[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1205078192

forwardswill wrote:

Sorry sorry I normally start this thread but completely forgot because of the vote split ones. Thanks for creating.

No worries! I’ve always loved to look back at these after the ceremony.

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1205069604

As someone who thinks Squid Game stands a chance at sweeping the acting categories at the Emmys, I don’t think it’s ultimately going to come close to taking Series and I’m not sure why the Creative Arts have so many people reconsidering this.

Of the awards it brought home last night, half are for Stunts and VFX, and in both it wasn’t up against its competition for the main award.

Another one is for Yoo-mi, which was both deserving and somewhat expected: she was in most people’s top 2, and I personally never doubted her after seeing Ho-yeon win SAG – getting the nomination was her biggest hurdle and I think what Yoo-mi winning did is solidify Ho-yeon’s position in the race in case anyone still had doubts about her winning.

Finally, there’s the Production Design win that everyone could’ve seen coming even if it wasn’t quite locked. I can concede thinking Severance was a strong player here as well, but even then losing Editing with no vote splitting against Euphoria is easily a bigger sign of weakness than winning PD is a sign of strength.

And this is without mentioning how it missed nominations for Costumes, Music Composition and both Sound categories, where it was widely predicted to show up. I can understand now thinking it’s ahead of Severance, but Succession feels really safe to me.

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1205036919

String Cheese Theory wrote:

This is a ridiculous comparison. It took The Americans six seasons to get its two (non guest) acting and writing wins.

I didn’t say their journeys to such wins would necessarily be the same. The comparison stems from the fact they’re both shows with a relatively small amount of nominations that nonetheless managed/might manage to win two major awards due to passionate support and strong narrative.

Also, to answer wolfali, Abbott indeed seems like the frontrunner for Casting as well, and if it were to lose there I’d be surprised if the winner was anything other than Ted Lasso, which in that case would remarkably strengthen its position in the Series race, imo.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1205036822

I’m toying with the idea of Abbott pulling a The Americans and winning for both Writing and Lead Actor Actress, so probably coming close but ultimately falling short of taking Series due to a lack of BTL support. And yes, I’m considering Quinta taking Lead Actress because I figure the buzz is there for the actors branch, which was really receptive of the show to begin with, to rally behind Abbott and Quinta specifically, and Jean Smart might end up as the “unbeatable frontrunner until she wasn’t” of the season, a la Elisabeth Moss for S2 of The Handmaid’s Tale.

To continue the analogy with the 2018 race, I do think there’s a scenario where Ted Lasso ends up performing similarly to how The Handmaid’s Tale did with its sophomore season that year, in that the visibility and popularity within the Academy showcased by an improved performance in the nominations round, especially in regards to acting, eventually doesn’t translate in momentum or perceived urgency for the win and leads to a surprising, underwhelming haul.

It’s worth noting that despite how well it performed overall, Ted Lasso couldn’t get a second Writing nomination before Barry and What We Do in the Shadows or a second Directing nomination before Only Murders. Interestingly enough, failing to get a second Directing nomination before Ozark and Game of Thrones was also the only miss you could hold against The Handmaid’s Tale that year. Generally speaking, it’s rare that the show that ends up winning Series isn’t at least tied as the leader in nominations for Writing OR Directing, let alone both, if it had multiple submissions and some of its competitors managed to get multiple nods.

All of this being said, the one major thing that gives me pause in predicting something else to win Series so far is that Ted Lasso is still undeniably the most popular out of the shows in its category, whereas the Drama winner Handmaid’s lost against in 2018 was the biggest show on television, so in a scattered field it might just come out on top in the end.

Either way, setting aside Abbott as a wildcard in case the passion for it among its fans is THAT strong and/or a lot of voters had the chance to check it out and discover it just after the nominations, a possible upset would come down to Hacks vs. Only Murders: the industry clearly loves the former and it didn’t have any glaring miss as far as nominations go, the latter overperformed outside of Acting categories and is probably helped out by having what basically amounts to two seasons worth of material being considered by voters who are watching S2 as it airs, which might matter more than one thinks when you consider the frontrunner is predicted to win for a season that was literally airing while the previous Emmys were being held, to return to the “lack of momentum” factor.

I think Barry is comfortably fifth here and I don’t buy it as a threat for Series, it’s the kind of show that would only win in a really weak year because in a competitive field it’s always going to lose against the more traditionally comedic stuff, as voters have proven plenty of times already in the past. Regardless, while still having a strong showing it did show some cracks at the nominations stage and I’d argue the buzz is more with the newer shows, so I can’t see it even without considering the fact that it’s for most a borderline half-hour drama series competing in the wrong category.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1205012658

To me Only Murders feels like something that does great at the nominations round but lacks the passion to go all the way through with a win, so basically it’s a lot of people’s #2 or #3. As of now I’d put it behind Ted Lasso, Hacks and Abbott but it might definitely be closer to some of these than one would expect.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204986473

How do ties happen in the first round of voting again? Does it have to be a perfect match in amount of votes or do they just have to reach some threshold of vicinity?

