[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203966681

1. Sam Rockwell, Vice
2. Alan Arkin, Argo
3. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
4. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Amy Adams, Vice

HONORABLE MENTIONS:
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

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[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203940737

So basically whoever win the Drama Globe takes the Oscar?

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203940086

Boseman will also get a ton of advertising with the televised awards using his celebrity to draw interest. He’s so easily positioned to sweep. The fact that the BAFTA is probably harder to attain than the Oscar is quite interesting to me. I could also see Ahmed spoiling and Boseman suddenly generating a ton of narrative for a supporting win.

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203940068

I am kind of intrigued by the opportunities that the Drama category at the Globes presents. With only Davis, McDormand, and Kirby likely locked (even though Kirby seems to be losing steam), there remains two spots to fill. Day could easily enter the race and lock up the fourth spot, which leaves room for Winslet, Adams, Moss, or Loren. There is still a chance that Winslet slips in and snags a BAFTA nomination; with some career-best raves, SAG also isn’t out of the question. Were she to hit all three, we could see either Day or Kirby lose a spot altogether once Mulligan is factored back in. Adams likely won’t be able to get support at BAFTA, but SAG and the Globes could bite. Loren just needs her narrative to kick in and she could appear at all three, or at least pop up at SAG and get another word-of-mouth to return to the fray. Moss seems like the outsider, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she nabbed a SAG nomination.

I really just need confirmation that Day is in this. Knowing whether she’s amazing or terrible would also be comforting.

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203940041

I feel like Bakalova’s move is not a good one. Sure, she is probably more likely to get a nomination in a less competitive field with less prominent names, but Bakalova’s entire narrative as a fringe nominee is centered around her obtaining nominations that were unexpected of her. Moving her from a category in which the nomination itself is the reward to one where there’s no pay-off to be nominated, she isn’t exactly being set up up well to be a dark horse contender for the Oscars.

The reason most people feel more strongly that Ahmed, McDormand, Lindo, Mulligan, Boseman, Seyfried and Davis will actually benefit from winning in critic’s circle is because they have been proven (besides maybe Seyfried and Lindo, but she’s a recognizable performer and he’s riding somewhat of an overdue narrative) to be awards show material (Ahmed has an Emmy, Davis and McDormand both have Triple Crown’d, Mulligan has Oscar & Tony nods, Boseman is a SAG winner). Having already been anticipated to perform well at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA, it only further solidifies their likelihood of making the final Oscar line-up when the receive additional acclaim from critics. Bakalova is a passion pick, so it should be expected that she would perform well amongst critics (she is sweeping, so there is over-performance to acknowledge). Where she needs to make actual strides is at the televised award shows. By being moved out of a higher stakes line-up, Bakalova is getting additional exposure that was inherent in a nomination, but her credibility as a winning candidate is simultaneously lowered by not being submitted where she could spoil or at least generate more support against the peers she would end up facing at the Oscars.

Also, Bakalova jumping to a lead bid at the Globes might provide a bit of a boost to the other supporting actress contenders. Any of the predicted nominees that would otherwise have been predicted to score the nomination are only further legitimized without her in the running, which sets her up to be fighting for a fifth place spot. I’d argue that she was already in that position, but her being established closer to the cusp might backfire.

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203938646

JackO wrote:

she will make it to sag too easy. they are populist. BAFTA will snub her but who cares. I bet they are gonna snub delroy, viola, and chadwick. then we wont have to pay attention to them ever again.

Although I do feel as though BAFTA would be the awards show to snub the most BIPOC contenders, I honestly feel pretty good about all three of them making it in. Boseman’s narrative is pretty undeniable. I still see Hopkins winning here, but that doesn’t mean Boseman is any less strong than he would be otherwise. Davis’ record with the BAFTAs is equal to her Oscar one, with a surprise nomination for Widows boding well for cracking a Best Actress line-up. She’s essentially the sole competitive Black actress in her race (we still don’t know what’s going on with Andra Day or Zendaya) and the current frontrunners (McDormand, Mulligan, and a distant Kirby) are probably not garnering universal support that would jeopardize Davis’ spot in the final line-up. Lindo is probably the most likely to miss, but he is British and they have embraced Spike Lee before, so it isn’t out of the picture. I think Oldman will definitely hurt another performer’s chances, but I would worry more about Ahmed or Yeun than Lindo at this point.

Also, aren’t all members required to complete unconscious bias training before voting this year? If so, no way there isn’t somewhat of a push to get the most prominent non-white performers across all four acting races to get in.

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203938628

Lady Bird Ronan wrote:

No. Damon and Fassbender were definitely ahead of him lol.

