[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204782946

The French Dispatch in Original Screenplay over Being the Ricardos

Licorice Pizza in Costume Design over Nightmare Alley and Cyrano

Don’t Look Up in Film Editing over West Side Story, Tick Tick Boom, No Time to Die, and King Richard

Last Night in Soho AND A Quiet Place Part II in Sound over Belfast

Great Freedom in International over A Hero

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204782931

Not predicting it but West Side Story being snubbed in Costumes wouldn’t shock me at this point. That being said, I’m not predicting it, though I am predicting a miss for Nightmare Alley and Cyrano in favor of Licorice Pizza.

As crazy as it may sound, I do wonder if Olivia Colman could miss Actress. Not because she was snubbed at BAFTA, but because that film is just not that well liked outside film and Oscars circles. I’m keeping her because 1) I have 100/1 odds and I’m definitely not letting that go at this late date and 2) she’s Olivia Colman. Also I don’t know who would be nominated instead.

I’m most certainly not confident enough to predict this but I’m keeping the possibility of both Branagh AND Spielberg being snubbed for (obviously) Hamaguchi and either Joel Coen or Adam McKay.

What I am confident enough to predict, though, is Belfast missing Sound (I find it hard to believe a sound designer who watches the film won’t notice the mic wire in the film) and Original Song (it’s not available to listen to on any music platforms last I checked, much like Wuhan Flu last year), A Hero missing International (I have Great Freedom in its place but I could see Compartment No 6 or Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom getting in as well), and either Ricardos or King Richard missing Original Screenplay (I’m going Ricardos since I don’t have it in Picture and replacing it with The French Dispatch).

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204695296

crabbie wrote:

Cumberbatch has the British bloc. Don’t overthink it.

Cumberbatch is definitely possible, but I think the reason people go to him over Garfield as an alternative aside from him sweeping critics’ awards is because he’s in the movie that will either win Best Picture or be the runner-up (it’ll be no lower than 3rd). Plus him being British would help him pull ahead like Hopkins over Boseman I guess. The thing is, the comparison between the Hopkins/Boseman and Cumberbatch/Smith doesn’t make that much sense when you think about it. The Father had a really late campaign after people had already forgotten about Ma Rainey’s. Neither King Richard or PotD or even TTB have that advantage. It’s an equal playing field this year. There’s also the fact that Hopkins was a legend and was himself doing the most aside from Boseman. I wouldn’t call Cumberbatch quiet necessarily but especially compared to Garfield he’s pretty damn subtle. And that’s not a bad thing at all, he’s fantastic and would deserve a win. I just don’t necessarily think it helps him. Although I will throw the caveat out there that Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) won and were both very subtle so I won’t deny Cumberbatch’s chances. I just think Garfield might have more of a chance because he tugs at the heartstrings more.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204695257

I’ve been having a lot of thoughts about Andrew Garfield potentially pulling an Eddie Redmayne over Michael Keaton/Rami Malek over Bradley Cooper and Christian Bale (though obviously he is universes better than Redmayne and Malek). You have the person with the baitty performance who has a compelling narrative (overdue, playing against type, etc) but they wind up going against someone who has a bigger and flashier performance. Now, Eddie Redmayne isn’t “big” necessarily, but he played someone who is suffering from ALS and he did a physical transformation into a real person. Rami Malek did a physical transformation while singing assuming you count lip-syncing as singing anyway and dancing. Garfield is playing a real person and although it may not be a physical transformation it’s certainly an emotional one. I rewatched a couple scenes from Tick Tick Boom and he is big and loud and does so much. Singing, crying, capturing the audience’s hearts, he’s in every scene in the movie, you could honestly make a case for him giving the biggest performance in the category and maybe of all the contenders just in general. If we assume Tick Tick Boom gets into Best Picture (which it’s at least looking good for imo) and we assume Will Smith misses BAFTA, maybe it’s not Cumberbatch who comes up and beats Smith but it’s Garfield instead.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204692691

I cast my votes mainly for people and movies who I think will be under-recognized here. I’ll just drop my FYCs here (wins indicated in bold)

