[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203373042

I’d say Washington and Blanchett definitely will, probably within the next 10/15 years at least. Hanks is pretty likely. I think De Niro could also do it with a couple more meaty roles as I doubt anyone would be opposed to giving him a third.

I can’t really see anyone else doing it except maybe Mahershala Ali who has age and a knack for picking good projects on his side, but it’d be a little crazy if he won his third anytime soon. McDormand could too actually, but I’d still have her on the ‘surprising’ side of things unlike Denzel, Blanchett and Hanks.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203372057

I’d say Get Out, Moonlight and Parasite do a pretty strong job of defining the 2010s. All three capture a specific mood and tackle themes that have been prescient throughout the decade in ways that only films of the 2010s could do. Obviously all three draw on classic inspirations but they’re all also fairly modern in their style and how the approach their genres/ stories.

The Social Network also does quite a good job of this, and it’s interesting as a 2010 film because it captures the transition between decades and still manages to be pretty prescient at forecasting what’s to come. Maybe a little more left-field of a pick is The Master which, whilst being a period piece, touches on themes of alienation, identity and the manipulation of vulnerable people which I think PTA knew were vital currents in 2010s culture. Her would be on my list for similar reasons.

I think in 20 years or so we’ll also look back at the MCU films as a product of the 2010s, for good or ill. I personally hope it’s a trend that’s passed by or changed a bit by then, but they’ve definitely defined the tastes of audiences for the past ten years, which will be shown in box office figures for decades to come.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203368807

My list is pretty similar to Foolio’s, except less organised/ thorough. The only one’s of the bunch I’d argue have a better chance than you’re saying right now are Minari, C’mon C’mon and Soul. I also have French Dispatch up closer to front runners for now, largely just because of the prestige associated with the cast/ Anderson.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203365961

I think quite a few will win one in their career; Driver certainly will, I think Robbie, Chastain, Hawkins and Johansson probably will too. As for who will win first, I can see Robbie nabbing a Supporting win sooner rather than later so I’ll go for her.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203364776

1. Adam Driver
2. Antonio Banderas
3. Joe Pesci
4. Florence Pugh
5. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
6. Saoirse Ronan
7. Leo DiCaprio
8. Brad Pitt
9. Al Pacino
10. Joaquin Phoenix
11. Tom Hanks
12. Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
13. Laura Dern
14. Renee Zellweger
15. Jonathan Pryce
16. Anthony Hopkins
17. Charlize Theron
18. Margot Robbie

I haven’t seen Harriet or Richard Jewell.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203361859

Yeah I think a black director winning is a certainty. Spike Lee is my current favourite this year, and there are so many possible candidates who are either established or up and coming talents that it seems almost inevitable.

I can also see an LGBT director winning pretty easily; Sciamma, Almodovar, Haynes, Guadagnino, Dolan, Ford and more are all great directors who will have great decades. A female cinematographer seems pretty feasible too.

A couple of the others seem definitely possible (no above the line wins BP winner, actor doing a double) but they’re less feasible and seem like stuff the Academy would avoid more so now than ever.

The only two I’d rule out are an Animated film winning BP and a BP winner winning only BP and nothing else, although the preferential ballot could continue to churn out shocks and even result in one of these eventually.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203361056

fefface wrote:

Does The Green Knight have a shot at anything? Or is it coming out too early in the year?

I’d be quite surprised. It’s May release date and the general feel of the film make me think it’ll be a summer hit with the specific A24 target audience but won’t be an Awards player.

A24 also has a hectic looking slate and if I were to guess I’d say their focus will be on Minari, C’mon C’mon, Macbeth, On the Rocks and Red, White and Water all before The Green Knight. Even then their slate looks too packed and if they’re wise they’ll whittle it down to one or two major players from those 5.

