[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073744

wolfali wrote:

I loved Rocks and Bukky Bakray gave one of my top 6 performances in the Actress category this year but BAFTA please don’t award Kosar Ali. She did nothing in that film. Niamh Algar would be a shock. I think she gets in for the nomination (I have her third) but a win would be very left field because whilst Calm with Horses did well on the long-list it didn’t do as well ass either Saint Maud or The Mauritanian did. I am starting to think <i>The Mauritanian </i>is one of the 4 films in British Film that automatically went through to the nomination round and didn’t face jury interference due to its support.

I think my 6 predictions right now for BAFTA would be Colman, Foster, Youn, Close, Seyfried and Zengel, roughly in that order of win-likelihood, with Ehle in 7th. I get the impression The Mauritanian has major backing at BAFTA, too.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073730

Cocastique wrote:

Honestly, no fucking clue… To me it’s between Foster and Close, with Youn as the hypothetical upset. I could see them giving a 3rd one after a long absence, especially in supporting. I could see them throwing a bone to Close. But Youn… she feels really unlikely. I have no doubt her performance’s great given the praise she got but I just don’t see it. But Bakalava, Seyfried and Colman feel even more unlikely. Zengel is out to me.

This is fair. I see Youn as likelier than this, but I agree they won’t be opposed to giving Foster a third, given her standing as an actor and the time between this one and her second win. I just about don’t see it, though, given SAG and CC misses and the low visibility of the movie, but she could take BAFTA in which case I’d probably predict her. Giving it to Close in a year as wide open as this is also very feasible, and the Globes don’t have the need to award her given she won for The Wife so recently, whilst the Oscar would primarily be an overdue prize in my opinion, so the loss here doesn’t rule her out. Cases can be made for Close, Foster, Youn and Colman to win in my opinion, but “no fucking clue” is certainly the most accurate take at the minute.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073631

Cocastique wrote:

Looks like y’all are hyping up Youn like you hyped Mulligan and look how that turned out. Youn is not winning, it’s my gut feeling. Being nominated will be her reward.

It’s all gut feeling at the minute to be fair, especially in this category where there’s no real logic pointing to anyone as a winner right now. Who do you think is winning?

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073594

wolfali wrote:

BAFTA is the one that is perplexing to me. Minari under-performed on the long-list but this film has been on the rise so I wonder if Youn may be gaining with the membership votes (which is what she needs when it comes to the win). Colman could win and I do think The Father will do well at BAFTA but I feel that in the UK even though Colman is beloved there is a sense of fatigue towards her winning so many awards. Foster is interesting because we know the membership LOVED her film. I mean the actors branch long-listed Benedict Cumberbatch and he does nothing in it lol. So I’d predict her if she gets nominated. Same with Jennifer Ehle.

I think Foster definitely gets nominated at BAFTA, and I could see her winning given the longlist reception for the movie and the Globes boost. You’re right about the possibility of Colman-win fatigue. I’ll still predict her to win, but they may think she has won enough awards in a short space of time lol. She is beloved, and gives cracking speeches, though, and I think The Father will be a fairly big player, so there’s not enough there for me look past her. Youn could win the BAFTA, but I’d give her a stronger chance at SAG and CC given Minari missed Best Film. Honestly, it’s so weird a category at the minute that I could see them going rogue and picking a British indie winner for sure- Ehle, Kosar Ali (please, BAFTA!), Niamh Algar maybe.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073540

Stank83 wrote:

Seven Fight Club Zodiac The Social Network Gone Girl Mank I’m struggling to understand why a filmmaking icon like Fincher hasn’t won any Oscar yet.

The Social Network aside I don’t think any of these films not winning BD are that surprising. Lots of great contemporary directors haven’t won BD (Tarantino, PTA, Nolan, Anderson, Malick, you could go on for a while) or, like Scorsese, are legends who had to wait a really long time, after lots of hits. Throughout history there are tons of all-time great directors who haven’t won it (Hitchcock, Kubrick, Fellini, Kurosawa, Godard, Welles, etc.). Fincher’s time will probably come eventually, same for most of those contemporary directors I listed, but the films you mentioned either haven’t gained major awards traction or have been beaten by reasonable competition. Even with The Social Network, I’d probably have awarded True Grit or Black Swan over it. Maybe I’m just not a die-hard Fincher fan, but his not yet having an Oscar doesn’t really shock me.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073057

