[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204963839

CarlosEdu wrote:

These reactions to Leila’s Brothers are strange but it seems that could win some award, even the Palme D’or.

Seems like the Jury is gonna have to go for some films that divide people a bit, given the consistency of the slate so far. But I agree, especially with President Lindon loving the director and Farhadi having worked closely with some of its stars, hard to imagine this one goes empty handed. Probably not the Palme (Grand Prix at best), but maybe Actress or Screenplay.

We’ll see if “Broker” or “Close” can deliver on some pre-premiere buzz, and I’m very curious about “Pacification.” I think “Eo” and “Forever Young” (Les Amandiers) are strong contenders for some kind of prize in addition to “Leila’s Brothers,” with strong chances of some kind of mention for Cronenberg, Dardennes, Mungiu, Park, and Serebrennikov. So no shortage of potential prize possibilities, even for a competition year that seems more slight than usual.

I have a bad feeling “Decision to Leave” could be left out in favor of another Korean-language film in “Broker” and genre-heavier “Crimes of the Future” stealing its thunder.

I could see it breaking down something like:
Palme d’Or – “Close” by Lukas Dhont
Grand Prix – “Eo” by Jerzy Skolimowski
Director – David Cronenberg, “Crimes of the Future”
Jury Prize – “RMN” by Cristian Mungiu // “Tori and Lokita” by Jean-Pierre Dardenne & Luc Dardenne [tie]
Screenplay – “Forever Young” by Valeria Bruni Tedeschi
Actress – Taraneh Alidoosti, “Leila’s Brothers”
Actor – Song Kang-ho, “Broker”

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204963095

Grateful for the ignore button lol. What in the god’s name…

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204961873

01. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once (just by chances for a nomination, she’s first by virtue of being the only real seen/proven candidate so far who’s staked her claim)
02. Margot Robbie, Babylon
03. Cate Blanchett, TAR
04. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (could go Supporting, or the film could be pushed to next year if Marty feels he needs to take more time with post)
05. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

06. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
07. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
08. Helen Mirren, Golda
09. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Regina King, Shirley

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204961574

Setia_Yasmine_Khalil wrote:

Tang Wei also might win best actress she is having great notices

I’d be thrilled for her, but the praise seems more centered on Park’s filmmaking and there’s a LOT of contenders for the Actress prize.
She’ll have to beat out:
Taraneh Alidoosti (Leila’s Brothers)
Zar Amir-Ebrahimi (Holy Spider)
Marion Cotillard (Brother and Sister)**
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Mbundu Joely (Tori and Lokita)
Annabelle Lengronne (Mother and Son)
Alyona Mikhailova (Tchaikovksy’s Wife)
Léa Seydoux (Crimes of the Future)
Nadia Tereszkiewicz (Forever Young)
Michelle Williams (Showing Up)

**Cotillard seemed like a possible frontrunner before Brother and Sister premiered, though it’s been doing better with French critics than everyone else and it’s a French-heavy jury, so she’s still a possibility.

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204960180

Loving all the apparent excellence in Asian actressing in comp this year between Holy Spider’s Ebrahimi, Dolly de Leon in Triangle of Sadness, and the yet to come promise from Tang Wei and Taraneh Alidoosti.

Holy Spider also sounds intriguing. Divisive, and I might even wind up on the hate side, but it’s already come with the kind of exciting reactions and conversation-starter that we used to expect out of Cannes competition.

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204956062

Richie Rich wrote:

Does anyone think Final Cut can be a Best Foreign Language film Oscar contender for France like Day for Night? I can’t seem to make up my mind from these reviews. Help!

Lol no, I don’t think that’s likely. Seems like it could be at least a nice hit for Hazanavicius, though, at least in his home country.

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204951411

Full scheduled outlined below this. Based on certain hunches of the scheduling, at least on paper, I think some of the major stories of this year’s fest could come from Bruni Tedeschi, Cronenberg, Koreeda, Mungiu, Park, Roustayi, and Saleh. On top of that I think the new Serra could be a polarizing discovery that could be a Jury Prize contender, I think there’s a lot of momentum for Reichardt to win a major French festival prize and same with Serebrennikov for a combination of the political atmosphere and his own streak with Cannes selections in such a short time. Of course you can also never count out the Dardennes with a festival jury, and I’m personally always rooting for Claire Denis.

(all times CET)

Wed. 18th:
3:30pm – ZHENA CHAIKOVSKOGO (Tchaïkovski’s Wife) by Kirill SEREBRENNIKOV

10:30pm – LE OTTO MONTAGNE by Charlotte VANDERMEERSCH and Felix VAN GROENINGEN

Thu. 19th:
7:00pm – ARMAGEDDON TIME by James Gray

10:00pm – HI-HAN (Eo) by Jerzy SKOLIMOWSKI

Fri. 20th:
4:00pm – BOY FROM HEAVEN by Tarik SALEH

10:00pm – FRÈRE ET SŒUR by Arnaud DESPLECHIN

Sat. 21st:
6:00pm – TRIANGLE OF SADNESS by Ruben ÖSTLUND

9:30pm – RMN by Cristian MUNGIU

Sun. 22nd:
4:00pm – HOLY SPIDER by Ali ABBASI

7:00pm – LES AMANDIERS by Valeria BRUNI TEDESCHI

Mon. 23rd:
6:00pm – HAEOJIL GYEOLSIM (Decision to Leave) by PARK Chan-Wook

9:30pm – CRIMES OF THE FUTURE (Les crimes du futur) by David CRONENBERG

Tue. 24th:
3:30pm – TORI ET LOKITA (Tori and Lokita) by Jean-Pierre et Luc DARDENNE

10:15pm – NOSTALGIA by Mario MARTONE

Wed. 25th:
3:00pm – LEILA’S BROTHERS by Saeed ROUSTAEE

10:30pm – STARS AT NOON by Claire Denis

Thu. 26th:
3:15pm – TOURMENT SUR LES ILES by Albert Serra

7:00pm – BROKER by KORE-EDA Hirokazu

10:00pm – CLOSE by Lukas DHONT

Fri. 27th:
3:15pm – SHOWING UP by Kelly REICHARDT

6:00pm – UN PETIT FRERE by Leonor SERRAILLE

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204922584

FreemanGriffin wrote:

Is Broker a South Korean movie directed by a Japanese director? I thought for certain he is Japanese?

