[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004741

probablyROB wrote:

Leaving out Better Call Saul feels bold to me. Despite the many glaring snubs over the years the one category they’ve never missed in is series. And this season feels highly acclaimed as usual with a swell of love coming for Odenkirk after his close call. I’d be pretty shocked if it missed out in series. The other two I could see going either way because how competitive the field is right now.

I may well live to regret it. I have it 9th. It’s nothing personal towards BCS, I just think the press has largely been focused on harnessing the actors branch.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004725

JV wrote:

there’s not many female ensemble shows this season so it could benefit from that demographic.

This is one of my major rationales. Some people (including, clearly, voters) really enjoy female ensembles or female-heavy ensembles

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004714

Benjamonster86 wrote:

Hahaha whoops

To be fair she is filming a series for Apple TV at the moment so she will be eligible next year.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004708

probablyROB wrote:

We have the same predictions now except I have Euphoria getting in ahead of Stranger Things but I am seriously doubting that now since Stranger Things seems immovable. I still think Euphoria might make it in though which would mean dropping This Is Us or Yellowjackets. Maybe we’ll get 9 nominees this year.

I have:

Succession

Squid Game

Ozark

Yellowstone

Yellowjackets

The Morning Show

Severance

I have This Is Us, Better Call Saul, and Euphoria getting acting nominations only largely because I feel their FYC has been very performer focused.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004651

Random feelings around 2023:

Other years I’ve felt like I could predict pre-nominations for the prior year. Now, I’m not so sure. Especially with limited.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004642

Still not sure around The Rings of Power, but new teaser.

A new teaser for ‘Lord of the Rings: #TheRingsOfPower’ has been released. pic.twitter.com/mP0sMRmxMr

— Cinema Solace (@solacecinema) July 6, 2022

 

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004608

I noticed in the odds when no one knows what to do they immediately default to Oscar nominees.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004606

ivostoyanov wrote:

I don´t think that both Yellow shows are going to made it into Drama, so I decided to go for Yellowjackets and I removed Yellowstone, Rob convinced me, I have to admit it. Of course, I might be wrong, but I do think that Succession, Squid Game, This is us, Ozark, Better Call Saul, Stranger Things and Severance are all in.

I think people have some really excellent  points on Yellowstone but I’m going to play the odds and keep them in.

 

 

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004434

probablyROB wrote:

Maybe they should have done more for it but I think them putting it after Dexter was just them cheaply showing faith. I do believe Yellowjackets was helped by their placement on the schedule.

Oh, I think they had commercial faith in it certainly. I agree with that. And on that level it was very much helped by Dexter.

 

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004416

probablyROB wrote:

Getting nominated at all given the circumstances is a win.

I hate to say it, but I don’t actually think Showtime really realised entirely what they had with Yellowjackets. They probably wouldn’t have scheduled it the way they had otherwise. I’m pretty sure they were banking on Hall for Dexter.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004357

Ed_Distasio_1 wrote:

I think people are. Doubting. Austin butler  winning cause they do t want to see a movie about a white rock star win best actor

I think an account that basically only posts support for Austin Butler repeatedly may be a little biased but hey what do I know

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004345

alittle03 wrote:

Sarah Snook 2024 win incoming.

How long were they in post last time? That’s cutting it very fine, especially given we’re still in a pandemic (even eight episodes would require them to debut by April 8).

Perhaps HBO will do Westworld/House of The Dragon/(guessing) Perry Mason/The Last of Us?

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004343

Benjamonster86 wrote:

I think it will probably go comedy too but that seems very much like a mistake. I did see that As We See It is submitting as drama this year (though unlikely to get anything) and that certainly has more comedy than The Bear and similar episode lengths. But different platform so may not make sense as a comparison.

I think given that’s running in 2022 it would have had to have gotten approval, I think as of 2023 they’re allowed to make their own decisions?

I would note that SAG rules allow a longer comedy to run but not a 30 minute drama, so a short drama would like be disincentivized by that.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004331

Bee wrote:

I doubted how much Abbott would impact the nominations some time ago but now I feel like its buzz is too through the roof to just do the bare minimum. Theoretically it could just be relegated to 4 major noms but it’s being pushed so hard and has a socially relevant message on the education system.

I think this is perspective. I don’t really think it’s the bare minimum. Cases like Ted Lasso aren’t normal, in fact they’re highly abnormal. For what Abbott is (a network show with a budget not necessarily designed to be an awards player) I think four nominations ATL is great.

X

Reply

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 23 Posts: 5500 View Predictions]

#1205004326

alittle03 wrote:

I would also say The Bear is definitely a drama, but it has its comedic moments here and there. If it touched the Emmys, though, it’d probably be submitted under Comedy and I think it’s because of the episode lengths rather than the genre? I’m not entirely sure how it works, so I’d love some correction here if I’m wrong. But yeah, every episode except the finale is around 25-ish minutes, so I’m not sure how it’d work when it’s time to campaign.

I take everyone’s point about the tone!

From the recent rule change:

Comedy/drama series minimum: 20 minutes minimum 6 episodes. Once established: 3 (i.e Stranger Things is not eligible in drama)

Everything else  less is Short Form

Limited series: minimum 150 minutes/2 episodes

For below the line:

Half hour 20-40

Hour 40-75 (I don’t know what the deal is with this crazy length eps)

Also – and maybe I missed this before –  “period” for crafts is considered 25 years prior to the current Emmy Year on Jan 1

(so pre 1997)

(I feel old now)

So my understanding is you can be a comedy and compete in hour long BTL going forward or vice versa (the most obvious candidate for this is Netflix’s Wednesday, which is very crafts heavy and I think will probably compete in comedy but hour long BTL).

X

Reply