[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203341233

So happy for Parasite and Bong Joon-ho. Wow, what a night! I was hoping for a big upset, and best director was it. I didn’t get picture and director, but still managed 19/24. Not bad. I am kicking myself for flip flopping best picture back and forth all season. But I never thought to replace Sam Mendes. Parasite is my favorite film of the past decade to win the top award. I can watch it multiple times and still discover new and insightful things about it. I would even have applauded a Best Production Design win for that house alone.

I am disappointed that Thomas Newman lost for the 15th time. I think his score for 1917 was better than Joker, and I know many may disagree. But what is done is done. I am grateful 1917 still took prizes home for cinematography, sound and visual effects. I saw it in theaters in Dolby Digital, and it was quite the emotional experience.

Congrats to everyone this year on their predictions and I hope everyone had fun viewing parties (whether by yourself or with others). I had some friends over and we had Chicago Deep Dish pizza and wine. It was perfect!

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203336146

What I want the most:
Parasite to win Best Picture
An upset in one of the acting races
Thomas Newman to win for 1917
In the Absence to win Documentary Short
Some dynamite speeches

FINAL PREDICTIONS – GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!

BEST PICTURE: 1917
BEST DIRECTOR: Sam Mendes, 1917
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
BEST ACTRESS: Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Jojo Rabbit
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Parasite
CINEMATOGRAPHY: 1917
PRODUCTION DESIGN: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
COSTUME DESIGN: Little Women
FILM EDITING: Ford v Ferrari
SOUND MIXING: Ford v Ferrari
SOUND EDITING: 1917
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Lion King
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Bombshell
SCORE: Joker
SONG: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”, Rocketman
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: Parasite
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: American Factory
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 4
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: Hair Love
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Neighbors’ Window

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203334654

I would prefer Best Picture to go back to 5. I think adding additional nominees (like the Emmys and Grammys now do) cheapens the merit of the nomination. Call me old school.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203333569

Oh what an experience we have in store for us! DON’T fasten your seatbelts, and enjoy the bumpy night.

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[Jason Travis]

#1203333560

Has anyone seen In the Absence?

Description (from Academy’s website): When the MV Sewol ferry sank off the coast of South Korea in 2014, over three hundred people lost their lives, most of them schoolchildren. Years later, the victims’ families and survivors are still demanding justice from national authorities.

I remember reading about this when it happened and being utterly devastated by it. Everyone has Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (including myself), but I am tempted to switch to In the Absence simply because it seems more voters would be able to warm up to it’s enticing story – and tragedy that is still be investigated.

Also I know this isn’t part of the shorts, but Sasha recently switched to Honeyland in Documentary, as did a few others in the Top 24. I originally had American Factory for the Obama angle, but it’s just their production company. For Sama won the BAFTA over American Factory and seems to have the more powerful story. Honeyland, too, seems more personal. It also helps the latter is nominated for Foreign Language Film- perhaps more broad support? Anyone have insights?

• This reply was modified 11 months, 2 weeks ago by Jason Travis.
• This reply was modified 11 months, 2 weeks ago by Jason Travis.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203330601

The thing is that everyone thinks Dern isn’t deserving so why the heck they keep voting for her?

I think the media selects off the wall ballots from voters to “shake things up” that aren’t really shaken. We all know Laura Dern will win, so find a voter that’s picking someone else. Notice she isn’t even picking Sam Mendes for director.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203330595

I think Kathy Bates was really good in Richard Jewell, and the film was a pleasant surprise. Bates at first comes off sort of hidden, as a typical Georgia momma. But she’s not cynical or vulgar like some of her recent comic roles. She’s reserved, loves her son, and has a big heartbreaking moment on a microphone that I found profoundly moving, and not forced. I wish she could be winning this year in supporting. I love Laura Dern, but she’s too brief in Marriage Story. I would have preferred more of her and less of Driver and Johansson.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203330591

While she made many vulgar points, some stemming on pure laziness, I have to agree with her about Little Women. It’s just not that good. I didn’t have a problem with the actors not being American. I had a problem with the way they played their roles. They rushed through their lines, and the direction was sloppy and erratic. Only Ronan had any heart. I heard SO MUCH hype for this movie, and I’ve seen the other three films.

Florence Pugh did not deserve a nomination. If anything, Jennifer Lopez should have taken HER spot- not Kathy Bates (who was superb in Richard Jewell). The voter is right- they should have had someone younger play Amy, like Kirsten Dunst did so mischievously in the superior 1994 movie. Pugh is so wooden. So mannish almost. I think many people saying they loved her have a thing for the actress, and were blinded with their bias for the actor, and couldn’t see how dense the acting was. This happened with Jennifer Lawrence a lot when she was the “thing”. It’s the same when I ask the Little Women fans why it should win costumes. “Oh, because it’s a way to reward the film.” Same tired reasoning for designs that were not original at all. Jojo Rabbit or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood deserve it, or hell even The Irishman. Joker‘s nomination in Costumes is just that- a joke.