None of them really had any passion behind their performances though. Damon missed SAG and I highly doubt anyone will ever win an Oscar for playing Steve Jobs. Even Cranston honestly might have had more of a chance if DiCaprio’s narrative wasn’t the primary driver of the race. I would have loved to see Damon swoop in and snag the Oscar, but this race was boring and Redmayne had the Oscar-bait role. It would have been an atrocious win, but it is the AMPAS lol.

I did try to post more of a hot take to have a discussion beyond the typical Streep-Davis-Williams conversation, so I’m all ears for further commentary.

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[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203938495

If DiCaprio had won in 2013, Redmayne would have pulled a Tom Hanks.

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[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203938487

Delroy doing this well with Chadwick’s narrative in play makes me think he’s going to be the critic’s push. Hopefully that leaves enough for at least two more passion picks, since Boseman and Hopkins are locked at this point. If Oldman and someone like Hanks were to do well with the televised awards, I would be worried for Lindo, Ahmed, and Yeun to all make it in. This could be such an exciting group if we had four non-white actors in the running, especially if it includes the first East-Asian and first Muslim nominees, as well as the fifth instance in which two Black actors were nominated together.

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203938349

You all eliminated in my head, Into You, bad idea, and everytime before the tired Lizzo remix? Embarrassing.

+5 ghostin’
+5 better off
+5 goodnight n go
+5 God is a woman
-10 Good as Hell (Remix)
-5 blazed
-5 A Little More Homework

thank u, next (375)

Be Alright (204)

Good As Hell (Remix) (with Lizzo) (155)

You Can’t Stop the Beat (with Maddie Baillio, Garrett Clayton, Ephraim Sykes, Harvey Fierstein, Martin Short, Jennifer Hudson, Dove Cameron, Kristin Chenoweth and the Hairspray Live! cast) (145)

Break Your Heart Right Back (feat. Childish Gambino) (114)

Dance to This (with Troye Sivan) (59)

Only 1 (56)
34+35 (56)

pov (50)

ghostin’ (45)
no tears left to cry (45)

Tattooed Heart (40)

breathin’ (39)

raindrops (an angel cried) (37)

Greedy (35)
successful (35)
borderline (feat. Missy Elliot) (35)
Come So Far (Got So Far to Go) (with Jennifer Hudson) (35)
imagine (35)

The Wizard and I (34)

get well soon (32)

better off (30)
God is a woman (30)
goodnight n go (30)
Honeymoon Avenue (30)
Somewhere Over the Rainbow (Live from Manchester) (30)

One Last Time (29)
sweetener (29)

Touch It (28)

A Hand for Mrs Claus (with Idina Menzel) (25)
A Little More Homework (feat. Graham Phillips) (25)
Adore (with Cashmere Cat) (25)
All My Love (with Major Lazer) (25)
Baby I (25)
Bad Decisions (25)
Bad to You (with Normani and Nicki Minaj) (25)
Bang Bang (with Jessie J and Nicki Minaj) (25)
Be My Baby (feat. Cashmere Cat) (25)
Beauty and the Beast (with John Legend) (25)
Better Left Unsaid (25)
Dangerous Woman (25)
Daydreamin’ (25)
December (25)
fake smile (25)
Focus (25)
Get On Your Knees (with Nicki Minaj) (25)
Give It Up (with Elizabeth Gillies and Victorious Cast) (25)
Got Her Own (with Victoria Monet) (25)
Hands on Me (feat. A$AP Ferg) (25)
Heatstroke (with Calvin Harris, Young Thug and Pharrell) (25)
I Don’t Care (25)
just like magic (25)
Knew Better / Forever Boy (25)
Last Christmas (25)
Leave Me Lonely (feat. Macy Gray) (25)
Love Me Harder (with The Weeknd) (25)
Lovin’ It (25)
Monopoly (with Victoria Monet) (25)
Moonlight (25)
motive (with Doja Cat) (25)
My Everything (25)
My Favourite Part (with Mac Miller) (25)
my hair (25)
NASA (25)
nasty (25)
needy (25)
Nobody (with Chaka Khan) (25)
Not Just on Christmas (25)
obvious (25)
Oh Santa (with Mariah Carey and Jennifer Hudson) (25)
off the table (with The Weeknd) (25)
Popular Song (with MIKA) (25)
positions (25)
Right There (feat. Big Sean) (25)
Sometimes (25)
The Way (feat. Mac Miller) (25)
They Don’t Know (25)
Time (with Childish Gambino) (25)
True Love (25)
Without Love (with Garrett Clayton, Maddie Baillio, Ephraim Sykes and the Hairspray Live! cast) (25)
west side (25)
Why Try (25)
You Don’t Know Me (25)
You Don’t Own Me (with Kristin Chenoweth) (25)
You’ll Never Know (25)

R.E.M (21)

blazed (feat. Pharrell Williams) (20)
Love Is Everything (20)

