[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203171072

The hype surrounding Joaquin reminds me vaguely of Toni Collette last year. I honestly could see him getting snubbed in a few of the places where users are predicting him to win on the basis of genre bias and if performers with upcoming films gain enough praise to generate momentum over him. However, considering that Banderas, DiCaprio, and Egerton all have had the focus earlier on, it might be hard for anyone to break out significantly in the next few weeks, besides Driver. De Niro seems to be jumping up.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203168437

I feel like the line-up will be Banderas, De Niro, DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. In a perfect world, Egerton would take Phoenix’s spot for me, but we live in a world that awarded Rami Malek for lip-synching and Queen nostalgia so…

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203164456

I tend to mind my own business here, but this seemed like an effective platform to voice a complaint. I love reading GoldDerby articles, but there is a user named Adrian Khoo who comments on literally every single article. Obviously, I can simply ignore the comment section altogether, but this user seems to be blatantly commenting unnecessarily long paragraphs that lack any substantial meaning.

HammadAsif is ridiculously obnoxious though. His comments lack any substance and reiterate the same point for PAGES on end. I agree that we all should be able to voice our respective opinions, but I would have absolutely no issue if users started getting sanctioned for repeating themselves a million times with incoherent and poorly supported arguments.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203147075

CateNicole wrote:

Wasn’t here on the forum at the time but I can’t imagine anyone thinking McDormand wouldn’t sweep with her performance in 3BB…

Everyone in that line-up (sans Meryl), at some point or another, was thought to be a spoiler. No one seemed to believe Frances was an absolute lock to sweep until she did. I remember Hawkins being the early frontrunner, until the momentum died after the Globes, with the Critics Choice Best Picture win bumping her back up, only to be flattened again at BAFTAs. It resurged slightly going into Oscar night (probs from the Shape of Water Best Picture forecasts), but McDormand ended up completing her sweep. Ronan stirred some interest following the Globes, but burned out to a solid 3rd or 4th around the time of the Oscars. Robbie surprisingly spiked following her Globe loss, with a few predicting her to surprise on Oscar night. Meryl was just kinda there for the ride, with Bening, Chastain, and Dench occasionally popping up in conversation, despite lacking awards traction. Stone was mostly ignored because she had just won and no one cared about Mirren’s chances. Michelle Williams was also in the conversation for like two days, but that was Plummer’s vehicle apparently.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203147001

I am genuinely hoping that Alfre Woodard can score a nomination. I could see Johansson, Theron, and Zellweger snagging three slots easily, but the race for the remaining two slots could be down to the nail with Ronan, Mirren, Woodard, Erivo, Nyong’o, and Awkwafina.

Zellweger is probably the most safe nominee in all voting bodies, especially the Globes and SAG, unless she has lost that affection she held firmly from 1996 – 2006 post-hiatus. Theron will definitely score a Globe nomination (with a potential easy win), since she has good will there and repeatedly secures nods. SAG and BAFTA shouldn’t be too difficult for her either. If she snags those two, she’s essentially confirmed for an Oscar nod. Johansson is less easily predictable, given her lack of awards traction in the past, but BAFTA bit twice in one go and she won without a vote split, so she clearly has some admiration there. Likewise, he has had Globe support and should be an easy name check there regardless. SAG is where the remainder of her Oscar trajectory will be determined, but her role is decent SAG bait and shouldn’t be too hard to sell.

BAFTA will be interesting, considering how often they snub non-white talent. Ronan got nominated for The Lovely Bones in 2009, so I doubt they’d ignore her. Perhaps there is room for Erivo, who could benefit from an afterglow nomination following her Rising Star nod. Mirren, if her film sticks, could sneak in essentially anywhere, considering she has been nominated by BAFTA, SAG, and the Globes for multiple different instances where she ended up falling short of an Oscar bid.

