That’s not a strong trend. And I highly doubt that an unknown director is going to pull off a win this year especially with no major festival hype to push him or her to the forefront like Joon-Ho. It’s wiser to bet on someone overdue.
Nolan or Villeneuve.
Warner Bros. built a huge campaign behind of “Joker”, it had the blockbuster effect, it got a prestige vibe because it won Venice, etc etc etc… I think the nom was not a product of a political choice, but the product of a huge campaign that paid off. If the director’s branch went political they would go for Gerwig (who was exceptional and she would become the first woman to be nominated twice in this category) to avoid backlash
They loved Joker hence 13 noms. You know that a movie is “well, we have to nominate it but whatever” if it scores a Picture nom without a single other above the line nomination (coughthatothercomicbookflickcough). Joker had real passion. Marketing alone can’t buy you that.
