Jason Travis
Columbia College Chicago film graduate and published Chicago Tribune journalist who has a passion for the Oscars and bigger passions for connecting with other fanatics. One day you WILL see me on the Red Carpet talking to the stars about their Oscar chances. Oh yes, it Will Happen!
Members Since
May 20, 2011
Last Login
Mar 28, 2022
Game Points
544304
Quiz Points
0
Total Points
544304
Forum Replies Created
-
-
March 27, 2022 at 10:59 am #1204879213
Jason! Embrace your “bonkerness”.
LOL!! I sure am ! And I just switched to Cruz for actress. My ballot might be the Titanic right now haha!
But I have another contest I enter and I have all my alternate choices there.
I think Dune could still win Sound but those musical stats – WSS seems a sure thing.
I will not give up on Nightmare Alley.
And I def see an upset in the score category, even though I have Hans Zimmer. Again IS Dune’s score the best, or is this a career award? Voters don’t give career awards out anymore as we’ve seen recently.
ReplyFollow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
March 27, 2022 at 10:36 am #1204879162I don’t see Dune sweeping the techs at all, but I could be bonkers.
However the categories I see it losing in-
Production Design–
Nightmare Alley IS ABOUT the sets and atmosphere. It managed a best picture nomination in a tight field, and then only managed cinematography, costumes and pro design. That, to me, says the academy deems it an artistic project that also elevates in it’s film noir sector. Don’t rule it out yet. Dune seems like a lazy choice.
Cinematography
Again, I hear more praise for Power of the Dog then Dune here. I haven’t really heard anyone speak of the amazing shots in Dune vs. POTD. The latter film is poetic in it’s framework, and this comes from someone who did not like the film as much as most.
Sound
I’m going out on a limb and predicting West Side Story. Sasha Stone and Tom O’Neil I believe, recently changed their predictions here as well. 2000s-+ Musicals- or films about the genre- have done well in this category (Bohemian Rhapsody, Whiplash, Sound of Metal, Les Mis, Dreamgirls, Chicago). Only La La Land as of recent lost to Hacksaw Ridge, but the academy often goes for war flicks here and there aren’t any this year. Even the original West Side Story won Best Sound. Dune is the safe choice, but if you want to win your pool, you have to take dives.
Film Editing
It’s Dune or King Richard. Hard to say. I’m going wit the latter, but they often do go with the more tech friendly movies. In another contest I have Dune. Flip a coin.
I have Dune winning Original Score (Hans Zimmer keeps losing though; he hasn’t won since 1995 for the Lion King. Is his score more memorable then POTD or Encanto? Or are we name checking again?) I also have it easily winning Visual Effects.
Again just a way to think outside the box. Dune easily can win 5-6 tonight but I feel voters will spread the wealth.
ReplyFollow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
March 16, 2022 at 11:36 am #1204854045What does Colman losing for The Father have to do with her chances for The Lost Daughter?
Because many keep saying “Colman will win because she’s known for upsets.” So why didn’t she win last year?
Also not having a televised speech means nothing. Sylvester Stallone got a standing ovation after his Globe speech, and lost the Oscar. Anthony Hopkins wasn’t winning anything televised until the BAFTA awards, and I believe he was absent (not sure thought).
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
March 16, 2022 at 11:28 am #1204854003Olivia Colman just won an Emmy for a performance that had zero buzz and for which she was 4th in the predictions centre for and was probably the runner up in last year’s supporting actress race. She’s not the type of performer who needs vast amounts of individual buzz to triumph in awards races.
I’m not predicting her to win (I have her in 3rd behind Chastain and Cruz) but her film is the most widely seen in this category and she gives a critically acclaimed performance that had enough passion to even make the cut at SAG. If this race ends up being more evenly split than we think (which it definitely can seeing how much the AMPAS differed from BAFTA and SAG in nominations this year) then I don’t think it’s impossible for her to upset.