Everyday (feat. Future) (19)

Let Me Love You (feat. Lil Wayne) (14)

Rule the World (with 2 Chainz) (10)

Faith (with Stevie Wonder) (5)

Jason’s Song (Gave It Away) (3)

ELIMINATED:
1. Don’t Call Me Angel (with Miley Cyrus and Lana Del Rey)
2. Rain On Me (with Lady Gaga)
3. Boys Is Like (with Who Is Fancy? and Meghan Trainor)
4. shut up
5. Just a Little Bit of Your Heart
6. Put Your Hearts Up
7. break up with your girlfriend, i’m bored
8. 7 rings
9. Stuck with U (with Justin Bieber)
10. everytime
11. Problem (feat. Iggy Azalea)
12. Over and Over Again (with Nathan Sykes)
13. Break Free (with Zedd)
14. What Do You Mean? (Remix) (with Justin Bieber)
15. Brand New You (feat. Brynn Williams & Caitlin)
16. Bed (with Nicki Minaj)
17. Boyfriend (with Social House)
18. This Is Not a Feminist Song (with Saturday Night Lige cast)
19. Intro (Christmas & Chill)
20. the light is coming (feat. Nicki Minaj)
21. Snow in California
22. bad idea
23. in my head
24. How I Look on You
25. Almost Is Never Enough (with Nathan Sykes)
26. Zero to Hero
27. six thirty
28. L.A. Boyz (with Victorious Cast and Victoria Justice)
29. pete davidson
30. Piano
31. Quit (with Cashmere Cat)
32. Wit It This Christmas
33. Intro (My Everything)
34. Santa Baby (with Liz Gillies)
35. Santa Tell Me
36. bloodline
37. make up
38. Research (wirh Big Sean)
39. Thinking Bout You
40. Mama I’m a Big Girl Now (with Maddie Baillio, Dove Cameron, Harvey Fierstein, Andrea Martin, Kristin Chenoweth and the Hairspray Live! cast)
41. Winter Things
42. safety net (feat. Ty Dolla $ign)
43. Best Mistake (feat. Big Sean)
44. Into You
45. Side to Side (feat. Nicki Minaj)

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[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203935272

Promising Young Women maintains momentum. Although I think McDormand and Davis are still slightly ahead, Mulligan’s vehicle is strong and I don’t see how she misses with this kind of praise for the picture.

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203935006

So Colman is really just going to be a television awards thing?

[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203927879

This tangent about The Morning Show just makes me even angrier that Gugu Mbatha-Raw was so egregiously snubbed. She deserved an Emmy and didn’t even get nominated. Embarrassing. She better get an IOY win the next time she’s in contention.

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[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203913561

+5 Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder, Season 1
+5 Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us
+3 Billy Porter, Pose, Season 1
+2 Regina King, American Crime, Season 1
-5 Claire Foy, The Crown, Season 2
-5 Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
-5 Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live, Season 42

Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder, Season 1 (2355)

Claire Foy, The Crown, Season 2 (1745)

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Murder House (1310)

Regina King, American Crime, Season 1 (322)

Billy Porter, Pose, Season 1 (318)

Ty Burrell, Modern Family, Season 2 (260)

Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live, Season 42 (229)

Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us (185)

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale, Season 1 (20)

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven (10)

