[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205217991

1. Hit the Road by Panah Panahi
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed by Laura Poitras
3. Happening by Audrey Diwan
4. Saint Omer by Alice Diop
5. Aftersun by Charlotte Wells
6. Decision to Leave by Park Chan-wook
7. Eo by Jerzy Skolimowski
8. The Eternal Daughter by Joanna Hogg
9. TÁR by Todd Field
10. Utama by Alejandro Loayza Grisi

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[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205209812

wrote:

Honey you are the snowflake getting so worked up over us telling the truth your little Non American self is over there raging right now!
Imagine bringing up shooting an elementary school because of you how triggered you are. Pathetic.

I’m an American whose country is going to be much better off when people like me replace weirdo losers like you.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205209799

wrote:

Shoot up ab elementary school? You are beyond trash for saying that. Beyond.

It’s your incel racist types who do it. Take your snowflake tears elsewhere.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205209794

wrote:

Are the foreigners getting upset because we are telling the truth?

Go shoot up an elementary school you absolute loser.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205209786

What kind of white nonsense microaggressions are y’all talking about? Part of the point of EEAAO is how the multitudes of the modern immigrant American experience intersects with the culture. Yeah, no shit it would be different with an all white cast. Whine about it to your incel 4chan boards.

And Roger Friedman and Jordan Ruimy are a bunch of crybaby incels themselves who are constantly rooting for the failures of women-of-color led films like EEAAO and The Woman King. None of their other shithead racist friends like EEAAO either?! I’m shocked!!!

They’re the ones out of touch with the normies (including white ones?) who tend to love it irl.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205207655

Picture:
1. Hit the Road
2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
3. Happening
4. Saint Omer
5. Aftersun
6. Decision to Leave
7. EO
8. Great Freedom
9. TÁR
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Directing: Jerzy Skolimowski, EO

Performance in a Lead Female Role: Tilda Swinton, The Eternal Daughter

Performance in a Lead Male Role: Franz Rogowski, Great Freedom

Performance in a Supporting Female Role: Judy Davis, Nitram

Performance in a Supporting Male Role: Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Adapted Screenplay: Happening by Audrey Diwan & Marcia Romano

Original Screenplay: Hit the Road by Panah Panahi

Cinematography: EO [Michał Dymek]

Costume Design: Corsage [Monika Buttinger]

Makeup and Hairstyling: Crimes of the Future

Production Design: Decision to Leave [Ryu Seong-hee]

Film Editing: Aftersun [Blair McClendon]

Film Music: Bones and All [Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross]

Sound Design: Nope

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[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205197311

A mess. Kerry Condon seems at least safest for a nomination. I think double Women Talking nominations made sense when we thought that film was top 5, and now it seems to be in the 8-12 range, which leads me to think they’re just likelier to cancel each other out than to get one or the other in. But there’s still room for double noms, EEAAO is top 2, and Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu aren’t necessarily competing with the same voters with JLC having her own career narrative and affection from her colleagues while Hsu has the heart of a strong part of the film’s most ardent fans. So that’s top three…

The next two slots are between Angela Bassett, Dolly de Leon, Janelle Monáe, an outside possibility for one of the Women Talking girls, Carey Mulligan, and I never really bought into the Hong Chau talk but she’s technically in the conversation as well.

Rn I have
Bassett – Though with a much weaker film I think she has a similar narrative to JLC in an open field being an opportunity to give her some recognition for her body of work since her last nom 30 years ago.
Condon
Curtis
de Leon – She’s doing as well as she needs to with critics and though I don’t think her movie will make Picture/Director anymore, it still has support and can make Screenplay.
Hsu

I have Glass Onion slightly underperforming all around at the end of the day with the same lone screenplay nod as the first.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205186045

Love to see my current favorite released this year, Hit the Road, hasn’t been forgotten by some critics in these early lists. Dying to see No Bears.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205174020

