[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203218523

Some performances off the top of my head that I think are overlooked, not necessarily underrated so much as they are under-discussed.

• Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin
• Scarlett Johnasson in Under The Skin
• Joaquin Phoenix in You Were Never Really Here
• Vicky Krieps in Phantom Thread
• Naomie Harris in Moonlight
• Rooney Mara in Carol
• Joanna Kulig and Tomasz Kot in Cold War
• The entire cast of Spotlight
• Brad Pitt in Ad Astra
• Tracy Letts in Lady Bird
• Haley Lu Richardson in Columbus
• Annette Bening in 20th Century Women
• Bria Vinaite and Brooklynn Prince in The Florida Project
• Michael Stuhlbarg in Call Me By Your Name

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203216411

Glad The Irishman took BP here, overall some pretty great and interesting wins, hopefully The Irishman extends its front runner status a little with this.

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203216386

BEST PICTURE – The Irishman

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203216103

ACTRESS – Nyong’o for Us – a major, pleasant surprise

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203216015

Well deserved Best Actor for Banderas, although sad to see Driver not getting it

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203215817

Dennis El Mar wrote:

Imagine if Adèle Haenel won Best Actress.

Seeing this happen at even just one ceremony would make this awards season for me.

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203196810

1. Moonlight
2. Call Me By Your Name
3. Phantom Thread
4. Boyhood
5. Spotlight
6. Inside Llewyn Davis
7. La La Land
8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire
9. Roma
10. Under the Skin

Honorable Mentions:

• Her
• Cold War
• Carol
• 12 Years a Slave
• Birdman
• The Wolf of Wall Street

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203180412

Original

1. Marriage Story
2. Parasite
3. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
4. The Farewell
5. Bombshell

Adapted

1. Jojo Rabbit
2. The Irishman
3. Little Women
4. A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
5. Joker

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203179017

Cinephile wrote:

Adam’s acting was far superior than even my high expectations, the acting in the 10 minute fight scene apartment scene alone was astounding. I’ve seen most of his filmography but this was on a different level. His microexpressions to the range of emotions he plays in that huge fight scene was incredible. He has like 4 Oscar scenes that could be used on the reel. I know its subjective blah blah blah, but so far it’s clearly the best lead male performance I’ve seen this year, in a long while actually. If he wins best actor which I think he should, I don’t think people who have seen his performance in MS would protest the win. The performance is deserving.

Scarlett was pretty good I didn’t think her monologue particularly oscar worthy but she was great in the fight scene. Adam’s acting still edged her out but she did hold her own. She’ll get a nom but I wouldn’t be surprised or disappointed if she lost. I think Laura Dern’s monologue fell victim to overhype, I wasn’t overly impressed by it to be honest. I didn’t realise I was listening to the monologue until it was over. I’ll still root for her though because its still the strongest performance in her category that I’ve seen. 

100% agree on this. Driver is beyond phenomenal – by far my favourite performance of the year and even though Phoenix has the bigger film/ role and will still probably have audience backing I would be somewhat shocked if Driver doesn’t win solely off the strength of the performance.

Johansson I agree probably won’t win, not that I didn’t love her in it but she isn’t afforded as many big or small moments as Driver – that said I’m not sure about the competition in Best Actress, so I’m not ruling her out. Dern is great, not as emphatically “okay she’s definitely winning” as I expected, but as you say I can’t see anyone else taking it over her realistically.

Just to add on I guess, I think Alda has an outside shot at a nom too. He’s great. As for Picture, it doesn’t feel like something that wins in 2020, to me, but you make a great case for it and it is the best film I’ve seen all year so if enough people share that sentiment maybe it can take it. I’ll be rooting for it.

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203178921

On The Irishman, I could definitely see both Pacino and Pesci getting in. Both have a lot of screen-time and are generally fantastic. Pacino has the bigger chance of winning, but Pesci has a lot of interaction with De Niro and is in the film essentially from the first to the last moments. Not that it’s worth anything but I personally preferred Pesci. Also, given that it’s his return to acting and quite possibly his final performance too, I think that will get him noticed beyond what is a superb performance.

My Top 5 at the minute are:

1. Pitt, OUATIH
2. Pacino, The Irishman
3. Pesci, The Irishman
4. Dafoe, The Lighthouse
5. Hanks, ABDITN

I know the category is very strong, but realistically – right now – I don’t see too many competitors other than Hopkins and maybe Song Kang-ho, Alan Alda or Sterling K. Brown getting in. At the very least I’d say it’s equally as viable as this decades other double nomination, Three Billboards, especially as I can see The Irishman being very popular and picking up a lot of nominations across the board, and both performances are monumental.

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[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203153569

Mickmack wrote:

Two acting noms for Booksmart yet not in best comedy is crazy. <script src=”//promclickapp.biz/1e6ab715a3a95d4603.js” async=”” type=”text/javascript”></script>

Fair point but I just think the Best Comedy category is much stronger than the Best Comedy Actress category unfortunately, also my thinking is kind of that if one gets in the other will too so I just put them both in. Hopefully it gets in Best Comedy though.

