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Oscars Nominations 2021

Predictions

Best Picture

  • Nomadland 13/2
  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 15/2
  • Minari 17/2

Best Director

  • Chloe Zhao 82/25
  • David Fincher 9/2
  • Lee Isaac Chung 6/1

Best Actress

  • Carey Mulligan 37/10
  • Viola Davis 4/1
  • Frances McDormand 4/1

Best Actor

  • Chadwick Boseman 10/3
  • Anthony Hopkins 4/1
  • Riz Ahmed 9/2

Best Supporting Actress

  • Olivia Colman 4/1
  • Yuh-Jung Youn 9/2
  • Glenn Close 5/1

Best Supporting Actor

  • Daniel Kaluuya 18/5
  • Sacha Baron Cohen 4/1
  • Leslie Odom, Jr. 4/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Nomadland 69/20
  • One Night in Miami 4/1
  • The Father 9/2

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Trial of the Chicago 7 71/20
  • Promising Young Woman 4/1
  • Minari 9/2

Grammy Nominations 2021

Predictions

Record of the Year

  • Blinding Lights 4/1
  • Don't Start Now 13/2
  • Circles 15/2
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lhdang2000

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    lhdang2000
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    March 1, 2021 at 9:48 pm #1204075866

    So, I’ve just finished “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” and it really reminds me of “La Vie en Rose.” Both messy musical drama with brilliant performances. I know it’s better to not go chronologically in a biopic, but it takes certain skills to do that and I don’t think Lee Daniels has the talent to succeed in the task.

    Also, I considered Marion Cotillard’s performance “the best acting performance of all time,” and she managed to save/elevate the movie. Andra Day, while also spectacular, wasn’t able to do so. I think as a whole, TUSvBH is such a weak movie that I just can’t root for Day. However, I think she has the talent and hope that this is not her last acting job like she said. She has the potential, and I wish she would try to do something out of the musical biopic box in the future.

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    lhdang2000
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    March 1, 2021 at 3:31 pm #1204075134
    jjjmoss1 wrote:

    neither.

    I… don’t know about that. It could be just me, but if Andra Day wins the Oscars, she and Pike both get in the lineup or Jodie Foster somehow get in the Best Supporting Actress, I may not listen to anything except the Globes before Oscars again.

    jvcruzeiro wrote:

    Without SAG ? Never. Without BAFTA ? Kathy Bates for Misery. (SAG was created after) So, without SAG + BAFTA ? Never. I’m talking about Leading Actress.

    Thank you. This is the data that I was asking for. While I appreciate people mentioning Regina King. I personally think the Academy Awards has been more accepting towards the minority actors/actresses or embracing rare, unprecedented situations in the Supporting categories in the recent years. The Lead categories are where a lot of the problems come from (to me!). It seems like Day has a lot to overcome here.

    ^ @Baftawin: I’m not gonna quote you because the post is really long and can make the whole page laggy, but thank you.

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    lhdang2000
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    March 1, 2021 at 1:33 pm #1204074905

    Well, now that I’ve finally calmed myself down, I figure this would be a great race to follow. I remembered being so bored last year when the acting categories were announced at the Oscars. I really hoped someone was going to pull an upset, but I was just being delusional at that point.

    And of course, while I would have loved for my pick, Mulligan, to win out of the gate to get that secure feeling, it’d be interesting to see what Focus Features, Fennell and Mulligan do now. Will they go extra hard or will they give up? Also, this gives Netflix hopes that Mulligan is not a frontrunner and they can still do something with Davis and even Kirby or Pike.

    And finally, it’d be interesting to see if Andra Day can keep her momentum seeing that her win is almost unprecedented and that may even be applied if she wins an Oscar. When was the last time an actress wins Oscar without SAG + BAFTA nominations?

    HFPA played a double-or-nothing risk. Picking these actress winners may either make them the most legendary precursor or they’ll become a laughing stock after this award season.

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    lhdang2000
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    March 1, 2021 at 1:08 am #1204072571
    Philip wrote:

    That doesn’t really work tho. All the POC were predicted to win before the story broke, except Day. If you polled 100 people and had them rank 5 films, I bet the same thing would happen. Also, just because an actor wins for a film doesn’t mean they are rewarding the film itself but the performance. Everyone that won (the ones you are talking about) all had other nods except Pike, but we all knew she had a chance to win because they love her. Like for me personally, I liked Boseman, Viola and Turman in Ma Rainey. I wouldn’t vote for it in picture. And how is Foster a Globe darling? She hasn’t won in 30 years, outside of the DeMille award. Close is more of a darling with the HFPA. She’s had 9 nods and 3 wins in the last 15 years. Colman is a darling, going 3 for 3 until tonight.

    You’ve raised some great points here, and I can see where you’re coming at. However, this is Golden Globes’ statistics in the nearest decade on the number of acting winners from movies that weren’t nominated in Best Film.

    2010: 3/6 (Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Robert Downey Jr.); 2011: 1/6 (Paul Giamatti); 2012: 2/6 (Meryl Streep, Christopher Plummer); 2013: 0/6; 2014: 3/6 (Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Jared Leto); 2015: 3/6 (Julianne Moore, Amy Adams and J.K. Simmons); 2016: 2/6 (Sylvester Stallone, Kate Winslet); 2017: 3/6 (Isabelle Huppert, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Viola Davis); 2018: 2/6 (Gary Oldman and James Franco); 2019: 1/6 (Glenn Close); 2020: 2/6 (Renee Zellweger and Awkwafina).

    Over a decade, we never have 4/6, let alone 5/6 like this year. Of 22 cases, only one was a Black actor/actress: Viola Davis, who had such a strong narrative and went on to win the Oscar. Almost all of them were actors who achieved this had strong narratives, experienced or are HFPA-favorites (like Amy Adams) even when their films are weak. Awkwafina is almost a similar case to Andra Day, but she won in Comedy/Musical and did not even receive a nomination at the Oscars. I can’t recall in recent memory that somebody was able to achieve something that Day did.

