[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203530530

Piper Halliwell wrote:

Everyone can have their opinion. It’s only when we compare someone to another that it’s important to make it clear that they didn’t start with equal opportunities. Thus, the comparison cannot be fair either.

Thank you, Piper Halliwell, and I’m very grateful to you for speaking up on this issue in earlier threads. I didn’t have a chance to respond because the other thread was closed. The whole terminology of one person “eating” another on this show without a qualification as to why that is is really grating. I totally agree that it’s an unfair comparison because there is a vast gulf in the way the characters are written. In season 3, if one is a lead and the other has become a supporting character, while a third character has been elevated to a co-lead, then it’s not a fair comparison. Poor writing and reduced screen time costs the actors their chances at the Emmy as well.

With the Succession situation of Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox, it’s clear that both characters are very well written. It makes me wonder about the comparative lack of dual female lead shows (Cagney and Lacy, Grace and Frankie, Killing Eve) which no doubt has do with sexism, but whether or not there are other factors involved. There are a ton of male-male duo shows and some female-male duo shows. Unlike the other two shows I mentioned, there’s a race difference between the two leads. Not saying that male actors aren’t pitted against each other, but the constant pitting of KE’s two leads against each other was pretty eye opening, especially what I saw on social media for the Season 1 awards season going into the Season 2 Emmys.

Also there was a lot of chatter on Twitter today about the “Killing Eve Writers Room.” Another piece to the puzzle.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203529907

It’s always so interesting to me how people are always pitting Comer and Oh against each other, one sadly negative side effect of a show with two female leads. If one was “universally seen” as better than the other, it’s not because one is the better actor than the other, it’s because one’s character has been vastly better written and is more complex than the other character, which has been sidelined and poorly written after Season 1. Yet, I see so many comments talking about how one’s performance is better than the other, and almost no one attributing that to the undeniable script differences. We all know both are excellent actors, but you can’t act what’s not in the script.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203529894

Halle Berry remains the only woman of color to ever win the Lead Actress Oscar. Viola Davis remains the only woman of color to ever win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series. During her speech, she said “The only thing that separates women of color from anyone else is opportunity … You cannot win an Emmy for roles that are simply not there.”

It’s not enough to give lip service and small, supporting, token roles to people of color both in front of and behind the camera. BAFTA needs to investigate why 100% of its acting nominees were white this year and the Oscars need to investigate why the acting branch nominated white actors in 19 of the 20 acting categories. This goes back to hidden racial biases and the mostly white academy members relating more to people who look like them.

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203529862

In keeping with this thread, here’s a letter on Variety from Asia Kate Dillon, who is non-binary, where they argued to eliminate gender-specific acting categories from the SAG Awards.

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203523141

Edgar Pereira wrote:

I think Davis is in a different spot of her career in a different moment. Not only the AMPAS faced backlash last year for being “too white” but 2020 is also the year of the protests against racism. I would say she’s the most relevant African American actress working today in Hollywood and if the movie sells only her performance, then it will be all about her performance. She’s like a Jessica Lange case for “Blue Sky” – an established actress with a starring vehicle just for her and she’s big enough for that at this moment. Plus, she’s a 2 time Oscar winner kind of actress while Hudson isn’t (but then again I said Zellweger wasn’t a 2 times Oscar winner kind of actress and well…)

So interesting that you bring up “Blue Sky” because I was just thinking about that film and how it was a little film that filmed in 1990, was finished ready to be released in 1991, but due to Orion Pictures going bankrupt, it wasn’t released until 1994. If it had been released in 1991 as planned, I think Jessica Lange would likely have been unable to beat the “Silence of the Lambs” steamroller at the Oscars. So, oddly enough, that was oddly a stroke of good luck for Jessica and “Blue Sky,” but it also shows the incredible respect that Jessica Lange has garnered in the industry.

Right now, it seems like many people are assuming that “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” won’t be an Oscar Best Picture nominee. Viola Davis is such an extraordinary actress that honestly I would have given all three Oscars that Viola Davis was nominated for (Doubt, The Help, and Fences) to her. We know the huge issues with systemic racism in Hollywood. I know last year before Toronto’s premiere of Judy, Cynthia Erivo was getting so much buzz for Harriet. Alfre Woodard also got praise for Clemency, Lupita Nyong’o swept the critics awards, and Awkwafina won the GG for Comedy/Musical. Yet the latter 3 didn’t even get nominated.

