[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1205092175

Bonehead Is Afraid wrote:

Corsage giving In the Fade, The Good Boss, I’m Your Man, etc. Whenever there’s an international film that stars a recognizable actor from American cinema, the branch tends to pass over it. It makes sense. Why would the film need the extra push from the Academy if it already has a built-in marketing tool?

I see that, definitely. Could be a similar situation.

Keep in mind Another Round, Pain & Glory, and The Square were all nominated in recent years too. Albeit bigger films, they also had some heavy top-billing.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1205092159

I think the final five nominations will look something like this—

Close (Belgium) *
Corsage (Austria)
EO (Poland)
Decision To Leave (South Korea)
Bardo (Mexico)

(With a longlist of)—
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Saint Omer (France)
Klondike (Ukraine)
Alcarras (Spain)
World War III (Iran)

EDIT: WAIT! Is the longlist 15 again? Forgot about that. If so, adding these:
Eternal Spring (Canada)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Utama (Bolivia)
… and, two more… (maybe Pakistan’s Joyland?)

I’m not sold on Close winning (I haven’t even seen it), but I think it’s the frontrunner at this point. I think there’s going to be a solid selection this year that’ll result in an even competition.

Surprised Iceland didn’t go with Godland.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1205066515

This is a bit of an odd category this year. I could see any one of Paul Dano, Woody Harrelson or Ke Huy Quan pulling a win, yet it feel like everyone else is miles away from the competition. Whishaw and Keoghan might land the other two noms, but I don’t quite see them winning.

Feeling one of those first three, but not a clue which. I imagine the reaction to Ke Huy Quan winning would be astounding.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1205066490

I feel like I’m alone here, but does anyone else think Triangle of Sadness could be a frontrunner for both of these categories? This might be due to my absolute lack of interest in The Fabelmans, but I can’t see Spielberg landing another BP for it. I doubt it’ll be a complete flop, but it just sounds so… stale. See what the TIFF reaction is this week I suppose.

I think something more explosive (Triangle of Sadness/ Everything Everywhere/ possibly Babylon) could be very appealing to voters after two years of subtler Best Picture winners.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1205066473

Due to the somewhat thinner field this year (which, I only see getting thinner as screenings continue), I think Song Kang-Ho is going to land a (5th seed) nomination. I know South Korea didn’t submit Broker, but it’s worth noting Penelope Cruz landed a nomination without Parallel Mothers being submitted. It would be the Academy’s way of making up for his 2019 snub (despite a much tougher field that season)— which… is something they do.

But it’s looking like Jackman’s to lose— Fraser could pull it off, but I’m still heavily leaning towards Hugh.

I’m also under the impression Butler could be a surprise miss.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204720159

The Power of The Dog not making ensemble is bizarre. I thought it would actually be an easy win, with the only main competition being West Side Story or maybe Dune. I guess… Don’t Look Up or House of Gucci will win? I can’t see it being King Richard or Belfast.

Stewart being snubbed is sad. Hoping she still lands the Oscar. Not a clue who’ll win that category.

Supporting actress is also a bit odd. I could see any of them winning bar Blanchett.

And what’s going on with Affleck? I haven’t seen The Tender Bar, but I’m hearing pretty awful things. Is it actually a nomination-worthy performance? I’d be shocked if he lands an Oscar nom.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204672730

Shocked France didn’t make the cut. Wouldn’t have ever guessed that.

Also surprised Memoria didn’t land the shortlist.

I liked Playground quite a bit. I thought it was a sharp work. Glad it made it through. The Bhutan pick is a bit of fun, but it’s really not… great by any means.

I think Drive My Car will take the Oscar, with the possibility of Flee.

X

Reply

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204650855

Just curious to the consensus— who’s the frontrunner for Actress C/M? Haim?

Note— I haven’t seen West Side Story yet, and know nothing of Zegler.

X

Reply

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204650687

Not to sound like someone living under a rock, but all of these nominations are a surprise to me because I thought the GGs were cancelled this year.

Anyway, scrolling the list, I’m happy to see these noms—
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Emma Stone (Cruella)
Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Cotillard (Annette)
& the score from The French Dispatch showing up.

Adam Driver not showing up anywhere is a little surprising, but I kinda get it. PTA should have landed a BD nom. Spencer is the best score of the year, not sure what happened there. No Nightmare Alley, unless I’m mistaken… which was maybe a deadline issue? And no C’mon C’mon is a little disappointing too. Otherwise, sure. Cool.

Weirdest thing on the board is that random Affleck nomination.

X

Reply

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204443283

Arman_Saxena wrote:

Would Compartment No. 6 be a Finnish or Russian submission?

Finland.

X

Reply

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204442830

QueenSansa wrote:

And?

And nothing. It’s McDormand playing Lady Macbeth opposite Denzel Washington, with Joel Coen directing. That’s all. That’s enough for me.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204442807

QueenSansa wrote:

How can anyone call McDormand a lock for an as-yet totally unseen film??

It’s Macbeth. She’s playing Lady Macbeth. Unseen or not, it’s centuries familiar, and full of potential. Coen/McDormand/Denzel/Shakespeare/Delbonnel probably won’t miss.

Anyway. Chiming in come part 11 (?!?!?!).

Stewart or Gaga winning an Oscar would be wild. I’m all for either though, and I think it’ll happen.

McDormand will land a nom, but most likely not win.

Chastain’s got an easy bet here. Almost like McCarthey in 2018.

Emilia Jones would be well-deserving of a nom. Hope it happens.

Colman will proooobably land another nom here, but maybe 5th slot.

And I don’t think Hudson is in this race as much as people think.

(Also, I’m under the impression Ana de Armas is completely out, right?)

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204442781

I’ve yet to watch Mass, but I could see Ann Dowd pulling a win. She’s an excellent actress with a long history and a lot of respect in the industry who has never quite had a powerhouse role to push her to the Oscars.

This isn’t a controversial opinion or anything, she’s #1 on the odds, but as it sits I could see it happening. I think she’s actually the frontrunner by a lot.

I liked CODA (a lot), but Matlin is not walking away with a win for it. A nom would be fair.

Mara/Collette will probably cancel each other out a little.

Dunst could be cool though. I like her. Heard good things about her performance too.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204442715

Interesting to see the impact of Cannes this year. Not sure how heavy of a hitter Titane, Memoria or Compartment No.6 will be, but I could see them all being selected (Memoria for Colombia). Not sure if Israel will go with Ahed’s Knee…

Some fog could clear after Venice wraps. Could be 5-6 submissions in the line-up.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s having a wild year. I imagine Japan will pick one of his two films. (I don’t think Wife of A Spy is eligible this year, but he wrote that too…).

X

Reply

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 316 View Predictions]

#1204441106

Michael K. Williams has been found dead at 54.