[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203076225

1. Denis Lavant, Holy Motors
2. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
3. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
4. Shahab Hosseini, The Salesman
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203070565

Since 2000?

Isabelle Huppert, The Piano Teacher
Anamaria Marinca, 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days
Nina Hoss, Phoenix

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203061616

The Painted Bird will be divisive. I imagine US critics like Manohla Dargis tearing it apart (IIRC she called Son of Saul “intellectually repellant,” which was pretty admired by most critics).

Roman Polanski won the FIPRESCI Prize for An Officer and a Gentleman (J’Accuse).

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203059248

Stegeo wrote:

Erivo is honestly not happening.

She’d have to say something cataclysmically bad to not be nominated (like, something bad enough for white twitter to also be upset over).

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203058708

Gaga definitely had the benefit of name recognition and the film’s praise. I don’t think she gave one of the best performances by an actress that year, but it’s not exactly a meritocracy.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203058703

This one is puzzling to me. I think Antonio is in by a combination of critics and Hollywood friends. I think Adam is locked for Marriage Story. People seem to be rooting for Joaquin and Leo/De Niro seem to be presumed for now as well.

But then there’s Michael B. Jordan, Mark Ruffalo, Jonathan Pryce, Christian Bale, Taron Egerton, Eddie Murphy, Adam Sandler, Edward Norton — insanely packed. But like the 2020 Democratic field, there seems to be a pretty firm set of frontrunners.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203058698

Cynthia Erivo’s chances rest on Harriett being at least good enough. It might get bad buzz out of cinephile circles online for not being *that* good, but it only needs to be as good as stuff like Still Alice, Theory of Everything, and Darkest Hour.

Scarlett Johansson is also a very strong contender to win given her body of work this year (with the added bonus of her entire contribution to MCU) so long as she keeps her foot out of her mouth. Although I can understand the difficulty — people took one random aside of a comprehensive interview and made it the Twitter Topic of the Day. She’s a VERY easy target for backlash.

Renée is getting a HELLA good campaign. She can also win.

I’ll keep Saoirse unless proven otherwise. People love her and Little Women looks good enough.

I’d say that last slot is between Awkwafina and Charlize Theron. I think the latter’s pull in Hollywood, recent string of critical respect and incentive from producing the film she’s in will push her in.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203058687

vndavid wrote:

The Spanish Academy just announced ‘Pain and Glory’ will be submitted to represent our country at the Best International Feature Film. Congratulations Pedro!

Antonio’s Actor chances must have helped that out, because I almost thought they’d choose Amenábar! Hopefully Antonio doesn’t become another Ethan (even if that comes with a Pedro Screenplay nom).

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203058680

The Marcello Mastroianni Prize is between Babyteeth and The Painted Bird. I think one wins here and one wins another (perhaps Screenplay for Babyteeth, Director for The Painted Bird, but neither for the top prize).

Roy Andersson seems poised for at least some kind of prize, maybe Special or Screenplay.

The festival director Barbera is going through outlandish means to pressure the jury to reward Polanski’s film. That can be in the form of Jean Dujardin, unless Lucrecia Martel genuinely doesn’t mind giving Polanski a prize.Both Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix have both won before already anyways.

Based on the role I presumed before the festival that Gong Li would be a strong frontrunner for Best Actress, but the reviews of her film seem divisive.

Other Actress options include Catherine Deneuve and Scarlett Johansson, though I feel like the jury might prefer to reward Baumbach himself for the film rather than Adam or ScarJo. I could definitely see Meryl, which would cap her triple-fest crown (having won in Berlin for The Hours and Cannes for A Cry in the Dark).

It also makes sense that Martel would at least push for one of the Latin American contenders — Larraín’s Ema or Ciro Guerra’s Waiting for Barbarians. Haifaa al-Mansour’s A Perfect Candidate hasn’t had strong reviews but could be a politically correct option, perhaps even a counterbalance prize to Polanski.