I read a lot of Twitter blogging just for entertainment. It’s clear many on there are under the age of 25. If only they could have witnessed Winona Ryder, Christina Bale, Dunst, Susan Sarandon, Claire Danes (!) in the 1994 Little Women that to this day has one of Thomas Newman’s best scores and earned Ryder a best actress nomination.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203328507

Damiansport1 wrote:

Nah. It will be Little Women. Most difficult are editing and production design.

Jojo Rabbit won the Costume Guild/Little Women the BAFTA. I’m not sure actually. I’m back and forth on this one.

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[Jason Travis]

#1203328419

Ford v Ferrari won the Cinema Audio Society award for Best Sound Mixing- though I don’t know how accurate they are vs. the Oscars.

I have Ford v Ferrari winning Film Editing and Sound Mixing; 1917 wins Sound Editing. This is risky, but for now thats where I see it playing out.

I keep going back and forth between The Lion King and 1917 for Best Visual Effects. Regarding the latter, yes the effects are great but they are very subtle (regarding the camera tricks). Will voters take notice? War films don’t win Visual Effects/usually sound and cinematography- sometimes production design. The Lion King has been doing a LOT of advertising on the making of the effects, and they are a sight to behold. It reminds me of when The Jungle Book won.

Then there’s still the business of The Irishman. If voters want to reward the Scorsese epic with anything, this seems to be the closest bet. But again, like 1917, the effects are subtle- and some complain that even if they made the faces look younger, the bodies weren’t able to be saved.

1917 could be a Gravity and just get name checked in all the tech categories.

Oh what a mess my mind gets a week before the ceremony!

• This reply was modified 11 months, 2 weeks ago by Jason Travis.
• This reply was modified 11 months, 2 weeks ago by Jason Travis.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203327298

I think The Lion King is winning. I know 1917 is def the favorite, but I agree that the effects are out of this world.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203327279

Kim Basinger Does the Right Thing (1990 Oscars)

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203327267

I respect Joaquin Phoenix as an actor, but I too wasn’t that overly impressed with or moved. Is what he said going to change the BAFTAs and how they vote? They never EVER nominated Denzel Washington for an award. To this day I find that bizarre. But that’s how it goes. If anything, I would have preferred Joaquin had said this speech at the Academy Awards- where many have taken the stage to protest racial inequality in films, including Brando and Kim Basinger, who in 1990 called out the snubbing for Spike Lee’s Do the Right Thing in the best picture race of 1989.

This is never an easy topic to discuss, but please don’t gang up on Atypical or anyone who has an opinion on what Joaquin spoke of. I don’t mean to put your name out there either, A, I just have known you on these boards a while now and know you’re a wise reflector.

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[Jason Travis Joined: May 20th, 2011 Topics: 98 Posts: 1863 View Predictions]

#1203327221

Anthony 🐜 wrote:

Yes, I had Sam Mendes winning the Directing Golden Globe since the beginning, and a had 1917 as the alternative to Joker.

Never thought for a second The Irishman had any chance in hell, even after so many fanboys tried to convince everyone that it will win just one award at the Golden Globes: Best Drama Film.

I have taken your wise advice and moved Ford vs Ferrari for Film Editing and Sound Mixing wins, giving 1917 Sound Editing. I still know splitting the sound awards might be risky, but I will keep it in place for now.

You explanation on the Film Editing was fascinating.

By the way- I am at a loss for two (2) categories

Documentary
Visual Effects

For the former, I think For Sama wins over American Factory. Many are picking the latter because of the “Obama” angle, but his production company was in charge of the movie; he wasn’t an actual producer. So he’s not going to be on stage making a speech (I don’t think). For Sama seems way more heartfelt and gut wrenching.

For Visual Effects, I am torn between The Lion King and 1917. The former is just masterful, CGI not something I am always a fan of- but it really works here. It reminds me of when The Jungle Book won on similar grounds. The latter uses a more subtle tactic to show us the camera continuously moving, but have war films done well in Visual Effects? I find it hard to believe voters will check it off here. And there’s also the subtle aging effects of The Irishman. I don’t think Avengers or Star Wars has a chance.

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[Jason Travis]

#1203326413

Asgaroth wrote:

In addition, lately BP has gone to the movie that “feels thematically/socially important” something 1917 doesn’t have; at the end of the day 1917 is just a spectacle movie about two dudes overcoming all sort of obstacles to deliver a message and that’s it.

While I agree with your assessment on BAFTA not being a recent strong indicator for the best picture Oscar, 1917 is most certainly socially important and DEF feels thematic (I saw it in Dolby Theaters specifically for the reasons of being immersed in that universe).

It’s more than just “two dudes delivering a message”. The message that prevented MAJOR casualties that could have made World War I even bloodier. The message where one man has to endure panic, heartbreak, courage and ultimately heroic boundaries.

• This reply was modified 11 months, 3 weeks ago by Jason Travis.
• This reply was modified 11 months, 3 weeks ago by Jason Travis.

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