Kaguya-hime
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June 12, 2021 at 4:42 am #1204297529
In the Heights is going to be in the conversation and you can’t do anything to stop it. Whether it’s going to cross the finish line is a different story. What it has going for it: Crowdpleaser. Bet against those in your own peril. This is the opposite of any indies we got last season which had lowest rated Oscars ever. Popular films like this are going to be nominated. It’s going to have amazing guild run. Why wouldn’t this get PGA and SAG, Crazy Rich Asians got those. 10 Best Picture nominees helps films like this. Its hurdles: Early release. It can’t just be a nice summer movie. It needs to be THE movie of the summer to maintain the momentum. There’s still a chance it doesn’t get any nominations. No nomination for it is locked. Picture, Supporting Actress, Editing, Cinematography, Sound and Song are on the table but not guaranteed and tough competition might kick it out. Also it has no shot to win anything. Many Picture nominees do go winless, but it doesn’t help.
I do think it’s heavily favored for a Sound nom at this point. Even if Dune, West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, and No Time to Die all make it, that’s just 4. For a 5th nominee to knock it out, we’d need something like Last Night in Soho, Annette, or Eternals being a stronger Oscar contender than In the Heights, and that seems really unlikely to me. And as far as the win goes, I think it probably can win Editing/Sound if it does really well and Dune flops (I’m not predicting it, just think that it’s possible if things line up right for it).
I think as far as nominations go that people are underrating its Best Actor chances though. Ramos has been getting raves for this, and while young male romantic leads making it isn’t common, usually they aren’t the critical standouts either. I currently have him in 6th, but I think a nomination is very possible.
If 2018 was a straight ten with the 09-10 voting method, CRA would’ve undoubtedly had been a BP nominee.
Not necessarily, Beale Street and Cold War might have been 9th and 10th.
ReplyJune 12, 2021 at 4:35 am #1204297524Claire Foy vs Elisabeth Moss teas lol. In this scenario where Smart sweeps the winter awards (which I think will be easier for her to do this time round if she wins the Emmy considering how much CCA seems to love her), I actually wonder if the race might boil down to Smart (the reigning champ and winter awards sweeper) and Applegate (final season narrative in the end). Ironically both were also on Samantha Who? together lol.
Obviously this is projecting things way too far in advance, but I’d be surprised if Applegate was contending for the win. Her show got just 4 Emmy nominations in 2020 despite being expected to get more. I honestly doubt she’d get nominated in a field of 6 against Smart, Fanning, Brosnahan, Lyonne, Rae, Cuoco, Strong, Oh, Demetriou, etc., and if she did it would likely be as a lone nom.
Is Hacks even going to be out with a second season in time though?
ReplyJune 12, 2021 at 4:29 am #1204297519I’d actually argue comedy is more competitive in Actor. Of course there’s Odenkirk and Ventimiglia and potentially someone like Jeff Bridges for his new FX show in Drama but in Comedy, Hiddleston would have to face Jason Sudeikis, Bill Hader, Donald Glover, Nicholas Hoult, the two men from Only Murders in the Building, the two What We Do in the Shadows men, perennial nominee Anthony Anderson on his final season and Don Cheadle.
It’s far too early for me to calling anything “solid” but seeing it down, 2022 Comedy Actor could be the following six without any real competition.
- Anderson
- Cheadle
- Glover
- Hader
- Hoult
- Sudeikis
There’s still a chance Only Murders might flop and Shadows (as of right now) doesn’t seem to any acting support.
There’s also Keegan-Michael Key in Schmigadoon!
ReplyJune 11, 2021 at 12:29 pm #1204296670Ok… What is show 8 than?? TFATWS, In Treatment, Perry Mason??
For All Mankind really feels like it’s being underestimated here.
This is Us is very likely to miss Series, but Milo can happen like Tracee Ellis Ross. Voters could go for a recognizable face that they’ve voted before. I also think Pose isn’t as secure in Series as people think. There was no reason to get dropped last year.
