Forum Replies Created
March 22, 2019 at 8:15 pm #1202826424
Bodyguard will not be eligible for 2020 as the show hasn’t begun production and the creator says any second series production will begin mid 2020 earliest.
Good to know! I guess This Is Us will most likely get a double Best Actor nomination 4 years in a row despite the Emmys not really loving the show.March 22, 2019 at 12:53 pm #1202826048
Newton’s not gonna miss after being nominated twice and winning last year against 6 people especially since her show is airing after all of the contenders again.
Predicting her missing does feel weird, but I can’t reasonably see her being ahead of any of those 6 if their shows pan out (unless if Garner loses to Headey this year, in which case she’ll probably be dropped). Meryl is obviously not missing. Helena Bonham Carter is a famous actress in what is likely either going to be the Drama Series winner or the show in second place and is taking over a role that was nominated for an Emmy last time around. Lizzy Caplan has been nominated for an Emmy before and is playing multiple characters in a one-time role that will be the Emmys’ only chance to award her for the show. Reese Witherspoon seems like she’s gonna be a co-lead frauded into supporting because of Big Little Lies, and she is also a star. If Garner beats Headey, I’d be surprised if they drop her for Newton a year later since Ozark will probably have more support than Westworld. Laura Dern won in limited series for Big Little Lies, and if Big Little Lies is winning Drama Series she should be able to make it in. I love Newton and her performance on Westworld, but this field is absurdly stacked and I think the declining ratings for Westworld combined with growing disappointment over the series as a whole will make it hard for her to make it back in with so much competition if there’s only 6 nominees.March 22, 2019 at 12:30 pm #1202826011
So, next year in Drama we will probably have… Better Call Saul, Big Little Lies, Bodyguard, The Crown, The Handmaid’s Tale, Homecoming, Homeland, Killing Eve, Ozark, Pose, Stranger Things, Succession, This is Us and Westworld. Now that will be interesting…
Don’t forget that we’ll also have Apple’s new streaming service and their 2 big shows for it (The Morning Show and Are You Sleeping). I think both of them can get in if they’re as good as I expect them to be, though I’m way more confident in The Morning Show. Here’s what I’m predicting for next year (obviously there’s no real basis for any of this since none of these seasons have aired).
- Big Little Lies (Season 2)
- The Crown (Season 3)
- Better Call Saul (Season 5)
- The Morning Show (Season 1)
- Ozark (Season 3)
- Are You Sleeping (Season 1)
- The Handmaid’s Tale (Season 3)
- Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies)
- Olivia Colman (The Crown)
- Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)
- Octavia Spencer (Are You Sleeping)
- Reese Witherspoon (Big Little Lies)
- Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
- Laura Linney (Ozark)
- Steve Carell (The Morning Show)
- Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
- Jason Bateman (Ozark)
- Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
- Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us)
- Tobias Menzies (The Crown)
- Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us)
Drama Supporting Actress
- Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies)
- Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown)
- Lizzy Caplan (Are You Sleeping)
- Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)
- Julia Garner (Ozark)
- Laura Dern (Big Little Lies)
- Thandie Newton (Westworld)
Drama Supporting Actor
March 22, 2019 at 11:35 am #1202825921
- Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
- Aaron Paul (Are You Sleeping)
- Josh O’Connor (The Crown)
- Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
- David Harbour (Stranger Things 3)
- Ron Cephas Jones (Are You Sleeping)
- Billy Crudup (The Morning Show)
Also, I looked at the lineup next year while answering that question and it’s going to be a mess in the Drama Series and female Drama Acting categories (the male categories look like they still will be pretty empty). Drama Actress is stacked enough that I’m predicting Sandra Oh missing next year even if she wins this year (I’d bet on Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, Reese Witherspoon (for Big Little Lies), Jennifer Aniston, Elisabeth Moss, Laura Linney, and Octavia Spencer before her) and Drama Supporting Actress is stacked enough that I could easily see Thandie Newton and every female supporting actor for The Handmaid’s Tale missing (Right now, my lineup is Meryl Streep, Helena Bonham Carter, Lizzy Caplan, Julia Garner, Reese Witherspoon (for The Morning Show), and Laura Dern). And in Drama Series, there are 13-14 plausible contenders that I can think of already (Big Little Lies, The Crown, Better Call Saul, The Morning Show, Are You Sleeping, Ozark, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, Westworld, Stranger Things, Homeland, This Is Us, and whichever one or two of Bodyguard, Succession, and Pose gets in this year).March 22, 2019 at 10:21 am #1202825844
HBO’s biggest shows Veep and Game of Thrones are ending. How well do you think HBO will do next year with both of those shows out of consideration
I think Big Little Lies will win Drama Series next year unless if there’s a new breakout show. Barry probably is going to be second or third in the Comedy field. Westworld and Succession (if it gets nominated this year) could stick around for another year, but they will face a lot of competition and might not be able to make it (right now I’m betting on Big Little Lies, The Crown, Better Call Saul, The Morning Show, Ozark, Are You Sleeping, and The Handmaid’s Tale being the nominees, with Westworld, Killing Eve, Stranger Things 3, and whichever of Succession/Bodyguard/Pose get nominated this year fighting to break in). And I really don’t see much of a scenario in which both Westworld and Succession make it next year. If Issa Rae gets nominated again this year she could stick around, but otherwise it might be hard for her to break into the Comedy Actress field again. And Silicon Valley feels like it might be done in the Comedy Series race given how stacked the Comedy field has been recently.March 21, 2019 at 7:24 pm #1202825125
Well it was worthy enough to land him a nomination before. I don’t see how the biggest, most popular, most loved characters of the most eventful season of the decade in the biggest television show of the century miss for their final seasons when they have been nominated before.