Blonde was already this year’s Spencer. Cate proved to escape that trap by actually winning the Volpi cup, and having a film that critics loved with a 90+ Metacritic.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205173304

Not sure if this has already been mentioned, but in the last 10 years, when a TIFF People’s Choice winner has featured a Lead Actress nominee, they’ve done pretty well:
2012 – Silver Linings Playbook (Lawrence)
2013 – 12 Years a Slave
2014 – The Imitation Game
2015 – Room (Larson)
2016 – La La Land (Stone)
2017 – 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (McDormand)
2018 – Green Book
2019 – Jojo Rabbit
2020 – Nomadland (McDormand)
2021 – Belfast
2022 – The Fabelmans (Williams)

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205173283

Hoping for a good turnout for some of my all-time faves:
Pather Panchali
Close-Up
Shoah
Daisies
The Spirit of the Beehive

And Jeanne Dielman, also in my top 10, which I’ve heard of a concerted push for.
Of more modern films, I’m rooting for Tropical Malady and In the Mood for Love more than Mulholland Dr or Parasite (no shade).

If #1 isn’t Citizen Kane or Vertigo, I’d love to see it go to Tokyo Story. I guess they’ve invited way more people than ever to submit a list, so there will probably be some dramatic changes but it’s hard to know if that’ll really make the list more diverse and inspired or more populist/consensus.

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[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205173271

nkb325 wrote:

Davis and Streep seemed pretty neck and neck that year, but I think just by virtue of Streep having lost so many times it was just assumed Davis would have the edge. In retrospect we should’ve realized she was closer than in a while.

The way I heard about it also looked like she might pull it off for Doubt. She was the only one who beat Winslet for anything televised that year and with how all over the place Winslet’s campaign was, I’m sure it felt like it could finally be Streep’s year.

I remember watching The Iron Lady and being surprised that she wasn’t considered more of a frontrunner than Davis, I think I probably even predicted Davis by the end just because Davis’s narrative was so compelling, but Meryl just seemed to be operating on like 11/10 (in effort, at least) with REALLY close focus, lots of speeches/monologues, and range between younger/older Thatcher all throughout the film that one couldn’t say for Viola’s character in The Help. And that’s without getting to the Weinstein of it all that season.
It taught me to trust my instinct more for a performance’s flash factor in predicting, I had the same feeling when I watched McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club a few years later before he became an established frontrunner.

I think Doubt was considered possible for Meryl when there was a presumption that they could reward Kate in Supporting for The Reader, and that’s how SAG shook out — but a) Kate was submitted in Supporting for SAG so they couldn’t vote for her there in lead, b) Meryl had never won at SAG for a film role yet given they just started giving awards in the 90s and she hadn’t quite been the frontrunner for a film until then. But at the Oscars, it was clear that lead was the only place they could reward Kate and she was more overdue for a first win than Meryl her third, and voters liked The Reader more than Doubt (not to mention, yet again, the Weinstein of it all).

She wasn’t considered likely to win for either Adaptation or Prada by their respective Oscar nights, but they jumpstarted the momentum and narrative leading up to her Iron Lady win and momentum for Doubt/J&J (plus major work in The Hours and Angels in America).

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[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205164635

These are my guesses at the top 10, in alphabetical order…
Aftersun
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Saint Omer
TÁR
Women Talking

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205164625

I don’t buy that the nominating committee didn’t watch The Whale. It’s not like they can withhold access to it and they obviously recognize a lot of titles that they only know of by going to film festivals like those where The Whale’s been playing.

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[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 741 View Predictions]

#1205124290

Speaking of TÁR, Todd Field was clearly a fan of Nina Hoss’s previous collaborations with Christian Petzold. The very premise of Phoenix is something of a mindfuck where the character of Nelly Lenz is performing a haunted hall-of-mirrors version of herself, and Hoss is absolutely towering as Nelly. For my money the best actress performance of the last decade, at least.

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