[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205340066

babypook wrote:

Gus! Which film do you think is the best? Whatever it is it isn’t going to overtake EEAAO.

i can’t tell if this is a question in good faith given the final sentence.
my preferences never win Best Picture anymore and I am well comfortable with that. Hurt Locker was close to my favorite that year and that was the last time it even came close.
for me, it’s The Fabelmans (the clear best) and Avatar: TWOW from these ten. The rest is way behind. Not a great list imo

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205340060

Mattjp1097 wrote:

I am quoting The Wrap, actually. About Mulligan, I counted 9 and 5 for McDormand.

i posted here the link with a doc in which a generous poster compiled all the ballots from that year at the time. He also linked the ballots used. Mulligan had double the votes McDormand had. You can check the inconsistencies in other categories too

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205340052

George Ehret wrote:

I’ve learned my lesson from predicting Mulligan. If I had known it was almost completely useless to predict based on hypothetical scenarios that year, I probably wouldn’t have predicted her. Also just cause you predicted McDormand right and I didn’t doesn’t mean you’re onto something.

it doesn’t seem that you learned the right lessons though. Bafta and AACTA are the two awards bodies with a similar make up to the Academy. They’re not guilds, they’re older in average and everyone votes for everything. Both these awards wholy rejected EEAAO, even Quan. I don’t expect the Academy to reject that movie, but I also can clearly see there are strong signs telling me it’s not gonna be a sweeper and it can be vulnerable. AQOTWF’s embrace at Bafta can’t be ignored, and it reflects in the way people are now predicting it to be a strong contender for tech wins and screenplay. It doesn’t take much to know it also has an appeal to a majority of who makes up the Academy. The top 2 is clear to me, what isn’t clear is if it can open to an upset.
the lesson you should have learned is to never close your mind about the possibilities. It doesn’t hurt

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205340021

estrelas wrote:

Not yall fighting over ballots…

i’m not fighting. I don’t have a side in the best picture debacle. For me, EEAAO and AQOTWF are actually the two worst films in the list of ten. I am just objectively looking at which films have a path to win. Undeniably EEAAO is the frontrunner. AQOTWF I believe has a path to an upset. No one else stands a chance. That’s all. I understand the poster though, clearly a stan given he has a scene from the movie in his avatar and wants to not have anything to worry about on Sunday. Believe me, I’ve been there in the past too

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339980

George Ehret wrote:

The whole “it wasn’t nominated at all these guilds” line is giving “Carey Mulligan wasn’t nominated at BAFTA”. It really doesn’t matter that much, EEAAO has won everything already, All Quiet’s not gonna just upend the momentum with only BAFTA.

 

yet you predicted Mulligan to win lmao. I predicted McDormand.

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339951

George Ehret wrote:

And neither do you so…

but you are readily dismissing AQOTWF’s chances. I checked, you had it at 4th to win Best Film at Bafta and it won. It wasn’t nominated at PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA where EEAAO won. This was a late movie for Netflix. For the longest time their priority even in International Film was Bardo. Their campaign really only hit on phase two. We will see to what effect on Sunday

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339941

George Ehret wrote:

Doesn’t matter if Berger is there or not, they’re still picking the movie in the most important categories to win Picture.

you don’t know what’s going to win

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339919

Mattjp1097 wrote:

Maybe around 15%

you’re just guessing and you’re wrong like you were with the Mulligan votes

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339915

George Ehret wrote:

I don’t think there’s any need to, especially if everyone’s still voting for the Daniels in Director and Screenplay

 

berger isn’t nominated in director and All Quiet is in adapted

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339892

Moviebuff22 wrote:

These voters do know a lot of these people in All Quiet ended up becoming Nazis and supporting Hitler right…lmao

the movie and the book is about the experience of war, not the ideology

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339862

John Berchmans wrote:

It hasn’t been that many. The large majority of these ballots still have Everything Everywhere at the top.

 

yes but these are American ballots. If that movie has strong support coming from overseas, it could spell trouble

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339810

Mattjp1097 wrote:

Nope, Mulligan had 8/9, McDormand 5/6,

https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/13MrhnB38pTDu7ZwtkbejfxarsTZraIQ6wd7aBHaLUmA/mobilebasic

mulligan 10-11

mcdormand 4-5

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339273

pierremg wrote:

LEADING ACTRESS Kristen Stewart-4 Penelope Cruz-17 Nicole Kidman-1 Olivia Colman-2 Jessica Chastain-3

the year before I think Mulligan was the only one with even more than ten votes

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339254

Mladen wrote:

Anonymous ballots come from those that leak information to the journalists. This is basically a circle. The Oscar voters give some inside information from their circles, journalists form their predictions on that, and once the ballots come out, the predictions are confirmed. Like NBP ballots confirming everything that group has predicted etc. It is practically the circular information and we are being fed the same info we have heard countless times.

but even on Goldderby ballots… there wasn’t a single vote for McDormand two years ago, Colman was way behind Close etc. it’s nothing but a curiosity

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[GusCruz Joined: Dec 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 33 View Predictions]

#1205339248

federico rubachin wrote:

but isn’t that a portion where many believe all quiet was not very strong?

 

I wasn’t replying to any particular conversation. It’s just an yearly reminder. These people are the most susceptible to campaigning and narratives but they aren’t the whole of the Academy. You can even tell by the reasoning they use in the anonymous ballots that they’re up to date to the online conversations, no surprise they are even willing to share their votes. I have multiple times tried to reach out to some voters and discover who they were voting for and they wouldn’t open up to me — at least not directly. Keep in mind, the ones that talk want to be heard

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