[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205180492

Carol Burnett means they actually watched the whole BCS season and had passion for it, should win drama easily

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[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205123841

Interesting that D’arcy and Smith were completely absent from this week’s episode. I guess my theory that D’arcy could fraud lead is really off the table now, but I still think Considine could and should

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205109346

Per Fox Searchlight FYC Ralph Feinnes is lead in The Menu. I doubt he can happen but maybe he’s top 10?

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205103475

I don’t understand the narrative about Succession going down… It won every single primetime award that it didn’t have a vote split for, and managed a triple vote split win. It could easily add directing and Snook next year with Squid Game and Garner out of the picture. (Assuming the Crown also has multiple directing nominees)

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205102616

Since many are predicting All Quiet on the Western Front in picture and winning international, I wonder if it could get in adapted screenplay. It’s probably the most well known source material in the category, and 1917 proved war films can do it

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[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205102613

I really hope glass onion’s campaign as original is a mistake because the last thing we need is one of the only good adapted contenders moving to the packed original.

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[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205101224

Does anyone think it’s possible that Emma d’arcy and Olivia Cooke could go lead? I mean possible, not correct. I know it would be pretty strange since they’re only in half of the episodes, but if the last episode was any indication, they really feel like the true leads at this point, whereas the younger versions always seemed supporting. It would still be fraud of course, but since lead actress seems thin and Succession has no leads, HBO might consider it?

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205098895

crabbie wrote:

Considering BOTH The Last Duel and House of Gucci flopped last season, I would not consider Napoleon to be a film that shakes up the race.

True, but if best actress last year was as barren as best actor this year then Lady Gaga would have been nominated right? Maybe even Comer. So I think Joaquin could absolutely be a factor.

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205098856

Rumors are circling on twitter about apple dropping one of their big films in December to shake up the race. Maybe Napoleon or KOTFM. Either one would have big implications in best actor

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205098685

First attempt of predictions (ranked by likelihood of nomination).

Tier 1 (would be shocked if they missed)

1. Fablemans

2. Women Talking

3. Banshees of Inisherin

Tier 2 (very likely)

4. EEAAO

5. Top Gun: Maverick

6. Babylon

Tier 3 (crapshoot)

7. Tar

8. She Said

9. Avatar 2

10. All Quiet on the Western Front

 

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205098016

I hope Considine goes lead. I think he’d have an easier time there and he actually is a lead imo

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205093706

I never like category fraud but Gleeson, Dano or Pitt going lead would sure help this field a lot

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205092996

Without spoiling the fablemans, can someone who’s seen it say if Williams’ screentime is comparable to Dano? I’m wondering if he’ll be moved lead as well, which unlike Williams would actually be great since supporting actor is packed and lead actor is barren

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205085417

I think we can all agree that Fraser, Butler and Farrell are “safe.” If Gleeson/Pitt goes lead, either one is fourth, but I think they’re going supporting. If I’m forced to pick 2 more contenders out of the field I’ll go with Calva and Jackman, but I’m hoping some surprise international contenders end up filling the last two slots.

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 205 View Predictions]

#1205085249

wolfali wrote:

Odenkirk can definitely miss but he’s not missing for Kevin Costner when the latter’s show got completely shut out this year in spite of SAG and PGA nominations and an audience and pundit led failed awards campaign…

I doubt it as well, hence the question mark. Cox and Strong are the only ones I mentioned ahead of him for sure, but I can see a (unlikely) world where the others get ahead too