[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203975520

MysticMagix wrote:

Here for denzel to steal the 5th slot hahaa

Or John David.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203973649

Of this list, I would love for Talia Ryder who helped anchor NRSA with Flanigan, but didn’t get any of the major critics credit for it, so it might be hard for her to break through unless they discover the film from its critics wins and are obsessed with it. I still maintain it’s not so grueling or controversial that it can’t find enough votes for nominations, but only in the categories that critics pushed it for.

Fishback only happens if Judas really catches on, and as a late release maybe she can benefit from that momentum but I’m getting Carmen Ejogo in Selma vibes at best.

I don’t think NOTW is an acting contender, or a contender beyond techs personally, but if Zengel starts getting main precursor nominations and it turns out to be a bigger hit than I suspect, I don’t think she would be a MdT-style surprise on nominations morning.

Chopra has an outside shot at a Globes nomination, lol.

Olivia Cooke isn’t inconceivable if Sound of Metal really slays with voters, which I think it can. It seems to have a rooting underdog factor and generally playing pretty well with audiences. But with that performance? You could certainly nominate worse, but it’s quite limited (by design, not her fault).

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[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203973646

I’m not so certain that Mikkelsen would be a frontrunner to win. I don’t think he had as strong of a narrative as Huppert had in her year (she also had several strong film festival movies that year). And it could be a way for them to reward Leslie Odom, Jr. for Hamilton so that they can give Supporting to someone else; SBC seems likelier there since they already rewarded his Borat performance (and Bakalova could win as the film’s prize) — or even Chadwick if they want to reward Hopkins.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203973642

Marcus.H wrote:

Yes, I know the buzz and PYW is actually #4 in my original screenplay prediction rn. However, the buzz is from several critic awards and it’s just a push for “being nominated.” That said, “placing PYW at Best Picture top 5” seems really unrealistic since we don’t even know if this kind of revenge comedy/thriller film can be nominated for BP.

I just went check every past BP nominee again and PYW just doesn’t seem like something Academy will love that much. Screenplay and Actress are fine, but BP and BD…. let’s see.

LAFCA has a pretty uncanny record in the Screenplay category, even for movies that wouldn’t normally be seen as super safe contenders like American Splendor, The Savages, A Separation, The Lobster, etc. Some of the few times a film they rewarded went without nominations seem surprising in retrospect (stuff like Nashville and About Schmidt).

This could be one of the few exceptions, but this win is a pretty big deal for a screenplay’s nomination chances especially if it’s not already among the frontrunners.

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[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203973622

Jasmine is French wrote:

Am I the only one who is already bored with the awards? Too predictable for my taste. Fingers crossed for the GG to shake things up

I think we’ve seen pretty much everything we will from the critics, at least the most important ones. Maybe some late stretch nominations can still help those like Kirby, Colman, Yeun (though he’s actually been doing ok), or Zendaya, but the critics announced have pretty much already shaped the contours of the race to the extent it was ever going to and well before many AMPAS voters even watch these films for themselves. I’m not sure if that means these critics awards will have less influence than in most years or weirdly have more since a lot of voters don’t have the usual campaign season of the past to help guide and inform their ballots.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203973533

I agree that Gabby well could’ve been given the increase in Precious’ momentum — not just the shocking screenplay win (though I think Reitman also rubbed people a bit the wrong way that year with the screenplay credit question), but nominations like Director and Editing were at least far from safe bets for Precious and I remember plenty being surprised it pulled off quite all of that.

Gabby was also just such a luminous presence that season and a breath of fresh air. I feel like by the time Carey lost the Globe/BFCA she had lost a lot of the early buzz she had started out of Sundance, and her film didn’t get as many nominations as had been considered a contender for earlier that season.

Something about Julie & Julia doesn’t quite strike me as the right role for Meryl to win, but if I’m guessing Gabby was second I don’t think Meryl would’ve been far off. But as a comedy it’s not quite as iconic as The Devil Wears Prada, and obviously it doesn’t have the kind of meat and bait a more dramatic character like Thatcher offers. She also had to split so much screentime with Adams.