Eliminated:
158) Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent, Season 1
157) David Strathairn, Temple Grandin
156) Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad, Season 3
155) Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale, Season 2
154) Martin Freeman, Sherlock : His Last Vow
153) Allison Janney, Mom, Season 1
152) Kathy Bates, Two and a Half Men, Season 9
151) Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, Season 3
150) Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad, Season 5B
149) Damian Lewis, Homeland, Season 1
148) Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, Season 5B
147) Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live
146) Justin Timberlake, Saturday Night Live
145) Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, Season 4
144) Regina King, American Crime, Season 2
143) Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, Season 3
142) Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock : His Last Vow
141) Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire, Season 3
140) Dave Chapelle, Saturday Night Live, Season 42
139) Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, Season 5
138) Bob Newhart, The Big Bang Theory, Season 6
137) Bill Murray, Olive Kitteridge
136) Tiffany Haddish, Saturday Night Live, Season 43
135) Rami Malek, Mr Robot, Season 1
134) Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men, Season 9
133) Dan Bucatinsky, Scandal, Season 2
132) Loretta Devine, Grey’s Anatomy, Season 7
131) Katt Williams, Atlanta, Season 2
130) Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory, Season 3
129) Ann Margaret, Law and Order : SVU, Season 11
128) Paul McCrane, Harry’s Law, Season 1
127) Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad, Season 5A
126) Sterling K Brown, This is Us, Season 1
125) Ron Cephas Jones, This is Us, Season 2
124) Julie Bowen, Modern Family, Season 3
123) Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, Season 1
122) Gerald McRaney, This is Us, Season 1
121) Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights, Season 5
120) Tom Berenger, Hatfields and McCoys
119) Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom, Season 1
118) Hank Azaria, Ray Donovan, Season 3
117) Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent, Season 2
116) Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live, Season 42
115) Guy Pearce, Mildred Pierce
114) Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory, Season 7
113) Joe Morton, Scandal, Season 3
112) Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, Season 7
111) Julia Ormond, Temple Grandin
110) Louie Anderson, Baskets, Season 1
109) Tina Fey and Amy Poehler, Saturday Night Live, Season 41
108) Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black, Season 2
107) Laura Linney, The Big C : Hereafter
106) Jeff Daniels, Godless
105) Joan Cusack, Shameless, Season 5
104) Barry Pepper, The Kennedys
103) Kevin Costner, Hatfields and McCoys
102) Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer, Season 5
101) Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
100) James Cromwell, AHS : Asylum
99) Cherry Jones, The Handmaid’s Tale, Season 2
98) Betty White, Saturday Night Live
97) Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory, Season 4
96) Henry Winkler, Barry, Season 1
95) Jeremy Davies, Justified, Season 3
94) Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, Season 8
93) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, Season 1
92) Alexander Skarsgård, Big Little Lies, Season 1
91) Jane Lynch, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Season 2
90) Martha Plimpton, The Good Wife, Season 3
89) Sterling K Brown, The People Vs O.J. Simpson
88) Ty Burrell, Modern Family, Season 5
87) Julie Bowen, Modern Family, Season 2
86) Gwyneth Paltrow, Glee, Season 2
85) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, Season 2
84) Margo Martindale, The Americans, Season 3
83) Margo Martindale, Justified, Season 2
82) Neil Patrick Harris, Glee, Season 1
81) Al Pacino, You Don’t Know Jack
80) Sarah Paulson, The People Vs O.J. Simpson
79) Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife, Season 2
78) Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies, Season 1
77) Jane Lynch, Glee, Season 1
76) Merritt Wever, Godless
75) Thandie Newton, Westworld, Season 2
74) Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
73) Melissa Leo, Louie, Season 3
72) Margo Martindale, The Americans, Season 4
71) Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
70) Regina King, Seven Seconds
69) Luke Kirby, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Season 2
68) Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad, Season 5B
67) Carrie Preston, The Good Wife, Season 4
66) John Lithgow, Dexter, Season 4
65) Bill Hader, Barry, Season 2
64) Jodie Comer, Killing Eve, Season 2
63) Kate Winslet, Mildred Pierce
62) Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Season 2
61) Allison Janney, Masters of Sex, Season 1
60) Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline, Season 2
59) Claire Danes, Homeland, Season 2
58) Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
57) Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family, Season 3
56) Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife, Season 5
55) Laura Dern, Big Little Lies, Season 1
54) Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie, Season 5
53) Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife, Season 1
52) Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live, Season 42
51) Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale, Season 2
50) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, Season 3
49) Reg. E Cathey, House of Cards, Season 3
48) Jon Hamm, Mad Men, Season 7B
47) Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag, Season 2
46) Julia Garner, Ozark, Season 2
45) Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale, Season 1
44) Peter Scolari, Girls, Season 5
43) Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live, Season 41
42) Matthew Rhys, The Americans, Season 6
41) Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals
40) Bradley Whitford, Transparent, Season 1
39) Richard Jenkins, Olive Kitteridge
38) Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
37) Uzo Aduba, Orange Is the New Black, Season 1
36) Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Season 1
35) Tony Hale, Veep, Season 4
34) Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, Season 6
33) Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black, Season 4
32) Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie, Season 1
31) Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Season 2
30) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, Season 6
29) Donald Glover, Atlanta, Season 1
28) Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, Season 2
27) Patricia Arquette, The Act
26) Claire Danes, Temple Grandin
25) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, Season 5
24) Courtney B Vance, The People Vs O.J. Simpson
23) Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
22) Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep, Season 4
21) Allison Janney, Mom, Season 2
20) Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly, Season 1
19) Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Season 1
18) Tony Hale, Veep, Season 2
17) Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family, Season 1
16) Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale, Season 1
15) Bill Hader, Barry, Season 1
14) Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, Season 1
13) Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge
12) Claire Danes, Homeland, Season 1
11) Julianne Moore, Game Change

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[JROCK1772 Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 1045 View Predictions]

#1203897415

Seems odd to see the argument “she does nothing” being used against Ronan and Seyfried when Laura Dern won last year for a role that was criticized by some to be a “nothing role / performance.”

Haven’t watched Ammonite or Mank yet, but nothing performances often end up being nuanced performances that Gold Derby just wants to cancel to make the race more exciting…