[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 299 View Predictions]

#1202803276

Gabriel Guarin wrote:

Who do you think is winning Supporting Actress next year? I think so far it’s between The Report’s Annette Bening and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’s Margot Robbie.

Hilary Swank for whatever film.

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#1202789552

Let’s hope for a Colman upset.

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#1202788874

Chris always have strong reaction when somebody said Regina King is not winning.

[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 299 View Predictions]

#1202788857

I guess Bale is hoping for Amy to win, did he? He is also the the first one to sit down when Dicaprio won. He is certainly not the most diplomatic person.

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#1202788411

Jazzy wrote:

Majestic!!! Even she knows she’s winning.

Will she pull off a JLaw?

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#1202787593

Joe Burns wrote:

I wonder what clips they”ll show..

I think,
For Colman, it would be “Look at me. How dare you?”.
For Glenn, it would be “I can’t do it. I can’t stand the humiliation’

[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 299 View Predictions]

#1202787580

With all those ballots, standing ovation and following experts’ choice, I went for Stallone that year. Then, I told myself the only thing that I should trust is the precursor award. But here I am again, predicting Regina King, who is not nominated in SAG and BAFTA. I would be punching myself up and down if Weisz wins tomorrow.

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#1202787562

Eddy Q wrote:

I’m still predicting Ali, but all these anonymous ballots for Grant have planted seeds of doubt in my mind. I now think Malek, not Ali, is the most secure of the four acting frontrunners; not only is he backed by the precursors, but the majority of the published ballots went for him including, astonishingly, all 20 of those surveyed by the New York Times. While I’m ignoring the ballots for supporting actor and sticking with the ever-reliable stats, it’s easier to imagine recent Oscar-winner Ali losing at the last hurdle to a clear alternative choice than it is for Malek, none of whose competitors seem to have a huge amount of passionate support behind them.

These secret ballots are made to confuse you. In those ballots, the presumed strong frontrunner seems to be struggling (e.g. Ali, Malek, Close, Cuaron, Blackkklansman for screenplay) while the weaker frontrunner (i.e. King) is dominating. They made almost all people believe that Stallone is the overwhelming favourite.

I agreed that Malek is winning in a landslide. Tariq said 90% of the SAG voters he interviewed were voting for Malek at the time. It cannot really reflect the academy but the industry support can convert into momentum.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 299 View Predictions]

#1202787468

It is Ali’s to lose. BAFTA win sealed the deal for him because even Grant who is British could not win there.

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[MontyParticipant Joined: Jan 21st, 2015 Topics: 1 Posts: 299 View Predictions]

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金娜璉 wrote:

My ‘no guts no game’ predictions will be Green Book winning for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay (instead of Roma and The Favourite). That and I’m also predicting Rachel Weisz because why not. I’m honestly going to regret these predictions so much but, whatever.

I am predicting Green Book for picture and screenplay too. I remember Birdman and Lord of the Ring winning screenplay because the film was winning best picture.

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#1202785895

I think it is a 6-4 race between Close and Colman and the closest acting race of the year. Who is 6 and who is 4? We can only know when the envelope opens. My head told me it is Close but my heart goes to Colman.

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#1202784352

Zooey the Dreamer wrote:

Don’t consider anybody a lock based on these.
Back in 2016, Stallone was the supporting actor winner on ALL secret ballots. ALL of them.

I guess those secret ballots mainly come from the voters in US. In the case of Stallone/Rylance race, Rylance should get the majority of the votes from the British. That’s why Rylance gets so few votes in the secret ballots.

It is the same scenario for the King/Weisz race. The race is closer than the ballots have shown us. But I guess King would still win at the end, in a photo-finish.

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#1202783676

linecelts wrote:

I have a feeling we’re going to see an upset in Best Picture and Original Screenplay. I have a feeling Roma might not take Best Picture and I’m getting a feeling that we might see a very surprised winner for Original Screenplay.

If Green Book wins original screenplay, it is going to win best picture as well.

Picture: Roma (spoiler: Green Book)
Director: Alfonso Cuaron (lock of the night)
Actor: Rami Malek (locked)
Actress: Glenn Close (spoiler: Olivia Colman)
S. Actor: Mahershali Ali (locked)
S. Actress: Regina King (spoiler: Rachel Weisz)
O. Screenplay: The Favoutite (spoiler: Green Book)
A. Screenplay: Blackkklansman

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#1202783451

MarinaBelo2 wrote:

It doesn’t make sense, in theory. But when you see how the voters think, with those anonymous ballots, you notice that they really want to vote for the winners, more than they want their favorites winning. The sheep mentality is real!

Also, I think I’ve read somewhere that the SAG nominees are decided by a small group of members. So a lot of voters were probably looking for Regina to vote for after she won the Globes, and with her absence, decided to vote for Blunt because she wasn’t a threat to Regina without an Oscar nom. Obviously, I’m not saying everyone that voted for Blunt took that into account, but believe me: many did.

So, you also think people voted for Idris Elba in SAG because he is the least threatening to Stallone?

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#1202782028

Lagg wrote:

Those anonymous Oscars ballots is really confusing people’s minds.

Don’t take them too seriously. They can choose whatever ballot they want to show to make the race more exciting than it actually was or cover the real situation.

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