There was a great reason for Pose to get dropped last year. That reason is that the Emmys never really cared about it other than Billy Porter and some techs and it only made it in 2019 in the emptiest drama field imaginable. I’m not even convinced it was in the top 10 last year (The Morning Show was definitely ahead of it, Euphoria likely was too, and Big Little Lies and Westworld both could have been). Pose definitely could miss this year. It’s just that This Is Us, The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, In Treatment, Perry Mason, The Boys, and For All Mankind (even if I think it’s chances are underrated) don’t exactly seem that strong either.
ReplyJune 11, 2021 at 5:43 am #1204296201Unless it ends up being an undeniable frontrunner like Succession, I don’t see What We Do in the Shadows getting acting nominations so easily.
Why not? Predicting its entire cast getting nominated would be a bit much, but I don’t think Matt Berry making it over someone like Don Cheadle or the Cobra Kai guys would be that difficult.
Apart from the fact both are auteur shows I don’t see how they’re comparable awards wise even if they both do well or not. I vastly prefer Atlanta to Barry (I do still very much like Barry don’t get me wrong!) and thought Donald Glover should have won for season 2 (I’m fine with Hader’s win though because he was also very deserving) but Atlanta lost comedy series, comedy actor, comedy s. actor and comedy directing in 2018 (each of which it was tipped to win) in spite of delivering one of the most critically acclaimed seasons of a comedy of all time (97 on Metacritic, nominated for 3 TCA awards. All whilst its “auteur” was essentially the king of pop culture (remember when “This is America” topped the Billboard charts). For me Atlanta‘s loss is like if Fleabag lost to Maisel or Barry or Schitt’s Creek lost to Maisel or Insecure last year. It feels like a sign of weakness rather than strength that the most acclaimed and buzzed about comedy of the year performed worse than not one but two shows in key above the line categories. Barry on the other hand was facing Fleabag which was an unstoppable phenomenon that won TCA and like Atlanta the previous year and delivered one of the most acclaimed seasons of a comedy ever. Likewise Phoebe Waller-Bridge was the moment with a capital M. She was the executive producer and head writer on the first season of Killing Eve and Fleabag was already developing a lot of audience and critical buzz when its second season aired in the UK before it dropped on Amazon in the US in May of that year. Barry‘s loss to it is excusable considering it had very little chance in the first place at stopping Fleabag and any chance it did have evaporated completely the moment Bill Hader started actively campaigning for Phoebe Waller-Bridge during interviews lol. Likewise it had a bigger surge in nominations than Atlanta did (particularly with the actors branch) and Hader still won in spite of a competitive field. I do still think both will do very well in nominations (especially in acting) but in light of this I feel like it’s evident that Barry is a far stronger show awards wise than Atlanta. It seems to have more audience backing than Atlanta does and it still performed quite well last time round at the Emmys in spite of not managing to overcome the titan that was Fleabag. I fear on the other hand that the fact Atlanta couldn’t overcome Maisel in series last time round or even overcome Barry in either actor or s. actor might suggest that it’s a show that is more respected than loved. A bit like Fargo. I feel like someone like Zazie Beatz and Sarah Goldberg are in the same position in the sense that both deliver strong worthy supporting performances that don’t have enough passion to win over performances like Alex Borstein’s or Hannah Waddingham’s in spite of their shows arguably being stronger contenders. But other than that I don’t really see much crossover in the type of support both Atlanta and Barry have.
I agree for the most part about the Fargo comparison, but I’d add 2 things onto that.
First, Fargo got 4 acting nominations for Season 1 and Season 2 each and 3 for Season 3. Fargo being more respected than love and getting support for nominations more than wins hasn’t really stopped its cast from being nominated, and I don’t think Atlanta being in a similar position would stop Stanfield from being nominated either (especially in a field of 8).
Second, as far as the Barry and Atlanta comparisons go, here’s what they have in common.