Time and time again, the Lead Actress Oscar category has been incredibly hard to crack for actresses of color, with Halle Berry being the one and only actress of color to ever win. Even at the Emmys, in the Lead Actress Drama Series category, only one actress of color has ever won, Viola Davis, so if anyone can crack the Oscars Lead Actress category, I think it’s Viola. I agree that she has garnered an incredible amount of respect in the industry.

I don’t think that BAFTA nominating *Zero* people of color this year and the Oscars nominating only 1 out of 20 is in any way acceptable. Whether that translates into an actual Oscar for Lead Actress for Viola Davis, Jennifer Hudson, or anyone else remains to be seen.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203522200

Kenan Thompson followed by Kate McKinnon. Kenan really should win multiple acting Emmys. He did win an “Outstanding Original Music and Lyrics” Emmy in 2018.

 

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203521156

In the last 11 years since the beginning of the preferential ballot era, 7/11 Lead Actress Oscar winners have come from Best Picture nominees. The only 4 who haven’t were:

2011 Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady. I think she was 29 years overdue for her 2nd Lead Actress Oscar and 3rd Oscar overall, even if people didn’t really like the film. It also won Best Makeup.

2013 Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine. Many people consider this to be the best or one of the best Lead Actress Oscar winners of the decade, plus she’s very well respected in the industry with only one Supporting Actress Oscar from 9 years earlier.

2014 Julianne Moore – Still Alice. This was a very unusual win in that she had the only nomination for the film. However, she is a very well respected American actress who was very overdue as well.

2019 Renee Zellweger – Judy. Voters loved both Zellweger, who had only won one Supporting Actress Oscar 16 years earlier. They also loved that it was a tribute to Judy Garland, who never won an Oscar. The four Lead Actress Oscar winners before her all came from Best Picture nominees.

I think Glenn Close losing the Lead Actress Oscar to Olivia Colman for is the most famous recent example of how viewers not loving a film (she was her film’s only nominee) can hurt your ability to win when you’re up against a strong contender in a Best Picture nominee. That’s why, although not absolutely required, I think Viola Davis needs to be in a Best Picture nominee to maximize her chances of winning.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203521130

If there are all or mostly female nominees and winners, I foresee a lot of complaints and grumbling from the men claiming they’re trying to be politically correct. If there are all or mostly male nominees and winners, I can see complaints from the women about sexism. If there are quotas of 5 men and 5 women in the non-gender specific categories, to ensure equal representation, then what’s the point of not keeping the existing categories separating men and  women? It’s too much of a headache, on top of existing diversity issues in the industry, and there’s no way to make it workable.

The irony is that by enforcing the separation of the acting categories by gender, you’re actually ensuring that women will always be represented and be guaranteed two winners. Also, the acting winners are, fairly or unfairly, the most famous and the most eagerly anticipated part of the Oscars. Why do you think almost everyone who presents the awards are all actors, even in the technical categories? Do they really want to reduce the number of acting awards from four to two?

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203520038

Nicco wrote:

As well as Viola Davis is clearly the frontrunner.

I’m hopeful for Viola Davis, but unless if her movie is a Best Picture contender, it will be a difficult road ahead. Also, I’m hopeful for Glenn Close as well in Supporting Actress. I know last summer, people were speculating that Cynthia Erivo in Harriet was the frontrunner but that was before Renee Zellweger’s performance in Judy premiered at Toronto. To be fair, Erivo was nominated for the Oscar, but no one had a shot against Zellweger.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203519943

smurty11 wrote:

You don’t waste Sandra Oh like that…Do the writers not like Eve anymore? ‘Cause they really liked Villanelle this season. Why did they drop “Eve might be a psychopath too” from last season. Oh was great last season and I might’ve been the only one who felt she deserved the Emmy over Comer last season. 

You’re not the only one, and although it’s an unpopular opinion, I agree with you on Oh deserving it. She had that tearful scene “I feel wide awake” with the doctor (her best scene), and the “killer Eve” persona in the season finale, which was the episode submitted. However, I don’t care though in what order Comer and Oh wins (they both deserve it), as long as Oh wins by series end.

As you can tell from no Season 2 BAFTA nom for her, Season 1 was probably her only shot for the Emmy/BAFTA due to the deterioration in character depth in the following seasons, whereas Comer has an endless supply of good awards worthy scenes because of the nature of the character. Regrettably, due to her being sidelined and the poor script for her character, I think Oh’s awards chances this year and if she’s even on next year are pretty bad. There’s actually no point to Eve if she’s being sidelined that much.