I’m going Youn here too, now. For one, I saw Minari and she blew me away. Two, the Globes basically confirmed suspicions that the other presumed frontrunners haven’t got the passion. I don’t think Foster/ The Mauritanian will be strong enough outside of European circles to take her to an Oscar win, although she could win BAFTA if Colman doesn’t. Given the love they both showed Minari in noms, and the strength of her performance, I could see Youn winning SAG and CC, then the Oscar. Obviously, the Globes seemed to fashion themselves as a bit of an outlier this year in the Actress races, so Close or Colman could still take a couple of wins each and win the Oscar, but Youn is my #1 at the minute, especially with Minari building steam and releasing wide at the right moment.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204073014

wolfali wrote:

Picture Nomadland why! Why did you have to win the Globe and do this to yourself! I hope it doesn’t suffer the early frontrunner curse. That being said I do think it’s the safe choice and I can see a world where it just wins each Picture award. There just seems to be nothing that can stop it. However it is a very long Oscar season. And I think it’s one that benefits Minari. In a crazy year like this one this film has been rising and rising in profile and the film being a heartwarming one about the American dream that the actors branch seem to be really gravitating towards.  

Agree with this. Nomadland being the early frontrunner does seem like something that could set it up for a downfall, although I’m not exactly convinced the Amazon/ gift basket stuff is really gonna sway voters away from it – I imagine most voters use Amazon and would be willing to work with them, and receiving a gift basket isn’t going to put many people off. Does seem like something that will just never really break out of Twitter, whatever you think about the argument. I can see a full Picture sweep for Nomadland, for sure – the PGA is a little up in the air, and for obvious reasons it can’t win SAG, but I think I give it the edge at PGA, DGA and BAFTA for now.

Minari is definitely the dark horse. I think the Globes actually made me more convinced in it, because it opened up a path for Youn to win Supporting as a passion pick by revealing the other presumed frontrunners just haven’t built up that support. I still have Chicago in second, but after seeing Minari I think it could build towards a Screenplay, Supporting Actress and Picture win, if Chicago doesn’t have the passion and Nomadland receives some front-of-the-pack criticism.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204072825

Philip wrote:

I was just interested because she lost when she was the overwhelming favorite to win with all the facts you laid out.

Fairs. It was a surprise, but not that big a surprise in my opinion, Pike’s been campaigning quite a bit, and the film is a fairly buzzy new release. I think Bakalova is on the bubble in Supporting Actress because of all those things I outlined, but the Globes loss and the general nature of the performance suggest to me she won’t get in, even though I don’t think she absolutely needed to win the Globe to get a Supporting nom.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204072760

Philip wrote:

I’m interested in your reasoning behind Bakalova, she lost in an extremely weak category when her film won its 2 other nods.

I didn’t really say anything concrete about Bakalova, but she’s a Globe and SAG nominee, shortlisted at BAFTA, who did really well at critics awards so she’s obviously in contention for the 5th Supporting slot alongside Foster and Zengel imo, assuming Colman, Youn, Close and Seyfried are slightly ahead, although all four of them are also vulnerable. The fact it’s such a close race also puts Bakalova in a reasonably competitive position.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204072743

I’m slightly closer to the side of enjoying these winners too. I haven’t seen Billie Holiday or The Mauritanian, but those wins at least make those races more exciting and confusing, and Foster winning for the latter convinces me more of a Youn win at the Oscars. No clue where those races are going, but Day certainly fills the 5th slot quite comfortably now in Actress, Supporting I’ve less faith in predicting Foster, but she certainly moves closer to Zengel and Bakalova for that 5th slot.

In terms of what it clarified – Zhao, Boseman and Kaluuya are locked. I thought they would be, but this definitely crystallises that. I think the Globes was the least likely win for all 3 and them taking it means I’ll definitely have those 3 locked in my predictions. Also, Chicago 7 for Original seems a safe bet, whether it wins Picture or not, but I think the Globes suggests the love for that isn’t going to be as strong as we expect, so I think it’s definitely vulnerable to a Minari or PYW passion pick there.