I think the best The Green Knight can hope for Oscars-wise is a lone Cinematography nod a la The Lighthouse, but it looks like it’s going to be a fantastic film in another great year for A24 releases at least.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203356595

Sunset Boulevard, The Apartment and Network are my Top 3. Annie Hall’s is great too. I think my favourite of the decade is either Her or Parasite.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203356449

I think Lopez would’ve been the 5th nominee and Johansson would definitely have won for Jojo Rabbit. It would’ve been a slightly more interesting race though.

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203355055

Nikhil wrote:

I don’t follow. Will you explain this?

I think it’s due to Nightmare Alley set photos of Mara and Blanchett together which look like they’ve been taken from the set of a Carol sequel

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203352718

Matthew anzalone wrote:

Supporting actress: It seems like close might be the front runner right now. But my gut is telling me Ronan is gonna win the bafta and the oscar. Close gets everything else though.

I’m a huge Ronan fan and was elated when Colman won last year, but even I’m not sure I could take watching Close lose like this.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203352707

GregSprinkles wrote:

I agree that Cohen is a very talented actor. When he wants to do drama, he ends up pulling it off very well. Besides him, what other cast members of The Trial of the Chicago 7 are likely to have showy roles? I’ve heard several mentions of Jeremy Strong so I would assume him.

It’s hard to tell right now as I don’t know exactly what Sorkin will do with what is an incredible case/ time period. Honestly every character could be awards dynamite depending on how central they are in the film. For sure Cohen, Redmayne and Strong are playing brilliant people. I’d also keep an eye out for Mateen and Harrison Jr. who are playing Bobby Seale and Fred Hampton respectively, two people I personally find very captivating and either could be given an awards push if they’re prominent enough. For now I’d guess Cohen or Strong though, yeah.

Incidentally, I think Daniel Kaluuya may be playing Fred Hampton this year in another project, so I’d keep an eye out there too as he is a fascinating and tragic figure.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203352689

Both the above make good points on Blonde. I hadn’t heard it was going to be so experimental, but I still think it could work and I think Dominik is a pretty great director, although he probably isn’t Awards friendly. Michelle Williams did factor into my thinking though, so that may be a stumbling block. It just has the right mix of subject matter and star to be an early favourite for me, although if it isn’t a fairly conventional biopic the Academy may struggle to love it as much as I anticipated.

mansos wrote:

When it comes to The Trial of the Chicago 7, I actually believe Sacha Baron Cohen has the biggest chance for a nomination. Abbie Hoffman who he’s playing is quite the special guy and considering his actions during the trial, he’ll be the standout character.

I agree with you here, Abbie Hoffman is a fantastic character and an incredibly interesting figure, plus I’ve felt Cohen has a real powerhouse performance in him that he’s going to give at some point and he seems a great fit to play Hoffman too. Probably one of my most anticipated performances this year, and I assume it’ll be pretty central to the film.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203352620

My early bets for the Lead Acting category winners are Hopkins and de Armas, both actors/ roles seem pretty Awards-ready in their different ways and they’re the only major categories I can pick any sort of early favourites in. I could see Supporting wins for Close and for one of the actors in Da 5 Bloods or Trial of the Chicago 7 too, if I had to guess.

For Picture I can’t see a standout yet, really, which is to be expected of course, but I think it may be another year where we don’t quite know the winner even exists yet. My prediction for now is The French Dispatch, but just as a placeholder really.

My predicted Director line-up kind of matches with what I think a few of the early BP favourites are, with Fincher, Anderson, Lee, Villeneuve and Del Toro my current picks.

I think we might see Dune and French Dispatch owning the below the line stuff – between them, and possibly Tenet, I think we could see Cinematography, Editing, Sounds, Production Design, Costumes, Make-up, Visual Effects and even Score being shared.

Of course most of this will be way off and I’m looking forward to all predictions being uprooted when actual contenders emerge, but these are my best guesses for now.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 113 View Predictions]

#1203333615

FYC:

• Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara for Carol
• Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name
• Phantom Thread
• Boyhood
• Inside Llewyn Davis

Reply