[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203264474

Ugh, if we’re in for another boring sweep in all four races like 2017…

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203262929

BlackBalls wrote:

So, here’s the fact. Marriage Story won’t win a single thing. Its only chance was screenplay.

It literally just won Best Supporting Actress…

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203261374

+5 Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
+5 Adam Driver, Marriage Story
-5 Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
-5 Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (260)

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (222)

Joe Pesci, The Irishman (134)

Adam Driver, Marriage Story (126)

Renée Zellweger, Judy (112)

Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (34)

Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (9)

ELIMINATED
30) Annette Bening, The Report
29) Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette
28) Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
27) Daniel Craig, Knives Out
26) Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
25) Emma Thompson, Late Night
24) Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
23) Al Pacino, The Irishman
22) Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
21) Margot Robbie, Bombshell
20) Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
19) Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
18) Charlize Theron, Bombshell
17) Ana de Armas, Knives Out
16) Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
15) Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
14) Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
13) Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
12) Laura Dern, Marriage Story
11) Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
10) Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9) Taron Egerton, Rocketman
8) Awkwafina, The Farewell

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203259552

Adam Driver’s character reading the letter Nicole wrote him to his son > literally anything Phoenix did in Joker.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203255449

The category itself already consistently nominates filler nominees to fill the five person quota. The Musical component is not a detractor, nor is it the problem. I can’t think of a Comedy/Musical snub of any significance in recent history.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203250454

In other words, is there any chance that a C/M nominee at the Globes surprises at BAFTA and carries themselves to an Oscar win? Considering Thompson and Feldstein are strictly Globes fodder, Blanchett’s film wasn’t even submitted properly, and de Armas is likely finished, even after a potential Globe win. Awkwafina is the only possibility in Best Actress. However, she failed to acquire a SAG nomination and things aren’t looking stellar for BAFTA either, so I doubt she could pull it off. Craig and Davis got their reward with their respective Globe nominations, which leaves DiCaprio, Egerton, and Murphy. Murphy missed SAG, despite his film being fairly SAG-friendly, which doesn’t bode well for a BAFTA nod. Gold Derby has him as the frontrunner to win at the Globes, but I am fairly certain he has lost his good will with the HFPA, at least enough for a heavy campaigner (Egerton) or an industry favorite (DiCaprio) to ultimately take it. DiCaprio is likely going to be nominated at BAFTA and Oscars, considering the love for both him and Tarantino at both. However, he just won both awards for his last film, so it’s fairly unlikely he’ll claim both. The Globe is entirely feasible, but his winning streak will probably end there. Egerton, on the other hand, is another potential Globe spoiler. BAFTA will likely nominate him, given the love for British icon Elton John and his aggressive campaigning. A BAFTA win would be shocking and would definitely up his status in the race significantly, especially if Phoenix or Driver become shaky frontrunners. Unfortunately, Rocketman is probably nowhere near Best Picture contention, which would make it practically impossible for Egerton to take the Oscar.

Essentially, of the C/M Globe nominees, the only possibilities are Awkwafina (who might not even get nominated), Egerton (entirely dependent on a precursor over-performance), or DiCaprio (likeliest, but still hard to envision).

The supporting actress category don’t really align either. BAFTA doesn’t really care about Clint Eastwood, so Bates isn’t happening there. With an unlikely chance of winning the Globe, she’s probably out of contention for an Oscar win, let alone a nomination. Bening could be lucky to be nominated, given the barren category, but there is little chance she would win. With that said, her narrative is about how overdue she is, so that would be the complete opposite of a Colman win anyways. Shuzhen is fighting for a nomination at best, so she’s more equatable to Marina de Tavira in this instance. Kidman might just be a SAG thing, but if she can muster up BAFTA support, she might sneak in, albeit not for a win. Dern and Lopez are pretty safe, with Robbie slightly trailing. BAFTA will probably go for the three of them, but any shock win (i.e. Johansson in Jojo or Pugh in LW) would be insignificant, given their lack of precursor nods. Johansson stands the greatest chance of running away with it somehow, but her Best Actress bid also might hinder the likelihood of that happening, unless a general consensus of wins sets Zellweger up for a sweep and the Academy seeks to award Johansson a la Jessica Lange. Essentially, if Johansson or Pugh get in, either actress

Song Kang-ho can probably sneak in over Hopkins, but he isn’t beating Pitt’s sweep. Brown, Snipes, Foxx, and any other fringe contender is likely DOA. Pesci probably stands the greatest chance of besting Pitt, which could make for a Colman-esque win, but the heavy presence of veterans in the category only helps Pitt’s pull.