I love Colman, but I think many just want to see her upset for the sake of a great speech. She didn’t win for The Father last year (which won Best Actor AND Adaptation)- and it was a best pic nominee. How is she going to win for an unlikable, albeit memorable, character this time? For a movie that is not the most watched. Being the Ricardos is much more talked about, even if it’s divisive. Amazon is campaigning heavily.
I know Kidman is still vulnerable, but many people just wrote her off from first place to 4th or 5th. That’s not how it works. Kidman still won the Drama Globe, and that’s still a strong precursor. I think many just have a love/hate with Kidman the actress, because had Colman or Stewart won the Globe- they would easily be coming in second for predictions.
I still say Jessica Chastain in our winner, but do not be surprised if Kidman or Stewart prevail. I think Cruz and Colman are comfortable fillers right now.
PS- Colman DID upset at the Emmys, but the Emmys are known for out of nowhere triumphs. It took The Sopranos till season 5 to win Drama Series, and even legend Lucille Ball herself couldn’t win Best Actress for I Love Lucy the first season when she was widely predicted.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
March 14, 2022 at 11:50 am #1204849978I was one of the crazies that picked Green Book over Roma and got it right. Doesn’t mean I am right here, but my gut is telling me CODA could win all three of it’s Oscars. Quite normal now to win Best Film, Supporting Actor and Screenplay (the exact Oscars Green Book took actually). And Roma won Director and Cinematography, something Power of the Dog is poised to win- the latter possibly going to Dune if there’s a rubber stamp effect.
SPOILER — I personally hated Power of the Dog. I felt it was contrived and glossy, though the music is outstanding. And Benedict is exceptional, as is Jesse Plemmons. But Dunst was horrible (and she’s a good actress). I felt her mannerisms were very staged and HATED her hair style. HATED IT. As for Kodi- a typical gay male stereotype. They even put tons of unnecessary makeup on him, which I found strange would be around in 1925- in that part of the USA. The “twist” ending was predictable from the opening credits.
I hope Campion meant for these characters to be more spelled out, because Benedict aside- they all seemed generic. I did like the first half more, with some suspenseful moments that then lead nowhere. However, friends and strangers I talk to only recognize Power of the Dog. They have seen it, and most like it (IMDB has it at 6.9 though, and IMO it should be lower). No one I have spoken to has seen CODA, and it’s on Apple TV. Even last year, Nomandland was the only best pic nominee the general public had seen- despite others being available for streaming. Normally a best picture winner by now has been seen by popcorn audiences. And Green Book, unlike Roma, was recognized as well by random people I talked to. It may be a silly theory, but it works for me.
So I have Power of the Dog tentatively winning best pic, but if PGA sways to CODA, I switch my prediction.
Keep in mind Best Picture recently has been going to AGENDA PUSHING stories. CODA seems much more safe there then. If the best thing people can say about POTD is “Brokeback Mountain 2”, yikes.
I also think Belfast has an outside shot, and Kenneth has been doing heavy interviews and there’s a lot of passion for him. Have mainstream audiences seen it is the question.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 7:19 pm #1204804329The fact that he missed Globe and SAG which favors veterans shows his Oscar nomination is a namecheck to get the returning Oscar winner slot. 2 years ago, the entire lineup were precious Oscar winners except for Brad Pitt.
That could explain Judi Dench’s inclusion in the supporting actress race.
I remember you- Michelle Williams is a lucky woman!
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 7:17 pm #1204804327Hunny Jason, Kidman will win the SAG as I’ve said here dozens of times. But I wouldn’t be surprised at a GaGa or Jessica CHASTAIN upset.
Hey WIG ! I thought about you and smiled when Chastain got her nomination. And my best friend recently watched Eyes of Tammy Faye and loved it. He’s not like us with our Oscar Obsession, so it was nice to hear his take. I think Chastain has a VERY good shot at an upset, and with the Oscars not happening until end of March- voters will have more time to screen the stories.