1. Breakout first seasons where they win Comedy Actor while losing to a female-led comedy series.
2. Second seasons where they do even better with nominations off the back of a ton of acclaim, but fail to win anything other than a single acting award and 2 techs despite being considered contenders to win much more. Both shows were arguably in third place for their second seasons.
3. Long gaps between their second and third seasons.
4. Being pretty different in tone from the typical comedy series winner.
I just don’t think there’s much indication that Barry isn’t in a similar position of being widely-respected but not having the support for a series win. Yes, it was up against a big passion pick in Fleabag, but that’s still no excuse for why it failed to win the acting or tech categories against other shows. And in any case, it seems safer to bet on either the incumbent series winner winning again or a different contender becoming the passion pick instead of betting on a show that clearly wasn’t the passion pick in 2019 and probably wouldn’t have been one in 2020 over Schitt’s Creek either.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 4:14 pm #1204295620Just because you’re an Oscar nominee it doesn’t mean you get nominated for an Emmy lol. Personally I just don’t see how Atlanta does so well when it couldn’t even win against Maisel when it was at a critical and visibility high. I still think it will get a bunch of nominations but it has to be undeniable imo for it to dominate in nominations or to be an upper tier win competitive contender. Especially when Barry, The Great and What We Do in the Shadows are all there as rising contenders, there are new shows like The Chair and even something like Maisel is there.
I think Barry and Atlanta are in pretty much exactly the same place. They’re well-respected and acclaimed shows that will drop their long-awaited third seasons, be hyped up as big contenders, be nominated across the board, and then ultimately lose almost every category to newer, more traditionally comedic contenders like Ted Lasso, The Great, What We Do in the Shadows, and maybe even some of the newer stuff like Schmigadoon! and The Chair (as well as maybe Russian Doll, I have no idea where they’ll go from Season 1 since the story seemed completely wrapped up). I think they have the passion for nominations, but I don’t think they have enough support to win big unless they make some changes from their second seasons.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 3:50 pm #1204295586I think he’ll probably stay in supporting and him and Annie Murphy will be the show’s big supporting pushes.
I know you don’t have much faith in it. Don’t see why though. Stanfield is a rising star Oscar nominee after all.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 3:39 pm #1204295563He was campaigned and nominated in lead at the winter awards.
Good to know, thanks. That does seem like it could potentially lead to a Shalhoub win if he ends up in a field with 2 Barry nominees, 2 Ted Lasso nominees, 2 Atlanta nominees, and an SNL nominee. I also wouldn’t be surprised though if Ted Lasso just got a single supporting nomination in the category next year (we’re only predicting 3 because the year is empty), and if whoever it was won it.
Do you think that Charlie Barnett will be in supporting again or will they upgrade him to lead (since he basically was a co-lead for the second half of the show after he was introduced).
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 3:36 pm #1204295559SERIES 1. Succession 2. Ozark 3. Better Call Saul 4. Killing Eve 5. House of the Dragon 6. Loki 7. The Morning Show 8. Stranger Things ACTOR 1. Brian Cox, Succession 2. Jeremy Strong, Succession 3. Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul 4. Jason Bateman, Ozark 5. Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us 6. Tom Hiddleston, Loki ACTRESS 1. Sandra Oh, Killing Eve 2. Jodie Comer, Killing Eve 3. Zendaya, Euphoria 4. Laura Linney, Ozark 5. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show 6. Mandy Moore, This Is Us SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Billy Crudup, The Morning Show 2. Kieran Culkin, Succession 3. Matthew Macfadyen, Succession 4. Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul 5. Tony Dalton, Better Call Saul 6. Owen Wilson, Loki 7. Matt Smith, House of the Dragon 8. David Harbour, Stranger Things SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Julianna Margulies, The Morning Show 2. Julia Garner, Ozark 3. Sarah Snook, Succession 4. Fiona Shaw, Killing Eve 5. Hiam Abbass, Succession 6. Olivia Cooke, House of the Dragon 7. Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age 8. Cynthia Nixon, The Gilded Age
I don’t get why you’re predicting that Succession and The Morning Show will do worse in supporting actor than they did last time in favor of Stranger Things and Better Call Saul (which they beat out last time in the category) and Loki.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 3:33 pm #1204295544Hoult is lead
Wasn’t he campaigned in supporting last time? Are they changing that?