In conclusion, Pesci would be the only “passion-pick besting an overdue frontrunner.” However, Pesci would likely have to sweep the awards Pitt is expected to garner, so that would take away the frontrunner status anyways. No race is shaping up to resemble last year’s Best Actress race.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203250380

+5 Someone You Loved
+3 Shallow
+2 Sunflower
-5 Baby Shark
-2 Money
-2 Hey Look Ma, I Made It
-1 My Type

Post Malone and Swae Lee – “Sunflower” (36)

Billie Eilish – “When the Party’s Over” (33)
Luke Bryan – “Knockin’ Boots” (33)

Dan + Shay – “Speechless” (32)

Ariana Grande – “thank u, next” (30)
Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper – “Shallow” (30)

Billie Eilish – “Bury a Friend (29)

Ariana Grande – “breathin” (28)
Cardi B – “Money” (28)
Sam Smith and Normani – “Dancing with a Stranger” (28)

Juice Wrld – “Lucid Dreams” (27)
Khalid and Normani – “Love Lies” (27)

Lewis Capaldi – “Someone You Loved” (26)
Saweetie – “My Type” (26)

5 Seconds of Summer – “Youngblood” (25)
21 Savage – “a lot” (25)
A Boogie wit da Hoodie – “Look Back at It” (25)
Ariana Grande – “break up with your girlfriend, I’m bored” (25)
Ariana Grande – “7 rings” (25)
Ava Max – “Sweet but Psycho” (25)
Bad Bunny featuring Drake – “MIA” (25)
Bazzi featuring Camila Cabello – “Beautiful” (25)
Benny Blanco, Khalid & Halsey – “Eastside” (25)
Billie Eilish – “Bad Guy” (25)
Blake Shelton – “God’s Country” (25)
Blanco Brown – “The Git Up” (25)
Blueface – “Thotiana” (25)
Cardi B and Bruno Mars – “Please Me” (25)
Cardi B featuring J. Balvin & Bad Bunny – “I Like It” (25)
Calboy – “Envy Me” (25)
City Girls – “Act Up” (25)
Chris Brown featuring Drake – “No Guidance” (25)
Daddy Yankee and Katy Perry featuring Snow – “Con Calma” (25)
Dan + Shay – “All By Myself” (25)
Dan + Shay – “Tequila” (25)
DaBaby – “Suge” (25)
Dean Lewis – “Be Alright” (25)
DJ Snake featuring Selena Gomez, Ozuna & Cardi B – “Taki Taki” (25)
Drake featuring Rick Ross – “Money in the Grave” (25)
Flipp Dinero – “Leave Me Alone” (25)
Ed Sheeran and Justin Bieber – “I Don’t Care” (25)
Ed Sheeran featuring Khalid – “Beautiful People” (25)
Ella Mai – “Trip” (25)
Ellie Goulding and Diplo featuring Swae Lee – “Close to Me” (25)
Halsey – “Without Me” (25)
Gucci Mane, Bruno Mars & Kodak Black
J. Cole – “Middle Child” (25)
Jonas Brothers – “Sucker” (25)
Juice Wrld – “Robbery” (25)
Kane Brown – “Good As You” (25)
Khalid – “Better” (25)
Khalid – “Talk” (25)
Kodak Black featuring Travis Scott & Offset – “Zeze” (25)
Lauren Diagle – “You Say” (25)
Lee Brice – “Rumor” (25)
Lil Baby and DaBaby – “Baby” (25)
Lil Baby and Gunna – “Drip Too Hard” (25)
Lil Nas X – “Panini” (25)
Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus – “Old Town Road” (25)
Lil Tecca – “Ransom” (25)
Lizzo – “Truth Hurts” (25)
Luke Combs – “Beer Never Broke My Heart” (25)
Luke Combs – “Beautiful Crazy” (25)
Maroon 5 featuring Cardi B – “Girls Like You” (25)
Marshmello and Bastille – “Happier” (25)
Meek Mill featuring Drake – “Going Bad” (25)
Megan Thee Stallion featuring DaBaby – “Cash Shit” (25)
Megan Thee Stallion featuring Nicki Minaj and Ty Dolla Sign – “Hot Girl Summer” (25)
Morgan Wallace – “Whiskey Glasses” (25)
Mustard and Migos – “Pure Water” (25)
NLE Choppa – “Shotta Flow” (25)
Offset featuring Cardi B – “Clout” (25)
P!nk – “Walk Me Home” (25)
Panic! At the Disco – “High Hopes” (25)
Polo G featuring Lil Tjay – “Pop Out”
Post Malone – “Better Now” (25)
Post Malone – “Circles” (25)
Post Malone – “wow.” (25)
Sam Smith – “How Do You Sleep?” (25)
Shaed – “Trampoline” (25)
Shawn Mendes – “If I Can’t Have You” (25)
Shawn Mendes and Camila Cabello – “Señorita” (25)
Sheck Wes – “Mo Bamba” (25
Taylor Swift – “You Need to Calm Down” (25)
Travis Scott – “Sicko Mode” (25)
YNW Melly – “Murder on My Mind” (25)
Young Thug, J. Cole & Travis Scott – “The London” (25)

