[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203216887

Updated with Jojo Rabbit. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
The Lighthouse
Dolemite Is My Name
Dolor y gloria

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Pedro Almodovar, Dolor y gloria
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers

Actress

Renee Zellweger, Judy
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Awkwafina, The Farewell

Actor

Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Dolor y gloria
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Supporting actress

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Octavia Spencer, Luce
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell

Supporting actor

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Adapted screenplay

Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
Joker
Jojo Rabbit

Original screenplay

Marriage Story
Us
The Farewell
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Editing

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Hustlers
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out

Cinematography

The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Marriage Story
Midsommar

Production design

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Midsommar
Jojo Rabbit

Score

Joker
Marriage Story
The Farewell
Luce
Ad Astra

Sound

Joker
Rocketman
Hustlers
Her Smell
Ad Astra

Costumes

Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
Midsommar

Hair and makeup

Captain Marvel
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Us
Dolemite Is My Name

Visual effects

Spider-Man: Far from Home
Ad Astra
Captain Marvel
Midsommar
The Irishman

Documentary feature

Knock Down the House
Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love
Amazing Grace
Apollo 11
Ella Fitzgerald: Just One of Those Things

Animated feature

Toy Story 4

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203215049

Picture (comedy/musical)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Jojo Rabbit
The Farewell
Dolemite Is My Name
Knives Out

Picture (drama)

Marriage Story
The Irishman
Parasite
1917
Little Women

Director

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Sam Mendes, 1917
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Actress (comedy/musical)

Awkwafina, The Farewell
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell
Constance Wu, Hustlers

Actress (drama)

Renee Zellweger, Judy
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Alfre Woodard, Clemency

Actor (comedy/musical)

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit

Actor (drama)

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
Antonio Banderas, Dolor y gloria
Robert De Niro, The Irishman

Supporting Actress

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Supporting Actor

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203213944

Updated with Knives Out. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
The Lighthouse
Dolemite Is My Name
Dolor y gloria

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Pedro Almodovar, Dolor y gloria
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers

Actress

Renee Zellweger, Judy
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Awkwafina, The Farewell

Actor

Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Dolor y gloria
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Supporting actress

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Octavia Spencer, Luce
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell

Supporting actor

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Adapted screenplay

Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
Joker
Gloria Bell

Original screenplay

Marriage Story
Us
The Farewell
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Editing

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Hustlers
Marriage Story
Knives Out
Dolemite Is My Name

Cinematography

The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Marriage Story
Midsommar

Production design

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Dolemite Is My Name
Midsommar

Score

Joker
Marriage Story
The Farewell
Luce
Ad Astra

Sound

Joker
Rocketman
Hustlers
Her Smell
Ad Astra

Costumes

Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Captain Marvel
Midsommar

Hair and makeup

Captain Marvel
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Us
Dolemite Is My Name

Visual effects

Spider-Man: Far from Home
Ad Astra
Captain Marvel
Midsommar
The Irishman

Documentary feature

Knock Down the House
Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love
Amazing Grace
Apollo 11
Ella Fitzgerald: Just One of Those Things

Animated feature

Toy Story 4

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203213261

Victor Cruz wrote:

I’m just saying because I see many pundits putting her at number 2 and I’m like are these people doing their homework. It’s always been clear that if she gets nominated she’s just another filler. She’s not going to win for a 4th remake of a film.

I agree, I’m just saying that the Satellites are not the correct receipt for this.

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203213248

Victor Cruz wrote:

Lol. Didn’t I say Saoirse Ronan is being overestimated? There you go! Also the pundits thinking she’ll win. The winner has never missed the Satellite nominations.

Very clear that the top 3 are: Theron, Zellweger, Johansson.

Ronan is obviously not winning the Oscar and I agree with your estimation of the top 3, but I think Ronan isn’t included simply because Satellites didn’t see Little Women in time. Hard to imagine them deliberately snubbing the movie in every single category; had they seen it but disliked it, it would still have popped up somewhere.

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203213014

Elazul wrote:

Little Women is not represented at all!

They clearly didn’t see it in time.

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203211840

Award nominee Guava Island!

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203210704

Updated with Marriage Story. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
The Lighthouse
Dolemite Is My Name
Dolor y gloria

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Noah Baumach, Marriage Story
Pedro Almodovar, Dolor y gloria
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers

Actress

Renee Zellweger, Judy
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Awkwafina, The Farewell

Actor

Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Dolor y gloria
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Supporting actress

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Octavia Spencer, Luce
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell

Supporting actor

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Adapted screenplay

Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
Joker
Gloria Bell

Original screenplay

Marriage Story
Us
The Farewell
Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Editing

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Hustlers
Marriage Story
Dolemite Is My Name
The Lighthouse

Cinematography

The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Marriage Story
Midsommar

Production design

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Dolemite Is My Name
Midsommar