SAG could bite for Woodard, considering she has never been nominated for an individual performance in a film there. Ronan will probably be guaranteed, considering SAG will definitely usher in the cast since A) it’s an ensemble picture and B) it includes Streep. Nyong’o doesn’t seem to have any industry support, nor will her early release help. I could see her scoring a SAG nod, but Us would have to be winning Best Ensemble, which is highly unlikely. The Globes might be the only reception she gets, if that. Awkwafina will definitely score a nod at the Globes, considering how barren the Comedy submissions will be, but I don’t think BAFTA or SAG will throw her a bone.

What I foresee as the way the respective awards bodies will vote:
BAFTA:
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger
TOSS-UP: Erivo or Mirren

Golden Globes (C/M):
Awkwafina
Theron
Thompson
+ 2 additional nods (probably Booksmart girls)

Golden Globes (D):
Johansson
Ronan
Zellweger
TOSS-UP: Mirren or Nyong’o or Woodard

SAG:
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger
TOSS-UPS: Mirren or Woodard
* Awkwafina could become a passion pick here

Oscars:
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger
TOSS-UP: Mirren or Woodard
* Erivo or Awkwafina could overperform and sneak in

Essentially, Nyong’o isn’t likely. Erivo and Awkwafina need miracle campaigns to propel themselves to higher recognition and maintain their early momentum. Woodard, who likely won’t snag a BAFTA nod, could score crucial nominations for an overdue narrative with SAG and the Globes, unless Mirren steals her needed spots. Mirren could sneak in with a good performance and good will, especially if McKellen is along for the ride. Beyond that, Johansson / Theron / Zellweger seem like locks, with Ronan right on their heels.

There also seems to be a fair share of people who assume Dern is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress because she is on the Governor’s Board and will thus have heavy industry support. Woodard is an AMPAS board member… Just sayin.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203061056

The Thomasin McKenzie omission…

+4 Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
+4 Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
+2 John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
+2 Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
-6 Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
-4 Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
-2 Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade

Rosamund Pike – A Private War (107)

Amandla Stenberg – The Hate U Give (101)

Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place (75)

Toni Collette – Hereditary (62)

Ryan Gosling – First Man (59)

Hugh Grant – Paddington 2 (47)

Lakeith Stanfield – Sorry to Bother You (41)
Jesse Plemmons – Game Night (41)

Sakura Ando – Shoplifters (37)

Ethan Hawke – First Reformed (36)

Viola Davis – Widows (28)

Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade (26)
Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here (26)
Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk (26)
Steven Yeun – Burning (26)

Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (25)

Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians (24)

Claire Foy – First Man (23)

Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (22)

John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (21)

John Cho – Searching (20)
Daveed Diggs – Blindspotting (20)
Ruppert Everett – The Happy Prince (20)
Regina Hall – Support the Girls (20)
Kathryn Hahn – Private Life (20)
Helena Howard – Madeleine’s Madeleine (20)
Joanna Kulig – Cold War (20)
KiKi Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk (20)
Carey Mulligan – Wildfire (20)
Charlize Theron – Tully (20)
John David Washington – Monsters and Men (20)
Elizabeth Debicki – Widows (20)
Cynthia Erivo – Bad Times at the El Royale (20)
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria (20)

Danai Gurira – Black Panther (19)
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns (19)
Josh Hamilton – Eighth Grade (19)

Ben Foster – Leave No Trace (18)

Nicole Kidman – Destroyer (16)
Zoe Kazan – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (16)
Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (16)

Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (15)
Natalie Portman – Vox Lux (15)

Russell Hornsby – The Hate U Give (15)

Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians (14)

Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk (13)

Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (12)
Robert Redford – The Old Man & The Gun (12)
Alia Shawkat – Blaze (12)

Kayll Carter – Private Life (11)

J. Smith-Cameron – Nancy (9)

Tyne Daly – A Bread Factory (7)

Eliminated:
70) Steve Carell – Vice
69) John C. Reilly – Stan and Ollie
68) Peter Bogdanovich – The Other Side of the Wind
67) Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased
66) Chadwick Boseman – Black Panther
65) Tessa Thompson – Creed II
64) Steve Coogan – Stan & Ollie
63) Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
62) Nick Robinson – Love, Simon
61) John C. Reilly – The Sisters Brothers
60) Christian Malheiros – Sócrates
59) Russell Crowe – Boy Erased
58) Linda Cardellini – Green Book
57) Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
56) Trine Dryholm – Nico, 1988
55) Nina Arlanda – Stan & Ollie
54) Michelle Pfiefffer – Where Is Kyra?
53) Raul Castillo – We the Animals

