[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204707443

Motion Picture – Drama

1. Belfast
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Dune
4. CODA
5. King Richard

Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

1. West Side Story
2. Don’t Look Up
3. tick, tick… BOOM!
4. Licorice Pizza
5. Cyrano

Actor – Drama

1. Will Smith, King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
4. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
5. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor – Comedy/Musical

1. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!
2. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
4. Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
5. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Actress – Drama

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Actress – Comedy/Musical

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
2. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
3. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
4. Emma Stone, Cruella
5. Marion Cotillard, Annette

Supporting Actor

1. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
2. Troy Kotsur, CODA
3. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
4. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
5. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Supporting Actress

1. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
4. Ruth Negga, Passing
5. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
4. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
3. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
4. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
5. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Animated Film

1. Flee
2. Encanto
3. My Sunny Maad
4. Raya and the Last Dragon
5. Luca

Foreign Language Film

1. A Hero
2. Drive My Car
3. The Hand of God
4. Parallel Mothers
5. Compartment No. 6

Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The French Dispatch
4. Parallel Mothers
5. Encanto

Song

1. “No Time to Die” – No Time to Die
2. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” – Respect
3. “Dos Oruguitas” – Encanto
4. “Be Alive” – King Richard
5. “Down to Joy” – Belfast

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204707114

wolfali wrote:

This is an interesting prediction. What makes you lean this way if you don’t mind my asking?

I don’t buy The Morning Show winning anything and I’m not sure Rodriguez is quite as undeniable as we’d like to believe. Mainly though with the Globes I always try to predict some big upsets due to how unpredictable and full of surprises they tend to be, and a beloved actress with a lot of passion finally breaking through for her underseen but acclaimed show strikes me as something that could unexpectedly prevail here if the frontrunners have their share of weaknesses as I believe.

Other “longshots” I’m not predicting but still could see a scenario where they materialize are: Uzo Aduba in the same category, Omar Sy, Reservation Dogs, Anthony Anderson, Tahar Rahim, Kaitlyn Dever.

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204707048

Best Television Series – Drama

1. Succession (HBO)
2. Squid Game (Netflix)
3. Pose (FX)
4. Lupin (Netflix)
5. The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Best Actor – Television Series Drama

1. Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game (Netflix)
2. Jeremy Strong, Succession (HBO)
3. Omar Sy, Lupin (Netflix)
4. Billy Porter, Pose (FX)
5. Brian Cox, Succession (HBO)

Best Actress – Television Series Drama

1. Christine Baranski, The Good Fight (Paramount+)
2. MJ Rodriguez, Pose (FX)
3. Uzo Aduba, In Treatment (HBO)
4. Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
5. Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

1. Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
2. Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
3. Hacks (HBO Max)
4. Reservation Dogs (FX on Hulu)
5. The Great (Hulu)

Best Actor – Television Series Musical or Comedy

1. Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
2. Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
3. Anthony Anderson, Black-ish (ABC)
4. Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
5. Nicholas Hoult, The Great (Hulu)

Best Actress – Television Series Musical or Comedy

1. Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max)
2. Elle Fanning, The Great (Hulu)
3. Issa Rae, Insecure (HBO)
4. Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC)
5. Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBO Max)

Best Miniseries or Television Film

1. Dopesick (Hulu)
2. Mare of Easttown (HBO)
3. Maid (Netflix)
4. The Underground Railroad (Prime Video)
5. Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)

Best Actor – Miniseries or Television Film

1. Michael Keaton, Dopesick (Hulu)
2. Tahar Rahim, The Serpent (Netflix)
3. Ewan McGregor, Halston (Netflix)
4. Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)
5. Paul Bettany, WandaVision (Disney+)

Best Actress – Miniseries or Television Film

1. Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown (HBO)
2. Margaret Qualley, Maid (Netflix)
3. Jessica Chastain, Scenes from a Marriage (HBO)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha (National Geographic)
5. Elizabeth Olsen, WandaVision (Disney+)

Best Supporting Actor – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

1. Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO)
2. O Yeong-Su, Squid Game (Netflix)
3. Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
4. Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
5. Mark Duplass, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Best Supporting Actress – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

1. Andie MacDowell, Maid (Netflix)
2. Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO)
3. Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick (Hulu)
4. Sarah Snook, Succession (HBO)
5. Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204682722

At the moment I cautiously still have Selena at #5 at SAG, but I wouldn’t read too much into it if she were to miss – with six slots and the supporting performances out of the way at the Emmys, she could still be able to coattail to a nomination there just off of the show’s overall strenght.

