[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203296041

Lil Tony wrote:

The question is Why didn’t Pan’s Labyrinth win best foreign language film despite winning in three other categories?

That was during a time when there’s a rule that only Academy members who have seen ALL the Foreign Film candidates in special, designated screenings can vote in the category. This rule has resulted in quite a number of upsets in this category. And again, a lot the members who have time to do this are usually old and white so they have a largely specific taste.

Apart from Pan’s Labyrinth, there’s Amelie which despite being nominated in multiple categories including Best Screenplay still lost to No Man’s Land in Foreign Language. Pretty sure both of these would’ve made it to Best Picture if they had the expanded slate in their respective years.

• This reply was modified 1 day, 18 hours ago by  Irvin Malcolm Contreras.
• This reply was modified 1 day, 18 hours ago by  Irvin Malcolm Contreras.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203291287

sofan wrote:

Since it is for fun, let’s go for it.

The rich family
Jake Gyllenhaal – The Husband
Michelle Dockery – The Wife
Thomasin McKenzie – The Daughter
Archie Yates – The Son

The poor family
Willem Dafoe – The Husband
Laurie Metcalf – The Wife
Elle Fanning – The Daughter
Patrick Schwarzenegger – The Son

Annette Bening – Former Housemaid
Bill Camp – Former Housemaid’s Husband

I think if you HAVE to remake Parasite in America, race and racism should be layered into the story to justify the remake. One of these families should be cast with people of color.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203285216

Meryl Streep.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203273101

For those trying to predict this, out of nowhere surprise nominees are nominees little to no precursor support that pop up in the nominations list. They come in three forms that sometimes overlap:

1. COATTAIL NOMINEES – These are nominees from a Best Picture or a Best Acting front-runner that were brought along for the ride. These nominees make sense since voters were already watching the films and they voted them in.

Past examples: Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street).

Possibilities this year: Song Kang-ho and Cho Yeo-jeong (Parasite), Anna Paquin (The Irishman), Thomasin McKenzie (Jojo Rabbit).

2. THE RESPECTED VETERAN – Voters sometimes vote for who they know and who they already like. “Oooh! So-and-so is great in this! I love him/her.”

Past examples: Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah), Laura Dern (Wild).

Possibilities this year: Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Alan Alda (Marriage Story), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

3. THE LATE BREAKERS – Nominees from films that were on the hunt for a couple of nominations and are on the bubble but when nominations came out, the Academy liked the films more than expected bringing in some surprise nominations along the way.

Past examples: “City of God”‘s nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) and Benh Zeitlin for Director.

Possibilities this year: Nominations in various categories for “Uncut Gems”, “The Farewell”, “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203267476

Cynthia Erivo is British so her missing BAFTA isn’t a good sign for her Oscar nom.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203254565

John Mulaney and the Sack Lunch Bunch is one of the best, more awesome things on Netflix right now. If you haven’t seen it, you’re missing out. It definitely deserves all the Emmys: Pre-Taped Variety Special, Directing, Writing, at least two nominations in the Original Music & Lyrics category, Choreography and, I’m not kidding, Supporting Actor in a Miniseries/Movie for Jake Gyllenhaal. I’m not 100% sure if he’s in it enough to qualify since he appears for like maybe 6 or 7 minutes but he is friggin’ hilarious. He would be a deserving nominee.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203239311

I’ve seen 15 of the entries (17 if you count the two films that were disqualified). The ones who will getting my top five vote would be:

1. South Korea
2. Brazil
3. Spain
4. Russia
5. Japan

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203239181

My list:

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
CAROL
PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE
MOONLIGHT
THE HANDMAIDEN
A FANTASTIC WOMAN
THE FAVOURITE
THE DUKE OF BURGUNDY
STRANGER BY THE LAKE
BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR

• This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Irvin Malcolm Contreras.
• This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  Irvin Malcolm Contreras.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203238289

The first ever Oscar nominated performance directed by a woman happened way back in 1930 when Ruth Chatterton got a Best Actress nomination for a film called Sarah and Son directed by Dorothy Arzner.

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203212610

Brayden Fitzsimmons wrote:

He’s also British and in the C/M category for an actual singing performance. It’s like HFPA catnip.

But there’s already another person that fits that profile: Taron Egerton.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203196771

John Berchmans wrote:

When was the last time a foreign film was nominated for score? I think it’s been an EXTREMELY long time. Which is why I’m not predicting Parasite in this category.

The last time was Pan’s Labyrinth so it wasn’t THAT long ago.

My current predictions for Score:

Ford v. Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
1917

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[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203192238

It is getting in for many technical categories.

“Three” (VFX, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) is not “many”.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203189430

Of course this could all radically change when the precursors start, but I’m 80% sure the Best Picture lineup will look like this:

Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood
Parasite

With the following films with a chance to either get enough votes for the 9th and 10th spot or supplant any film listed above should it falter: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Bombshell, The Farewell, Harriet, Joker, Pain & Glory, Queen & Slim, Rocketman, The Two Popes.

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203189330

MMartin wrote:

Because this is a highly competitive year and 8 nominees is not a lot in a highly competive year, lets say The Irishman, Marriage Story, and Two Popes all make it in, that leaves the last 5 spots divided between:

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, Joker, The Farewell, Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, Bombshell, Pain & Glory, and more longshot nomination possibilities with Rocketman, Queen & Slim, Endgame, and Richard Jewell.

Frankly to me at this point, the first 7 films I listed all feel more likely to me than The Two Popes because of Netflix. But who knows, The Two Popes does look like the very standard safe biopic (Darkest Hour, Hidden Figures, The Theory of Everything, Ray) that the Academy loves to nominate. But all of those movies had successful box office runs, which The Two Popes will not have. And it will also be suffering do to Netflix running bigger campaigns for Marriage Story and The Irishman. All of A24’s Best Picture energy is going to be on The Farewell on the other hand. While Warner Bros. is going to be pushing Joker like wild.

Do you live in an alternate universe where Parasite isn’t even a thing?

[Irvin Malcolm ContrerasParticipant Joined: Nov 25th, 2011 Topics: 1 Posts: 89 View Predictions]

#1203186136

I think “Lost in the Woods” > “Into the Unknown”.