Emmyfan wrote:

I do think that some people may not appreciate Sandra Oh’s understated performance in some episodes.

I agree, and it makes me wonder. If one is into subtle performances like Foy in The Crown or Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea, I’m not sure why one wouldn’t appreciate Sandra’s acting as her role has been very subdued the last two seasons. Even Colman in The Crown has very subtle acting and is still the favorite to win the Emmy this year.

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203517212

You’re not the first to bring this up, but I think it will never happen.

The Television Critics Association (TCA) is the only major awards group that I’m familiar with that does this: Individual Achievement in Drama and Individual Achievement in Comedy going back to the 1996-1997 years. However, look at the year 1997-1998 for Drama: there are five male nominees with the winner being a man, Andre Braugher. In recent years, there have been majority female nominees, so it would be interesting to understand why that happened. 5/6 drama nominees and 5/6 comedy nominees last year were female. The fact that it’s been almost a quarter century, and no other major awards group has followed suit means that it’s not a popular idea at all.

Given the ton of criticism over there being no female nominees in the Director category at the GG, BAFTA, DGA, and Oscars, I don’t think the Academy would risk a situation where you could have all male acting nominees or winners. You have two guaranteed female winners on Oscar night: Lead Actress and Supporting Actress. So many of the other categories have been male dominated, which reflects the lack of opportunities for women in the industry, particularly in the technical categories like Sound, Cinematography, or Visual Effects. Most of the Screenplay winners have been men. All but one Director winner have been male. Almost all the producing winners have been male.

The history of the Lead Actress and Supporting Actress categories is so storied as well, from Katharine Hepburn to Halle Berry to Hattie McDaniel to Patty Duke. It’s fun to compare contemporary winners with past winners in the same category, but as soon as it becomes combined, you can’t really do that anymore, especially if the new winners are mostly male. It would also end up in a reduced number of categories to present on Oscar night.

So my personal opinion is it will never happen because of the storied history of the Lead Actress/Supporting Actress categories and the potential to backfire. Imagine if the two acting winners were male and every other winner was male. It would be a PR disaster.

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203517182

Renee Zellweger winning a 2nd Oscar 16 years after her first Oscar and after she took a 6 year hiatus from acting was so unexpected. She’s clearly very loved in in the industry, and the character she played was so beloved, Judy Garland.

In terms of Winslet or Kidman, I’m leaning towards Winslet simply because she’s had more nominations. The last time Kidman won was 17 years ago.

Other actors with long gaps between Oscar wins:

Katharine Hepburn – 33 years between 1st and 2nd Oscars
Meryl Streep – 29 years between 2nd and 3rd Oscars
Frances McDormand – 21 years
Daniel Day-Lewis – 18 years between 1st and 2nd Oscars
Ingrid Bergman – 18 years between 2nd and 3rd Oscars
Marlon Brando – 18 years

Kidman and Winslet both have 1 Lead Actress Oscar.
My gut is saying though that it’s unlikely that either of them will win a second Oscar, just because there are so many legends who have only won one, like Helen Mirren or Audrey Hepburn. However, if they find the right Oscar baity role that is also a Best Picture contender like Three Billboards and Frances McDormand, it could be a winner.

History tells us that with the exception of Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady (2011) and Ingrid Bergman for Anastasia (1956), every single woman or man who won a second Lead Acting Oscar won it for a movie that was a Best Picture nominee or winner. The last three women to get 2 Lead Actress Oscars other than Streep were Frances McDormand for Three Billboards, which was probably runner-up for Best Picture, Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby, which won Best Picture, and Jodie Foster for The Silence of the Lambs, which swept the big 5 categories including Best Picture. Swank’s and Foster’s first Oscars were for movies that were not Best Picture nominees, but were very Oscar bait roles. I think if the movies were reversed in time, it would be less likely that they would win their second Lead Actress Oscars.

Also, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman, Maggie Smith, Gene Hackman, and Helen Hayes are the only actors to win a Supporting Acting Oscar after winning a Lead Acting Oscar. Even Al Pacino didn’t win a Supporting Actor Oscar this year after being nominated for the first time in 27 years.