This is how I think the Comedy Actress field is shaping out to be:

Locks
Jean Smart, Hacks

Near Locks
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Looking very good
Elle Fanning, The Great
Issa Rae, Insecure

Vying for the last 2 slots
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish

I’m thinking Ross is most likely in, so it will probably come down to how much of a splash The Flight Attendant and Russian Doll manage to make once they return. This is all assuming that Dead to Me doesn’t make it in time and that Einbinder won’t be moved here after the Globes nod, which is a possibility.

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204649455

Final predictions:

Best Television Series – Drama

Lupin (Netflix)
Pose (FX)
Squid Game (Netflix
Succession (HBO)
Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Best Actor – Television Series Drama

Brian Cox, Succession (HBO)
Michael C. Hall, Dexter: New Blood (Showtime)
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game (Netflix)
Jeremy Strong, Succession (HBO)
Omar Sy, Lupin (Netflix)

Best Actress – Television Series Drama

Uzo Aduba, In Treatment (HBO)
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime)
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Rosamund Pike, The Wheel of Time (Prime Video)
MJ Rodriguez, Pose (FX)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Call My Agent! (Netflix)
Hacks (HBO Max)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Best Actor – Television Series Musical or Comedy

Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Nicholas Hoult, The Great (Hulu)
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Best Actress – Television Series Musical or Comedy

Camille Cottin, Call My Agent! (Netflix)
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)
Sandra Oh, The Chair (Netflix)
Sarah Jessica Parker, And Just Like That… (HBO Max)
Jean Smart, Hacks (HBO Max)

Best Miniseries or Television Film

Impeachment: American Crime Story (FX)
Maid (Netflix)
Mare of Easttown (HBO)
The Underground Railroad (Prime Video)
The White Lotus (HBO)

Best Actor – Miniseries or Television Film

Paul Bettany, WandaVision (Disney+)
Michael Keaton, Dopesick (Hulu)
Ewan McGregor, Halston (Netflix)
Paul Rudd, The Shrink Next Door (Apple TV+)
David Thewlis, Landscapers (HBO)

Best Actress – Miniseries or Television Film

Olivia Colman, Landscapers (HBO)
Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha (Nat Geo)
Thuso Mbedu, The Underground Railroad (Prime Video)
Margaret Qualley, Maid (Netflix)
Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown (HBO)

Best Supporting Actor – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO)
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
William Jackson Harper, The Underground Railroad (Prime Video)
Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown (HBO)

Best Supporting Actress – Series, Miniseries, or Television Film

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO)
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick (Hulu)
Andie MacDowell, Maid (Netflix)
Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown (HBO)
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204649266

Motion Picture – Drama

Belfast
CODA
King Richard
The Last Duel
The Power of the Dog

Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick… BOOM!
West Side Story

Actor – Drama

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Actor – Comedy/Musical

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… BOOM!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Actress – Drama

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Actress – Comedy/Musical

Melissa Barrera, In the Heights
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Supporting Actor

Robin de Jesús, tick, tick… BOOM!
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Supporting Actress

Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Director

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick… BOOM!
Ridley Scott, The Last Duel
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Screenplay

Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog

Animated Film

Encanto
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Sing 2

Foreign Language Film

Drive My Car
A Hero
The Hand of God
Titane
The Worst Person in the World

Score

Cyrano
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Last Duel
The Power of God

Song

“Be Alive” – King Richard
“Colombia, Mi Encanto” – Encanto
“Down to Joy” – Belfast
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” – Respect
“No Time to Die” – No Time to Die

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204627671

Joe Langer wrote:

The show was so good. Both Martins keep showing you why they’re some of the best comedians in the business. I don’t know about Selena-she could totally not get nominated,there are some things about her performance which are not great choices. I think Amy is the real female standout of the show and if anyone gets nominated for that,it’s both the guys and Amy. But she will lose to Jean.

Hi, Joe.

Would you say that Selena or Amy are more or less likely to be nominated than other contenders such as Sandra Oh in The Chair (Netflix) or Elle Fanning in The Great (Hulu)? And did you find Selena’s performance to be generally polarizing among other voters?