LICORICE PIZZA – Best Picture, Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Actress (Alana Haim), Actor (Cooper Hoffman), Original Screenplay, Ensemble, Breakthrough Performer (Haim AND Hoffman) Cinematography, Editing, Production Design

C’MON C’MON – Picture, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), Supporting Actress (Gaby Hoffman), Supporting Actor (Woody Norman), Original Screenplay, Score

THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD – Picture, Director, Actress (Renate Reinsve), Original Screenplay, Editing, International Feature

RED ROCKET – Picture, Director, Actor (Simon Rex), Supporting Actress (Susanna Son), Original Screenplay, Breakthrough Performer (Rex AND Son)

Also, please add The Humans in Sound, Anders Danielsen Lie in Supporting Actor, and Nine Days in literally every possible category thank you

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204627078

7 nominees in each category, except Picture which has 10

1. Spencer
2. Dune
3. The Worst Person in the World
4. Flee
5. Tick Tick Boom
6. The Humans
7. The Power of the Dog
8. The Green Knight
9. Drive My Car
10. Nine Days

Best Director

1. Pablo Larrain (Spencer)
2. Denis Villeneuve (Dune)
3. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog
4. Stephen Karam (The Humans)
5. Joachim Trier (The Worst Person in the World)
6. David Lowery (The Green Knight)
7. Julia Ducournau (Titane)

Best Actor

1. Andrew Garfield (Tick Tick Boom)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
3. Jason Isaacs (Mass)
4. Hidetoshi Nishijima (Drive My Car)
5. Nicolas Cage (Pig)
6. Dev Patel (The Green Knight)
7. Winston Duke (Nine Days)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
2. Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
3. Martha Plimpton (Mass)
4. Tessa Thompson (Passing)
5. Jodie Comer (The Last Duel)
6. Rachel Sennott (Shiva Baby)
7. Tilda Swinton (Memoria)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Richard Jenkins (The Humans)
2. Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World)
3. Robin De Jesus (Tick Tick Boom)
4. Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
5. Benedict Wong (Nine Days)
6. Timothy Spall (Spencer)
7. Oscar Isaac (Dune)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ruth Negga (Passing)
2. Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans)
3. Ann Dowd (Mass)
4. Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
5. Sally Hawkins (Spencer)
6. Zazie Beetz (Nine Days)
7. Rebecca Ferguson (Dune)

Best Ensemble

1. The Humans
2. Tick Tick Boom
3. The Worst Person in the World
4. Mass
5. Dune
6. Nine Days
7. Drive My Car

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Humans (Stephen Karam)
2. The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
3. Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
4. Passing (Rebecca Hall)
5. Dune (Denis Villenevue, Jon Spaiths, and Eric Roth)
6. Tick Tick Boom (Steven Levinson)
7. The Green Knight (David Lowery)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Worst Person in the World (Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt)
2. Nine Days (Edson Oda)
3. Mass (Fran Kranz)
4. Spencer (Steven Knight)
5. Shiva Baby (Emma Seligman)
6. Pig (Michael Sarnoski and Vanessa Block)
7. Titane (Julia Ducournau)

Best Choreography/Stunts

1. Dune
2. Tick Tick Boom
3. Titane
4. The Green Knight
5. No Time to Die
6. The Last Duel
7. Prisoners of the Ghostland

Best Cinematography

1. Spencer
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. The Green Knight
5. The Humans
6. Titane
7. Nine Days

Best Costume Design

1. Spencer
2. Dune
3. The Green Knight
4. Passing
5. The Suicide Squad
6. Titane
7. Prisoners of the Ghostland

Best Editing

1. Dune
2. Flee
3. Tick Tick Boom
4. The Humans
5. Spencer
6. The Worst Person in the World
7. Titane

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Dune
2. The Green Knight
3. Titane
4. Spencer
5. The Suicide Squad
6. Prisoners of the Ghostland
7. Shang-Chi

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. The Green Knight
3. The Humans
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Nine Days
6. Spencer
7. Prisoners of the Ghostland

