[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204711741

Yeah, Belfast isn’t out yet. It lost ground but it needed the Screenplay win, which it got. I don’t think LP or DLU are out of that conversation yet but Belfast is ahead as far as I’m concerned. That’s the win it needs most, preferential ballot can aid it too.

I do think WSS can win on a preferential ballot, but I think it would need to take Director realistically, which seems out of the question at the minute. I do think it’s actually going to challenge Dune in lots of techs but it has no clear route to Picture on that route even if it does win a few.

TPOTD is a firm frontrunner for now, though. I imagine it reminds many quite a lot of last year when Nomadland was expected to be given the cold shoulder but instead got its sweep kickstarted.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204707413

Best Motion Picture-Drama:
Belfast

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Drama:
Mahershala Ali – Swan Song

Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama:
Kristen Stewart- Spencer

Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
Don’t Look Up

Best Actor in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!

Best Actress in a Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical:
Alana Haim- Licorice Pizza

Best Supporting Actor:
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress:
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Best Director:
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Best Screenplay:
Belfast

Best Animated Feature Film:
Encanto

Best Foreign Language Film:
Parallel Mothers

Best Original Score:
Dune – Hans Zimmer

Best Original Song:
No Time to Die

Found most of these pretty difficult. It’s a very competitive year and the Globes could well be at their most absurd point yet so most categories feel like they have at least 3 possible winners. I’m going with Ali for no reason beyond absurdity.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204699767

Having now seen Licorice Pizza I’m now not sure it’s win competitive. Similarly to when I watching Lost Daughter, I found myself loving it but also questioning it’s chances in some categories. It’s quite unwieldy and offbeat, with no plot and few other hallmarks of what you’d expect to see to Picture. I agree we’re in a time where the Academy is diversifying what it looks at for Picture wins, but even still this doesn’t feel like that. Still, I think it gets in and will end up in the top half.

I think PTA will make Director but I’m a little less confident than I was before – it’s showy, technically impressive and personal, which is good for his chances, but it’s not certain he’s in. Its best chance at a win is in Original Screenplay, but because it lacks that through-line plot and is quite freewheeling in its structure that may turn voters off. I think Cooper misses now – he’s great but hardly in it. I think Haim has a very solid chance of getting in, though – I can see that being a performance some voters are passionate about and she’d definitely be on my ballot. It’s a feasible 6th or 7th in Cinematography and Editing, I think – it’ll get in one or both if there’s passion there, but I could see it missing both if not.

Predicting 3-4 noms feels a little low for it, though.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204695844

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Still predicting DeBose to be this season’s sweep. Moreno I think gets in on the back of her film looking much stronger than Passing right now – she also has a fairly meaty role in my opinion, and a big, memorable song. Negga could get in based on passion for her performance – it’s amongst the best of the year and is getting great buzz in some quarters, think it’s very tight. Buckley could spring a shock, was personally really impressed with her in TLD, but I doubt it.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204695839

ArtIsntEasy wrote:

Did anyone else here think that Gaby Hoffman was strong in C’MON C’MON? At this point I know it would never happen, but she has easily been one of my favorite Supporting contenders that I have seen thus far.

Yeah extremely strong. She’d be 2nd on my personal ballot behind DeBose.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204695081

I’d second The Handmaiden, Y Tu Mama Tambien and Mullholland Drive mentions.

I think Black Swan, Don’t Look Now, Crash, Raw, Moonlight, Woman in the Dunes, Carol, The Graduate and Portrait of a Lady on Fire have great ones too.

If I had to pick a top three probably The Graduate, Mullholland Drive and Crash.

X

Reply

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204694062

musterd wrote:

The Lost Daughter has been in top 10 on Netflix for a number of countries all weekend and Olivia has been trending on Twitter. It’s divisive – those that love it really love it and appreciate feeling seen / that the film dares to explore something rarely touched on in film, and those that don’t don’t which is fine but it being on Netflix has far more people watching it than if it was solely theatrical followed by VOD.

Yeah it’s currently #2 among films on Netflix in the UK which is relatively strong and has held well since it released. Also where Colman will get much of her support from, so that bodes well for her chances.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204694049

wrote:

yeap babe…it remains about Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody …backlash the critics with audience praise The power of Audience

Like I said explicitly in the original post, the rare examples where voters and critics diverge gain the most attention and generate the most controversy. They don’t happen often – critics praised Hopkins, Phoenix, Oldman and Affleck highly and you need only look at McDormand winning last year (and Zellweger, Colman, McDormand, Stone, Larson, Moore, Blanchett, Portman before that) to realise voters often go for Actress winners who have been highly praised by critics too.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204694011

wrote:

uhhhh ….Academy is not for critics ….they’re audience…

It’s strange to view these are such binary and opposite things when the vast majority of above the line wins in recent years have broadly been highly praised by critics and audiences alike. The divisive wins draw more attention and the general nature of awards season does make things seem more polarised but in reality most winners tend to be well-received in critics reviews and awards. There’s really a massive crossover between nominations at critics circles and industry awards.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204693985

Kent Adams wrote:

The last Best Actress to win with that low of an Audience Score was Meryl Streep at 51 percent for the GA score. Lost Daughter is even lower than that at 43! No way Colman is winning. She will get her 2nd Oscar eventually, just not for a movie that the GP loathes.

I don’t think many think she’s in pole position to win, although I do think she could win the BAFTA and the reception to her performance has been more positive than the reception to the overall film.

