[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203806232

David wrote:

One Night is being overestimated by most. From someone who has seen the film, It’s an adapted and supp actor player that will probably get the 8th to last slot in bp.

Interesting. I’ve no clue what to think of most beyond Nomadland and Mank, ONIM seems like it has the ingredients to be a high-placed also-ran in BP, what do you think of King’s odds in Director?

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203806202

Picture

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Father
5. Soul
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. Minari
9. Judas and the Black Messiah
10. News of the World

Director

1. Fincher
2. Zhao
3. King
4. Zeller
5. Chung

Tried to roughly order by win likelihood but I’d have Mank and Nomadland far ahead in both categories at the minute. I like Chung as a passion pick in Director, I’m not sure the love will be there for Chicago 7/ Sorkin come April.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203803845

Eddy Q wrote:

We don’t even know the context of this ‘good terminator, bad terminator’ line, but it sounds like just some quirky metaphor used by Glenn Close’s character. Did she say it in real life? Is it in the book? I don’t know, but I’m loathe to consider it as evidence of the supposed crappiness of Hillbilly Elegy – not yet, anyway.

I’m not sure there is a good context for that line, and the murmurs around Elegy seem poor, but I agree with the implication that Close is still the front runner here. Her narrative is so strong that the film would have to be appalling for her to stand no chance at a win. Even if it’s bad, which I am expecting despite saying she’s the front runner, I think people will just go with her anyway because of the overdue sentiment.

I do fancy Seyfried to surprise and become a front-runner though, nothing concrete informing that, but it strikes me as a possible critics’ favourite and a scene-stealing role in a film for which all the signs are far more positive than Elegy.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203802670

Derp Boy wrote:

Everyone seems to have Leslie Odom Jr and Charles Dance in their predictions. You think one of these two will prevail as the early front runner?

I think so right now. It seems like a rather thin category and word of mouth for Odom Jr, and all evidence from Mank, suggest those will be the big players. Chicago 7 has a few, but no real standouts as yet, and I wouldn’t say anyone gave a winning performance. I think Strathairn will coat-tail for Nomadland. The 5th spot I have no idea, maybe a Chicago 7 or One Night in Miami double up, or Murray.

The only strong feelings for a win I have right now are toward Dance or Odom Jr. for sure. I’m waiting on a few films like Mank (for Burke, Pelphrey) and Judas and the Black Messiah, to predict anything confidently in this category though.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203802653

Monty wrote:

Chicago 7 feels like the type of movie which is winning best picture. I could totally see three of the Chicago boys nominated in this category, most likely Sacha Baron Cohen, Frank Langella and Mark Rylance. I hope Langella wins.

Strikes me as more of an Irishman type situation where it is widely respected enough to get plenty of nominations, but not beloved enough to win at the minute, but I’ve not seen other big players so can’t say for sure.

Think this will translate to supporting too though – two nominations (Cohen if he’s ran there, Rylance, Mateen if not) very feasible, but I still have Dance and Odom Jr. ahead of either.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203794744

Picture, Director, Actor, Supp. Actor (Seyfried), Supp. Actor (Dance), Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Production Design, Costumes, Hair/ Makeup and Score.

I’d give it an outside chance to double up in one or both Supporting Categories too. Collins looks good in the trailer, and there’s quite a few uncertain spots in that race. As has been said above, Burke is playing Orson Welles in a movie revolving around Citizen Kane. That category seems very weak, so a double up isn’t out of the cards there.

That would take it to 14/15 nods, which I think ties/ breaks the record – this isn’t too drastic to predict though, given it’s a massive film in a year with serious dearth of major contenders.

I think it will win quite a few – I currently have it first for Director, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design and Costumes.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203793202

wolfali wrote:

Wow if Hillbilly ends up flopping in acclaim or quality then Glenn may actually have some competition in Seyfried. She looks spectacular here. Lily Collins being credited third makes me confident in keeping her in my predictions. Not sure about Tom Burke though (he has no credit in the trailer!)