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203042436

I don’t personally believe Shawn to be racist, especially if the primary argument is the afro Snapchat. That post is, in no way, remotely racist. His “light skin girls >>>” tweet was a little less tasteful, but I wouldn’t deem it a blatant example of racism either. However, I would consider his documented use of the N-word in past tweets as insensitive. His apology, although fairly lackluster, seems appropriate and it would be absolutely ridiculous to crucify someone for slightly problematic behavior they exhibited when they were a teenager when he did actually take responsibility and apologized.

On the other hand, there is legitimate proof of Camila Cabello repeatedly using the N-word in a derogatory manner, specifically towards former band-mate Normani. Beyond the cyber-bullying, she also posted a rape joke a few years back. As I stated before, individuals should be given the opportunity to grow and acknowledge that their behavior was problematic. However, her “apology” from 2018 lacked any sincerity and basically articulated that she didn’t feel the need to do so because the internet is a critical place. She has truly never taken responsibility for her disgusting internet presence as a teenager and I doubt she ever will. If anyone should be receiving flack in this situation, it should be Camila. The fact that she is taken seriously as an artist by anyone is a embarrassment to the music industry.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203040545

Mukund wrote:

The only cast member deserving of an Emmy win from Big Little Lies S1 was Nicole Kidman.

Shailene Woodley was the MVP for me. She should have Dern’s Emmy.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203036507

+5 Cox / Watson
-5 Fern / Henson

Richard Madden – Bodyguard (216)

Keeley Hawes – Bodyguard (190)

Mj Rodriguez – Pose (99)

Julia Roberts – Homecoming (93)

Frances Conroy – American Horror Story: Apocalypse (71)

Christine Baranski – The Good Fight (67)

Michael Sheen – The Good Fight (46)

Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul (42)

Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story: Apocalypse (23)

Bobby Cannavale – Homecoming (19)
Susan Kelechi Watson – This Is Us (19)

Matthew McFayden – Succession (14)

Shea Whigham – Homecoming (12)

Taraji P. Henson – Empire (11)
Stephan James – Homecoming (11)

Uzo Aduba – Orange is the New Black (9)
Brain Cox – Succession (9)

Cody Fern – American Horror Story: Apocalypse (7)

Eliminated:
48) Freddie Highmore – The Good Doctor
47) Richard Schiff – The Good Doctor
46) Peter Mullen – Ozark
45) Gillian Anderson – Sex Education
44) Ryan Jamaal Swain – Pose
43) Jeremy Strong – Succession
42) Surrane Jones – Gentleman Jack
41) Sonequa Martin-Green – Star Trek: Discovery
40) Angela Bassett – 911
39) Jason Isaacs – The OA
38) Sam Heughan – Outlander
37) Dina Shihabi – Jack Ryan
36) Liev Schreiber – Ray Donovan
35) Elizabeth Olsen – Sorry for Your Loss
34) Sissy Spacek – Homecoming
33) Evan Peters – Pose
32) Chrissy Metz – This Is Us
31) Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Deuce
30) Kathy Bates – American Horror Story: Apocalypse
29) James Franco – The Deuce
28) J.K. Simmons – Counterpart
27) Kieran Culkin – Succession
26) Jodie Whittaker – Doctor Who
25) John Krasinski – Jack Ryan
24) Indya Moore – Pose
23) Caitriona Balfe – Outlander
22) Justin Hartley – This Is Us
21) Asia Kate Dillon – Billions
20) Asa Butterfield – Sex Education
19) Maura Tierney – The Affair

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203035584

Won’t You Be My Neighbor for Best Documentary. It was the frontrunner and is literally the highest-grossing biographical documentary of all time.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203034962

mafro987 wrote:

It’s between her, Shaw and Headey. If you’re predicting Headey, you need to be predicting a near sweep for GOT (Dinklage, possibly Clarke, Van Houten, writing/directing) because that’s the only scenario where she wins.

