sky
Shirley
The Courier
The 40-Year-Old Version

Theoretical possibilities

Fever Dream
The Boys in the Band
C’mon C’mon
Harry Haft
Eternal Beauty
Good Joe Bell
The White Tiger
There Is No Evil
Without Remorse
Sylvie’s Love
Herself
All Day and a Night
Louis Wain
Worth
The Prom
The Good House
Falling
Land

Reply

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203783630

DIRECTING

Frontrunners

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
David Fincher, Mank

Next in line

Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Florian Zeller, The Father
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

On the brink

Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy
Regina King, One Night in Miami
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

Strong possibilities

George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Christopher Nolan, Tenet
Tom McCarthy, Stillwater

Possibilities

Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Eliza Hittman, Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always

Longer shots

Anthony & Joe Russo, Cherry
Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks
Miranda July, Kajillionaire
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Taylor Sheridan, Those Who Wish Me Dead
Lee Daniels, The United States vs Billie Holiday
Josephine Decker, Shirley
Azazel Jacobs, French Exit
Steven Soderbergh, Let Them All Talk
Armano Ianucci, The Personal History of David Copperfield
Francis Lee, Ammonite
Dominic Cooke, The Courier
Liesl Tommy, Respect

Theoretical possibilities

Kornel Mundruczo, Pieces of a Woman
Mona Fastvold, The World to Come
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Radha Blank, The 40-Year-Old Version
Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger
Barry Levinson, Harry Haft
Robin Wright, Land

Reply

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203783532

Langeller, SBC, Redmayne, YAM, Rylance, in this order.

Btw no-one ever mentions poor JGL because his role isn’t as showy as the others. He’s a brilliant actor who deserves a part that will finally bring him awards recognition.

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203782758

David wrote:

Still it’s kinda stupid of the thought of a voter not voting for an actor just based off how evil and vile he was in the film. That should make a voter want to vote for them even more if they hated them that much. Voters vote on the portrayal, not the character’s actions.

Yeah, everyone loves a well-acted villain.

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203782749

Human Bartender wrote:

Rockwell’s Oscar winning role isn’t anywhere near as despicable as Ledger, Waltz, Simmons or Janney’s, who are all completely irredeemable and never treated sympathetically at all by their respective films.

This is true, but doesn’t at all dispute the fact that vile characters often do fantastically well in the supporting categories, especially the supporting actor category.

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203782645

Zooey the Dreamer wrote:

I don’t think Langella has a shot. The character is so vile. I love Langella, yet I would not vote for him. I just don’t like the thought of voting for that character.

Actually, I think Sasha Baron Cohen is the MVP. I loved that performance. He truly surprised me. Yahya has so little screen time and even his monologue is very brief.

Vile characters are red hot currency in the Supporting Actor category. Rockwell, Simmons, Waltz and Ledger are recent examples but the list goes on for miles. Langeller is coming, sit back and watch.

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 4 Posts: 6639 View Predictions]

#1203782572

Mickmack wrote:

Kaluuya being predicted this high is going to look dumb is my prediction. Oldman could definitely win number 2. He’s the lead in the clear frontrunner.

I will happily risk looking dumb baby, I’m not that vain lol.

Yes, Oldman *could* win, but I don’t think it’s terribly likely that the Academy would feel an irresistible urge to hand him a second Oscar right now when he just won yesterday, for a very similar performance in the sense that he plays a real-life icon in a historic biopic.

If they’re hell-bent on rewarding yet another old white man they’ve got Hopkins who has looked like the one to beat for eons now. Kaluuyer has a much more urgent narrative than Oldman as well, and could pick up major steam if his performance is as feisty as it seems.

Mank looks like Oscar gold on the surface but it’s also a textbook example of a movie everyone presumes to be a frontrunner but in the end is outshined by something more timely. Proclaiming a film nobody’s seen “the clear frontrunner” is a bit absurd and may just end up looking dumb :p Not that there’s anything wrong with looking dumb.