I’m currently thinking Johansson will take this – I can see Marriage Story being a powerhouse in the acting categories, and it seems like a performance that critics and BAFTA will go for, I think Driver and Dern contending for wins also helps elevate her performance too.

Judy doesn’t seem to be doing too well at the box office and I can’t see it…[Read more]

On OUATIH, I’m inclined to agree with those who suspect it won’t perform too well above the line. Pitt is the only winner I see there, realistically. I think it could – and should – win Production Design, and it will still pick up a lot of noms, but I’m not sure if the love will be there in a few months to translate them into wins.

Parasite will…[Read more]

Ah that’s a shame… Think I’ll replace it with Weathering With You on my predictions, thanks!

Current predictions

Picture

1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
6. Joker
7. Little Women
8. 1917
9. A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
10. Bombshell

Director

1. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
2. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
3. Sam Mendes, 1917
4. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
5. Greta Gerwig, Little…

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• Marriage Story
• Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• The Irishman
• Little Women
• Parasite
• Joker
• Jojo Rabbit
• 1917
• The Farewell
• A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood

Potential spoilers include The Two Popes, Ford v Ferrari and Avengers: Endgame. If I was picking a winner now it would have to be Marriage Story, although I suspect that may…[Read more]

All are still very possible, this helps it a fair bit but I don’t think it makes it a lock for anything. I think we’ll just have to see how Parasite plays out, it’s hard to predict how it will do yet, especially given the Academy’s history with Korean cinema, but it seems like a very popular movie with critics and audiences alike so I have it in…[Read more]

Marriage Story first runner-up. Parasite second.

I take your point, but Roma and Beale Street were both runners-up last year and I think they both fit your description of what a ‘critics film’ is. Roma certainly does, and Marriage Story is getting similar levels of buzz to that but seems more audience pleasing, to me, than Roma ever did. Marriage Story is also, by some distance, the most…[Read more]

Winner: Parasite

1st Runner-Up: Marriage Story

2nd Runner-Up: A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood

• Zellweger, Judy
• Johansson, Marriage Story
• Ronan, Little Women
• Awkwafina, The Farewell
• Theron, Bombshell

Post-festival feeling is that Zellweger and Johansson are guaranteed, after that it’s sort of a free for all between a few others. Erivo, Nyong’o and Woodard could all take any of the bottom 3 spots. Ronan should be guaranteed unless…[Read more]

• The Irishman
• Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• Hustlers

At the minute I’m fairly confident in the first four, the 5th I’m struggling between Hustlers, The Farewell, Parasite, Downton Abbey, Bombshell, and a ton more. I’d fancy Marriage Story to win because I see it getting at least 3 – possibly 4 – Oscar acting noms.

Yeah I was hestiant on that, GD has it in Original at the minute but Wikipedia and some other places mention that it’s been adapted. I didn’t want to be specific but I agree if it runs Adapted it could win and I imagine it’ll certainly be nominated.

I have The Irishman, Little Women, ABDITN, Joker and Dark Waters getting in for now but I’m only…[Read more]

Impressive. I can see it being a big crowd-pleaser. Netflix seems like it will have a lot on its plate with Marriage Story and The Irishman but they could also campaign this, and it’s scheduled for a theatrical release, so I can see it getting into Picture, Actor, Supp. Actor, Screenplay and some below the line categories.

Marriage Story

Joker

The Irishman

A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood

Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

This sounds like a great time and I imagine it’ll be popular with audiences. I don’t think it’ll break into many categories at the Oscars, but I imagine Lopez will get in if they campaign her as Supporting. I still can’t see past Dern when it comes to winning the award, but the category is a bit of a wasteland at the minute and the raves Lopez is…[Read more]

Golden Lion win is huge for Joker I feel. I’d essentially discounted it for BP before this but I imagine it’s getting in now – I know it doesn’t really track prior to The Shape of Water but I think it’s big for Joker regardless. It’s also on track to make serious money at the box office, which can’t hinder it.

I think it’s also big for Phoenix,…[Read more]

General consensus from TIFF is that Michael B. Jordan gives a career best performance and I think it’s reasonable to predict him getting in. He and Pryce are certainly complicating the prediction process now, posing a threat to early favourites for a nod like DiCaprio and Banderas.

Just Mercy seems like a very viable contender for Oscar nominations and the TIFF audience award based off these early reviews. Even some of the more critical ones suggest it’ll be a hit with audiences and voters. Can see it being a big player if reviews remain positive and audiences embrace it in cinemas, as well as at TIFF.

I think there is a point that this year could be dominated by ‘co-leads’. I hadn’t thought about it but it’s feasible the line-up is something like Bale, Pitt, Brown, Hanks and Dafoe, all of whom are at least co-leads or close to it by the sounds of it.

Right now though my predictions would be:

• Pitt, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Alda,…

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Top 3 prediction – Marriage Story, Parasite, Waves. If I had to pick a winner I’d go Parasite.

Tough to call though as I think safer bets are probably A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood, Just Mercy, Jojo Rabbit or Ford v Ferrari but I just have a very good feeling about Marriage Story and Waves whilst Parasite seems to be a massive audience…[Read more]