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204975039

I liked MBB just fine this season and think Sadie Sink would be a deserving nominee, but I strongly doubt anyone from Stranger Things is getting nominated in acting this year.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204859204

Drama King wrote:

Does anyone know where to find the list of the actual producers nominated tonight? The nominee announcement still has “Eligibility Determination Pending” listed under many of the tv shows, nearly all of them actually: https://producersguild.org/motion-picture-and-tv-noms/

I think it was the same last year, then on the article they put up on their website revealing the winners they fixed it and listed every nominee.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204846242

24Kgirl wrote:

Just bringing up to the top with the awards tonight. On the comedy side, with Critics Choice liking to be first/new/different I can’t see Ted Lasso winning 4/5, repeating the Emmys and after they won 3/3 last year including series. I am feeling series to Hacks and maybe Einbinder finally comes in for her first win.

I agree Hacks can easily win this and if I had to bet on one category ending up in a tie, as oh-so-typical with this awards body, I’d go with the two Hannah’s in Supporting Actress.

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204819713

Switched to a Succession sweep in Drama, I figure it’s probably just that strong.

Most categories seem annoingly locked, Drama Actress and Limited Actor being exceptions. Hoping for some fun surprises there at least.

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204812033

JV wrote:

I think The Gilded Age’s going to do really well with actors (and not well with the rest of the Academy), so I’m getting those 100/1 odds on Carrie Coon.

This would be the best thing to happen at the Emmys in years if only in light of how they treated The Leftovers where she gave an all-time performance.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204810741

1. Jason Sudeikis
2. Ted Lasso
3. Kate Winslet
4. Jean Smart
5. Squid Game (stunts)
6. Jeremy Strong
7. Michael Keaton
8. Squid Game
9. Elisabeth Moss

I could easily change the last two before the ceremony

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204803897

JV wrote:

Just got the idea of Donald Glover getting the Bob Odenkirk/Larry David treatment… I don’t think it’s impossible.

I’d probably be predicting this if it weren’t for his main threat being… Nicholas Hoult, I guess? I do have Anderson ahead of him, though.

I’m going to wait for reviews, but I also have a hunch that Natasha Lyonne will be more vulnerable than assumed and could end up missing, it feels like Russian Doll premiered literal ages ago. Exactly how enthusiastic the reception will be is going to be decisive, imo.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204771077

wrote:

TMMM is back on the 18th. I’m saying goodbye to a nomination for Gomez. I was so rooting for her.

We been knew TMMM would be back in time for a while.

What’s going to help Gomez tremendously at the Emmys is that the unlimited ballot makes it easier for widely watched shows like Only Murders to get nominations as opposed to more niche, passion-driven ones: there might be a lack of an incentive to cast a vote for her when you have to pick five names only, but that problem doesn’t occur when you can check off as many names as you’d like.

Smart, Brosnahan, Ross are probably locks, Cuoco and especially Lyonne are pending but they should have baity material and enough visibility to make it, and finally Fanning and Rae have passion but their shows are not that strong. Oh definitely feels like a SAG thing only and there’s still a reasonable chance Einbinder is moved to Lead, in which case she’d likely take someone’s spot.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 41 View Predictions]

#1204707443

Motion Picture – Drama

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. CODA
5. King Richard

Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

1. West Side Story
2. Don’t Look Up
3. tick, tick… BOOM!
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Cyrano

Actor – Drama

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
4. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
5. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor – Comedy/Musical

1. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!
2. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
4. Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
5. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Actress – Drama

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Actress – Comedy/Musical

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
2. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
3. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
4. Emma Stone, Cruella
5. Marion Cotillard, Annette

Supporting Actor

1. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
5. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Supporting Actress

1. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
4. Ruth Negga, Passing
5. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
3. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
4. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
5. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Animated Film

1. Flee
2. Encanto
3. My Sunny Maad
4. Raya and the Last Dragon
5. Luca

Foreign Language Film

1. A Hero
2. Drive My Car
3. The Hand of God
4. Parallel Mothers
5. Compartment No. 6

Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The French Dispatch
4. Parallel Mothers
5. Encanto

Song

1. “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
2. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” – Respect
3. “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
4. “Be Alive” – King Richard
5. “Down to Joy” – Belfast

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