Post Malone featuring Young Thug – “Goodbyes” (24)
Taylor Swift featuring Brendon Urie of Panic! At the Disco – “ME!” (24)
Lil Baby – “Close Friends” (24)

Panic! At the Disco – “Hey Look Ma, I Made It” (23)
Thomas Rhett – “Look What God Gave Her” (23)
YK Osiris – “Worth It” (23)

Ariana Grande and Social House – “Boyfriend” (22)

Chase Rice – “Eyes On You” (21)

Pinkfong – “Baby Shark” (20)

Florida Georgia Line – “Talk You Out of It” (17)
A Boogie wit da Hoodie featuring 6ix9ine – “Swervin” (17)

Marshmello and Kane Brown – “One Thing Right” (12)
Jonas Brothers – “Only Human” (12)

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203240160

Lupita is solidifying her spot in the line-up. With Saoirse gaining traction as her release date gets closer, I could easily see her snatch Erivo’s spot, especially if Ronan makes BAFTA over Erivo.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203171072

The hype surrounding Joaquin reminds me vaguely of Toni Collette last year. I honestly could see him getting snubbed in a few of the places where users are predicting him to win on the basis of genre bias and if performers with upcoming films gain enough praise to generate momentum over him. However, considering that Banderas, DiCaprio, and Egerton all have had the focus earlier on, it might be hard for anyone to break out significantly in the next few weeks, besides Driver. De Niro seems to be jumping up.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203168437

I feel like the line-up will be Banderas, De Niro, DiCaprio, Driver, and Phoenix. In a perfect world, Egerton would take Phoenix’s spot for me, but we live in a world that awarded Rami Malek for lip-synching and Queen nostalgia so…

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203164456

I tend to mind my own business here, but this seemed like an effective platform to voice a complaint. I love reading GoldDerby articles, but there is a user named Adrian Khoo who comments on literally every single article. Obviously, I can simply ignore the comment section altogether, but this user seems to be blatantly commenting unnecessarily long paragraphs that lack any substantial meaning.

HammadAsif is ridiculously obnoxious though. His comments lack any substance and reiterate the same point for PAGES on end. I agree that we all should be able to voice our respective opinions, but I would have absolutely no issue if users started getting sanctioned for repeating themselves a million times with incoherent and poorly supported arguments.

