[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205254795

that was then.

[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205254793

Woman-centric movies collapsed because there are too many of them and all are average and forgettable so no wonder suprior woman-centric movies EEAAO and TAR hold strong. voters rally around 1 or 2 not 10.

Objectively speaking:

Women Talking is boring and revolves around a very niche culture that is incomprehensible and uninteresting to most people. It’s a tough sell. Also, Banshees is a superior “talky” so voters can compare and shun the inferior one.

BPWF and Woman King are eating into each other’s votes with BPWF currently having an edge due to locked acting winner  cause voters love Queen Ramonda and don’t Woman King and multiple techs many of whom WK missed. They are fighting for the last spots in Top 10 with some other movies.

She Said is a topic Hollywood wants to move on from. Not just Hollywood. Audience rejected it as well.

Till is Lifetime, too small and if I’m mistaken released close to BPWF.

Nothing surprising here.

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[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205254786

Bassett will win BAFTA because BAFTA will award Banshees in other big categories so they can spread the wealth and acknowledge the frontrunner. Banshees will win at least Picture, Actor and Script. Farrell is locked and loaded here so they don’t have to award Condon too.

[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205254771

Lil Tony wrote:

She also wasn’t a clear lead in The Help and Ma Rainey

Apples and oranges. She was a co-frontrunner with Streep when she competed with The Help. She wasn’t going to miss. Oscars 2021 had no frontrunner so it was up for grabs category and the year was barren thanks to covid-19. OTOH, Blanchett is the frontrunner with Yeoh as challenger, both from strong movies. Everyone else is an also-run aka thanks for participating and thus vulnerable to getting snubbed in favor of a passion pick.

While I don’t think she will be the snub of the category, there’s no passion for her performance beyond checking the name box, nor for her movie that everyone pretends to like yet is obviously getting clobbered by BPWF in techs that WK was suppose to show up in, plus that PGA nom for BPWF where WK was also expected to appear. There’s no doubt that these 2 movie are eating into eahc other’s votes but BPWF has an advatange due to locked SA winner aka Yass Queen Slay (Woman) King and more techs. However, other 2 also-runs don’t fare better. DeArmas movie is openly disliked so playing an icon is her only hope to stay affloat. Deadwyler has the performance but her movie has proven too small to matter. So, IMO, Blanchett and Yeoh are safe but all the rest are up for grabs and surprises.

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#1205254500

Yeoh’s main problem is Quan. he’s going to win so he is stealing a bit of her thunder and AMPAS may spread the wealth. As others pointed out, 2 acting wins from the same movie are rare. Also, EEAAO is the frontrunner and stands a good chance in Director and Original. So since supporting actor is locked, there may be less urgency to award another actor/actress. I get that she has the best narrative but many voters don’t vote for narrative. Also, it’s the year with so many veterans whose time has finally come, and 2 are locked to win (Quan and Bassett). That may not extend to other 2 categories though both Fraser and Farrell stand a good chance against newcomer Butler.

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#1205254494

BPWF is terrible. It’s busy setting up spin-offs, half of it is a shoe-horned pilot for Iron Heart show, and the villain is laughable. Wants to kill a teenager, lmao! Just pure trash.No wonder it didn’t create cultural movement unlike the first, which is reflected in average legs and big boxoffice drop from the first. People just didn’t like it all that much, no surprise.

Bassett was fire, though.

there are no challengers. Bassett will sweep SAG and BAFTA and win AMPAS.

[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205254490

FreemanGriffin wrote:

Babylon is 10th in the odds and is the only one in the top ten I am not predicting – I am going with a longshot: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Bassett is a frontrunner and it’s also a frontrunner for Costumes and Production Design; it’s a wonderful movie; and it’s really weird that it isn’t higher ranked. 

It isn’t wonderful at all. It’s a pilot for a D+ show and a set up for 5 different spin-offs. It’s barely a movi. It’s a promo reel for future projects. And like I said it had none of the advantages the first had. Tepid boxoffice in comparison to the first (and TGM and AWOW) shows that people simply didn’t like it all that much and that it didn’t create a cultural wave of support that propelled the first one. It was rightfully ignored in Picture before PGA’s bafling nomination. It could get in by coattailing Bassett but I really hope that doesn’t happen especially at the expense of AWOW.