Would you really say that Game of Thrones is a bigger show than The Sopranos or Breaking Bad?March 21, 2019 at 2:06 pm #1202824788
I’m convinced by your argument but what/who misses if Pose/Porter get in?
Harington can miss for Porter. He missed last year despite the field arguably being weaker than it is this year and he missed in 2015 despite giving a great performance in Season 5. I’m not convinced that Pose will break into Series, but there’s definitely room for it to (Homecoming, Bodyguard, and Succession are not strong contenders for the last 2 slots, and even Killing Eve could flop out of the race).March 21, 2019 at 10:58 am #1202824549
The real travesty is The Truman Show not even being nominated when it deserved to easily win.March 19, 2019 at 3:18 pm #1202822355
Who do you think is getting the last spot? Issa Rae or Phoebe Waller-Bridge? With Star Wars, Killing Eve, and Fleabag on Broadway Waller-Bridge seems to be building quite a buzz. Not to mention that the aired episodes of the second season are a marvel. What made Rae a nominee last year, buzz and acclaim, seems to be lacking this year. (Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Rachel Brosnahan, Natasha Lyonne, Alison Brie, Pamela Adlon are all locked for me.)
Are you convinced that Janney is going to miss? Also, I think Kristen Bell fits into that category of buzz and acclaim, and I think we can’t consider Brie a lock when her miss last year was inexplicable.March 19, 2019 at 12:25 pm #1202822203
There are only eight eligible new scores this year, but we could have five nominees in Book. That would mean that some very bad books get a Tony nomination, though. But it wouldn’t be the first time.
This is why I’m not a fan of the Tonys. An awards show in which bad work consistently gets nominated simply because there aren’t enough good options isn’t a worthwhile judge of anything.March 19, 2019 at 2:10 am #1202821570
SAG loved Ozark this year, awarding Jason Bateman and nominating Laura Linney, Julia Garner and the ensemble. SAG only has a few nomination slots, so who might represent the “ensemble” at the Emmys after not quite being so strong a contender to get an individual SAG citation? This is Us won ensemble and Sterling K. Brown got nominated, but Milo Ventimiglia and Chrissy Metz join him at the Emmys. The Handmaid’s Tale got both Elisabeth Moss and Joseph Fiennes in at SAG, but they also get three more supporting actresses in at the Emmys. Better Call Saul got Bob Odenkirk and the ensemble this year, with Jonathan Banks sure to register at the Emmys. The Ozark equivalent will be Peter Mullan. Of course he did not get a SAG nomination because he is not a core part of the show like that, but he was a big part of the second season specifically. And he is an Emmy-nominated actor to boot who just recurred on another show that is big with the Emmys. He is flying under the radar because Ozark is not a journalists/critics show, so he missed the precursors (and it is not really a Gold Derby show as such, so the lack of awareness snowballs, but this is an industry-beloved show). Of course he did not get into the Globes’ catch-all supporting category and of course Critics’ Choice did not nominate him because they did not even nominate Jason Bateman or Laura Linney! I have him fourth.
I have him in 6th. He definitely makes a lot of sense and I hope he makes it in. I’m still baffled that he missed for Westworld last year.March 18, 2019 at 10:26 pm #1202821424
Adding Billy Porter and Indya Moore. The article also notes that FX is pushing Better Things.
Why do you think Pose will get two acting nominations but miss Series? If it is getting that much support, it should be able to get in over Homecoming. Also, why are you only predicting 5 nominees for Lead Drama Actor at this point?