[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203915222

Anton Parcero wrote:

Why swifties put Cardigan as a front runner in SOTY… that song made no noise. “I can’t Breathe” is a stronger contender.

Top 24 users also seem to think Taylor will win. I personally don’t (even though I’m a fan) think she’ll win. But there’s a fair amount of fans and non-fans who think she will.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203914752

Monsoon 🌊 wrote:

If Taylor couldn’t win 5-6 GRAMMYs with a huge pop era like 1989, then she isn’t sweeping with folklore.

Monsoon 🌊 wrote:

If Taylor couldn’t win 5-6 GRAMMYs with a huge pop era like 1989, then she isn’t sweeping with folklore.

We do have to remember that most recent sweeps in history have not been done by pure-pop albums. 1989 was truly lucky to walk away with AOTY because pure-pop tends to faire badly at the Grammys. So there is some sort of chance that folklore can win 4-5 (if she’s having an amazing night) awards. Also we have to remember that Thinking Out Loud and Uptown Funk were bigger hits than Blank Space (maybe not more memorable, but at the time bigger on the charts) so that’s what I think prevented Taylor from sweeping.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203914736

I think Taylor continues to lead here. Dua is second and it wouldn’t be too shocking if she won, but at this point all eyes are on Taylor right now. folklore’s now near equally acclaimed “sister” is helping folklore rise on the charts and stay fresh in voters minds. Her Grammy campaign has been stellar.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203914723

It’s clear that evermore is gonna get nominations next year. It’s looking to be pretty bare pop-wise. Out of all of the pop albums released in this period it is the frontrunner to win too. But we’ll see how that changes. If folklore does win AOTY don’t expect evermore to make it into the general field. But if folklore doesn’t take home AOTY I see evermore making it in there noms-wise. However I see this album as more of a Grammys campaign event. It puts Taylor’s name back into voter’s minds if it wasn’t in there already. She could’ve easily have waited until early January but I think she saw an opportunity here.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203897363

Ace James wrote:

I see Taylor taking Vocal Album, Duo group, and Album of Year. That’s 3 wins and is pretty solid. The rest will go to either Dua or Billie

Starting to think that’s the case too.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203897361

Atleastimtrying wrote:

I think the most likely scenario is the “broad album support scenario”. Folklore wins AOTY and BPVA. Exile wins duo. I could totally see this happening, her walking away with 3 grammys. I think it would be very satisfying, for her and the fans. Another scenario i find its likely, is she wins 3 grammys, but this time they are AOTY, BPVA and cardigan wins SOTY. Duo goes to rain on me or dynamite. I dont see any sweep happening, i find it unlikely that she wins BSVP or the Cat’s movie song. I also dont find it likely that she walks home empty handed, i actually think thats the least likely scenario, specially when you take a look at the AOTY nominees and how all those albums (except Dua’s) are virtually unknown, and how folklore is doing great comercially and in AOTY lists. She has virtually no competition. I think its very likely she will get AOTY.

I think BPD/GP is more possible than SOTY. The Box and DSN seem to be stronger frontrunners there. I think yes it’s possible but I think she’d need to have enough support to win for exile before winning SOTY.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203897348

Starting to think an exile win here is inevitable. Also I think year-end charts are pretty irrelevant. Especially when the frontrunner isn’t even a single. It’s rare non-singles top these types of lists.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203897310

Taylor Swift Grammys scenarios

“Major Snub” VERY UNLIKELY

Wins: none

While I won’t put anything past the Grammys, I don’t see there being a way Taylor wins nothing. They want to award her for something, that’s clear. So I think her losing for exile, a category where she has very low competition would be pretty jarring. She’d have to have depressed pop support and no cross-genre support (folklore was built for this kind of cross-support.)

“Virtually no support scenario” UNLIKELY
Wins: exile for BPD/GP

This is an unlikely but not impossible scenario. She has little to no support and only wins for exile aka a near shoe-in win

“Pop support scenario” POSSIBLE
Wins: folklore for BPVA, exile for BPD/GP

This is if Taylor has support in pop but doesn’t have enough support in the general field. I find this to be a somewhat realistic scenario.

“Broad album support scenario” VERY LIKELY
Wins: folklore for AOTY/BPVA, exile for BPD/GP

This is the most 1989-ish scenario. Expecting cardigan to win SOTY is a tall order. It’s not likely. exile will only win in this scenario because of it’s lack of competition. I think this is the most likely scenario.

“Broad and diverse support (genre wise) scenario” PLAUSIBLE
Wins: folklore for AOTY/BPVA, cardigan for SOTY, exile for BPD/GP

If Taylor can get enough voters from other genres to back her she could walk away with SOTY for cardigan and the other award from the last scenario. But that’s only if country/alt voters want to vote for her there. I find this somewhat unlikely but not impossible.

“Mega-sweep scenario” VERY UNLIKELY
Wins: folklore for AOTY/BPVA, cardigan for SOTY/BPSP, exile for BPD/GP, Beautiful Ghosts for BSWFVM

Taylor has never formally SWEPT at the Grammys. So I see this as pretty unlikely scenario. But there’s a small chance that the academy has a soft spot for her and let’s her take all of her nominations.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203893267

Did anyone see that ASCAP graphic where Dr Luke was credited for DSN…

Reply

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203893045

Atleastimtrying wrote:

Do you guys think tomorrow December 4th we will get a MV for exile? Or maybe for august? Gotta feeling that something is coming cause taytay loves leaving easter eggs and her writing all those “4” gotta mean something.

I don’t think anything is happening tomorrow that holds a lot of significance? Maybe entertainment weekly with Jack?

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203893017

Out of the 28 years of this category only a handful of times has the winner had a pure pop album. 1989 most notably. Being “pure pop” does not mean you have a bigger chance here. Maybe slightly but folklore is still easily the frontrunner here because it’s the frontrunner in AOTY.

Reply

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203893005

wrote:

Airplay helps a lot, especially in pop. In other categories what you say might be true, but just look at the amount of radio hits nominated/win throughout the years in the pop field. Radio brings familiarity with a song.

Again, it Grammy voters know what they’re voting for pretty early on in advance. They aren’t changing their minds because they go on a ride and a nominated song plays.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203893002

borisy wrote:

thats all they do tho? They always vote for what is in front of them. Have you ever watched the grammys? Lol

  bad guy was below lover/truth hurts going into the final round of voting on radio, it didn’t change the results.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203892924

I don’t know why people think Grammy voters get in their cars, hear a song by a nominated artist and go “I’m voting for blank.” I don’t think it helps or hinders anything. Grammy campaigning like going over the creative process of the music, doing interviews, maybe special performances are things that help. Airplay not so much.

[Jerry Joined: Sep 25th, 2017 Topics: 15 Posts: 613 View Predictions]

#1203892903

PersonalCoochiePopper wrote:

Same goes for Intentions, no?

Same goes for every song there that was submitted for the gf. exile wasn’t submitted there which is why it wasn’t there. Taylor has the general field support to win this award. Dua is only a non-starter here because the song has nothing to do with FN.