Also – is Rotten Tomatoes really that indicative of general audience feeling? I feel like there’s quite a limited profile of people who actually have profiles there and use it actively. Plus, it literally only has 250+ ratings and they aren’t even verified. A 6.8 on IMDb from 10000 ratings is much better and more useful, as is its 3.6 on Letterboxd, but even those aren’t really that representative of what voters think.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204693922

Lil Tony wrote:

Olivia Colman is not getting nominated. Give it up

Not sure I follow this beyond you not liking the film. She’s already been nominated at Globes and CC and has done well with critics. She’ll more than likely get in at BAFTA and has a strong chance of winning. SAG is the only possible stumbling block really and she’s by no means out of contention there. I completely understand why the movie isn’t for everyone and why it hasn’t gone over well with audiences but I think her performance is universally regarded as it’s strongest aspect. She’s also a new Academy favourite, with a win and nomination in the last three years, so she has existing backing and a fanbase that likes her. Plus, she’s beloved in Britain so will have good backing from that bloc of voters.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204693786

New year predictions

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
5. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Not really feeling Gaga and Chastain here at the minute, or rather I don’t think either of their films have momentum, although obviously they’re well in contention. Haim I’ve been seeing lots of acclaim for and I think this category will have at least one nominee from a Picture nominee and she’s most likely (Colman and Zegler are possible). Cruz may not have the momentum without an International submission but I think she’ll get in at BAFTA and also has arguably the most acclaim behind her when you factor in the Volpi win.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204693734

New year predictions

Picture

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. West Side Story
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Dune
6. Don’t Look Up
7. King Richard
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth
9. CODA
10. Nightmare Alley

Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Macbeth enters my predictions in Picture and Director. I’ve lost a little faith in Drive My Car, and I’m not sure Hamaguchi really fits the bill of the surprise directors we usually see get in there. I think Macbeth could go the way of Phantom Thread and overperform on expectations quite a bit, and Coen fits the profile of highly respected industry figures with Oscar history like PTA, Pawlikowski and Vinterberg who have snuck in here in the past. Hamaguchi is young and up and coming and I’m no longer confident enough voters will sit through and love a 3 hr slow burn international drama, however great I think it is.

Otherwise it’s pretty much the same. Nightmare Alley gets in at 10 because, whilst I loved it, I don’t think Lost Daughter will make it in and like I say I’ve also lost faith in DMC a bit. I see it making it on a similar path for Ford v Ferrari in terms of noms – a few techs and broad respect/ love for Del Toro just sliding in it in 10th.

I have The Power of the Dog winning both. Despite still feeling like it doesn’t have the profile of a Picture winner, I also think it’s probably winning Director, Adapted, Actor and Supporting Actor, so I find myself unable to predict anything else for now.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204693134

FreemanGriffin wrote:

It was communal. All these new technologies of fractured us and moved us away from communal experiences. We are increasingly in our small groups enjoying certain movies or television shows and not having the kind of conversations we used to have

Yeah I agree with this really. I suppose it relates to the plethora of choice available as well, though. I think especially during the pandemic viewing has become much more individual and fractured and despite the interconnectedness these mediums technically create the way conversations spread is still limited to niches, echo chambers, etc. There also just isn’t the same dialogue around films online – it might just be a personal thing but I find things tend to get extremely negative much quicker when conversation around a film is virtual (and being negative or controversial gets more engagement). A cursory glance at search results or comments sections about lots of films just makes reactions appear super negative and really doesn’t allow for nuance, grey areas or discussion. I think communal, organised viewing just lends itself to more positive and wide-reaching conversation. Plus, in cinemas you pay and expect to finish the movie and it goes without saying that you get a more rounded and proper view of a film if you watch it all – I swear at least 50% of negative reviews you see for streamed films include “couldn’t finish” or “had to watch in chunks”.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 889 View Predictions]

#1204693088

Babylonian wrote:

The fact is that screenwriting has become worse and TV writing has eclipsed it.

I don’t think this is true. Certainly not an objective or indisputable fact. I think TV offers a fairly different experience to film and is almost so different as to be incomparable.

I think a decline in cinema audiences (especially during the pandemic) and a monopolisation of cinemas by box office tentpoles has also hurt film. Until the pandemic I’d say films were able to generate strong buzz via cinemas and draw audiences fairly regularly. The years prior to COVID there were plenty of films that drummed up buzz and I think it’s valid to question whether films like 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Lighthouse, Uncut Gems, Green Book, The Favourite, etc. would have been half as buzzy as they were had they just dropped on streaming. Certainly with some of those I imagine they’d have been slaughtered by casual viewers.

Cinemas draw a specific audience genuinely interested in viewing the film and build hype in a different, more wide-reaching way. I’m certain Parasite wouldn’t have been half as big a sensation had it just gone straight to Prime. Whether people would give slower, more offbeat and non-English language films a chance when they can just turn it off if they’re bored after half an hour I doubt. TV is different – episodes progress at a different pace and usually last 40-60 minutes, plus TV has always been viewed exclusively from home so there are more institutions and structures in place to make sure word of mouth travels far.

Ultimately I don’t think home viewing is suited for films like The Lost Daughter and TPOTD to have their maximum effect and gain the best audience reviews, but that’s not the fault of filmmakers who are telling stories they want to tell and are still doing it very impressively. They shouldn’t have to cater to what the audience wants or what is best suited to their viewing arrangement in order to do that, really.