[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205413221

Heptapod wrote:

SUCCESSION (18) – Series, Culkin, Strong, Snook, Braun, Cox, Macfadyen, Ruck, Smith-Cameron, Writing, Directing x3, Cromwell, Moayed, Abbass, Jones, Walter

Reaaaaaaaally want Cox to go guest because damn, if Braun makes it in & Ruck doesn’t, I will burn something down.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205413214

wolfali wrote:

Ella Purnell, Yellowjackets

Rooting for this as restitution for last season lol. She’s so good.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205413210

I’m clearly a huuuge Keeley-apologist. I 100% agree with the fact that the writers are fucking up with their female characters rn, but

…although I don’t care much for her storyline…but I don’t hate it either? I actually prefer it to some of the other schlockier stuff, all the I-know-how-this-will-end stuff. And despite all the hate, I am almost a littttttle relieved I don’t constantly have to hear endless praise about her scene partner (Goldstein in particular) and barely gets comparable credit, so in that sense I’m a little glad she has some separation.

Maybe it’s bc I’m such a Juno Temple fan. I do think they’re giving her short shrift overall, but imo Keeley is FUNDAMENTAL to Ted Lasso. She’s genuinely kind, genuinely smart, genuinely sensible, genuinely warm—all those things without tipping over into the fantastical tinge of sweetness in so many characters. It’s strange to call her the straight man, because she’s so funny, but she’s like…the closest thing I’ve seen to a real person on the show. She’s just plausibly wonderful (like, really, she’s really way too nice and accommodating on many occasions, but I’m guessing most people don’t see it that way. Who sits down to talk to their ex’s niece after they’ve been broken up with?! Keeley apparently.) I really think the show needs her more low-key, grounded brand of goodness to truly work, and in lesser hands people would have dismissed her from the get-go as a variation of MPDG (I don’t buy the trope, but find it useful to explain my point here…or not).

But…idk. This is a weird show lol. I love it but I often can’t stand by it. I really can’t say any of the episodes this season have been GREAT TV.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205413176

alittle03 wrote:

Yeah, my only gripe with the show is Greg. He kinda just feels there this season and Braun’s excruciating bumbling deliveries are not helping.

Because I watched the first 3 seasons on a binge & not in real time, I have to say……… I kinda always saw Greg this way? I feel like every season he just gets more obnoxious and I really don’t see why Nicholas Braun gets the acclaim he does. He’s good. He’s fine. He’s not particularly nomination-worthy. It makes so little sense to me that the character utilized for the broadest comedy on a show that is all about dark humor & vicious comebacks that reflect in character-specific ways somehow has had Braun landing in the Drama Supporting Actor category…

I am shocked and surprised that it took so long for Ruck to show up as a potential contender. I don’t get why he’s low in the odds: some of the lines he’s delivered this season are amongst the most devastating lines I’ve heard on the show. His reaction was the most understated and sad, his whole…thing is just awesome. Idk why it took the show so long to do something with his character. I always knew him as a veteran TV actor who is very good, but until this season I basically forgot that lol :/

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205412222

I’ve always found Black Mirror’s nominations in TV movie quite bizarre. This is so obviously an anthology show: even if it’s an uneven season, it’s always deserved a Limited Series nod for me. Hope the actors aren’t limited to a submission from one episode or something, I’d hate that.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205412219

kat_ebbs wrote:

Snook is very pregnant and doesn’t permanently live in the US (she’s due somewhere between now and the finale airing). She may quite reasonably chose to not have to FYC for a lead campaign for practical reasons.

Feel like it would be a cakewalk even without. Lynskey is fantastic, but in a muuuuuch bigger ensemble, and imo is riding the wave of a big monologue because it’s so fractured across a million characters. So if Snook moves, I think it should be a slamdunk. She’s just been so bloody brilliant. Culkin is a strong 2nd for me this season, and Ruck is on fire, but even if there’s no sweep (I think there will be), Snook HAS to be the one. Like…oof, c’mon plsss Emmyyysss

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205412217

I felt like I could count at least 6 different vibes/palettes in the trailer i.e. 6 episodes? At least? I truly hope I’m not wrong, I always want more more more lol

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205412211

CuriousHedgehog wrote:

my thing with Tawny is that I love her performance but Tai just has such weak material this season so far imo.

Personally, I think Tawny Cypress has always had the material to be nominated. Her storylines aren’t always the most interesting but Taissa is a fantastic character…

The problem for Cypress, and I do not at all intend to be ungenerous when she’s really quite good, is that I think Jasmin Savoy Brown carries Tai so much more. With Nelisse & Lynskey, Hanratty & Ricci, there’s a wonderful match. Same with the others, but Savoy Brown… I mean… she’s just REALLY good, and it has always felt a little lopsided there for me personally 🙁

alittle03 wrote:

Thought it was just me. I share this exact same opinion. Lewis was phenomenal last season, but her performance feels really off for me so far, this time around.

I agree actually, but I have a strong feeling that it’s ramping up. Nat is caught up in a lot of storylines and is the one they’re converging to (well, Lottie technically, but you know what I mean). I would hope she gets a true showcase.

