Absolutely can see SAG Ensemble, even if it fails to score any individual SAG noms. Ehle, Clarkson, Morton, Braugher, Kazan all have critically or FT touted moments, but Mulligan looks to be a strong MVP – but what will Universal do about her category placement, in light of its purported push for M. Williams in lead?

Thanks for the warning – yeah QC is a bit lacking over there.

The film’s reviews are making a striking case for a SAG ensemble nom.

Yeah, anyone who was dismissing either Oscar chances for Till or She Said because they were bowing at NYFF has had to reconsider.

Agreed – if Sandler can be a dark horse don’t see why Fiennes can’t be.

I think the analogous win for Hirsch would be Ben Johnson – compare either with Cooper’s arch lampooning in Licorice Pizza and you’ll see what I mean.

yep let’s stop the revisionism right now – CODA as a whole was being dismissed or downplayed a year ago – it was the Kodi show.

As Good as It Gets wasn’t nominated for director.

Yes, I think Berger has a strong shot, stronger than even Rian Johnson, the man in the director’s chair behind NFLX’s top contender atm.

I’ll go for Thirteen Lives, which I figure Amazon will be pushing hard behind the scenes. It does have some of the strongest “steak eater” word of mouth of any film this year. But can it rally?

Searchlight FYC site is live

Confirms the reports:

Banshees in original screenplay

Gleeson in supporting

Empire of Light’s Ward in supporting

Chevalier bumped to 2023

Also:

Fiennes is lead in Menu, Hoult supporting

Robbie vs Mulligan in supporting as they swoop in to the void created by Williams’s exit – very plausible!

Pundit lingo such as “stlll processing” always feels like a cop out.

indeed, Elvis only needed not to flop – mission accomplished.

Fiennes >>>>>>>> Harrelson

The Menu >>>>> ToS

;

Lazy namechecking is the most likely culprit. The Menu’s Fiennes has a much stronger shot.

I could see Triangle getting no noms. Though would love to see its slot go to the superior The Menu.

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I have an idea – the Prediction Center’s traditionally poor QC

GD prediction center categorisation is highly unreliable / go with your gut! Nine out of 10 times you’ll be right (and GD will take a long time to catch up).

Why is “Aftersun” not in the predictions center?

And also why isn’t The Inspection??

Figure this is because the GD admins have to save the room for Poor Things, Shirley and Disappointment Blvd.🤷‍♂️

But seriously Aftersun is ready to take off and A24 sending it to Telluride, TIFF and NYFf -I suspect the critics will rally round this one come…[Read more]

THR Awards Analysis: ‘Women Talking’ Already a Critics’ Darling, But Will the Oscars Embrace It?

— my Spidey sense, honed over many years of studying and covering the Academy, is that this film is going to be a tough sell to Oscar voters.—