[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1205250481

My prediction:

Kerry Condon- the lock of locks

Hong Chau- I can see The Whale getting in for Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Picture. It helps that she also put in a great performance in The Menu in 2022.

Jessie Buckley- I think the Academy likes her. Even with just a predictable BAFTA nom for Lost Daughter, she still got in at the Oscars last year and she’s even better in Women Talking.

Stephanie Hsu- I have a gut feeling that the Academy will go for the better supporting actress performance in EEAAO. Also, I don’t think the Academy feels like JLC is overdue for a nomination.

Dolly De Leon- I can see the International contingent of the Academy going all in for Dolly. If she gets in at BAFTA, I think she’ll get in at the Oscars.

Honorable Mentions:

Nina Hoss- I can see this as the coattail nomination like Marina De Tavira. Probably well respected amongst the international voters for her work with Christian Petzold. If her performance was more showy, I’d slot her in over Dolly.

Michelle Williams- I have this sick feeling that the Academy could relegate her to Supporting Actress the way they did Lakeith for Supporting Actor in 2020

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1205250399

My prediction is:

Brendan Fraser

Colin Farrell

Austin Butler

Bill Nighy

Paul Mescal

 

I think Colin or Austin will probably win. I’m leaning towards Colin. Aside from Banshees, his great performances in After Yang and The Batman last year should help him snatch the Oscar.

Also, I think for Brendan Fraser the nomination is the win. I don’t think the comeback narrative works for actors. Mickey Rourke, Michael Keaton and Sylvester Stallone all lost.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204878460

I saw CODA for the first time today and I cannot believe it’s the Best Picture frontrunner. From the 10 BP nominees, it lands in 7th place for me.

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[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204825300

There’s nothing in the precursors that would indicate to me that Kristen could win Best Actress, not even if she wins Critics’ Choice (because I find them reliably unreliable), but my gut instinct tells me she will win.

Chastain/Kidman should’ve won for A Most Violent Year and The Paperboy, respectively. Miss Kidman pissing all over Zac Efron warranted at least 2 Oscars.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204825260

If Benedict wins BAFTA, he wins the Oscar. Pundits calling the race over already seems too have forgotten that Chadwick and Glenn were solid frontrunners too.

Being the main character in the Best Picture frontrunner also helps Benedict.

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[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204796545

I think TPOTD will win Best Picture unless a strong alternate comes up. It would’ve been primed for an upset if it was proclaimed the frontrunner right out of Venice, fatigue would set it by now, but it instead Belfast was the number one.

Some people are saying that TPOTD might be the new La La Land, but for that to happen, there also has to be a new Moonlight. I don’t think there is a consensus contender in the field

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204786020

It’s like the Academy developed some taste.

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[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204775976

Julianne Moore winning an Oscar over Rosamund Pike and Marion Cotillard will never sit right with me.

Emma Stone winning over Isabelle Huppert too.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204775964

I am so sad about KStew missing. I thought Spencer was the best female-focused biopic of the year.

I’d put Alana Haim in the 5th slot and will be manifesting for a win.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204232135

I was more shocked that Colman won. In retrospect, I should have seen the signs that she would upset Glenn, but I dismissed her GG win because Glenn had a fantastic speech, and I thought BAFTA was doing it’s British thing.

Glenn had the overdue narrative going on, and despite being the movie’s sole nomination, I thought she would win because Julianne Moore was in the same boat a couple of years before.

Also, Olivia Colman had a relatively low profile stateside and was unable to campaign properly because of filming obligations for The Crown.

I think a lot people thought that if there was an upset, it would be Gaga.

On the other hand, many people thought Boseman would win, but in the last couple of weeks there was an Anthony Hopkins upset brewing. The anonymous ballots were also tilting towards him. It’s still a shock that Chadwick lost, not surprised that it was to Hopkins.

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[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204225890

GOT BEST ACTRESS RIGHT.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204219173

oscarin7 wrote:

Good analysis. While I agree with you in that Frances is the centre of what seems to be the Best Picture front runner, she has two big obstacles in front of her. The first is one you mentioned, she already has 2 Oscars and she would’ve had to be sweeping to add a third one. The other challenge is that Nomadland is most likely winning Best Picture so she’s already predicted to win for producing that film. In recent years we have witnessed that the Academy likes to spread the wealth. Therefore, I think Mulligan is in a great position to finally win her first Oscar.

Great point, but that’s the risk I’m gonna take. I’m banking on all the Nomadland love to carry Frances McDormand for Lead Actress, and the Academy disregards the fact that would the fact that they would be giving Frances her 3rd and 4th Oscar on the same night. They did give Bong Joon Ho 4 Oscars last year.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204219055

DCurrie wrote:

Pray tell how would you know that?! That’s right, you wouldn’t. The ridiculousness of it all.

I’m just speculating. That’s what we do here. If the Academy adores MRBB, it would have gotten in the more “important” races: Adapted Screenplay and Picture (or at least one of them). Also, it is already a lock to win 3 Oscars for Makeup and Hairstyling, Costume Design, and Actor. A movie winning both lead acting categories without a Best Picture nom is not very likely, I don’t even know if it’s ever happened.

Her screentime might be an issue for some too. She’s in the movie for just under 27 minutes. There has been shorter Best Actress performances in the past, but MRBB really belongs to Chadwick and he will be awarded for it. On the other hand, Carey and Frances are the centers of their respective films that got all the key nominations which could indicate the Academy’s enthusiasm.

Would I be surprised if Viola pulls off a win? No. She should have a Best Actress trophy, but I wouldn’t personally bet on it this year. Again, just a speculation.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204218629

Vanessa Kirby is in my fifth slot because there isn’t a way for her to sneak in.

Andra Day is in my 4th slot because there hasn’t been a woman who won Best Actress for their first role since Marlee Matlin in the 80s. Also, Andra’s not the only one playing a real singer, and Viola had to go through a more drastic physical transformation.

Viola Davis is in my 3rd slot because I think if voters are going to reward MRBB for its great performances, it would be for Chadwick. Only MRBB stans would vote for both Chadwick and Viola, and I don’t think there are many in the Academy. She may have won the SAG, but that guild really adores her. This is her 5th individual SAG award in the span of 10 years. Also, when was the last time a movie not nominated for best picture got both lead acting prizes?

Carey Mulligan is in my 2nd slot because I’m speculating that PYW would be very divisive among the older voters, might get dismissed for being too “genre”. The hype behind her chances of bagging the Oscar has felt like a film twitter thing.

I predict Frances McDormand would win because the only real strike against her is she’s won twice already. She’s the centre of the film most likely to win Best Picture, so why not her? Also, there’s only 3 people alive today who has 3 acting Oscars: Nicholson, Streep and Day-Lewis, and I don’t know anyone who would oppose adding McDormand to that list. If she didn’t win for Three Billboards, I think she would be the obvious frontrunner here.

That’s just the way I’ve tried to make it make sense in my head for my gold derby predictions, but if any of my top three wins, I wouldnt be surprised.

[jercooks Joined: Nov 28th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 15 View Predictions]

#1204134898

I cannot believe I’m 19th in combined. Got 97 nominees right and I really could’ve gotten 99 right if I stuck with with Steven Yeun and Youn Yuh-Jung. I went with Mikkelsen and Foster instead because with the Parasite and The Farewell acting snubs last year, I didn’t want to keep my hopes up.

Proud that I got all of adapted screenplay correct and Vinterberg for Director, but I thought he would take Fennell’s spot rather than Sorkin’s.

 

 

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