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203516305

1920’s:
1927/28- Emil Jannings – The Last Command / The Way of All Flesh
1928/29- Paul Muni – The Valiant
1930’s:
1929/30- George Arliss – Disaeli
1930/31- Lionel Barrymore – A Free Soul
1931/32- Fredric March – Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde; Wallace Beery, The Champ (will keep the tie)
1932/33- Charles Laughton – The Private Life of Henry VIII
1934- Clark Gable – It Happened One Night
1935- Victor McLaglen – The Informer
1936- Paul Muni – The Story of Louis Pasteur
1937- Robert Montgomery – Night Must Fall
1938- Charles Boyer – Algiers
1939- Robert Donat – Goodbye, Mr. Chips
1940’s:
1940- Henry Fonda – The Grapes of Wrath
1941- Cary Grant – Penny Serenade
1942- Walter Pidgeon – Mrs. Miniver
1943- Paul Lukas – Watch on the Rhine
1944- Cary Grant – None But the Lonely Heart
1945- Ray Milland – The Lost Weekend
1946- James Stewart – It’s a Wonderful Life
1947- Ronald Colman – A Double Life
1948- Laurence Olivier – Hamlet
1949- Gregory Peck – Twelve O’Clock High
1950’s:
1950- Jose Ferrer – Cyrano de Bergerac
1951- Montgomery Clift – A Place in the Sun
1952- Jose Ferrer – Moulin Rouge
1953- Montgomery Clift – From Here to Eternity
1954- James Mason – A Star is Born
1955- James Dean – East of Eden
1956- Yul Brynner – The King and I
1957- Alec Guinness – The Bridge on the River Kwai
1958- David Niven – Separate Tables
1959- Laurence Harvey – Room at the Top
1960’s:
1960- Burt Lancaster – Elmer Gantry
1961- Maximilian Schell – Judgement at Nuremberg
1962- Gregory Peck – To Kill a Mockingbird
1963- Sidney Poitier – Lilies of the Field
1964- Rex Harrison – My Fair Lady
1965- Richard Burton – The Spy Who came in from the Cold
1966- Paul Scofield – A Man for All Seasons
1967- Paul Newman – Cool Hand Luke
1968- Cliff Robertson – Charly
1969- Peter O’Toole – Goodbye, Mr. Chips
1970’s:
1970- Ryan O’Neal – Love Story
1971- Gene Hackman – The French Connection
1972- Paul Winfield – Sounder
1973- Marlon Brando – Last Tango in Paris
1974- Art Carney – Harry and Tonto
1975- Jack Nicholson – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
1976- Peter Finch – Network
1977- Richard Burton – Equus
1978- Jon Voight – Coming Home
1979- Roy Scheider – All That Jazz
1980’s:
1980- Robert De Niro – Raging Bull
1981- Warren Beatty – Reds
1982- Ben Kingsley – Gandhi
1983- Robert Duvall – Tender Mercies
1984- F. Murray Abraham – Amadeus
1985- William Hurt – Kiss of the Spider Woman
1986- Paul Newman – The Color of Money
1987- Michael Douglas – Wall Street
1988- Dustin Hoffman – Rain Man
1989- Tom Cruise – Born on the Fourth of July
1990’s:
1990- Jeremy Irons – Reversal of Fortune
1991- Anthony Hopkins – The Silence of the Lambs
1992- Al Pacino – Scent of a Woman
1993- Tom Hanks – Philadelphia
1994- Morgan Freeman – The Shawshank Redemption
1995- Nicolas Cage – Leaving Las Vegas
1996- Geoffrey Rush – Shine
1997- Peter Fonda – Ulee’s Gold
1998- Nick Nolte – Affliction
1999- Kevin Spacey – American Beauty
2000’s:
2000- Ed Harris – Pollock
2001- Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind
2002- Adrien Brody – The Pianist
2003- Ben Kingsley – House of Sand and Fog
2004- Don Cheadle – Hotel Rwanda
2005- Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
2006- Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
2007- Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
2008- Sean Penn – Milk
2009- Morgan Freeman – Invictus
2010’s:
2010- Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
2011- Jean Dujardin – The Artist
2012- Denzel Washington – Flight
2013- Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
2014- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
2015- Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2016- Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2017- Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
2018- Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
2019- Joaquin Phoenix – Joker

