Forum Replies Created
August 18, 2019 at 8:27 pm #1203029338
^^What makes you think that this particular film will get nominated outside of Best International Film category (where South Korea has yet to be nominated)?
True, but I’m pretty sure Mexico had never been nominated before Roma either. The academy has warmed up to foreign films, and even though I don’t see any of them getting Picture or Director nominations, I think they can get other above-the-line noms this year (Parasite for Screenplay, Pain and Glory for Actor).August 18, 2019 at 2:00 pm #1203029081
Fully agree but Screenplay could very well remain a possibility, especially if it gets WGA support. I have it rn in my predictions, only there. Along with OUAT, The Report, Marriage Story and Booksmart. No other contender really appeals to me right now.
Don’t sleep on Parasite in Original Screenplay: it looks like the type of bold, original story that the academy loves to nominate. Only obstacle is it being a foreign language film, but that didn’t stop Roma.August 17, 2019 at 4:50 pm #1203028293
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Marriage Story is very safe in Best Picture. It’s the only film playing at all fall festivals like Roma last year. It’s bound to get great reviews (90+ metacritic). It should be at least this year’s Manchester by the Sea. Ad Astra will be this year’s First Man sadly.
Don’t be too sure. A lot of powerful people, including Spielberg, want Netflix banned from Oscar contention entirely. Scorcese can withstand that backlash, but Baumbach can’t. Plus, he’s been snubbed before.
I agree about Ad Astra though, it will be just like First Man. A few technical noms and nothing else.August 17, 2019 at 3:53 pm #1203028264
I’m currently predicting Netflix to get 3 films to get into Best Picture (The Laundromat, Marriage Story and The Irishman). Is this realistic
I think Netflix bias is strong enough that only one of these 3 films will be nominated, and the Irishman is by far the most likely of the 3, since it’s a Scorcese film. It might be somewhat bold to predict Marriage Story getting snubbed, but I’m sure it will do well in the other above-the-line categories.August 17, 2019 at 10:22 am #1203028004
Uhm, i wouldn’t call Endgame more acclaimed than Avatar… Not that they are both masterpieces, but Avatar sure had enough acclaim during it’s year to be competitive for the win. Endgame does not have that.
Endgame is more acclaimed than Avatar if you look at both Rotten Tomatoes scores. Now, I could see the academy being less likely to embrace this film than they did Avatar, since James Cameron is an iconic film director. But Endgame is well loved enough that it can’t be ignored. No other Marvel film besides Black Panther has higher critical acclaim.August 17, 2019 at 5:59 am #1203027678
Endgame could very well get into Best Picture. The only other categories it could get in is VFX, Production Design, Costume, Sound and Score. There’s no way it’s getting near anything else especially Acting and Directing. 13 noms is too much to predict.
I agree, although it could also be nominated for Best Editing as well. They do nominate blockbuster movies for that category sometimes, even if they aren’t nominated for Best Picture, like The Force Awakens, the Bourne Ultimatum, and Baby DriverAugust 16, 2019 at 7:44 pm #1203027262
I mentioned this in a different thread, but Endgame actually could be a Best Picture nominee for one big reason: every highest-grossing film since the academy started has been nominated except for one, that being Jurassic Park. And it’s not hard to imagine that Schindler’s List prevented the other Spielberg film released in 1993 from being nominated. I do think 13 nominations for Endgame is ridiculous though. 5-6 is probably closer to what we get.August 16, 2019 at 7:39 pm #1203027256
I doubt this film will be a contender, but the good news is that Florence Pugh will probably still get academy recognition this year for her performance in Little Women.August 16, 2019 at 5:58 pm #1203027137
Tom Hanks just got moved to supporting, so I’m putting DeNiro in the open slot. Still predicting Driver to win.August 16, 2019 at 4:53 pm #1203027070
We now have official word that Matthew Rhys is lead and Tom Hanks is supporting. Look for those changes in the next hour or so. A reminder that as much as you request something, we don’t add or change anything without the studios or campaigners telling us to do so.
Thank goodness! The supporting actor category is so weak this year, and lead actor is super strong! This frees up a spot on my best actor list for DeNiro.August 15, 2019 at 8:40 am #1203025035
I don’t think Us has much of a chance of getting any nominations, since it wasn’t received as well as Get Out by critics and (especially) audiences, and all thr buzz has died. Plus, horror has been a historically ignored category by the Oscar’s. Maybe if Universal gives it a massive awards campaign it can still get in, but I think they will be focusing the brunt of their attention on 1917.August 14, 2019 at 4:13 pm #1203024122
Keeping in mind this is just a trailer, I have a lot of faith in this movie now. It looks like an old school Hollywood crowd-pleaser and an intelligently written character play in one package. It could become a major contender or a minor contender, but it sure looks like a contender. Cinematography, costume design, production design, editing, score and acting are stunningly on point. The pacing looks flawless. All this alone should bring it some combination of below the line, acting, and possibly screenplay nods. Whether the movie can go the extra mile, though, and seriously contend for Picture and Director, depends on what’s beneath the eye candy, craftspersonship and story-telling skill. Little Women, for all its timelessness, is a product of its time and can (and often has) be treated as such. But it can also offer a smorgasboard of opportunities to explore gender politics and say something meaningful about the time we live in right now. So hopefully there’s even more to this adaptation than meets the eye in the trailer. Knowing Gerwig’s sensibilities, I would be surprised if she just settled with telling the story the way it’s been told before.
I don’t think this film will be nominated for Director, since no female director has ever been nominated twice, but Picture seems like a strong possibility.August 14, 2019 at 6:22 am #1203023300
Avengers Endgame has one big advantage that no one is talking about. Every highest grossing film of all time since the Oscar’s began has been nominated for (or won) Best Picture, with only one exception: Jurassic Park. And Spielberg still won that year for Schindler’s List, so it’s not impossible to imagine that film preventing Jurassic Park from getting a nomination. Plus, Endgame had more critical acclaim than any other Marvel film save for Black Panther, and one blockbuster seems to get in almost every year. I don’t think it’s a guarantee, but Endgame definitely has a chance.August 13, 2019 at 8:56 pm #1203022963
I don’t think Ronan is a lock in the slightest. Little Women might turn out to be Sony’s third priority behind Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood – the latter is playing at TIFF and could easily win the audience award which would really bode well for its awards chances. Little Women should make money but so should A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood given how well the trailer played to the general public. My point is I don’t see Sony being able to get 3 films in Best Picture and Ronan has yet to be nominated for a film that wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. She’ll get great reviews, but she could easily miss. I think it’s a mistake on Sony’s part by not taking this to any of the fall festivals.
Fox has gotten 3 films into the Best Picture race in one year on multiple occasions (2015 and 2017 being the most recent), so there’s reason to believe Sony can’t do it too. All 3 of those films are huge contenders, and with enough campaigning they can easily all get nominated.