Helen was just happy to be nominated and I was, too! She had such a fiery energy as Countess Sophia that was a hoot to watch.

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[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203964848

Atypical wrote:

BUMP for NSFC predictions

Film:
1. First Cow
2. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
3. Lovers Rock/Small Axe

Director:
1. Steve McQueen
2. Chloé Zhao
3. Kelly Reichardt

Screenplay:
1. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
2. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
3. First Cow

Actor:
1. Chadwick Boseman
2. Delroy Lindo
3. Luca Marinelli

Best Actress
1. Sidney Flanigan
2. Carey Mulligan
3. Frances McDormand

Supporting Actor
1. Glynn Turman
2. Paul Raci
3. Brian Dennehy

Supporting Actress:
1. Youn Yuh-jung
2. Maria Bakalova
3. Sônia Braga

Foreign-Language:
1. Martin Eden
2. Bacurau
3. Beanpole

Nonfiction:
1. Time
2. Collective
3. City Hall

Cinematography:
1. Lovers Rock/Small Axe
2. Nomadland
3. First Cow

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963922

wolfali wrote:

Links?

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2020/12/08/amanpour-sophia-loren-edoardo-ponti-film-the-life-ahead.cnn

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-chatter-podcast-sophia-loren-the-life-ahead

https://nypost.com/2020/12/08/at-86-sophia-loren-feels-20-shares-six-key-life-lessons/

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sophia-loren-on-the-life-ahead-and-the-men-from-her-past-from-cary-grant-to-marlon-brando-h3pqffjq9

https://www.instyle.com/celebrity/sophia-loren-returns-the-life-ahead

https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/sophia-loren-86-feels-like-23224184

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-9027229/I-feel-20-Sophia-Loren-says-doesnt-believe-shes-86.html

https://deadline.com/2021/01/the-trial-of-the-chicago-7-best-picture-capri-hollywood-loren-hopkins-1234664432/

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963893

wolfali wrote:

Well Kirby is definitely campaigning. There’s no denying that.

I’m a Kirby fan but it’s ironic how people keep going on about Viola’s “thirst” for awards when she’s campaigning just as much as Van and Carey are.

The only ones I have’t seen campaigning (as in talk shows) are Loren and McDormand (the latter of whom refuses to campaign). Even Adams campaigned.

Loren did a ton of press earlier last month.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963709

Marco11 wrote:

Out of curiosity, why are some of you still pretty confident in Sophia Loren’s chances at this awards season, while there doesn’t seem to be much (or perhaps any) buzz in her favour, nor in her film’s? Not even critics are recognizing her.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m actually absolutely biased and find her to be an infinitely superior actress to Davis, McDormand, Kirby, Mulligan (and so on) – and therefore expect to find her performance to be better than at least some of the favourites. But I just find my wishful thinking pretty unlikely to happen.

I personally think she’s a Globes-only play, but one hell of a strong Globes play given the competition this year and how they split lead, and how much she’s making it apparent that she wants it.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963669

Ashton_Reeves wrote:

Tina fey as 22 has a better chance of getting a globe nomination then Sidney Flanigan.

Again, literally no one was talking about Sidney Flanigan’s Golden Globe chances.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963648

wolfali wrote:

Did I say it would?

Added an edit.

manakamana wrote:

POAW likely won’t get anything else outside of Burstyn, and is not a bigger BP contender than First Man was at the time.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963629

wolfali wrote:

Except it got almost shut out at the Globes outside of her performance and score. I do’t think Foy would have gotten in at the Globes had she just won the Emmy for The Crown.

POAW likely won’t get anything else outside of Burstyn, and is not a bigger BP contender than First Man was at the time.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963619

wolfali wrote:

Claire Foy in First Man says hi.

First Man was a contender.

[manakamana Joined: Jul 28th, 2011 Topics: 19 Posts: 1495 View Predictions]

#1203963594

wolfali wrote:

People overestimate how much the HFPA care about veterans in the lead categories. For every Glenn Close winning over Lady Gaga you have a Lily Collins getting nominated over Kate Beckinsale.

The Life Ahead will also be a Foreign Language Film nominee. What is the evidence that anyone gives a damn about Pieces of a Woman?