I’m thinking the same on Seyfried. Have a feeling she may win and it looks like the kind of role that’s going to steal quite a few scenes. May be down to the fact I have very low hopes/ admiration for Hillbilly Elegy, but still.

Burke I think is out of the race, the credits on the poster and trailer suggest Dance is the one to look out for in Supporting.

Generally speaking the trailer is great and I’m really excited for this – definitely going to be a big player – I’m thinking double figure noms and in good contention to win a lot of them – Picture, Director, Actor, Supp. Actress, Supp. Actor, Screenplay, Production Design, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/ Hair off the top of my head. If it does really well I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a record number of noms – on top of those listed I could imagine it doubling in on of the Supporting categories and getting in for sound.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203783366

Just seen this. Mixed but generally positive feelings towards it – aside from the ending, which I agree with others was terrible. I’d be baffled and shocked if this won Picture, and don’t see it being a major player in a lot of races – Screenplay the only I’d give it a shot to win. Quite a few noms though, probably.

Right now I’d predict it for the solid BP also-ran selection of – Picture, Actor (Baron Cohen), Original Screenplay and Editing. It has the potential to score a lot more – Hair & Makeup, Costumes, Director and one or two Supp. Actors come to mind. Supp. Actors wise I can see them cancelling each other out though – I think Rylance has the strongest shot there.

I’m definitely less taken by its Oscars chances after seeing it, but it’s so timely and solid that I’m sure it’ll feature heavily still.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203731424

In terms of likelihood of a nomination:

1. Hopkins
2. Oldman
3. Kaluuya
4. Lindo
5. Baron Cohen

Next in lines would probably be Redmayne, Ben-Adir, Hanks and Mikkelsen.

I still have Hopkins as a runaway winner, although Kaluuya could surprise. The only reason I don’t have him above Oldman in terms of nomination likelihood is the uncertainty around his placement and the fact Mank will probably be a bigger player. I view Oldman as akin to Leo last year – appears everywhere, but is never really discussed as a likely winner.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203724608

I think that the People’s Choice win for Nomadland is important in dispelling some of the early worries that it will be too subdued and small to be popular with Academy voters. All signs so far point to it being a crowd and critic pleaser that will be a major player at the Oscars – to win TIFF and Venice and be the centrepiece at NYFF can only bode well. I’m sticking with it for Picture and Adapted, I also think Zhao and McDormand have a very good chance to win too.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203715003

David wrote:

What is everyone’s best picture lineup as of right now considering if they start the 10 nominee rule as well this year?

1. Nomadland
2. Mank
3. One Night in Miami
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7
5. The Father
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
8. Dune
9. News of the World
10. Soul

The French Dispatch is in if it gets a release date, but I’m leaving it out for now.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203714715

_m4gnu5_ wrote:

I’m predicting News of the World for an editing win currently, although that’s only because I’m not really sure what is going to win this award.

I’m predicting Mank right now. Just seems like it’ll win with Fincher movies getting 2 editing wins last decade and it likely being a big player in the race. Nominations for News of the World, Nomadland, Judas and the Black Messiah and Chicago 7. Dune/ French Dispatch probably getting in there if they release.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203712594

I’m glad they’ve chosen to run him in Lead because it would’ve been one of the more egregious category fraud nominees otherwise. Although I wouldn’t give him a chance against the raves Hopkins is getting, I think he’ll be competitive and probably secure a nomination.

I agree it means they’ll likely be going with Boseman in Supporting. Although they look like they have a ton of those already with Mank and Chicago 7, I’m sure Boseman can secure the nod and probably the win there. Oldman and Lindo seems like a strong pair of options in Lead.

Actor line-up currently Hopkins, Oldman, Lindo, Kaluuya and Hanks. Fairly confident Hopkins will win, with Kaluuya an outside bet.

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203704819

1. Close
2. Colman
3. Burstyn
4. Seyfreid
5. Zengel

Have a feeling about Zengel mostly influenced by her work in System Crasher and the critical reception she received for it. Ronan is probably more likely, though.

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1203703557

Someone needs to put Netflix in their place.

Zhao and McDormand time.