Score

Joker
Marriage Story
The Farewell
Luce
Ad Astra

Sound

Joker
Rocketman
Hustlers
Her Smell
Ad Astra

Costumes

Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Captain Marvel
Midsommar

Hair and makeup

Captain Marvel
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Us
Dolemite Is My Name

Visual effects

Spider-Man: Far from Home
Ad Astra
Captain Marvel
Midsommar
The Irishman

Documentary feature

Knock Down the House
Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love
Amazing Grace
Apollo 11
Ella Fitzgerald: Just One of Those Things

Animated feature

Toy Story 4

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203209524

Dennis El Mar wrote:

Currently I think Gerwig has a great shot at a Director nomination but I’d like to make something clear, I don’t think they’ll operate on the notion that they need to make space for a woman to get in. There was incredible passion for Lady Bird in 2017 and she did not get in because she was a woman, she got in because it was an incredibly popular film and they appreciated her directorial vision regardless of what you or I think of it. The same rules still apply for her, this movie must have a sizable contingent who are passionate about it rather than being a filler/namecheck BP nominee and given how competitive it is this year it’s slightly condescending towards her to assume they’ll make space for her just because she’s a woman.

Are you sure? The Academy has only been around for 92 years and they’ve already given a nomination to five women so I think it’s pretty obvious that they’re favoring female directors over men just because they’re female. I wonder if this discrimination against men will ever stop – we might need to launch an #Oscarssofemale hashtag campaign to try to change this; who’s with me?

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203209443

^ Not sure who has claimed a showy performance automatically means no nuance. I for one haven’t said so. The history of cinema is littered with showy performances that are nuanced to the max.

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203209257

Pacino is fiercely energetic, scenery-chewing and funny. The one problem with his performance is a certain lack of depth. He walks away with his scenes but doesn’t leave the audience – me anyway – with a deeper sensation of what kind of a human being Hoffa was underneath his showy facade.

Pacino is Pacino to the max here, in many ways a less unbearable version of himself in The Devil’s Advocate. His Jimmy Hoffa has the mannerisms of Al Pacino, not the mannerisms of Jimmy Hoffa.

Pesci is less showy and more subdued – but he projects a profound sense of a human being made of flesh and blood, and while Pacino impressed me more while I was watching the film, it’s Pesci’s work than crawled under my skin and left a more lasting mark.

As far as Oscars go, while both have a shot at a nomination, I believe Pacino is the shoo-in as he acts in spades. Can’t see either of them threatening Pitt though.

In the end this is a case of apples and oranges, so I suppose it’s just as well that I’m for some reason not able to cast a vote in the poll.

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203207079

Updated with The Irishman. Everything is listed in order of preference.

Picture

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Farewell
Us
Luce
Hustlers
The Irishman
The Lighthouse
Dolemite Is My Name
Dolor y gloria
Joker

Director

Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Pedro Almodovar, Dolor y gloria
Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers
Jordan Peele, Us

Actress

Renee Zellweger, Judy
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Florence Pugh, Midsommar

Actor

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Antonio Banderas, Dolor y gloria
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
Robert Pattinson, The Lighthouse

Supporting actress

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Octavia Spencer, Luce
Emma Thompson, Late Night
Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite Is My Name

Supporting actor

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse
Jonathan Majors, The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Adapted screenplay

Luce
The Irishman
Hustlers
Joker
Gloria Bell

Original screenplay

Us
The Farewell
Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Booksmart

Editing

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Hustlers
Dolemite Is My Name
The Irishman
The Lighthouse

Cinematography

The Lighthouse
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Midsommar
Joker
The Irishman

Production design

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
The Irishman
Dolemite Is My Name
Midsommar

Score

Joker
The Farewell
Luce
The Irishman
Ad Astra

Sound

Joker
Rocketman
Hustlers
Her Smell
Ad Astra

Costumes

Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Captain Marvel
Midsommar

Hair and makeup

Captain Marvel
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Joker
Us
Dolemite Is My Name

Visual effects

Spider-Man: Far from Home
Ad Astra
Captain Marvel
Midsommar
The Irishman

Documentary feature

Knock Down the House
Marianne & Leonard: Words of Love
Amazing Grace
Apollo 11
Ella Fitzgerald: Just One of Those Things

Animated feature

Toy Story 4

Reply

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203202501

Don’t we already have this thread?

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203199773

1917 has a long way to go if it wants to beat OUATIH, The Irishman, Parasite and such. Almost every decent high profile movie is showered in hyperbole after early screenings, and it’s pretty common for a movie to look like a front runner until it doesn’t. It’s way too early to tell.

[FoolioParticipant Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 6422 View Predictions]

#1203199769

TheDreamingHead wrote:

Sorry Scarlett Johansson isn’t as legendary in Marriage Story as Jessica Lange was in Frances. She can’t use this method!

Aren’t we talking about Johansson in Jojo Rabbit here? Not that I think she will win or even be nominated for it, but just to be clear: unless I’m mistaken, Jojo Rabbit is her horse in the Supporting Actress race and Marriage Story in Lead Actress.