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 2:14 pm #1204295401I agree %100 it was a perfect debut season. The tone reminds me so much of Veep with its insults and dark humour. But Hacks for me has had a stronger start than Veep did but Veep found its perfect tone in all the following season and is one of my favourite shows of all time. With the perfect season Hacks has had I have no doubt it will follow in the illustrious footsteps of Veep and reach that same echelon of Television. But my God Jean Smart is truly giving her best Performance here, which is saying something because every performance of hers is something special, but as Deborah she just chews the screen and everyone on it and spits them out while throwing out zingers left, right and center, she is Deborah Vance and I have a feeling she may very well follow Julia Louis-Dreyfus (who gave an iconic and masterclass of a performance as Selina Meyer) awards trajectory and everything would be deserving. I cannot wait for the next season.
I doubt that the JLD awards trajectory can really be repeated. JLD benefitted a lot from a complete lack of competition after her first couple years. Parks and Rec was never liked enough by the Emmys for Poehler to beat her, Inside Amy Schumer wasn’t even strong enough to consistently win the variety categories, and outside of that her strongest competition was Tracee Ellis Ross and Ellie Kemper, who were never even close to being threats for the win. The female acting categories are a lot stronger now that the Emmys are consistently dominated by female-led shows, which will make Smart winning more than a couple times hard to pull off.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 1:53 pm #1204295362I just watched the trailer for The Eyes of Tammy Faye again. I’m beginning to think it could be The United States vs Billie Holiday of this season. The transformation here could be too strong to ignore.
It definitely needs to be better than Billie Holiday to make it, since Billie Holiday made it against almost no competition (6th place was either Amy Adams in a panned supporting role in a panned movie or Yeri Han with no precursors). It probably will be better though. Chastain has a good shot.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 12:15 pm #1204295177I think if Fleabag wasn’t competing that JLD would have won considering how she would have had the biggest narrative that year (PWB had an “only chance narrative” and her show was a pop-cultural phenomenon). I do think Brosnahan was probably third though.
I think you’re overrating how much the Emmys care about narratives. I can really only think of 2 wins that were largely helped by narratives that went beyond people just loving a show or performance: Winkler’s win for Barry and Hamm’s win for Mad Men (and even for Hamm, his performance was the most acclaimed in his category and in the strongest series contender in his category). And giving JLD a 7th Emmy so that she could break some records is not something I think people really cared about. She only really got to that many Emmys for Veep due to a lack of competition anyways. The only times other than 2019 when she was up against someone in a stronger series contender than her were in 2012 and 2013, the first two years she won (and I guess arguably in 2014 when she beat Taylor Schilling). Her 4th, 5th, and 6th wins all came when she was in the series winner and the only competition she had from series nominees was Amy Poehler, Tracee Ellis Ross, and Ellie Kemper (and Amy Schumer in a different series category). Of course she was going to keep winning. That doesn’t mean the Emmys were going to give her a 7th win over people in much stronger series contenders.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 11:41 am #1204295055I preferred Rachel Brosnahan to Phoebe Waller-Bridge that year but I don’t think she was a clear second whoo would have won without Fleabag in the equation. I think JLD could have won instead.
Veep underperformed so much in 2019 though. It lost about half of its nominations from 2017 (it only got 9 nominations), missed directing entirely despite getting 3 nominations in the category in 2017 and 2016, and won 0 Emmys. I’m not even convinced JLD was ahead of Lyonne, and I’m pretty confident she wasn’t ahead of Brosnahan.
ReplyJune 10, 2021 at 11:37 am #1204294994Russian Doll should have swept in 2019 (although I do still stand by my view that JLD should have won Actress lol).
I slightly prefer Fleabag, but both are essentially perfect seasons of tv, a Russian Doll sweep would have been excellent.
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