What’s strange is, this doesn’t actually convince me much more that Nomadland is winning BP. I don’t really put much stock in the Globes anyway, but there’s usually some sort of backlash against the Globe Drama winner and – – less quantifiable – it just feels slightly off, for some reason, like it’s one of those years where the Globe and BAFTA winner gets shafted come Oscar night. I dunno. I’m putting a fair bit of stock into PGA this year, I’m unsure where they’ll go, but I’ll probably predict their winner to take the Oscar.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204066410

eastwest wrote:

Best Motion Picture – Drama The Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Hamilton Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm Best Motion Picture – Animated Soul Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language Minari (USA) Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture Amanda Seyfried – Mank Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Director – Motion Picture Chloé Zhao – Nomadland Best Screenplay – Motion Picture Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Original Score – Motion Picture Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste – Soul Best Original Song – Motion Picture “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…

Glad I don’t have to write my final predictions out now. Exact same for me, except I think Close will beat Seyfried in Supporting Actress. 51/49 between Cohen and Kaluuya in Supporting Actor, but I generally give bad taste the edge with tight Globes predictions, so I’ll go with Cohen.

I can definitely see Hopkins beating out Boseman, though. Another tight one. I don’t think there’ll be a concerted, massive push for Boseman here like we’ll see at the Oscars, and Hopkins has never won a Globe.

Hamilton winning Comedy/ Musical is such a Globes thing that I think I’ll have to predict it.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204046382

Original

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Promising Young Woman

3. Minari

4. Mank

5. Judas and the Black Messiah

Adapted

1. Nomadland

2. One Night in Miami

3. The Father

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. News of the World

Top 4 in Original are safe. Judas looks poised to late-break and overcome Sound of Metal, WGA recognition for both is good but more-so for Judas because it signifies that it is rising.

Top 4 in Adapted also pretty safe. News of the World seems like the safest choice here, I think it’s getting enough notices for its screenplay to suggest an Ending Things/ First Cow surprise is less likely than it appeared not too long ago.

I think the BP frontrunner will win their respective races, which would make the BP reveal quite tense. PYW seems the likeliest surprise in Original, although I’m keeping an eye on Minari which could rise here and will need to if it’s to make a sizeable dent in the BP race. Nomadland is less secure than Chicago 7, but they seldom reward adaptations of released plays (the last to win was Driving Miss Daisy) – Miami might be the likeliest competitor because Powers has the narrative of also writing Soul, but it’s hard to say between the three play adaptations which is closest to Nomadland.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204044121

wolfali wrote:

IMO there are no spoilers to this top 10 from films I haven’t listed. I think the last three slots depend on how many contenders make it in to Best Picture and which ones of <i>Sound of Metal</i>, <i>News of the World</i> and Judas and the Black Messiah do and which don’t.

Generally agree, but no chance for One Night and Miami? I think it’s vulnerable but surely it has to be in the conversation, at least as a possible spoiler.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204044071

Melvinezq wrote:

Honestly, I’m kind of irritated by Mank-The Irishman comparison. The Irishman deserved that trophy though (so did Parasite and Marriage Story). It is generally seen as one of the better movie by Scorsese (who always make great films), even better than The Departed. Mank is in a totally different situation. Yes, it’ll be nominated in many technical categories, but it won’t ever be called as one of Fincher’s best.

I agree with you on the quality of the films being very different. The Irishman is miles better, so it’s kind of reductive and annoying to equate them. But I think the comparison sort of holds up in the way people are intending it as a metric of how they’ll perform at the Oscars; majorly buzzy Netflix films which will get double-figure nominations but go home with little. If anything, the comparison is unfair to Mank when you look at it this way, because I’m pretty sure it has a Production Design win locked and it could also win some other techs and Supp. Actress. As a loose comparison of Oscar chances, though, it does hold up.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 398 View Predictions]

#1204042961

Picture

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Minari

4. Promising Young Woman

5. Mank

6. The Father

7. One Night in Miami

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9. News of the World

Next in line: Judas and the Black Messiah, Sound of Metal

I think News of the World gets in over Judas and Sound of Metal just because I think it will be too strong via nominations elsewhere. Judas could certainly late-break, but right now it seems like it has maybe faltered with its release date. Sound of Metal I’m still not sure on. Certainly less sure than I am on News of the World getting at least Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design, Score and Sound and being in strong contention for Director, Screenplay and Editing. Just seems like a film that will have too much support from various branches for others to compete, although I could be wrong because it doesn’t seem to be gaining as much passion as it might need compared to Judas and Sound of Metal. That said, I think a lot of older voters will enjoy it and aren’t necessarily as visible with their passion. The other 8 are going pretty strong and will likely stay as my Top 8 until nomination day.