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#1205254470

Nameizmann wrote:

Avatar missing BP is a possibility. Though no great alternative

Disney campaigning 2 blockbusters isn’t doing it any favors. Avatar deserves the nom more than BPWF but since the latter will have  Supporting Actress winner that might give it an edge, even though the movie is nothing – not a cultural phenom, not a boxoffice phenom (made way less than the first), missed precursors that the first didn’t (GG, CC, SAG Ensemble, WGA). At least Avatar is too big too ignore (will make 2 billion this weekend) and a marvel to behold.

Safe:

EEAAO – projected winner

Banshees

Elvis

Fabelmans

TAR

TGM
_________________________________
On the rise:

The Whale

AQOTWF – foreign spot? streaming spot?
______________________________________
who the heck knows?

AWOW?

BPWF?

Women Talking?

Woman King?

Triangle of Sadness?

RRR?

Glass Onion?

Decison to Leave?

Other?

 

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[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205254458

This category is locked. Mystery is only who 4 nominess will be. One has to be delusional not to see that Bassett has this. Sweep incoming. Terrible movie BTW but she was a saving grace. I just hope she won’t coattail her movie to Picture nom cause it’s really subpar, is just another sequel not a pop cultural phenom that the first was and boxoffice is little over half of what the first made so not even too big to ignore. I see no point of nominating it, don’t know what PGA was thinking.

Controversial opinion: Williams wouldn’t win even if she campaigned in supporting from the start. Industry is backin Bassett not because Williams went lead but because they feel it’s her time. Also, Williams movie isn’t as strong as its studio thought and her nom depended on the strength of it. Bassett got away with crapola cause that made her stand out even more.

it’s over. This category and supporting actor are locked loaded sealed and delivered.

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#1205238510

Victor wrote:

I’m also sad for The Boys but that’s what Amazon gets for airing in June when they could’ve easily aired at March-April and got some Emmy love

And why do you think it was so? Amazon wanted all awards for their over-budgeted, creatively bankrupt mediocrity so they sacrificed The Boys (early release, half-arsed afterthought campaign) and put all effort in trying to make that 1 billion dollar Fetch happen. And Fetch was not going to happen. It’s over. It flopped with all big Guilds so far and even missed some techs that it shouldn’t have missed in theory. There’s no ethusiasm for it and it isn’t for the lack of trying cause Amazon really campaigned its arse off.  It’ll be DOA with Emmys except some techs.

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#1205184713

Curious to see what AFI makes of HOTD. It’s been flopping hard with critics list. They jumped on Andor wagon as if there could be only 1 genre show, and CC snubbing Considine in favor of Luna, who isn’t even the show’s Top 3 performer (Skarsgaard, Serkis and Reily are way ahead) is unforgivable. So lets see how the industry feels about the show.

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[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205181412

In alphabetical order:

Avatar:TWOW

Banshees of Isherin

Elvis

EEAAO

Fabelmans

Glass Onion

Something Foreign (RRR? Decision to Leave? Triangle of Sadness?)

TAR

Top Gun Maverick

Women Talking

Can’t think of the 10th.

 

 

[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205180388

Allan Veríssimo wrote:

The Lord of the Rings got a nomination: Ismael Cruz Córdova in Supporting Actor.

Can someone please explain to me how this complete waste of space got nominated? He did NOTHING worthy of awards on the show. Lame acrobatics, expressionless staring, am I missing something?

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[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1748 View Predictions]

#1205177441

kamila wrote:

As time passes, I just don’t think Ackie is in this anymore.

Au contraire, she’s very much in. The lineup needs an ingenue. Some late breaker always gets in and she is in better position than Robbie cause her movie will be huge.

I expect Ackie to miss SAG due to late screener but get AMPAS nom over some typical SAG pick.

Fabelmans is not winning. They didn’t give it to ROMA and Belfast, they won’t give it to Fabelmans even if that one is more accessible to AMPAS (Hollywood, no accents that require subtitles, not an interminable slog and in foreign language to boot).

My bet is EEAAO – forget being divisive, rules and stats are meant to be broken – cause nothing else makes sense. After the Hallmark win, AMPAS will go for something totally opposite.

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#1205177439

LOL people who doubt Butler’s nomination. He’s in. His movie will be a Picture nominee. It’s AMPAS catnip and WB has nothing else so they’ll give it all to the campaign.