Best Score

1. Spencer
2. Dune
3. The Power of the Dog
4. The Green Knight
5. Nine Days
6. Passing
7. Annette

Best Sound

1. Dune
2. The Humans
3. Titane
4. The Green Knight
5. Last Night in Soho
6. Memoria
7. Nine Days

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. The Green Knight
3. Flee
4. Prisoners of the Ghostland
5. The Suicide Squad
6. Godzilla vs Kong
7. Shang-Chi

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

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[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204614477

Couple of questions

1. if the 10th slot in Picture comes down to CODA and C’mon C’mon (not necessarily a likely scenario but a possible one nonetheless), which one gets in?
2. For those who’ve seen both films, which did you prefer? (I haven’t seen C’mon C’mon yet so I can’t judge for myself until I watch it)

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204595895

Stefania wrote:

Judging from the first reviews, “House of Gucci” might be in that grey area where a film with mixed reviews is pushed by the audience into a Best Picture nomination (think “Jojo Rabbit”). If the box office is strong it might sneak in.

Having seen the film myself, I’m not sure how it’ll play to people. If the audience scores are strong and the box office is good then yeah that’ll be the bellwether, but I could see this being like 6.7 territory on IMDb when it’s all said and done. I’ll admit this may be me manifesting because I thought the movie was horrible, But it strikes me as a film that could be more mixed than anticipated.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204584084

kaziz wrote:

Well I just don’t think they’re comparable races. Stewart has been the frontrunner basically since Venice, Carey was a tenuous frontrunner later in the season and it really felt like it could go one of 4 ways. Maybe it ends up like that this season but it really feels like Stewart vs. Other challenger(s)

That’s fair I was just using an example of a contender who looked like she could win but was negatively affected by “well so and so is better”.

If you want a closer example, Glenn Close in 2018 and Chadwick may fit the bill better

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204584049

Cosmia wrote:

Apparently the tea is that AMPAS likes Spencer a lot more than we’d expect them to. It’s got a lot of love within the industry.

That’s amazing news and gives me hope for Kristen, but I can’t help but think about how Promising Young Woman was at least a top 3 contender last year winning Original Screenplay and arguably being the runner-up in Director, even hearing from Kyle Buchanan that a decent chunk of members put it at #1 and then Carey still lost. I’ve made my excuses because I was rooting for her all the way, but there was a similar problem where some people, while they didn’t dislike her or even have problems with her performance necessarily, thought Frances or Viola or even Vanessa were at least as deserving or that the writing was the biggest strength of the film and not Carey. This might be just me playing 5D chess in my mind, but it’s something that I’m concerned about and something I can’t really get out of my mind.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204584022

I’ll say that I have seen some people who either don’t like Kristen’s performance or like it but have problems with it (I don’t understand that at all, I think she’s phenomenal, but some people just don’t have the same feelings as me). I don’t know how many of those people are members of the Academy, but I do think this is something we need to consider. The only thing is that I’m not so sure there’s a clear alternative to her.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204581181

This site is seriously sleeping on Alana Haim. She may not be as big a star as Lady Gaga or Jennifer Hudson, but it seems as though she’s getting more praise than both of them and she’s in what could potentially be a Best Picture winner. Perhaps it depends on how much the Academy embraces the film but if it’s a big contender and in contention to win, I think she comes along.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204567721

With the Gucci reactions I am officially campaigning for Alana Haim to get a Best Actress nomination

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204558943

Honestly I think the plummeting MC score for Spencer is more worrying for Stewart’s chances than the low RT audience score. At this point we have to acknowledge the reality that Stewart is potentially not as strong as we thought she would be.

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2374 View Predictions]

#1204556615

When does the embargo drop because I don’t think this is a film I wanna trust Letterboxd for lmfao

FYC
Dune in All Categories (esp. Director, Score, Sound, and Visual Effects)
Spencer in All Categories (esp. Actress, Cinematography, and Costume Design)
The Worst Person in the World in All Categories (esp. Original Screenplay and International Feature)
Flee in All Categories (esp. Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature)
The Power of the Dog in All Categories (esp. Actor and Adapted Screenplay)