[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202794714

I’m so happy to be petty and gloat about having faith in Olivia from the start and putting 500 points on her prediction after all the shit I’ve gotten back when she decided to go lead.

First the Gaga stans pretended that there was any appetite to give her both Best Song AND Best Actress.

Then the Glenn stans thought I was just being “biased” for still going with Olivia even if she also had a Globe/BFCA in addition to BAFTA/LAFCA/NSFC and a ton more critics prizes than Glenn was even mentioned at.

Olivia won fair and square because she was easily the best performer in the field. Pressed stans will just have to deal with it eventually. Like, people calling Glenn’s lose “cruel” or a “hate crime?” Like, chill tf out Jussie Smolletts.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202725225

Glenn had a nice win at the Globes. But that’s not enough to really reverberate everywhere else. Gaga probably still wins SAG, though I’d love for Colman to win (which is not impossible — the voters will watch the screeners given all the noms and she’s objectively better than either Close/Gaga).

At least Olivia is a lock for the BAFTA win, though.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202722833

Jesus, that Green Book speech was the worst of the night. Makes Clooney’s Oscar speech sound like I Have a Dream.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202722373

really hope Regina King wins this year. and i think she just might.

however i can totally imagine the possibility of Rachel Weisz winning her second.

as for Amy Adams, i do think that she’s in third place right now, and probably won’t win the Oscar. the nomination itself is her win.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202722176

Amy has plenty of Golden Globes y’all. She lost her categories this year fair and square. Calm tf down.

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202722128

Lmao had some fun looking back at the pressed Regina haters. Bye!!!

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202722099

No.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202720915

Supposedly the first award of the night will be TV Movie/Mini Actress, which could be telling; they so rarely give one actor double wins in a year, so if Amy wins that I think Regina is more likely to win Film Supporting Actress. If Patty wins that first award, then I think Amy has a much better shot for Vice.

Then again, they could just give it to Weisz…

[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202720896

JackO wrote:

Aw only finished in 10th. :/ lol I had the RIder in my predictions last week and then took it out. Oh well.

Lol I always forget to increase bets on some of these. 😐 So I’m fourth but I had the same percentage right as the top 2 who remembered.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202720069

Gabriel Guarin wrote:

The movie premiered at TIFF in September. People saw it before its December 14 wide release. It’s only been 6 years since the last time someone won an acting Oscar without a SAG nomination. It took 12 years for that to happen and that was only the 2nd case. Oscars want their buildup awards to be relevant, so they may go with someone who was nominated at SAG.

Most people aren’t able to go to these film festivals and see these films separately, the nominating committee is all over the country. So yes, it does make a big difference when screeners are sent to them.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202719839

FreemanGriffin wrote:

But The Rider isn’t even anywhere close to being the best American movie of the year. It was also released in 2017; it got a Best Film and Best Director nomination from the Independent Spirit awards last year. (I know: release dates vary, but I still have a point) I was very disappointed when I saw it, it was so dull ):

I was talking about Inside Llewyn Davis — I don’t always agree with their picks either, but I quite like The Rider and think it’s a nice choice that gives a small gem some exposure.

And it’s definitely a 2018-eligible release. The Spirit Awards go by festival premieres, but no one was able to buy a ticket in a multiplex in the states in 2017.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202719820

Jazzy wrote:

Those ridiculous idiots and their highbrow taste. It reminds me of the year they chose Inside Lewyn Davis as best film even though that film didn’t factor into any of the major races in awards season.

But it was the best American film of its year, anyways, which is what they’re more concerned with rewarding.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202719775

FreemanGriffin wrote:

haven’t seen The Death of Stalin – anybody else seen it? I wonder if the writers branch will nominate it for an Oscar.

It’s great (you can rent it online). From the creators of Veep, who previously got a surprise Oscar nomination for In the Loop. Death of Stalin is naturally less silly than their previous work but the writing just as dense and hilarious to revisit. Should be remembered more.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202719728

FreemanGriffin wrote:

I wish I hadn’t missed Burning ): Did Steven Yeun ever make it into the predictions center?

Yes, finally. You can see in this thread I’d been asking for it since November lol.

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[manakamanaParticipant Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 18 Posts: 1356 View Predictions]

#1202719117

People thinking Blunt will beat Colman at HFPA or especially BAFTA have no idea how renowned and beloved Olivia is overseas.

Voters seeing Blunt in Poppins…like her, but she’s not this smash cultural sensation…