Yes, Koreeda is Japanese and choosing to make a film set in South Korea this time.

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204876569

The best nominees in each category are the non-English screenplays. Would be an absolute dream if both Drive My Car and Worst Person could somehow pull it out together (but expecting CODA/Belfast).

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204874701

FEFFO wrote:

I gotta say I was sure Penélope would be nominated after her Volpi Cup win, even when she didn’t hit precursors I was sure. After the GG I was convinced Nicole would win, that until her SAG loss. But to be honest I never considered Jessica win competitive, I know I may be wrong (90% sure about it), but I’m standing by my girl P on this one lol

I was also fairly certain of Cruz’s chances for a nomination from the start of the season through all the ups and downs. If she really pulls it out in the end, I’ll take it as huge vindication lol and a sign that the Academy has changed for the better.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204871790

Lock, or Close –
Actor: Will Smith, King Richard (>95%)
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA (>95%)
Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (>95%)
Costume Design: Cruella (>95%)
Visual Effects: Dune (>95%)
Sound: Dune (>95%)

Fairly Certain –
Directing: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (90%)
Score: Dune (90%)
Animated: Encanto (88%)
International: Drive My Car (84%)
Picture: CODA (80%)
Adapted Screenplay: CODA (78%)

Upsets Possible –
Cinematography: Dune (66%)
Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye (60%)
Song: “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (58%)
Film Editing: King Richard (55%)
Original Screenplay: Belfast (50%)

Predicted Upsets –
Documentary: Flee (33%)
Production Design: Nightmare Alley (31%)
Actress: Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (24%)

X

Reply

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204870868

CarlosEdu wrote:

If you’re predicting CODA to win Best Picture, I think that you have to consider Cruz as a possibility to win too, many stats will be break this year so it’s not impossible that she could break along with CODA.

I think it’s been fairly clear that with the long gap between the nominations voting/announcement and the winners, there are a lot of movies that peaked after the nominations process that people caught up with after the fact and will vote accordingly from there in this new phase, so what got what precursors or other nominations feels way less relevant at this point.

BAFTA’s a good example, where they were doing their longlist voting WAY earlier in the season and CODA wasn’t nominated for Best Film nor Cruz even shortlisted in Actress, but enough BAFTA voters caught up with CODA after the fact to give it their Screenplay win over their Film winner and you can argue the same can happen for Cruz (I say “can” because there weren’t as many other opportunities for her to go head-to-head against her competitors in major awards bodies who didn’t see her buzz coming). But Parallel Mothers was released to solid arthouse business after the nominations and good audience ratings in addition to critics calling it peak Almodóvar, a career high for Cruz, and giving her 2/3 of the trifecta critics wins.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204870833

MD wrote:

Respectfully, I don’t think we know what the consensus is just because we follow some circles. In my opinion it’s only fair to look at both sides. And with the film now being the frontrunner even more deaf people are talking about it and we’re being exposed to a wider audience of opinions.

I agree, though I was quoting your post saying “Meanwhile deaf people” — which seemed to imply a consensus among deaf viewers when that’s been the opposite at least of my anecdotal experience hearing about the film from (unrelated) deaf and CODA friends who’ve been supporting it all year. No one should expect them to be a monolith of film tastes or stories concerning their experiences, obviously.

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204870792

MD wrote:

Hearing people gushing over how sweet and heartfelt it is. Meanwhile deaf people:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1505580637448810500&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldderby.com%2Fforum%2Fmovies%2Foscars-2022-predictions-best-picture-and-director-part-34%2F&sessionId=b7df46c7c3a01331edcef8ec8cdbcfc32ed96e99&siteScreenName=GoldDerby&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

I feel like this is more the exception in the deaf community, though. I had heard different voices from the community finding it a breath of fresh air, especially compared to Sound of Metal (which was roundly despised in the deaf circles I follow).

[veronikavoss Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 700 View Predictions]

#1204869577

nresendes10 wrote:

Actually a WGA/SAG/PGA winner has lost Best Picture: Little Miss Sunshine in 2006. So it is not unprecedented what ‘The Power of the Dog” is trying to do. What “CODA” is trying to do, win Best Picture without Best Director or Best Editing nomination is unprecedented.

Little Miss Sunshine is a good comparison for CODA because it also surged in buzz at the last minute and came really close to winning.

Good thing for CODA is that POTD isn’t as strong as The Departed was as an alternative, and Jane’s narrative isn’t quite as compelling as Marty’s overdue status that year. The Departed went in that year with DGA/WGA/ACE, so effectively a frontrunner in 3 of its 5 nominated categories. BAFTA went with The Queen and the Globes went with Babel/Dreamgirls.

Also, it wasn’t a preferential ballot like this year, which almost certainly helps CODA even more.