[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204720159

The Power of The Dog not making ensemble is bizarre. I thought it would actually be an easy win, with the only main competition being West Side Story or maybe Dune. I guess… Don’t Look Up or House of Gucci will win? I can’t see it being King Richard or Belfast.

Stewart being snubbed is sad. Hoping she still lands the Oscar. Not a clue who’ll win that category.

Supporting actress is also a bit odd. I could see any of them winning bar Blanchett.

And what’s going on with Affleck? I haven’t seen The Tender Bar, but I’m hearing pretty awful things. Is it actually a nomination-worthy performance? I’d be shocked if he lands an Oscar nom.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204672730

Shocked France didn’t make the cut. Wouldn’t have ever guessed that.

Also surprised Memoria didn’t land the shortlist.

I liked Playground quite a bit. I thought it was a sharp work. Glad it made it through. The Bhutan pick is a bit of fun, but it’s really not… great by any means.

I think Drive My Car will take the Oscar, with the possibility of Flee.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204650855

Just curious to the consensus— who’s the frontrunner for Actress C/M? Haim?

Note— I haven’t seen West Side Story yet, and know nothing of Zegler.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204650687

Not to sound like someone living under a rock, but all of these nominations are a surprise to me because I thought the GGs were cancelled this year.

Anyway, scrolling the list, I’m happy to see these noms—
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza)
Emma Stone (Cruella)
Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Cotillard (Annette)
& the score from The French Dispatch showing up.

Adam Driver not showing up anywhere is a little surprising, but I kinda get it. PTA should have landed a BD nom. Spencer is the best score of the year, not sure what happened there. No Nightmare Alley, unless I’m mistaken… which was maybe a deadline issue? And no C’mon C’mon is a little disappointing too. Otherwise, sure. Cool.

Weirdest thing on the board is that random Affleck nomination.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204443283

Arman_Saxena wrote:

Would Compartment No. 6 be a Finnish or Russian submission?

Finland.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204442830

QueenSansa wrote:

And?

And nothing. It’s McDormand playing Lady Macbeth opposite Denzel Washington, with Joel Coen directing. That’s all. That’s enough for me.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204442807

QueenSansa wrote:

How can anyone call McDormand a lock for an as-yet totally unseen film??

It’s Macbeth. She’s playing Lady Macbeth. Unseen or not, it’s centuries familiar, and full of potential. Coen/McDormand/Denzel/Shakespeare/Delbonnel probably won’t miss.

Anyway. Chiming in come part 11 (?!?!?!).

Stewart or Gaga winning an Oscar would be wild. I’m all for either though, and I think it’ll happen.

McDormand will land a nom, but most likely not win.

Chastain’s got an easy bet here. Almost like McCarthey in 2018.

Emilia Jones would be well-deserving of a nom. Hope it happens.

Colman will proooobably land another nom here, but maybe 5th slot.

And I don’t think Hudson is in this race as much as people think.

(Also, I’m under the impression Ana de Armas is completely out, right?)

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204442781

I’ve yet to watch Mass, but I could see Ann Dowd pulling a win. She’s an excellent actress with a long history and a lot of respect in the industry who has never quite had a powerhouse role to push her to the Oscars.

This isn’t a controversial opinion or anything, she’s #1 on the odds, but as it sits I could see it happening. I think she’s actually the frontrunner by a lot.

I liked CODA (a lot), but Matlin is not walking away with a win for it. A nom would be fair.

Mara/Collette will probably cancel each other out a little.

Dunst could be cool though. I like her. Heard good things about her performance too.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204442715

Interesting to see the impact of Cannes this year. Not sure how heavy of a hitter Titane, Memoria or Compartment No.6 will be, but I could see them all being selected (Memoria for Colombia). Not sure if Israel will go with Ahed’s Knee…

Some fog could clear after Venice wraps. Could be 5-6 submissions in the line-up.

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s having a wild year. I imagine Japan will pick one of his two films. (I don’t think Wife of A Spy is eligible this year, but he wrote that too…).

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204441106

Michael K. Williams has been found dead at 54.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204228940

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/cannes-2021-films-official-selection-lineup-predictions-1234958648/

Also looks like Soggy Bottom, The Power of The Dog, Three Floors, and The Card Counter could land.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204227113

gabspss wrote:

Mine: 1) Anthony Hopkins in The Father 2) Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah 3) Youn Yuh-jung in Minari 4) Frances McDormand in Nomadland What a group!

Same for me.

Overall, it’s an extremely strong group, no matter what is said about the year. Maybe even the best since 2007.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204227060

I hope people don’t think I’m being negative just to jump on some sort of shock wagon, but I’m genuinely not sure McDormand was the right choice. She was very good, and I’m glad she landed a nomination, but this feels like a somewhat weaker Oscar-winning lead role. I had her in 5th, and I didn’t think I was being naive. I truly thought she had the least odds of the five, even with Kirby somewhat trailing.

It’s a very reserved, mature and quiet performance for the Oscars to recognize, especially from an actress who is also reserved, mature and (mostly) quiet, who also just happened to win the same award a few years back. I wasn’t expecting her to win Best Actress in the slightest, and I’m very surprised she left with both awards tonight. Good for her, she’s a phenomenal actress, but for a role where she’s somewhat dialled into being herself more so than usual, I’m just not confident this was the best call when (well… ) there were four other actresses to pick from, none of which have won in the category before, and all of which showed an impressive amount of range.

I hope this is coming across okay. I still think she was very good in the film.

[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204226898

Benedetta and The French Dispatch have been confirmed for competition.

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[Hayden Joined: Nov 11th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 311 View Predictions]

#1204226827

While I know what Boseman’s win would have meant, I must admit I’m glad Hopkins won. I just didn’t think he would.

It was the best performance.

Hopefully this ages well for Boseman… he’ll get a ‘maybe should have won’ treatment instead of a bashing of ‘only won because he died’, and a legacy of a well-deserved nomination.

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