Plagued by groupthink – after granddaddy NYFCC (b. 1935) went for DMC the wannabe upstarts in LA (b. 1975) and NSFC (b. 1966) – both founded as alternatives to the much-envied NY group – had to either copy or one-up NY’s top prize / they chose to fall in line.

VANITY FAIR: CODA writer-director Sian Heder had to fight for years to make her groundbreaking movie the right way. With the Oscars around the corner, she’s still being underestimated.

VF: In the context of this season, CODA gets talked about as more of a “crowd-pleaser,” or feel-good movie. I know you’ve spoken a little bit about that and som…

[Read more]

NY Mag’s Vulture Updates “Oscar Futures”

Vulture appears to have settled in to a pattern of tweak-and-retweak in his predix refreshes, adding some film or some performer one week only to remove them the next. (For example, BTR returns after being bumped out for Spider-Man, which has been evicted in this installment.)

Ruth Negga is again back…[Read more]

LA Times refreshes its major-category Oscar predix – I’ll take CCJ in 6th any day.

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/awards/story/2021-11-19/oscars-2022-buzzmeter-surveys-the-awards-season-to-come

MGM does seem itchy about the prospects for Cyrano in front of a general audience. The dismal box office performances of In the Heights, Dear Evan Hansen
and West Side Story certainly must weigh heavily there. Though I think this recent article means to say Feb. 25 for the new U.K. release…[Read more]

The BP, BD and writing nom buzz for Spencer always seemed off base to me, and of course that doesn’t have to translate into hurting the odds of Stewart in the Oscar race any more than the lack of such broader buzz for Judy, Respect or The Eyes of Tammy Faye has derailed their leading actresses’ chances. But now, it seem that the “industry”…[Read more]

Of course not, which is why i every year i virtually ignore the ever-expanding lists of critics’ group tallies as an indicator of actual Oscar futures. I nod to NBR and the “trifecta” out of historical reverence, and the rest is noise more likely to mislead than assist in analysis.

Strong agree with all this.

Yeah, they and all Twitter awards “pundit” yammering posts really epitomise pointless “filler” themselves, anyway

Neon had BP and BD and several other noms in its sights then, too, when it saw HoG as its No.1 threat – the studio folx were nearly putting all eggs in the Spencer basket then, and we see the results today (poor Renate!)

The Carbon Copy Awards, never necessary or relevant in their best of seasons, are truly imploding – they really pull defeat from the jaws of victory.

These “faux-vent” folx really gotta piggyback on actual awards for any notice, now? It’s over. The dust has come for them, and then, against the odds, the Globes will return to TV in 2023 with…[Read more]

Yes, and I’m not on board with people pointing to Sophia Loren’s and Ellen Burstyn’s lack of Oscar noms last time as evidence that the “vets’ vote” isn’t strong – those two actresses’ films (The Life Ahead and Pieces of a Woman) were not BP nominees, or even strong BP nom contenders. WSS is a very different story….

Fully agree, and yes, Matlin and Moreno would be likely beneficiaries of CODA and West Side Story being two of the most viewed contenders by Academy acting branch voters, which is what i’m presuming.

I’m sure she took heat for that stance, too…. but sometimes going against the grain does pay off.

If Cruz misses, could be Parallel Mothers. If Rex misses, could be Red Rocket. If Cage misses, could be Pig.

#TeamFaist – my favorite of the group following Kotsur and the irrepressible KSM. (Has NBP eaten sufficient crow/humble pie/dust yet?)

Wright was the clear standout in TFD, imo. Loved him, and wanted more.

This here! Yep, this is the transparent and deeply unclever M.O. of so many “pundits” and “wannabe pundits” here and on Film/Oscar Twitter. And it’s never impressive or persuasive.

Ignore such blatherers, and you shall be set free. 😉

Shots fired! And Cake flung.