[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203212610

Brayden Fitzsimmons wrote:

He’s also British and in the C/M category for an actual singing performance. It’s like HFPA catnip.

But there’s already another person that fits that profile: Taron Egerton.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203196771

John Berchmans wrote:

When was the last time a foreign film was nominated for score? I think it’s been an EXTREMELY long time. Which is why I’m not predicting Parasite in this category.

The last time was Pan’s Labyrinth so it wasn’t THAT long ago.

My current predictions for Score:

Ford v. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
1917

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203192238

It is getting in for many technical categories.

“Three” (VFX, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) is not “many”.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203189430

Of course this could all radically change when the precursors start, but I’m 80% sure the Best Picture lineup will look like this:

Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
Parasite

With the following films with a chance to either get enough votes for the 9th and 10th spot or supplant any film listed above should it falter: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Bombshell, The Farewell, Harriet, Joker, Pain & Glory, Queen & Slim, Rocketman, The Two Popes.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203189330

MMartin wrote:

Because this is a highly competitive year and 8 nominees is not a lot in a highly competive year, lets say The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Two Popes all make it in, that leaves the last 5 spots divided between:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, Joker, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Bombshell, Pain & Glory, and more longshot nomination possibilities with Rocketman, Queen & Slim, Endgame, and Richard Jewell.

Frankly to me at this point, the first 7 films I listed all feel more likely to me than The Two Popes because of Netflix. But who knows, The Two Popes does look like the very standard safe biopic (Darkest Hour, Hidden Figures, The Theory of Everything, Ray) that the Academy loves to nominate. But all of those movies had successful box office runs, which The Two Popes will not have. And it will also be suffering do to Netflix running bigger campaigns for Marriage Story and The Irishman. All of A24’s Best Picture energy is going to be on The Farewell on the other hand. While Warner Bros. is going to be pushing Joker like wild.

Do you live in an alternate universe where Parasite isn’t even a thing?

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203186136

I think “Lost in the Woods” > “Into the Unknown”.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203169322

JGibson wrote:

Roma was an even bigger contender and they ignored it so I wouldn’t bet on Parasite.

Roma isn’t really an “ensemble” film or an actor-driven film though. Parasite lives and dies by its ensemble acting.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203168060

John Berchmans wrote:

Is Weathering With You not a contender here? How rare is it to have animated films in this category?

The only one to ever get nominated was Waltz with Bashir. My Life as a Zucchini made it to the Top 9 finals but didn’t get nominated. It made it to Animated Feature that year though. It would have been the first make it to both categories if it did.

IIRC, Persepolis was also considered a strong contender but didn’t make the cut in Foreign Film (but got nominated in Animated Feature).

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203168001

If Parasite manages to get a SAG Ensemble nomination, I think its bid for a Best Picture win strengthens considerably.

TRIVIA: The only non-English language film to ever get a SAG Ensemble Cast for a Motion Picture nomination is Life is Beautiful.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203160084

They also almost never fail to give something to a Clint Eastwood film. Expect Richard Jewell to win something.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203158627

Max Von Sydow and Liv Ullman.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203156997

John Berchmans wrote:

No Palme D’Or winner has ever won Picture at the oscars.

One did: Marty.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203155583

Pulp wrote:

Moonlight wasn’t divisive? It’s exactly the type of film that would win on a preferential ballot. Without the preferential ballot it almost certainly would have lost.

This is exactly why I think Parasite could prevail: The preferential ballot. As I said, a wide swath of people with varying film tastes are declaring it a masterpiece/the best film of year. Unless there’s an actual concerted effort to actually prevent this from winning, I don’t see a lot of ballots ranking this film below the Top 3.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203155493

Pulp wrote:

I agree with Stegeo. If Roma couldn’t beat Green Book of all films I don’t see how Parasite would beat much less divisive films like Marriage Story or The Irishman. I also have absolutely no faith in Neon.

Roma is artsy. Brilliant film but I can see how some people will not connect with it. Parasite is something else though. It’s connecting with a wide swath of people who are declaring it the best of the year or one of the best of the year. It’s quite accessible….and also doesn’t have the Netflix controversy that handicapped Roma.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 80 View Predictions]

#1203155467

I think everyone is underestimating Parasite‘s chance to win Best Picture. No other film has gotten such an across the board acclaim across many, many demographics from people with diverse tastes. Practically everyone I know *LOVES* it. I don’t remember this happening on any other film, even critically acclaimed ones. There’s always two or three naysayers who say, “Eh, it wasn’t THAT good” or “I *hated* it.”

I think most voters will have it on top or near the top of their ballots.