Best guesses right now –
Golden Lion: Martin Eden by Pietro Marcello
Grand Jury Prize: About Endlessness by Roy Andersson
Silver Lion for Best Director: Václav Marhoul for The Painted Bird
Volpi Cup for Best Actress: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story by Noah Baumbach
Volpi Cup for Best Actor: Jean Dujardin for J’Accuse (An Officer and a Spy) by Roman Polanski
Best Screenplay Award: The Laundromat by Scott Z. Burns
Special Jury Prize: No. 7 Cherry Lane by Yonfan
Marcello Mastroianni Award: Eliza Scanlen for Babyteeth by Shannon Murphy

• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  manakamana.
• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  manakamana.
• This reply was modified 1 month, 2 weeks ago by  manakamana.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203050500

Ad Astra will help Brad in Supporting the way that The Report will help secure an Adam Driver nomination (and possible win). De Niro/DiCaprio I’ll assume until proven otherwise, Phoenix seems to be getting a full push from a major studio, and Antonio Banderas will benefit from critics and his industry connections.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203037900

Has Thomasin McKenzie been confirmed to be run as a lead in Jojo Rabbit? I think she would have a much easier time in Supporting, but the predictions center doesn’t give us that option; for now I have ScarJo in her place even though I think she’ll get her nomination and possibly win for Marriage Story (which I am predicting for kind of a sweep).

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203037875

Psycho for Anthony Perkins’ lead performance
Jurassic Park for John Williams’ score
The Social Network for Andrew Garfield’s supporting performance
Todd Haynes for Carol’s direction
Mask for Cher’s lead performance
The Godfathers I & II for Gordon Willis’ cinematography
12 Angry Men for Lee J. Cobb’s supporting performance
City of God for Best Foreign Language Film

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203037856

Daisies by Věra Chytilová
Jeanne Dielman, 23 Commerce Quay, 1080 Brussels by Chantal Akerman
The House is Black by Forugh Farrokhzad
Meshes of the Afternoon by Maya Deren
Cleo from 5 to 7 by Agnès Varda
Beau Travail by Claire Denis
Fire by Deepa Mehta
Paris Is Burning by Jennie Livingston
Sweetie by Jane Campion
Salaam Bombay! by Mira Nair
Portrait of Jason by Shirley Clarke
The Apple by Samira Makhmalbaf
Orlando by Sally Potter
Europa Europa by Agnieszka Holland

More recently:
Zama by Lucrecia Martel
Things to Come by Mia Hansen-Løve
Happy as Lazzaro by Alice Rohrwacher
We Need to Talk About Kevin by Lynne Ramsay
Everyone Else by Maren Ade
Pariah by Dee Rees
Selma by Ava DuVernay
Lady Bird by Greta Gerwig
Girlhood by Céline Sciamma
The Bling Ring by Sofia Coppola (don’t @ me)
Suzanne by Katell Quillévéré
Meek’s Cutoff by Kelly Reichardt
Winter’s Bone by Debra Granik
The Oath by Laura Poitras
The Loneliest Planet by Julia Loktev
Can You Ever Forgive Me? by Marielle Heller
The Hurt Locker by Kathryn Bigelow
The Savages by Tamara Jenkins

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203032099

Johansson will be in two BP nominees this year (this and Jojo Rabbit) and the stars haven’t aligned for her this much since 2003, which makes it hard to judge that voters “don’t like her” or something when there hasn’t been this opportune of a moment. I still think Erivo’s ahead of her but if Harriet flops I can certainly see ScarJo as a nice fallback options for voters to crown (so long as she can keep her foot out of her mouth).

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1376 View Predictions]

#1203031612

I’m disappointed cause Johansson looks less baity than Driver. He looks really good. When will Scarlett get her Oscar due?! since this doesn’t seem to be the role either.. Hopefully there’s more beyond these teasers.

Word is that Johansson’s role is much more emotional compared to Driver’s.

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