Anyone who has not seen Eyes of Tammy Faye should watch it. Chastain will have you convinced in the first 30 seconds.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 7:14 pm #1204804320Buckley was still not predicted to get in.
Neither was JK Simmons.
Your argument about Colman getting 3 nominations so fast vs Kidman only having 5 is somewhat understandable, but doesn’t have anything to do with this year’s race. As I mentioned earlier this year, Kidman should have been nominated for many more projects than she got credit for, but nonetheless she seems to have the buzz right now for a second Oscar. After Gaga’s snub, however, anything is possible. And I still think ANY of the ladies could take this.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 7:10 pm #1204804310Huh? Why are you talking about Drive My Car when I said BTR competed in Original Screenplay and missed to a foreign non BP contender which is The Worst Person in the World.
Oh you were talking about THAT foreign film. I still disagree. Again Aaron Sorkin misses in this category a lot. And The Worst Person in the World is a great screenplay.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 7:05 pm #1204804301Sure, but S. Actor was historically weak this year. A past winner getting in for a film that was a presumed BP nominee wasn’t that shocking, whereas Buckley only had a BAFTA nomination, and had no prior Oscar nomination.
You’re rationalizing now lol. Jessie Buckley STILL got a BAFTA nomination and Simmons did not. If JK Simmons was not up for an Oscar, you would have claimed he never had a shot.
We can agree to disagree. So good luck with your Colman choice. I will stick with Kidman. SAG might show us something different, but I have a feeling Colman (and Kidman) fans will hold onto their picks regardless of who takes that prize.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 7:03 pm #1204804297BTR missing to a non BP foreign film contender shows support for the film is really weak.
Drive My Car is an excellent film. Just because an American film loses a best pic nomination to a foreign film doesn’t make it a weak candidate. And Parasite won best pic recently over American candidates. This is best actress, not best film. And The Lost Daughter is for many, a hard sit. It’s slow, and the character bitter and unlikable. Everyone saying “but it got a screenplay nod” forgets that TLD was already predicted by most to make it there.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 6:57 pm #1204804287I think the JK/Javier nominations just speak towards them being liked/respected as opposed to support for BTR. BTR is one of the weaker Oscar bait films for me this year and don’t really get the love. I think Javier also got in to honor Desi Arnaz.
Agreed on Bardem, however JK Simmons didn’t get a Globe/SAG or BAFTA nomination. So his surprise inclusion tells me there is strong support for the film from the actors branch.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 6:54 pm #1204804279My only other question then is why didn’t people predict Colman to win for The Father last year? In a best pic nominee that won two Oscars (actor, screenplay). If she’s the Queen of Upsets, she seemed absent from that mindset in 2020/21. I am glad Grandma won for Minari however.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 6:52 pm #1204804273Olivia Colman is a likable well respected actress who is hot off an Emmy win, Netflix’s biggest priority in Best Actress, and The Lost Daughter over performed. I’m not saying there aren’t other possibilities, but predicting Colman is not a baseless prediction. Being the Ricardos missing OS is a red flag also.
The screenplay miss was upsetting, however Aaron Sorkin missed one for Steve Jobs after WINNING the Globe, so the academy seems to have a hot/cold relationship with him. And personally I found the script for Being the Ricardos subpar. The performances were strong.
I would say Javier Bardem’s nomination (and JK Simmons) show support though, and especially the former giving a weaker performance then DiCaprio and arguably the entire best actor lineup.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
February 15, 2022 at 6:38 pm #1204804261Many Goldderby users predict both the Oscars (in which Colman recently had an unexpected win) and the Emmys (in which Colman just had an even more unexpected win) so she’s become the poster child of the unexpected win. People don’t want to be thrown off again. TLD getting into both adapted screenplay and supporting actress helps too.
That makes sense. Thanks for giving me some insight.
Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
17K Subscribers, 33 Million ViewsFYC: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story/Drive My Car for Best Picture
Why are you reporting this post? (optional):Not now
