[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205336710

There was a part of me that’s really sure that Blanchett is going to win this year, so that might propel an actress of color like Zendaya or Greta Lee to win next year, but who am I kidding? It’s not going to happen. Every time we think this is going to be the year, it doesn’t happen.

 

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205314206

Huns, for the Sylvester Stallone & Mark Rylance comparisons, we need to look at what happened:

Stallone

1. solo nominee in a non-BP nominee
2. GG, CC winner
3. Snubbed – SAG, BAFTA
4. Lost – OSCAR

Rylance

1. in a BP nominee
2. Nominated – GG, CC, SAG
3. Winner – BAFTA, Oscar

Bassett

1. GG, CC winner
2. SAG nominee (this weekend)
3. BAFTA nominee, lost to Condon
4. Oscar nominee in a non-BP nominee with 5 nominations

Condon

1. GG, CC nominee
2. SAG nominee (this weekend)
3. BAFTA winner
4. Oscar nominee in a top 2-3 BP contender

So the major difference is that Stallone was snubbed at both SAG & BAFTA, whereas Bassett was not. I think if Condon wins SAG, she’ll win the Oscar. If Bassett wins, it’ll be a nail biter because there have been several GG, CC, & SAG winners that have lost to the BAFTA winner (Glenn Close although Olivia also had GG, Chadwick Boseman).

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205310376

Victor Cruz wrote:

Banshees is going to get an acting win and it’ll be Condon. Sorry Bassett you’ll need to wait another 30 years.

When she’s 94, hun?

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205310298

Huns, has anyone mentioned how the London Film Critics so accurately foreshadowed the very lukewarm response to EEAAO that British voters had, including no win for presumed lock Ke Huy Quan? London gave it nothing but an honorary award for Michelle Yeoh, and BAFTA only gave it Editing. Something to keep in mind for future years.

X

Reply

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205309717

Huns, Austin Butler is a LOCK LOCK LOCK for the Oscar. I had been on the Colin Farrell train, not because I’m a fan of his, but because I thought he was following the Olivia Colman trajectory. Nope, it’s over. I wonder what Taron Egerton is thinking right now because he’s the biopic performance that wasn’t even nominated.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205309470

My score is tanking LOL
BAFTA said no POC allowed.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205302557

Cate winning for a film that’s racist against asians makes it even uglier

I did see some comments from Filipinos on social media who were not happy about TAR. Don’t really want to get into spoilers, but if you’ve seen the movie, you know what this is in reference to.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205288364

Anthagiox wrote:

some of you are such party poopers lol. these people are getting a chance of a lifetime winning their first grammys and/or performing for the first time and y’all are miserable. the grammys aren’t just about your faves.

For some of them, it might be the only Grammy they ever win or the only nomination they ever get. Let’s celebrate them!

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205273841

Darling, the To Leslie campaign needs to be sent a “Cease and Desist” order to stop deleting Instagram posts until after the Academy investigation is complete.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205270876

Kubrick wrote:

Right now, I suspect Todd Field is taking Screenplay. I do not buy the hype for EEAAO’s writing, which is it’s weakest element, but we’ll see how things shake out over the coming weeks. I thought the script for Birdman was a mess and wondered how it took three writers to cobble together that screenplay, and they ended up winning an Oscar. So who knows?

Huns, I feel like there’s a pathway for Todd Field to take either Original Screenplay or Director. TAR is beloved by the Academy because it got the extra Editing & Cinematography noms. Also, there are weaknesses in the other contenders. You mentioned EEAAO’s script, and also, they don’t like to give both all 3 of Picture, Director, and Screenplay to the same film. It’s pretty rare, even though Parasite & Birdman did it.

We thought Spielberg might be taking Director, but him missing the CC win and being snubbed entirely on the longlist at BAFTA are red flags. I no longer think Spielberg will win. I think it’ll be the Daniels vs. maybe Field. Not sure about McDonagh, but the praise for Banshees has been the Screenplay and Actors.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205270711

Huns, raise your hands if you heard of Puck News before their news drop about the Oscars investigating the Riseborough nomination.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205266966

Darling, now that people are mentioning Scanlan, I do find it interesting that they could have gone a number of different ways with the BAFTA Leading Actress category since there were no Oscar nominees.

1. They could have made history by giving it to Tessa Thompson who would have been the first WOC to win in the category. She didn’t even attend the ceremony, and I can’t blame her. The BAFTAs do not have the best reputation among POC, no shade.
2. They could have given it to Lady Gaga, who just narrowly missed out on an Oscar nomination, one of the biggest music stars on the planet.
3. They could have given it to Alana Haim, who starred in the only Best Film nominee in the Leading Actress category, Licorice Pizza.
4. British actress Emilia Jones in the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner
5. British veteran actress Joanna Scanlan
6. First Norwegian winner ever in a very popular non-English film, Renate Reinsve

I knew they were going to go for Joanna Scanlan. It was too obvious where if Oscar predicting doesn’t come into play, nationalism will, and I got it right.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205266662

Darling, EEAAO, if it wins Best Picture, will likely win a max of 4 Oscars unless if something is dramatically changing in terms of Oscars performances.

As Babylon is not a BP nominee, I think it will probably not win either Score (where Justin Hurwitz already lost at CC) or Production Design unless if it’s a sweeper everywhere. It will likely go to a BP nominee.

I do not believe Living will win Adapted Screenplay unless if it wins a minimum of BAFTA. I do believe that a Best Picture winner will win both Screenplay awards, as usual. I would pick Women Talking tentatively because Polley already won Critics Choice and it sneaked into BP, but it’s weak with only 2 nominations.

I would watch out for AQOTWF or TGM as they made BP, but they don’t usually award war/military films in the screenplay category. I don’t think they care about awarding famous people necessarily, they care about voting for their favorite films.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205265760

Darling, Frances Fisher was ruthless in Titanic and she is ruthless in real life. Truly, life imitates art.

[m844 Joined: Jan 4th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 156 View Predictions]

#1205264776

Honestly, I don’t have a problem with Riseborough’s nomination with the performance, but I would have liked to have seen Deadwyler in there because who knows if she’ll ever get a lead role of that caliber anytime soon as a woman of color.

I think this will have no effect on actual voting. I still think Cate is going to win. The voters don’t care about any controversy.

The way white women back each other up in solidarity and with them already being in the majority, whew.