Interesting. I’ve no clue what to think of most beyond Nomadland and Mank, ONIM seems like it has the ingredients to be a high-placed also-ran in BP, what do you think of King’s odds in Director?

Picture

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Father
5. Soul
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. Minari
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. News of the World

Director

1. Fincher
2. Zhao
3. King
4. Zeller
5. Chung

Tried to roughly order by win likelihood but I’d have Mank and Nomadland far ahead in both categories at the…[Read more]

I’m not sure there is a good context for that line, and the murmurs around Elegy seem poor, but I agree with the implication that Close is still the front runner here. Her narrative is so strong that the film would have to be appalling for her to stand no chance at a win. Even if it’s bad, which I am expecting despite saying she’s the front…[Read more]

I think so right now. It seems like a rather thin category and word of mouth for Odom Jr, and all evidence from Mank, suggest those will be the big players. Chicago 7 has a few, but no real standouts as yet, and I wouldn’t say anyone gave a winning performance. I think Strathairn will coat-tail for Nomadland. The 5th spot I have no idea, maybe a…[Read more]

Strikes me as more of an Irishman type situation where it is widely respected enough to get plenty of nominations, but not beloved enough to win at the minute, but I’ve not seen other big players so can’t say for sure.

Think this will translate to supporting too though – two nominations (Cohen if he’s ran there, Rylance, Mateen if not) very…[Read more]

Picture, Director, Actor, Supp. Actor (Seyfried), Supp. Actor (Dance), Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Production Design, Costumes, Hair/ Makeup and Score.

I’d give it an outside chance to double up in one or both Supporting Categories too. Collins looks good in the trailer, and there’s quite a few uncertain spots in that race. As has…[Read more]

I’m thinking the same on Seyfried. Have a feeling she may win and it looks like the kind of role that’s going to steal quite a few scenes. May be down to the fact I have very low hopes/ admiration for Hillbilly Elegy, but still.

Burke I think is out of the race, the credits on the poster and trailer suggest Dance is the one to look out for in…[Read more]

Just seen this. Mixed but generally positive feelings towards it – aside from the ending, which I agree with others was terrible. I’d be baffled and shocked if this won Picture, and don’t see it being a major player in a lot of races – Screenplay the only I’d give it a shot to win. Quite a few noms though, probably.

Right now I’d predict it for…[Read more]

In terms of likelihood of a nomination:

1. Hopkins
2. Oldman
3. Kaluuya
4. Lindo
5. Baron Cohen

Next in lines would probably be Redmayne, Ben-Adir, Hanks and Mikkelsen.

I still have Hopkins as a runaway winner, although Kaluuya could surprise. The only reason I don’t have him above Oldman in terms of nomination likelihood is the uncertainty around…[Read more]

I think that the People’s Choice win for Nomadland is important in dispelling some of the early worries that it will be too subdued and small to be popular with Academy voters. All signs so far point to it being a crowd and critic pleaser that will be a major player at the Oscars – to win TIFF and Venice and be the centrepiece at NYFF can only…[Read more]

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. The Father
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. Dune
9. News of the World
10. Soul

The French Dispatch is in if it gets a release date, but I’m leaving it out for now.

I’m predicting Mank right now. Just seems like it’ll win with Fincher movies getting 2 editing wins last decade and it likely being a big player in the race. Nominations for News of the World, Nomadland, Judas and the Black Messiah and Chicago 7. Dune/ French Dispatch probably getting in there if they release.

I’m glad they’ve chosen to run him in Lead because it would’ve been one of the more egregious category fraud nominees otherwise. Although I wouldn’t give him a chance against the raves Hopkins is getting, I think he’ll be competitive and probably secure a nomination.

I agree it means they’ll likely be going with Boseman in Supporting. Although…[Read more]

1. Close
2. Colman
3. Burstyn
4. Seyfreid
5. Zengel

Have a feeling about Zengel mostly influenced by her work in System Crasher and the critical reception she received for it. Ronan is probably more likely, though.

Zhao and McDormand time.

I’m mostly just saying as a long shot, going off the two being two of the most notable overdue actors around and knowing nothing about the film itself. Not expecting it at all, but still.

A few will fall by the wayside where Picture is concerned. I’d be surprised if 5 Bloods has the staying power to be in the conversation, and Pieces of a Woman seems like it’ll be limited to the acting categories as the general reception is more divided.

Mank and Chicago 7 are most likely to be their top two I think. They’ll either feel…[Read more]

Not sure on that one, I’m kind of torn between it and Mank whilst I wait for reviews for a lot of others to emerge. Right now Nomadland is my #1 for both but I think that’s just because I have the most confidence in it from reviews.

Possibly it mirrors Boyhood as the understated American indie that wins the BAFTA and loses out at the Oscars to…[Read more]

• Picture: Nomadland, Mank, The Father, The Trial of the Chicago 7, One Night in Miami
• Director: Fincher, Zhao, Sorkin, Villeneuve, Zeller
• Actress: Davis, Winslet, Kirby, McDormand, Adams
• Actor: Hopkins, Oldman, Hanks, Kaluuya, Baron Cohen
• Supp. Actress: Colman, Close, Seyfried, Ronan, Zengel
• Supp. Actor: Boseman, Dance, Burke, Rylance,…

[Read more]

Crowd-pleasers generally don’t need the highest Metacritic scores to do well with audiences and voters. Tons of films in recent years have eased to nominations with worse Metascores than the mid-high 70s.