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203147075

CateNicole wrote:

Wasn’t here on the forum at the time but I can’t imagine anyone thinking McDormand wouldn’t sweep with her performance in 3BB…

Everyone in that line-up (sans Meryl), at some point or another, was thought to be a spoiler. No one seemed to believe Frances was an absolute lock to sweep until she did. I remember Hawkins being the early frontrunner, until the momentum died after the Globes, with the Critics Choice Best Picture win bumping her back up, only to be flattened again at BAFTAs. It resurged slightly going into Oscar night (probs from the Shape of Water Best Picture forecasts), but McDormand ended up completing her sweep. Ronan stirred some interest following the Globes, but burned out to a solid 3rd or 4th around the time of the Oscars. Robbie surprisingly spiked following her Globe loss, with a few predicting her to surprise on Oscar night. Meryl was just kinda there for the ride, with Bening, Chastain, and Dench occasionally popping up in conversation, despite lacking awards traction. Stone was mostly ignored because she had just won and no one cared about Mirren’s chances. Michelle Williams was also in the conversation for like two days, but that was Plummer’s vehicle apparently.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203147001

I am genuinely hoping that Alfre Woodard can score a nomination. I could see Johansson, Theron, and Zellweger snagging three slots easily, but the race for the remaining two slots could be down to the nail with Ronan, Mirren, Woodard, Erivo, Nyong’o, and Awkwafina.

Zellweger is probably the most safe nominee in all voting bodies, especially the Globes and SAG, unless she has lost that affection she held firmly from 1996 – 2006 post-hiatus. Theron will definitely score a Globe nomination (with a potential easy win), since she has good will there and repeatedly secures nods. SAG and BAFTA shouldn’t be too difficult for her either. If she snags those two, she’s essentially confirmed for an Oscar nod. Johansson is less easily predictable, given her lack of awards traction in the past, but BAFTA bit twice in one go and she won without a vote split, so she clearly has some admiration there. Likewise, he has had Globe support and should be an easy name check there regardless. SAG is where the remainder of her Oscar trajectory will be determined, but her role is decent SAG bait and shouldn’t be too hard to sell.

BAFTA will be interesting, considering how often they snub non-white talent. Ronan got nominated for The Lovely Bones in 2009, so I doubt they’d ignore her. Perhaps there is room for Erivo, who could benefit from an afterglow nomination following her Rising Star nod. Mirren, if her film sticks, could sneak in essentially anywhere, considering she has been nominated by BAFTA, SAG, and the Globes for multiple different instances where she ended up falling short of an Oscar bid.

SAG could bite for Woodard, considering she has never been nominated for an individual performance in a film there. Ronan will probably be guaranteed, considering SAG will definitely usher in the cast since A) it’s an ensemble picture and B) it includes Streep. Nyong’o doesn’t seem to have any industry support, nor will her early release help. I could see her scoring a SAG nod, but Us would have to be winning Best Ensemble, which is highly unlikely. The Globes might be the only reception she gets, if that. Awkwafina will definitely score a nod at the Globes, considering how barren the Comedy submissions will be, but I don’t think BAFTA or SAG will throw her a bone.

What I foresee as the way the respective awards bodies will vote:
BAFTA:
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger
TOSS-UP: Erivo or Mirren

Golden Globes (C/M):
Awkwafina
Theron
Thompson
+ 2 additional nods (probably Booksmart girls)

Golden Globes (D):
Johansson
Ronan
Zellweger
TOSS-UP: Mirren or Nyong’o or Woodard

SAG:
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger
TOSS-UPS: Mirren or Woodard
* Awkwafina could become a passion pick here

Oscars:
Johansson
Ronan
Theron
Zellweger
TOSS-UP: Mirren or Woodard
* Erivo or Awkwafina could overperform and sneak in

Essentially, Nyong’o isn’t likely. Erivo and Awkwafina need miracle campaigns to propel themselves to higher recognition and maintain their early momentum. Woodard, who likely won’t snag a BAFTA nod, could score crucial nominations for an overdue narrative with SAG and the Globes, unless Mirren steals her needed spots. Mirren could sneak in with a good performance and good will, especially if McKellen is along for the ride. Beyond that, Johansson / Theron / Zellweger seem like locks, with Ronan right on their heels.

There also seems to be a fair share of people who assume Dern is the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress because she is on the Governor’s Board and will thus have heavy industry support. Woodard is an AMPAS board member… Just sayin.

