[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205272626

Watched To Leslie last night and wow Andrea Riseborough was very, very good. I don’t like the way her campaign unfolded, but her performance is very deserving. This just reaffirms my view that Michelle Williams and Ana de Armas are the two that really shouldn’t have been in this line-up.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205269794

abelfenty wrote:

Saw The Whale tonight. Did anyone else prefer Hong Chau in The Menu, or is it just me? That being said she was very good and her nomination is deserved.

I thought she was brilliantly funny in The Menu, but she literally made me cry in The Whale so I think I’m going to have to go with that one.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205267780

Michelle needs to win SAG, or she’s done for I fear.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205265324

I’m glad The Whale got snubbed in adapted so that Women Talking can win, and I say that as someone who actually liked The Whale lol.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205265015

Best Picture
1 Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 The Banshees of Inisherin
3 Tár
4 All Quiet on the Western Front
5 Triangle of Sadness
6 Women Talking
7 Avatar: The Way of Water
8 Top Gun Maverick
9 The Fablemans
10 Elvis

Best Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, EEAAO
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, The Whale
Best Supporting Actor: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Original Screenplay: Tár
Adapted Screenplay: Living
Animated Feature: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
International Feature: Decision to Leave All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Costume Design: Elvis
Best Editing: EEAAO
Best Make-up and Hairstyling: The Batman
Best Production Design: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Score: Banshees of Inisherin
Best Song: This Is a Life, EEAAO
Best Sound: The Batman
Best VFX: Avatar: The Way of Water

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205264990

Not Wolfali being on the same payroll as Francis Fisher, Kate Winslet, Gwyneth Paltrow , Edward Norton, and Charlize Theron.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205264395

I’m thrilled that Hong Chau is finally getting her much due recognition after years of delivering fantastic work. She’s absolutely breath-taking in The Whale and it’s one of my favorite performances of the year. I’m very happy for Stephanie Hsu made it in as well, I doubted her till the very end and I’m happy that I was wrong. This line-up has 5 fantastic performances and it might be my favorite out of the 4 acting line-ups.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205264370

Danielle Deadwyler’s snub is on the level or perhaps even worse than the Amy Adam’s Arrival snub imo. Danielle was incredible and should’ve been competing for the win. I’m sure Andrea is great in To Leslie, but the way she was able to jump ahead of two black women by leveraging her friendships with white actresses leaves a bit of a sour taste in my mouth.

Also not here for Michelle-category-fraud-Williams and the Marilyn Monroe impersonator that stared in an NC-17 fan fiction about a deceased woman.

Danielle and Viola deserved better. It’s just really sad honestly.

[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205263289

The Academy would snub the two black actresses in favor of a performance in a razzie nominated mess and a performance that no one had even heard of till a week ago. Trashy.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205257033

Choosing between Andrew Dominik and David O Russell for worst director kind of the most difficult decision of my life.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205254516

Final Predictions:

1 Angela Bassett
2 Kerry Condon
If you’re not predicting these two, wyd?

3 Dolly de Leon
4 Jamie Lee Curtis
5 Hong Chau
6 Stephanie Hsu
These 4 feel very interchangable, but I think Dolly gets in via international support and Hong Chau gets carried in by The Whale’s late surge. JLC could get snubbed, but she has made every single precursor and honestly isn’t the type of actor that is typically the victim of an Oscar snub. Also I think it’s highly likely she was one of the BAFTA voters top 3, because I don’t see the jury picking her as one of the nominees. That all being said, none of them feel like complete locks so maybe Stephanie will make it in.

7 Carrie Mulligan
Hypothetically could happen but I’m not really feeling it.

[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205254514

FYC: Marilyn Monroe’s talking fetus in all categories

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205249662

I’m really glad The Batman got a lot of love.

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[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205248866

JLC is definitely vulnerable. If not enough people put her at #1 she could definitely be the surprise snub.

For what it’s worth I hope both her and Stephanie Hsu get nominated (on a rewatch I really grew to appreciate JLC’s performance and how well she balanced the comedic and dramatic elements of her role). But, honestly Hsu was the heart of the film and if only one of them can make it she should be the one in the Oscar 5.

[Hawk Joined: Aug 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 439 View Predictions]

#1205248860

The Whale is definitely 50/50 right now on if it’ll make the best picture line-up, but its potential package of Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Make-up is a better package than a lot of best picture hopefuls are looking at.

I’m still leaning slightly towards Austin Butler winning, but Brendan has gotten a big boost in the past few weeks.