I don’t think Clarke or Van Houten need to win for Headey to do so. Headey has a better track record at the Emmys than both of them combined, so her win is not dependent on either of them prevailing. Van Houten also is stacked against Rashad, Tyson, and Lange, whereas Headey is competing with Fiona Shaw and three of her costars. Clarke is a longshot and her winning isn’t happening with both of the Killing Eve stars in the mix. Even Mandy Moore is gonna steal votes from Clarke.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203033635

DrewN92 wrote:

I find it interesting Dern wasn’t even in either of the teasers. I know she’s a supporting player but considering the buzz from her performance/role in this I was just surprised she wasn’t even shown unless I missed it.

Regardless, I think both Driver and Johansson look great. I could see both of them becoming frontrunners if the reception is good. I think Johansson’s biggest hurdle will be getting the nomination.

She appears very briefly in the courtroom scene, seated near Scarlett’s character.

I actually think this was a smart move. If the courtroom scene truly is as meaty as it has been proclaimed to be, the teaser was an excellent sampling for the movie without giving away too much. That approach could allow Dern to be a surprise knockout once the film is released and people actually get a taste of the performance. Likewise, if they held off on a lot of the emotional parts of Driver and Johansson’s performances, they could exceed expectations and break into the race in the top tiers of their respective categories.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203031478

vinny wrote:

I have to ask: why do you think that? I’m a superfan of them and this isn’t the first time I heard someone say that they didn’t like it….most of them becuase they thought it was too “Pop-ish”

There music seems to be gearing towards an audience of white suburban mothers in how “radio-friendly” it has become. Brendon Urie’s voice has always bothered me, but it really has gotten bad with their recent singles. The album itself is also fairly lackluster when you look at their previous work.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203027784

I really would be fine with either DiCaprio or Egerton getting the Globe at this point. Both performances were extremely impressive. Had Bohemian Rhapsody never happened, Egerton would probably sweep it, but I’ll accept DiCaprio, considering he’ll probably get the Oscar nom anyways.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 973 View Predictions]

#1203027776

PANIC! at the Disco’s Pray for the Wicked album is garbage and deserves to be set on fire.

Chris Brown needs to be cancelled entirely and the fact that he still gets work is incredibly disappointed. The fact that the general public will still listen to his music is shameful and there needs to be an additional movement to end his career. The way he has treated MULTIPLE women in the industry is disgusting and people like Drake and Bieber deserve flack for defending him.

Adam Levine is a shitty human being and Maroon 5 absolutely deserves to be omitted from award show contention after Levine’s lamentations about how award shows mistreat them.

Christina Aguilera should have been bigger. Bionic was truly ahead of its time. Lotus was a pretty mediocre record, but 2010 – 2011 alone should have shot her to higher heights of fame. Had she not fucked up the National Anthem and remained skinny / touring, she would have been much more prominent.

Britney Spears needs to stop performing. Her dancing hasn’t been the same since the early 2000s.

Demi Lovato should be bigger. Her vocals are incredible. Her lack of a filter just keeps her fame from progressing to the levels of the other ex-acts. Give Your Heart a Break was an underappreciated bop.

Shawn Mendes is a truly awful singer that blatantly uses auto-tune and gimmicky vocals.

Normani > Camila. The disparity in talent is insane.

Charlie Puth ruins literally any record he is involved with. The “Easier” remix is almost unlistenable.

Billie Eilish was cool for a hot second, but she really does not sing. It’s the most gimmicked approach to creating vocals and her interviews seem to force the “tortured teenager” image to such an extreme. I understand that she has mentioned to have struggled with depression, but it seems like she overemphasizes a depressed persona and uses certain phrases to attempt to convey an underlying component that isn’t truly there.

Anne Marie and Zara Larsson deserve to be bigger. I would say the same about Mabel, but she can’t sing live.

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