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203513933

1920’s:
1927/28- Janet Gaynor – Seventh Heaven / Street Angel / Sunrise
1928/29- Mary Pickford – Coquette
1930’s:
1929/30- Norma Shearer – The Divorcee
1930/31- Marie Dressler – Min and Bill
1931/32- Helen Hayes – The Sin of Madelon Claudet
1932/33- Katharine Hepburn – Morning Glory
1934- Claudette Colbert – It Happened One Night
1935- Bette Davis – Dangerous
1936- Luise Rainer – The Great Ziegfeld
1937- Greta Garbo – Camille
1938- Bette Davis – Jezebel
1939- Vivien Leigh – Gone with the Wind
1940’s:
1940- Joan Fontaine – Rebecca
1941- Joan Fontaine – Suspicion
1942- Greer Garson – Mrs. Miniver
1943- Jennifer Jones – The Song of Bernadette
1944- Ingrid Bergman – Gaslight
1945- Joan Crawford – Mildred Pierce
1946- Olivia de Havilland – To Each His Own
1947- Loretta Young – The Farmer’s Daughter
1948- Barbara Stanwyck – Sorry, Wrong Number
1949- Olivia de Havilland – The Heiress
1950’s:
1950- Gloria Swanson – Sunset Boulevard
1951- Vivien Leigh – A Streetcar Named Desire
1952- Joan Crawford – Sudden Fear
1953- Audrey Hepburn – Roman Holiday
1954- Grace Kelly – The Country Girl
1955- Jennifer Jones – Love is a Many-Splendored Thing
1956- Ingrid Bergman – Anastasia
1957- Joanne Woodward – The Three Faces of Eve
1958- Deborah Kerr – Separate Tables
1959- Doris Day – Pillow Talk
1960’s:
1960- Shirley MacLaine – The Apartment
1961- Natalie Wood – Splendor in the Grass
1962- Anne Bancroft – The Miracle Worker
1963- Natalie Wood – Love with the Proper Stranger
1964- Sophia Loren – Marriage Italian Style
1965- Julie Andrews – The Sound of Music
1966- Elizabeth Taylor – Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
1967- Audrey Hepburn – Wait Until Dark
1968- Barbra Streisand – Funny Girl; Katharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter (tie at Oscars, will maintain the tie, but prefer Streisand)
1969- Maggie Smith – The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie
1970’s:
1970- Ali MacGraw – Love Story
1971- Jane Fonda – Klute
1972- Cicely Tyson – Sounder
1973- Ellen Burstyn – The Exorcist
1974- Gena Rowlands – A Woman Under the Influence
1975- Louise Fletcher – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest
1976- Faye Dunaway – Network
1977- Diane Keaton – Annie Hall
1978- Jill Clayburgh – An Unmarried Woman
1979- Jane Fonda – The China Syndrome
1980’s:
1980- Sissy Spacek – Coal Miner’s Daughter
1981- Marsha Mason – Only When I Laugh
1982- Meryl Streep – Sophie’s Choice
1983- Meryl Streep – Silkwood
1984- Judy Davis – A Passage to India
1985- Geraldine Page – The Trip to Bountiful
1986- Marlee Matlin – Children of a Lesser God
1987- Glenn Close – Fatal Attraction
1988- Jodie Foster – The Accused
1989- Michelle Pfeiffer – The Fabulous Baker Boys
1990’s:
1990- Kathy Bates – Misery
1991- Susan Sarandon – Thelma & Louise
1992- Susan Sarandon – Lorenzo’s Oil
1993- Holly Hunter – The Piano
1994- Jessica Lange – Blue Sky
1995- Sharon Stone – Casino
1996- Brenda Blethyn – Secrets & Lies
1997- Judi Dench – Mrs. Brown
1998- Fernanda Montenegro – Central Station
1999- Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry
2000’s:
2000- Ellen Burstyn – Requiem for a Dream
2001- Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
2002- Nicole Kidman – The Hours
2003- Charlize Theron – Monster
2004- Imelda Staunton – Vera Drake
2005- Judi Dench – Mrs. Henderson Presents
2006- Helen Mirren – The Queen
2007- Marion Cotillard – La vie en rose
2008- Kate Winslet – The Reader
2009- Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
2010’s:
2010- Natalie Portman – Black Swan
2011- Viola Davis – The Help
2012- Naomi Watts – The Impossible
2013- Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
2014- Julianne Moore – Still Alice
2015- Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
2016- Isabelle Huppert – Elle
2017- Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
2018- Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
2019- Cynthia Erivo – Harriet

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[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 81 View Predictions]

#1203513888

The Crown, “Aberfan” (changed because “Bubbikins” was not submitted)

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