[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205273341

Sean C wrote:

All that said, Nolan has never been the kind of director who gets people acting nominations, so I’m not really expecting that to start now.

I’m not necessarily expecting it, but it could happen here with Murphy and Blunt. He’s never had two characters more compelling than this to tackle. I think if the film is an awards hit it will be because he has really dug in to the complexities of those two characters and the heavy moral questions weighing on them. They’ve both got a good chance.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205273329

Chloe Sevigny stan <3 wrote:

Why has no one accused Williams of stealing a spot by going lead instead of supporting?…

I take the point, but they’re wildly different scenarios. Williams really just made it more difficult and sacrificed an easy win for herself and when you think about it, she’d probably have denied Hsu a spot in BSA and denied Bassett the win there, so the backlash would probably have been more severe.

I also don’t think the majority of people are as angry at Riseborough herself (good performance, great actress) as they are at the film’s campaign more broadly and Frances Fisher specifically for directly sabotaging Davis and Deadwyler. Williams did nothing remotely as bad taste as that.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205273258

Not to dredge up old and tired points (although what is the Actress thread for if not that) but having just recently caught The Fabelmans I really do not get the Williams placement. I think she’s ultimately great in a role that starts off looking impossible to pull off, but she’s clearly Supporting to me, at least to the extent that nobody would bat an eyelid if she were placed there. She doesn’t have much more to do than Dano, and it’s clearly LaBelle’s movie. Strange one. I liked the movie though, shame I do think it’s going to go home with nothing.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205273256

Jaket1991 wrote:

Hadn’t known this, and I hope you’re right Rachel, I would love that for Blunt. Still not holding my breath considering Nolan’s not especially known for character development (again, especially for females).

Just to echo what’s been said. I think I agree with you both; this shouldn’t be a case of another nothing female character, she’s an absolutely fascinating woman in her own right (maybe more than her husband, honestly – her life story is amazing – literally just scan her Wiki intro; more twists and turns than Tenet) and I think Nolan should and will get criticised quite heavily if he brushes her aside.

That said, Nolan has shown no real signs of being able to, or wanting to, translate that to the screen in the past. However, this is, I think, the first time he’s had a real-life female character with evident depth there for him to start with, so it’s probably the best chance for him to prove critics wrong in that respect. Helps he has a brilliant actor in the role too with Blunt.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205272781

Brayfers wrote:

Elvis won’t go home with nothing, It’s Top 2 in Actor, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling, Im sure it will win at least one of these

It’s first in none though, and it faces stiff competition in all of those categories. There’s definitely a chance it’s shut out.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205272234

It feels like quite a lot of Picture nominees could go home with nothing to be fair. Banshees, Fabelmans, TAR, Elvis, Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness all feel somewhat vulnerable. It probably won’t be the case, and I’m predicting Banshees (Actor just about and OS), TAR (Actress) and WT (Adapted) to win at least something still, but it’s feasible only EEAAO, Avatar, TG:M and All Quiet walk away with anything, with EEAAO the only Picture nominee winning above the line.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205272169

I’m fearing this will be the case with Banshees. It’s sort of funny because it feels like on a good day it could win four – Picture, Actor, Supp. Actress and Original Screenplay. But with EEAAO looking extremely strong, I could see that taking Picture and Screenplay. Bassett looks to be, somewhat bafflingly but whatever, the Supp. Actress frontrunner over Condon. Actor is a three-horse race that can’t be called yet. I still just about think it will win one because it’s clearly loved by a lot of people – Actor or Original I would guess.

The Fabelmans I really only think has a shot in Director and Score, and I have it 3rd and 2nd there respectively. It’s had the feel of a shut-out for a little while, I’d be more surprised if it did get a win to be honest.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205264906

Cabiria wrote:

Just notice that every BD winner in at least this century is from a film nominated for Oscars cinematography or editing. If the stats is right, it’s gonna be between Todd Field and The Daniels this year. (McDonagh is not winning for sure)

I wouldn’t completely rule out McDonagh, but this is a fair point. I think Field is a genuine threat – I know they clearly loved EEAAO, but there’s real passion for TAR there too. Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography is a seriously respectable haul of nominations. This feels like the first time in a while I’ve been genuinely unsure about where BAFTA, DGA and the Oscars are going to go at this point in this race. It feels like a three-horse race to me between Daniels/ Field/ Spielberg, roughly in that order.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205263035

Chitanda170 wrote:

And that’s the reason Colin won’t win, Elvis overperform, only one nomination behind Banshees.

How can you use the argument that Banshees got more nominations than Elvis as a reason Farrell won’t beat Butler?

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205262902

Vogue wrote:

This is back to a race between Hold My Hand and Lift Me Up with This Is The Life joining. Now that the entire voting body will vote, expect songs from films with high nomination counts (EEAAO, WF, TGM) to win.

Totally possible, but alternatively Naatu Naatu is hugely popular and RRR fans (and there are many of them) will have one category on which to focus all of their love.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205262849

Sean C wrote:

Aftersun seemed like a classic “here’s your token screenplay nod” film, so I’m fascinated that it got into Actor but didn’t get Original Screenplay.

That Original 5 is extremely strong though, probably the strongest Screenplay category in several years. 5 Picture nominees, 5 Director nominees, including the 4 frontrunners in Picture and a beloved, very writerly and dialogue heavy Palme D’Or winner. It never really had a chance.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205262829

Actormogul wrote:

Yes because clearly Academy voters watched it… After word of mouth etc. they didn’t watch Till.

I’m still not convinced they did. And Deadwyler made SAG, CC and BAFTA so people did see Till. But I am mostly just joking.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205262797

The Whale’s Picture miss makes this interesting again.

I think the argument that Farrell “won’t win because they don’t award performances like this” is invalidated by Banshees receiving 9 nominations (7 ATL) and 4 in the Acting categories. Voters love his movie and the performances in it, there is also clear recent history of voters loving off-kilter McDonagh performances. Even if they don’t normally reward roles like this, they certainly could this time, especially with a Globe and Volpi behind him and a probable BAFTA.

That said, Elvis did really well too and Butler is obviously strong. There’s no real way of knowing unless SAG and BAFTA both go for the same winner.

Most importantly. Mescal nomination. I already feel at ease with whatever happens in this category.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205262734

Actormogul wrote:

The problem is nobody saw Till.

Can we even use this argument in a post-To Leslie world?

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

#1205262716

Caught up on the nominations.

I broadly like the nominations. I think the Riseborough situation reeks a lot more than it did a few weeks ago considering who lost out, after being named directly by those campaigning her. Mescal balances things out though – what a superb choice.

EEAAO overperformed quite substantially. It doesn’t feel like a TPOTD repeat in the sense that that overperformance is the result of overwhelming passion, as well as respect. I think it will win Picture.

That said, Banshees and TAR look very strong too. I think Field poses a strong threat in Director, and I think he could win the BAFTA there. I wouldn’t count Spielberg out at the Oscars either, of course. I think Banshees overperformed for the type of film it is too, so it remains a two horse race.

TAR is third because of its Editing surprise – I can see a world where it wins, but obviously its odds are slim. I have it ahead of Fabelmans because I think it can build steam in the coming months in a way Fabelmans will not be able to.  Fabelmans did  well but I think with the Editing miss it’s probably going to have to resign itself to being the leader of the chasing pack – it needed to overperform here to convince me it had a shot.

I enjoy the Triangle of Sadness chaos noms. I didn’t even love the film but it makes things a bit more intriguing and I do like the Ostlund director nomination as a continuation of the respected international auteur slot.

X

Reply