1. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors
2. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
3. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Shahab Hosseini, The Salesman
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence

Since 2000?

Isabelle Huppert, The Piano Teacher
Anamaria Marinca, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
Nina Hoss, Phoenix

The Painted Bird will be divisive. I imagine US critics like Manohla Dargis tearing it apart (IIRC she called Son of Saul “intellectually repellant,” which was pretty admired by most critics).

Roman Polanski won the FIPRESCI Prize for An Officer and a Gentleman (J’Accuse).

She’d have to say something cataclysmically bad to not be nominated (like, something bad enough for white twitter to also be upset over).

Gaga definitely had the benefit of name recognition and the film’s praise. I don’t think she gave one of the best performances by an actress that year, but it’s not exactly a meritocracy.

This one is puzzling to me. I think Antonio is in by a combination of critics and Hollywood friends. I think Adam is locked for Marriage Story. People seem to be rooting for Joaquin and Leo/De Niro seem to be presumed for now as well.

But then there’s Michael B. Jordan, Mark Ruffalo, Jonathan Pryce, Christian Bale, Taron Egerton, Eddie Murphy,…[Read more]

Cynthia Erivo’s chances rest on Harriett being at least good enough. It might get bad buzz out of cinephile circles online for not being *that* good, but it only needs to be as good as stuff like Still Alice, Theory of Everything, and Darkest Hour.

Scarlett Johansson is also a very strong contender to win given her body of work this year (with…[Read more]

Antonio’s Actor chances must have helped that out, because I almost thought they’d choose Amenábar! Hopefully Antonio doesn’t become another Ethan (even if that comes with a Pedro Screenplay nom).

The Marcello Mastroianni Prize is between Babyteeth and The Painted Bird. I think one wins here and one wins another (perhaps Screenplay for Babyteeth, Director for The Painted Bird, but neither for the top prize).

Roy Andersson seems poised for at least some kind of prize, maybe Special or Screenplay.

The festival director Barbera is going…[Read more]

Ad Astra will help Brad in Supporting the way that The Report will help secure an Adam Driver nomination (and possible win). De Niro/DiCaprio I’ll assume until proven otherwise, Phoenix seems to be getting a full push from a major studio, and Antonio Banderas will benefit from critics and his industry connections.

Has Thomasin McKenzie been confirmed to be run as a lead in Jojo Rabbit? I think she would have a much easier time in Supporting, but the predictions center doesn’t give us that option; for now I have ScarJo in her place even though I think she’ll get her nomination and possibly win for Marriage Story (which I am predicting for kind of a sweep).

Psycho for Anthony Perkins’ lead performance
Jurassic Park for John Williams’ score
The Social Network for Andrew Garfield’s supporting performance
Todd Haynes for Carol’s direction
Mask for Cher’s lead performance
The Godfathers I & II for Gordon Willis’ cinematography
12 Angry Men for Lee J. Cobb’s supporting performance
City of God for Best…[Read more]

Daisies by Věra Chytilová
Jeanne Dielman, 23 Commerce Quay, 1080 Brussels by Chantal Akerman
The House is Black by Forugh Farrokhzad
Meshes of the Afternoon by Maya Deren
Cleo from 5 to 7 by Agnès Varda
Beau Travail by Claire Denis
Fire by Deepa Mehta
Paris Is Burning by Jennie Livingston
Sweetie by Jane Campion
Salaam Bombay! by Mira Na…[Read more]

Johansson will be in two BP nominees this year (this and Jojo Rabbit) and the stars haven’t aligned for her this much since 2003, which makes it hard to judge that voters “don’t like her” or something when there hasn’t been this opportune of a moment. I still think Erivo’s ahead of her but if Harriet flops I can certainly see ScarJo as a nice…[Read more]

Word is that Johansson’s role is much more emotional compared to Driver’s.

The Aeronauts [Amazon]
The Farewell [A24]
The Irishman [Netflix]
Jojo Rabbit [Fox Searchlight]
Little Women [Sony]
Marriage Story [Netflix]
1917 [Universal]
Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood [Sony]
Parasite [Neon]

If it plays well on screener it can easily get nominated for Picture, Director, Screenplay, and maybe Production Design in addition to International Film (where it is certainly a frontrunner). A lot of this is because of the recent voter expansion, and I’m glad for that.

1. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (I mean safest for a nomination, not necessarily a frontrunner to win)
2. Robert DeNiro, The Irishman
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
4. Adam Driver, Marriage Story
5. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
—
6. Taron Egerton, Rocketman
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
8. Michael B. Jordan, Just Mercy
9.…[Read more]

I think Pitt is a lot likelier than Robbie, if only because he’s going supporting when he’s truly co-lead and also has stuff like Ad Astra which will probably have some additional critics’ backing.