[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205354564

Outside of Killers of the Flower Moon, I don’t know how to evaluate the streamer movies for 2024. If the box office stays steady or improves this year on the whole, I wonder if there will be some built-in bias against some of them.

Curious if anyone has any thoughts about what Netflix’s order of priority might be. I assume Maestro and Rustin will be where they spend the most of their money. The Killer could go either way, but it will be watched regardless because it’s Fincher and it will get below-the-line attention.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205352873

P(oweR) Valley wrote:

Angela being in Marvel film had nothing to with her losing at this point. EEAAO was just that much of a juggernaut and caused a bunch of presumed frontrunners to go home emptyhanded. It was just that big of a juggernaut and we probably won’t see another for a very long time. Who’s to say that Angela wasn’t right behind JLC in final voting?

I actually think Angela could’ve comfortably been 2nd. I’d love to see how well Hsu did also.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205352871

As bummed as I was about Curtis’s win, comedic performances need to be given a better chance with awards

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205352863

My vote would be Laura Linney

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205352055

I’m very interested in the director race next year. Scorsese has a good chance on paper, but I wonder if voters will be turned off by the subject matter or will think it’s too plodding. Nolan and Cooper obviously have a lot of baggage as directors.

I think Oppenheimer will need a very particular campaign. All Quiet had much more of a European-centric antiwar message that took them far. If the Oppenheimer campaign focuses more on the spectacle of the filmmaking, it could also rub people the wrong way.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205350796

I liked all of the Original Song performances and it was cool that all 5 were so different. Lift Me Up sounded much better live than the recording. I also give Gaga a lot of credit for pulling that performance together with her filming schedule.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205350570

Top 5

Adapted Screenplay – Sarah Polley, Women Talking. This is the best screenplay win in years. I don’t think I’ll ever fully come to terms with how this film fared this year, but Polley – as humble as she is – was so deserving. This was the only win I cared about and I had switched to All Quiet for a few hours yesterday. So glad I came to my senses (or chose to hopedict for my life lol).

Picture – Everything Everywhere All at Once. I don’t see this film marking a “change in the Academy” either way. This film’s success is a testament to how a lot of Academy voters want to see something original succeed, and this film passed that test with flying colors. While I wouldn’t have given it Director or Original Screenplay, I always thought it fairly deserved this. The passion this film has sustained for a year with a multigenerational group of fans is inspiring. I want people to want to go to the movies and this film played a part in that.

Costume Design – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.  I had this winning for a while and then sadly changed to Elvis, but I’m really glad Carter won for this. It would’ve been easy to recycle costumes, but she didn’t. The degree of difficulty of crafting new costumes after Boseman’s death also deserve some credit. Everything Bassett wears in this is a showcase.. And given the reaction in the room, she is clearly beloved. This was a good representative win for the film and her speech was one of my favorites.

Actress – Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once. My favorite acting win of the three for the film. It’s been annoying to see the merits of her performance fall by the wayside as the season went on, and I wish the campaign had kept that in the conversation in addition to the history-making because she’s so moving and impressive in the film. I love Cate Blanchett, think she absolutely should have 3 Oscars, and when the time comes she will have a set of wins that would rival anyone’s (even with the one for The Aviator lol). But the strength of EEAAO’s run begins and ends with Michelle and it would’ve felt wrong for Picture (and Curtis) to win and for her to lose. As a side note I was happy Riseborough came and seemed overjoyed when Yeoh’s name was called.

Sound – Top Gun: Maverick. I think I liked this film more than a good chunk of GoldDerby folks but it just felt wrong for it to win nothing. The Sound win ended up being a good representative one, certainly something the film excels at and there were quite a few people standing up. With the chokehold All Quiet had below the line, this was a little bit of a miracle.

Bottom 5

Best Documentary Feature – Navalny. Overall, this film isn’t that impressive. Without the phone call scene, there isn’t much to this at all. I would’ve preferred any of the other 4.

Best Original Screenplay – Everything Everywhere All at Once. So many of the anonymous ballots focus too much on the word “original” and not on the word “best.” EEAAO didn’t need this award. I wanted this for McDonagh, but I would’ve even preferred to see TAR. Those are two films that showcase screenwriting much more successfully and I’d like to see Picture detach from the screenplay categories overall (see Women Talking).

Best Cinematography – All Quiet on the Western Front. I think TAR deserved to win one of Editing or Cinematography given the lineups in those categories, and this win for All Quiet just felt particularly uninspired.

Best Production Design – All Quiet on the Western Front. I get that voters hated Babylon. I didn’t love it either, and I can forgive Score because there were other great selections there and it retreads on La La Land’s music. But I really do think it deserved this win, and it’s a shame when people just blanket vote for their favorite film below the line.

Best Supporting Actress – Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once. There were so many clips of the other contenders after Curtis’s win and I just got increasingly more nauseous that they lost to her. But clearly a Curtis vote united the EEAAO lovers and the EEAAO haters just because both groups love her.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205345919

The BAFTAs are dead as a precursor you heard it here first

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205345138

laslo wrote:

Really can’t believe Michelle Yeoh served the entire season with Schiaparelli and Armani just to go with basic Dior at the Oscars…

This is her worst look I fear. She should’ve saved the dress from the Indie Spirits

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205344989

lmao they must be like “let’s get this over with”

The first category being presented at the #Oscars is Best Supporting Actress. pic.twitter.com/gVOl8iHMl8

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) March 12, 2023

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205344610

nevkm wrote:

Her raw magnetism in this movie… Villanelle would tremble.  

The cinematography in TAR has gone painfully underrewarded this season.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205344579

Butz wrote:

I need Makeup and Actor to split just so people can realize that there is no such thing as a makeup stat in Best Actor. Unfortunately, it won’t happen this year.

It could happen next year with Maestro!

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205344574

I still think Bassett got more votes than the SAG/BAFTA misses would suggest. Honestly none of Condon/Curtis/Bassett feel right to me and I think there are Oscar gatekeeping types of arguments for all 3. It would be hilarious if Bassett somehow pulled it off just to show that the precursors we rely so much on can fail under the jury system.

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205340500

If that voter thinks through hearsay that Top Gun is winning Adapted Screenplay, that category is surely split more than we know lol

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[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1856 View Predictions]

#1205338774

LawC wrote:

If Bullock hadn’t won before, I wholeheartedly believe that she’d have won over Blanchett.

I can’t see this at all. The feeling back then was very much that Blanchett deserves to have Oscar in Lead and it was pretty intense.