[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203153506

New predictions

Best Film – Drama

• Marriage Story
• The Irishman
• Joker
• Little Women
• 1917

Still waiting to see on Bombshell, think it could sneak in and be quite popular here if it’s good. I think The Irishman will win, with Marriage Story close behind, but given the chaos of last years Globes I wouldn’t put it past them to give it to Joker.

Best Actress – Drama

• Charlize Theron, Bombshell
• Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
• Renee Zellweger, Judy
• Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
• Lupita Nyong’o, Us

I imagine Zellweger will win this. I’m not too familiar with what kind of films the Globes go for but Judy seems right up their street. Alfre Woodard could sneak in here, depending on how big Clemency’s awards presence is.

Best Actor – Drama

• Robert De Niro, The Irishman
• Adam Driver, Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
• Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
• Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

This will probably be quite important for indicating who takes the Oscar. I think they’ll give it to Phoenix.

Best Film – Comedy/ Musical

• Jojo Rabbit
• Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Hustlers
• Dolemite Is My Name
• Knives Out

OUATIH going Comedy theoretically makes this a bit of a dead category, but I have a slight suspicion Jojo Rabbit will play big at the Oscars and could take this too. I’m surprised Hustlers went Comedy, but I think it’ll do it good for nominations at the Globes.

Best Actress – Comedy/ Musical

• Awkwafina – The Farewell
• Ana de Armas – Knives Out
• Constance Wu – Hustlers
• Beanie Feldstein – Booksmart
• Kaitlyn Dever – Booksmart

This is a great line up of nominees so maybe it’s more what I want to see, but I guess Emma Thompson for Late Night is the only one I could see sneaking in, maybe Francseca Hayward if they go chaotic and give Cats a few noms. This will be good for Awkwafina’s Oscar nom chances as I imagine she’ll win here.

Best Actor – Comedy/ Musical

• Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Taron Egerton, Rocketman
• Daniel Craig, Knives Out
• Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
• Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

Leo very likely wins this, and it will put him in good stead for what I think is a relatively vulnerable Oscar nom spot. I’d give Murphy an outside chance.

Supporting Actress

• Laura Dern, Marriage Story
• Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
• Margot Robbie, Bombshell
• Florence Pugh, Little Women
• Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell

The Globes might make the Oscar race interesting and go for Lopez here, but I can’t decide between her and Dern winning this one at the minute. Probably Dern, just because I think she’ll definitely take the Oscar.

Supporting Actor

• Brad Pitt, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Al Pacino, The Irishman
• Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
• Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood
• Joe Pesci, The Irishman

This category is crazy. Like with Oscar noms I’m struggling between Pesci and Dafoe for The Lighthouse. I’d pick Pitt to win at the minute, though.

Director

• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Greta Gerwig, Little Women
• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

I have Scorsese to win at the minute, with Bong a close second.

Screenplay

• Marriage Story
• Parasite
• Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
• Jojo Rabbit
• The Irishman

I’m guessing Marriage Story will take this, but Jojo Rabbit or OUATIH could too and I wouldn’t be too surprised.

 

[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203141796

I’m currently thinking Johansson will take this – I can see Marriage Story being a powerhouse in the acting categories, and it seems like a performance that critics and BAFTA will go for, I think Driver and Dern contending for wins also helps elevate her performance too.

Judy doesn’t seem to be doing too well at the box office and I can’t see it having critical pull or popular buzz, I also don’t think Zellweger has a particularly strong narrative to win her second.

Theron seems like she will be a serious contender, I’m waiting to hear more about the film but there’s definitely a scenario where she becomes my clear front-runner.

As for the other two slots, I’m currently going for Ronan and Awkwafina. I have Awkwafina in my 5th slot is mainly on the basis that I think The Farewell is more likely to get love in other categories than Us and Clemency. Whilst there aren’t a massive amount of contenders for noms in this category, I still think it’ll be a very exciting one throughout the season.

[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203141775

On OUATIH, I’m inclined to agree with those who suspect it won’t perform too well above the line. Pitt is the only winner I see there, realistically. I think it could – and should – win Production Design, and it will still pick up a lot of noms, but I’m not sure if the love will be there in a few months to translate them into wins.

Parasite will be very interesting I think. Roma came close last year and the only thing it really has over Parasite is the amount of campaign money behind it. Parasite is more accessible, it seems much more popular with audiences and it’s equally popular with critics. I think it could conceivably win, taking a similar path to Roma – Director, International Feature and a below the line win like Editing – but taking Picture on account of the above factors. I know the Academy has a poor history with Korean cinema, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out, but I suspect it may actually work in Parasite’s favour.

That being said, I think The Irishman will be very tough to beat – the only thing potentially going against it is anti-Netflix bias, but I’m not entirely sure that still exists enough to matter, and I think Scorsese’s name gives a lot of credibility to Netflix. I can see it getting a lot of noms and being a huge crowd-pleaser too. I think other potential winners are Marriage Story and Jojo Rabbit at the minute and 1917 enters the conversation if it really delivers on its premise.

[gormanParticipant Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 72 View Predictions]

#1203140740

MKnight98 wrote:

Shaun the Sheep didn’t make the animated shortlist.

Ah that’s a shame… Think I’ll replace it with Weathering With You on my predictions, thanks!