[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202783676

linecelts wrote:

I have a feeling we’re going to see an upset in Best Picture and Original Screenplay. I have a feeling Roma might not take Best Picture and I’m getting a feeling that we might see a very surprised winner for Original Screenplay.

If Green Book wins original screenplay, it is going to win best picture as well.

Picture: Roma (spoiler: Green Book)
Director: Alfonso Cuaron (lock of the night)
Actor: Rami Malek (locked)
Actress: Glenn Close (spoiler: Olivia Colman)
S. Actor: Mahershali Ali (locked)
S. Actress: Regina King (spoiler: Rachel Weisz)
O. Screenplay: The Favoutite (spoiler: Green Book)
A. Screenplay: Blackkklansman

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202783451

MarinaBelo2 wrote:

It doesn’t make sense, in theory. But when you see how the voters think, with those anonymous ballots, you notice that they really want to vote for the winners, more than they want their favorites winning. The sheep mentality is real!

Also, I think I’ve read somewhere that the SAG nominees are decided by a small group of members. So a lot of voters were probably looking for Regina to vote for after she won the Globes, and with her absence, decided to vote for Blunt because she wasn’t a threat to Regina without an Oscar nom. Obviously, I’m not saying everyone that voted for Blunt took that into account, but believe me: many did.

So, you also think people voted for Idris Elba in SAG because he is the least threatening to Stallone?

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202782028

Lagg wrote:

Those anonymous Oscars ballots is really confusing people’s minds.

Don’t take them too seriously. They can choose whatever ballot they want to show to make the race more exciting than it actually was or cover the real situation.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202782012

DrewN92 wrote:

Does anyone know if anyone in this category has ever swept all of the precursors (GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA) and then lost the Oscar? I truly don’t expect Ali to lose, but given his recent win for Moonlight and the alleged passion behind Grant, I was wondering if historically that has ever happened in this category?

The only person who has won all the precursors and lost was Russell Crowe for A Beautiful Mind. Eddie Murphy, Julie Christie and Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York) won three and then lost the Oscar. Annette Bening won SAG and BAFTA for American Beauty but still lost Oscar.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202781451

There is a lot of excitement and anticipation going into this year’s ceremony. I didn’t feel like that at all last year.
Picture: Roma vs Green Book
Actress: Close vs Colman
S. Actress: King vs Weisz
O. Screenplay: The Favorite vs Green Book (?)
Production design, costume design, editing, both sound categories are hard to predict too. I could even see an possible upset snubbing “Shallow” too.
As for this race, I thought it would be 35% Weisz, 30% King, 15% de Tavira, 15% Adams, 5% Stone.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202781303

Babygirl wrote:

Amy above Regina? C’mon now LMAO.

The only thing predictable about this category is unpredictability. We are not the voters. What we think won’t swing a single vote.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202781301

gabarnes43 wrote:

I think the reason why the producers of the Favourite put the ladies in these categories is because, having all 3 in Supporting would mean at least one would miss a nomination, Emma and Rachel are the same so they would either both go in lead or both in supporting, if they both went in lead then one of them would probably miss a nomination.

Both Emma and Rachel would have missed if they were put in lead.
Actually, the category placement of the Favourite is the reason why the two actress categories are so unpredictable this year. If Colman was campaigned in supporting, she and Glenn would have won in their respective categories easily.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202780896

At this point, Roma is pretty similar to The Revenant in term of award run. Directed by a Mexican director on his second run for Best Director. The highest number of nominations. Surprising acting nomination along the ride (Hardy, Aparicio, de Tavira). Won DGA. Won BAFTA picture and director. No SAG ensemble nomination. SAG/DGA/PGA split.

Of course, you can still point out many differences.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202779009

Close 50%
Colman 40%
Gaga 4%
Aparicio 4%
McCarthy 2%

We should do one for supporting actress.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202778564

Kord Dkt wrote:

can’t believe this Jan said that lol. Gaga campaigned harder than any other actress this year. She was the one who wanted to be a part of the circle so much. Her campaign did not just paid off… don’t be bitter Jan.

And I’m tired of talking about Lady Gaga, i really don’t hate her, just her stans that were unbearable. Now that they have accepted her fate, it’s cooler and i don’t want to say bad things about her anymore.

I am a Gaga fan and I would be very happy if she took the Best Original Song Oscar. She is new to the industry and would not deserve to win acting Oscar over veteran actresses.

But at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if she lost the Original Song Oscar too. She didn’t really win big even when she is the frontrunner to win. The Grammys, the Hunting Ground Oscar, etc.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202777927

Kord Dkt wrote:

Btw how this happened ? I mean are strong enough to trash The Academy for reward Best Cinematography, Costume and that during the break, but no one was able to call them out for what is a clear case of category fraud ? I mean who remembers what really happened ?

Please tell me.

The category that year is the pinnacle of category fraud. The ones who are voting for the nominations are fellow actors. Perhaps the actors had the fantasy of ‘category-frauding’ their way into Oscar glory one day for themselves, so they allow it to happen.

I remembered Diane Ladd did call them out and famously said Rooney ‘Moore’.

• This reply was modified 5 days, 20 hours ago by  Monty.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202777920

Filmatelist wrote:

Cite?

After she lost the Oscar to Alicia Vikander, she came out to present an award with Reese Whiterspoon. She appeared to be obviously emotional and angry. I originally thought those who won in lead actress won’t care about supporting wins.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202777889

Jazzy wrote:

I keep telling y’all, she’s gonna get the second highest number of votes. She and Marina have been everywhere this awards season! They’ve been doing the rounds on tv shows and have attended many industry functions. She’s also been on magazine covers and in various articles. Passion votes for Roma will cause Yalitza to wind up in 2nd place behind Glenn.

I think she did nothing in the film. Even Marina de Tavira overshadowed her in that film.

[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202777870

Miles wrote:

If Kate Winslet had ended up playing Sarah Churchill like originally planned this whole thing would go completely differently. Winslet would be nominated in lead and Colman would be winning in supporting

I guess Winslet is punching herself left and right for turning down this potentially oscar-winning role. She wants a second Oscar pretty bad.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 287 View Predictions]

#1202777868

M: The Original wrote:

Stone is a non-factor. Any Academy voter with the least bit of sense knows a vote for her is an immediate halt to a starlet establishing her legacy with them. They had an opportunity to ruin Jennifer Lawrence with American Hustle because precursors like the Globes and BAFTA chose her over Lupita which was maddening.

This brings us to Hilary Swank. Sometimes winning two Oscar so young is not a blessing.

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