[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203061056

The Thomasin McKenzie omission…

+4 Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
+4 Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
+2 John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
+2 Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
-6 Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
-4 Lin Manuel-Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
-2 Josh Hamilton, Eighth Grade

Rosamund Pike – A Private War (107)

Amandla Stenberg – The Hate U Give (101)

Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place (75)

Toni Collette – Hereditary (62)

Ryan Gosling – First Man (59)

Hugh Grant – Paddington 2 (47)

Lakeith Stanfield – Sorry to Bother You (41)
Jesse Plemmons – Game Night (41)

Sakura Ando – Shoplifters (37)

Ethan Hawke – First Reformed (36)

Viola Davis – Widows (28)

Elsie Fisher – Eighth Grade (26)
Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here (26)
Stephan James – If Beale Street Could Talk (26)
Steven Yeun – Burning (26)

Lin-Manuel Miranda – Mary Poppins Returns (25)

Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians (24)

Claire Foy – First Man (23)

Daniel Kaluuya – Widows (22)

John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman (21)

John Cho – Searching (20)
Daveed Diggs – Blindspotting (20)
Ruppert Everett – The Happy Prince (20)
Regina Hall – Support the Girls (20)
Kathryn Hahn – Private Life (20)
Helena Howard – Madeleine’s Madeleine (20)
Joanna Kulig – Cold War (20)
KiKi Layne – If Beale Street Could Talk (20)
Carey Mulligan – Wildfire (20)
Charlize Theron – Tully (20)
John David Washington – Monsters and Men (20)
Elizabeth Debicki – Widows (20)
Cynthia Erivo – Bad Times at the El Royale (20)
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria (20)

Danai Gurira – Black Panther (19)
Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns (19)
Josh Hamilton – Eighth Grade (19)

Ben Foster – Leave No Trace (18)

Nicole Kidman – Destroyer (16)
Zoe Kazan – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (16)
Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased (16)

Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots (15)
Natalie Portman – Vox Lux (15)

Russell Hornsby – The Hate U Give (15)

Constance Wu – Crazy Rich Asians (14)

Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk (13)

Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased (12)
Robert Redford – The Old Man & The Gun (12)
Alia Shawkat – Blaze (12)

Kayll Carter – Private Life (11)

J. Smith-Cameron – Nancy (9)

Tyne Daly – A Bread Factory (7)

Eliminated:
70) Steve Carell – Vice
69) John C. Reilly – Stan and Ollie
68) Peter Bogdanovich – The Other Side of the Wind
67) Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased
66) Chadwick Boseman – Black Panther
65) Tessa Thompson – Creed II
64) Steve Coogan – Stan & Ollie
63) Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy
62) Nick Robinson – Love, Simon
61) John C. Reilly – The Sisters Brothers
60) Christian Malheiros – Sócrates
59) Russell Crowe – Boy Erased
58) Linda Cardellini – Green Book
57) Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
56) Trine Dryholm – Nico, 1988
55) Nina Arlanda – Stan & Ollie
54) Michelle Pfiefffer – Where Is Kyra?
53) Raul Castillo – We the Animals

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[JROCK1772Participant Joined: Jul 13th, 2017 Topics: 7 Posts: 981 View Predictions]

#1203042436

I don’t personally believe Shawn to be racist, especially if the primary argument is the afro Snapchat. That post is, in no way, remotely racist. His “light skin girls >>>” tweet was a little less tasteful, but I wouldn’t deem it a blatant example of racism either. However, I would consider his documented use of the N-word in past tweets as insensitive. His apology, although fairly lackluster, seems appropriate and it would be absolutely ridiculous to crucify someone for slightly problematic behavior they exhibited when they were a teenager when he did actually take responsibility and apologized.

On the other hand, there is legitimate proof of Camila Cabello repeatedly using the N-word in a derogatory manner, specifically towards former band-mate Normani. Beyond the cyber-bullying, she also posted a rape joke a few years back. As I stated before, individuals should be given the opportunity to grow and acknowledge that their behavior was problematic. However, her “apology” from 2018 lacked any sincerity and basically articulated that she didn’t feel the need to do so because the internet is a critical place. She has truly never taken responsibility for her disgusting internet presence as a teenager and I doubt she ever will. If anyone should be receiving flack in this situation, it should be Camila. The fact that she is taken seriously as an artist by anyone is a embarrassment to the music industry.

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