    Off-topic since this is a BA thread and not BSA, but one of the reasons why I think Jodie Foster is a darling is because she received the DeMille award at a very young age and was the first female to receive it in over a decade. She was given this honor before Meryl Streep, who had over 20+ nominations at that point. In 1992, she was the only winner for “The Silence of the Lambs,” the movie that dominated the Academy Awards.

    But anyway, I will stop this now (It’s 3 a.m. here, and I have class at 9).

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    lhdang2000
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    March 1, 2021 at 12:33 am #1204072508
    Philip wrote:

    Voting for nominees is alot different than voting for winners tho.

    If this is a large voting body, I’d agree with you. Many who didn’t vote during nominations could vote for the winners. However, this is an award body of less than 100 people, which means the possibility for “Eh, I didn’t like the movie that much, but I will vote for their performance to win” to happen not once, twice, three, four but five times (Boseman, Kaluuya, Day, Pike and Foster) is almost impossible.

    But Foster is an HFPA-darling and Pike is in a category with all-white nominees, which left me a weird question mark on whether HFPA is trying to save their face and correct their wrongdoings in the past after the exposé.

    But anyway, once again, congrats to Day, she’s gaining serious momentum at the most important time. Will this affect the other voting bodies? I guess we’ll have to come back next Sunday for this.

     

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 11:45 pm #1204072391
    Philip wrote:

    Umm SBC won lead for Borat, which also won Best Picture Comedy.

    Oh my, disregard that please, my apologies. Somehow I was thinking of Kaluuya when I typed that.

    But then, my next question is: If they love these performances that much, why are all none of Best Picture nominees have a Black lead character? I can understand JATBM and BHvUS ‘s late releases, but what is the explanation for Ma Rainey’s and ONIM (one supporting nom and one song nom)?

    For an association that had 10 slots to nominate at least one brilliant Black-lead movie (I can name at least five this season on top of my head) and didn’t, I don’t buy the fact they organically switched it just like that from the nomination day to today, unless it’s in the rule book somewhere that they cannot switch their votes or didn’t vote until last Monday.

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 11:29 pm #1204072329

    Just before nominations there was rumors that voters really like The Us vs Billie Holiday and that Andra Day should be expected, she ended with two nominations, she campaigned a lot during voting, I just knew she was not losing given her performance (she’s basically undeniable) and that’s why I predicted her. Also Boseman and Kaluuya still made sense, I mean Boseman duh? And SBC was winning comedy actor. This isn’t the first time hfpa let some films go home empty handed like The Irishman and the Two Popes last year? Also no one is saying shite about Pike winning?? Like black actors benefited from the backlash when they always made sense?

    I hope this last part was not directed towards me since I didn’t mean to cause backlash or anything. I don’t think I’ve even criticized anybody’s performance here, especially ones that I haven’t watched yet like Day’s. Congrats to her, and I won’t have any opinions about her win until I watch the film. I’m shocked by Rosamund Pike’s win too if you look at the reaction thread.

    While Kaluuya and Boseman, who deservedly won, was expected to win, some people still predicted SBC and Sir Hopkins to win just because of how HFPA treated Black actors and actresses in the past. I just find it extremely interesting that the winners from all four lead acting categories are not in the Best Picture-nominated films. Has it ever happened before?

     

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 11:11 pm #1204072261

    This is what I was worried in the previous thread. People were too confident in Mulligan’s chance once the nomination comes out. She was thought to be snubbed to suddenly become an immediate front runner in that morning. However, not to sound salty here since I’ve been rooting for the film since the beginning, but is there any chance they were changing the votes? I cannot find anything about the voting deadline for the Globes at all.

    I just find it funny that right after the controversy, they immediately apologize on live television and all the Black nominees in the film categories (except Original Song) won. I’m not saying the nominees are not brilliant, I just find it… weird(?!?) that an award ceremony that’s been known to have never celebrated Black excellence to suddenly do so amid controversy?

     

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 7:58 pm #1204070517

    Man. F this,

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 7:43 pm #1204070263

    I want to use this post to say Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar is a spectacular comedy and it deserves some love. I like it even better than Bridesmaids. Jamie Dornan is spectacular in the film.

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 7:37 pm #1204070181

    Congrats Chloe Zhao. Praying that she sweeps all the way.

     

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 7:12 pm #1204069641

    Wait WHAT? JODIE FOSTER?

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    lhdang2000
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    February 28, 2021 at 6:32 pm #1204069068

    OH MY GOD PIKE IS COMING FOR THAT FIFTH SPOT.

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    lhdang2000
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    February 25, 2021 at 8:52 pm #1204062130

    It’s funny to see people say,[spoiler] “She only wins because she dies” [/spoiler] when that was the only reason people hate Promising Young Woman besides conservatives who don’t even watch the movie. Some of you will try to say anything to discredit Mulligan.

    I, as her supporter, find it unbelievable how she’s taken the top spot so quickly on people’s predictions and even here. Does the Golden Globes have that much power? I feel like people too quickly assume she’s the favorite here. At this point, I still think it’s between her and Davis, (I really doubt they’d give McDormand the third one for Fran, she may need a completely different role like Mulligan as Cassie to get one that quickly) and it’s too close to be certain.

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    February 20, 2021 at 6:47 pm #1204052330

    I’ve never been a streaming fan, so I’m only now catching up to the awards season, and I thought Meryl Streep was spectacular in Let Them All Talk. I think it’s her best work since Doubt, and I honestly wouldn’t have minded had she gained some momentum in this race. The Prom was not good though…

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