Thank you for your time.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204590907

Seeing as Ho-yeon is now in the predictions center, I’ve been considering slotting her in and feel like her chances really come down to how much Netflix is campaigning for her individually and if she’ll be the only actress from Squid Game they’ll submit, since being the sole foreign name on the ballot will make her stand out with ease and that might very well be enough for several namechecks driven by the passion for the show as a whole.

I also wonder if we’re underestimating the possibiliy of a Tomlin or Fonda return in Comedy Actress; with a weaker field this time around they might have enough core supporters to prevail on someone between Oh and Temple, or even Fanning/Gomez. They strike me as names voters would resort to whenever they’re at a lack of alternatives, and I don’t think we can consider anyone but Smart and Waddingham a lock in this category.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204567458

I’m a bit wary of Succession just because a show already at its third season going from zero to at least four nominations all at once doesn’t feel right, even considering how incredibly popular the show is and how well it performed at the Emmys. As of now, I think the cast and Strong are locked – the latter being the likely frontrunner in his category – while I have both Cox and Snook at #5 and will probably debate on what to do with them until the very last days.

I slotted Hall in since it feels like a very SAG pick to me and am also predicting Jung-jae, who should make it in if the show will be strong enough to win Ensemble as I think it will.

I have no idea what to do with that final slot in Drama Ensemble. I just replaced This Is Us with Pose, yet both don’t come close to convincing me even with no real decent alternative in sight.

Over to Comedy, my only real doubt at the moment is whether Sandra still has a chance for The Chair just by virtue of being Netflix’s only push in the category or if the show flew too under the radar for that to be enough. I’m not too sold on Ted Lasso or especially Hacks getting more than one actress in though, and I’ve given up on Issa getting recognized here, so I don’t know who else to consider.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204567345

Luca wrote:

Popularity doesn’t guarantee Emmy recognition. It’s not like The Walking Dead was ever a smash at the Emmys. Or The Witcher. Or 13 Reasons Why. Or Lucifer. Some things are just… popular TV shows.

Fair point, although I’d argue that all of these shows are either mainly popular with a predominantly younger audience or feature some fantastical elements that historically don’t play well with award bodies.

Yellowstone sounds like something that is far more likely to appeal to your average voter IMO.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204557160

Might start considering Robinson getting in at SAG with how big and universally loved Maid is turning out to be.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204553484

The big difference this time is the necessary decision to eliminate any submissions requirements for this year’s awards, as well its former stipulation that exclusive screenings and talent press conferences be conducted for HFPA members before consideration. That silences the debate over whether studios and networks should be working with the HFPA in this off year — they don’t have to.

The vocal group of publicists who aren’t thrilled that their clients might be nominated for a Globe should just step back and worry about other things. This is the way it should be, always, with awards from reporters and critics. It’s not about who submitted what where; it should be about, quite simply, the critics’ picks for the best TV, film and music projects of the year.

https://variety.com/2021/tv/awards/golden-globes-hollywood-foreign-press-association-submission-1235102338/

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[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204549614

I think the show Scenes from a Marriage is going to perform most similarly to is Maniac. Both limited series starring an established couple of movie stars that premiered around the same time of the year and that failed to deliver on the original expectations and ultimately were sort of a non-event. I could see Isaac being Emma Stone in this scenario and sneaking in, but I doubt the show is going further than that. Let’s also not forget that bigger names have missed for stronger shows in the past – think Julia Roberts for Homecoming – so we know name recognition can only get you so far.

I’ll echo everyone else’s sentiments on The White Lotus, which I’m starting to think could be that weird HBO snub no one saw coming and end up being shut out completely. Not really a logical assumption since at least Coolidge would totally make sense, more of a feeling.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204549484

The Morning Show is puzzling me because everything points to a forthcoming underperformance but at the same time I’m not confident enough on most of the other Drama contenders to have it get anything less than 4 nominations.

Still, even among core fans there seems to be a real discontent with the season so far so I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of voters going out of their ways to not recognize it this time around. Crudup and Aniston should be safe no matter what though.

[Camryn Joined: Jun 13th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 27 View Predictions]

#1204549454

I used to entertain the idea of Short possibly upsetting just because he was shaping up to be the de-facto MVP of the show, but after seeing Steve Martin in that finale I’m sure vote-splitting will be inevitable.

The best chance for Only Murders is in Ensemble, but if Ted Lasso overperforms in nominations and manages to get someone like Temple in then the race is probably over on that front too. It would probably take for Goldstein to miss to make me reconsider the show’s status as frontrunner.