Honestly, the pacing of this show has been irritating me a little of late. They’re doing too much in every episode. Now with 6 adult survivors + stories with Callie & Jeff + all the teens + Ben + the new characters, it’s made for uneven episodes in my opinion. I still love this show obviously but it’s gotten to a point where I feel like Christina Ricci (who can never do any wrong by me) hasn’t gotten material I enjoy enough. It’s…fun, yes. And the characterization is so sharp that she deserves a nomination for sure but I haven’t truly loved the comedic jaunt she’s been set off on with Walter.

As an aside, I think Sophie Thatcher & Liv Hewson have been awesome this season. Courtney Eaton as well. All the teen characters have been played beautifully imo, there’s a strong argument that in some cases (not just Tai) they’re doing more nomination-worthy work but won’t get them because they’re not the bigger stars. Most obvious case being Nelisse.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205202077

Wow this question is so huge. How many hours do we have? Mm most recently TAR, Triangle of Sadness, Memoria, Mank, Promising Young Woman, Little Women (2019), The Salesman, Another Round, Blade Runner 2049…. and more.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205202062

Bonehead Is Afraid wrote:

I don’t know about winning Best Picture yet, but what if The Banshees of Inisherin overperforms and gets bunch of tech noms in addition to Director, Screenplay, and 4 Acting noms?

I’m starting to think it could end up being the nomination leader.

Possible… but idk as of now I can see it being neck in neck with EEAAO or The Fabelmans. I think it might be too early. I didn’t see TPOTD being the nominations leader until just before and even when it happened I was surprised Belfast or WSS weren’t closer. Idk which film will run the table with the crafts like TPOTD did. Ultimately you rack those up with a combo of acting (a max of 4 for Banshees & EEAOO, and 3 for The Fabelmans?) and crafts. I thought Dune would lead with 11 even without acting nods, didn’t expect it to get snubbed in Director and TPOTD surprised with Plemons, Production Design, Sound.

There’s also the issue of the techs having more big films that are predicted to have a shot for BP. Last year only had Dune, really. I highly doubt Avatar 2, Top Gun, Elvis and Babylon are ALL going to dominate in crafts? What’s the max we think there?

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205202053

ejaru1810 wrote:

She Said (WINNER)
Women Talking (RUNNER UP)

What is this, Opposite Day?

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205202051

nevkm wrote:

Dallas-Fort Worth critics winners (the oracle )

Honestly, these are very very very much in line with what I think will actually happen, at least in Director, Actor, Actress & S. Actor. Can’t predict myself to predict them but we have to admit that like last year (for a while, there was some doubt if Nightmare Alley, Don’t Look Up, and even CODA had the broad support to make it in because they were received with divisive-to-meh reviews. Hell, CODA wasn’t taken anywhere near as seriously as even King Richard. Drive My Car was the opposite i.e. the critical push). So…yeah, surprises will happen. But the top 6 feel pretty darn safe to me. They have their defenders, they’ll make it. And the rankings also feel eerily right (maybe Top Gun: Maverick is #2 or something but that’s the only thing idk)

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. TÁR
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. Women Talking

We still don’t have a critical fave that wasn’t already in the race being vaunted into predix. I haven’t followed all discussion but I assume people aren’t buying RRR? Because it keeps showing up consistently, even in runners-up ^

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205202014

Danielle Deadwyler
Paul Mescal
Stephanie Hsu
Jeremy Pope
Jessie Buckley
Claire Foy
Ben Whishaw
Barry Keoghan
Dolly de Leon
Nina Hoss
Thuso Mbedu

Then it gets to zero-traction:
Dakota Johnson (Cha Cha Real Smooth)
Aubrey Plaza (Emily the Criminal)
Taylor Russell (Bones and All)
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)

Listing just because it’s obvious why they have no traction and yet I want to do it anyway lol, especially in a year where I find almost no Oscar contender films come close to the wealth we got in international films
Song Kang-Ho (Broker)
Zar Amir-Ebrahimi (Holy Spider)
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Edem Dambrine (Close)
Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)
Ali Junejo, Alina Khan (Joyland)
Daniel Gimenez Cacho (Bardo)

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

X

Reply

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205201994

Agreed, Triangle of Sadness is messy and atrocious. The film’s only saving grace is Dolly Le Leon, I wouldnt mind her getting a nomination but everything else about it sucked.

Agreed, unfortunately. I’ve actually come to love The Square, but Triangle of Sadness is messy in…the wrong way lol. I don’t think Ostlund’s making in-roads at AMPAS for this one. De Leon’s great though.

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun

[kaziz Joined: Nov 10th, 2011 Topics: 3 Posts: 4965 View Predictions]

#1205201403

crabbie wrote:

The Daniels getting nominated is a toss-up. One thing that helps them though is that EEAAO is basically dominating director at the regionals when they typically go for the more highbrow pick (in this case, Todd Field) and the Best Picture win (albeit a tie) at LAFCA is nothing to scoff at. Who knows where the tide will turn at this point; the directors branch is so fickle.

I totally get why it’s a toss-up. Buttttt EEAAO just seems to have sooo much momentum and yes yes I know the STATS need to go but it’ll feel super hard for it to win BP if it doesn’t get into BD especially when I don’t believe (correct me if I’m wrong) it’s likely to win screenplay?

Plus, yes, I do believe TPOTD was hurt by the never-ending season last year so if it’s a frontrunner (I think it is?) thennnn

FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Women Talking
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Joyland
RRR
Aftersun