[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204887486

Updated predictions:

 

BEST PICTURE

• Avatar 2
• Babylon
• Empire of Light
• Elvis
• The Fabelmans
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Rustin
• She Said
• The Woman King
• Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR

• Damien Chazelle, Babylon
• Maria Schrader, She Said
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
• George C. Wolfe, Rustin

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

• Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody
• Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
• Viola Davis, The Woman King
• Carey Mulligan, She Said
• Margot Robbie, Babylon

BEST LEADING ACTOR

• Austin Butler, Elvis
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Colman Domingo, Rustin
• Hugh Jackman, The Son
• Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
• Laura Dern, The Son
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Audra McDonald, Rustin
• Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Brad Pitt, Babylon
• Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
• Glynn Turman, Rustin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Damien Chazelle, Babylon
• Dustin Lance Black, Rustin
• Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
• Cooper Raiff, Cha Cha Real Smooth
• Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said
• Sarah Polley, Women Talking
• Eric Roth, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Krysty Wilson-Cairns, The Good Nurse
• Florian Zeller & Christopher Hampton, The Son

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Russell Carpenter, Avatar 2
• Polly Morgan, The Woman King
• Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Linus Sandgren, Babylon
• John Seale, Three Thousand Years of Longing

BEST EDITING

• David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar 2
• Sarah Broshar, The Fabelmans
• Tom Cross, Babylon
• Andrew Mondshein, Rustin
• Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole, Avatar 2
• Jack Fisk & Adam Willis, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Roger Ford & Lisa Thompson, Three Thousand Years of Longing
• Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Beverly Dunn, Elvis
• Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino, Babylon

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Catherine Martin, Elvis
• Arianne Phillips, Don’t Worry Darling
• Gersha Phillips, The Woman King
• Holly Waddington, Poor Things
• Mary Zophres, Babylon

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Babylon
• The Batman
• Elvis
• Poor Things
• The Woman King

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Terence Blanchard & Lebo M., The Woman King
• Michael Giacchino, The Batman
• Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
• Clint Mansell, The Good Nurse
• Thomas Newman, Empire of Light

BEST SOUND

• Avatar 2
• The Batman
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Thirteen Lives
• The Woman King

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Avatar 2
• The Batman
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
• Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
• Three Thousand Years of Longing

 

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204804101

Predictions as of right now:

 

BEST PICTURE

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. She Said
5. Empire of Light
6. Rustin
7. The Woman King
8. Women Talking
9. Bardo
10. Canterbury Glass

Next in line: The Good Nurse, Thirteen Lives, TÁR, The Son, Don’t Worry Darling

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Maria Schrader, She Said
5. George C. Wolfe, Rustin

Next in line: Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo), Sam Mendes (Empire of Light), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis, The Woman King
2. Margot Robbie, Babylon
3. Naomie Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
5. Ana de Armas, Blonde

Next in line: Regina King (Shirley), Cate Blanchett (TÁR), Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling), Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

BEST ACTOR

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son
2. Colman Domingo, Rustin
3. Adam Driver, White Noise
4. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Next in line: Michael Fassbender (The Killer), Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon), Will Smith (Emancipation), Michael Fassbender (Next Goal Wins), Christian Bale (Canterbury Glass)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Laura Dern, The Son
4. Audra McDonald, Rustin
5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

Next in line: Jean Smart (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (Canterbury Glass), Patricia Clarkson (She Said), Vanessa Kirby (The Son), Thuso Mbedu (The Woman King)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Brad Pitt, Babylon
3. Ashton Sanders, I Wanna Dance With Somebody
4. Glynn Turman, Rustin
5. Colin Firth, Empire of Light

Next in line: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Ben Whishaw (Women Talking), Jeremy Strong (Armageddon Time), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Zen McGrath (The Son)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
3. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
4. Dustin Lance Black, Rustin
5. Alejandro González Iñárritu & Nicolás Giacobone, Bardo

Next in line: Todd Field (TÁR), John Ridley (Shirley), James Gray (Armageddon Time), Anthony McCarten (I Wanna Dance With Somebody), William Nicholson (Thirteen Lives)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Eric Roth, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said
3. Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller, The Son
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Noah Baumbach, White Noise

Next in line: Krysty Wilson-Cairns (The Good Nurse), Taika Waititi & Iain Morris (Next Goal Wins), Tony McNamara (Poor Things), Ron Nyswaner (My Policeman), Samuel D. Hunter (The Whale)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Polly Morgan, The Woman King
3. Linus Sandgren, Babylon
4. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
5. Emmanuel Lubezki, Canterbury Glass

Next in line: Darius Khondji (Bardo), Florian Hoffmeister (TÁR), Greig Fraser (The Batman), Janusz Kaminski (The Fabelmans), John Seale (Three Thousand Years of Longing)

BEST EDITING

1. Tom Cross, Babylon
2. Sarah Broshar, The Fabelmans
3. Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. TBA, She Said
5. Andrew Mondshein, Rustin

Next in line: Terylin A. Shropshire (The Woman King), Adam Nielsen (The Good Nurse), Jay Cassidy (Canterbury Glass), James Wilcox (Thirteen Lives), John Axelrad (Armageddon Time)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino, Babylon
2. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King
3. Roger Ford & Lisa Thompson, Three Thousand Years of Longing
4. Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia & Erin Fite, Canterbury Glass
5. James Price, Poor Things

Next in line: Killers of the Flower Moon, Elvis, Don’t Worry Darling, The Northman, Avatar II 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mary Zophres, Babylon
2. Arianne Phillips, Don’t Worry Darling
3. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King
4. Ngila Dickson, Peter Pan & Wendy
5. Albert Wolsky, Canterbury Glass

Next in line: Killers of the Flower Moon, See How They Run, Poor Things, Blonde, Wicked

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

1. Poor Things
2. The Batman
3. The Woman King
4. Babylon
5. Golda

Next in line: Don’t Worry Darling, Francis and the Godfather, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Three Thousand Years of Longing, Wicked

BEST SCORE

1. Michael Giacchino, The Batman
2. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon
3. Hildur Gudnadóttir, TÁR
4. John Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

Next in line: Thomas Newman (Empire of Light), Lobo M. (The Woman King), Biosphere (The Good Nurse), Branford Marsalis (Rustin), John Powell (Don’t Worry Darling)

BEST SOUND

1. The Woman King
2. The Batman
3. Avatar II
4. Thirteen Lives
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Next in line: Moonfall, The Northman, Canterbury Glass, Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar II
2. The Batman
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. Three Thousand Years of Longing

Next in line: Moonfall, Jurassic Word: Dominion, The Northman, Thor: Love and Thunder, The Flash

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204505616

Elsa Korr wrote:

Daniel Radcliffe is probably only cameo since he plays himself in the movie

Considering John Leguizamo is credited as “Movie star” in the Deadline article, I think he has taken over Radcliffe’s role.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204482067

vertibort6 wrote:

For those who have read the script, what is Samara Weaving character about? Is she supposed to be a competitor for Robbie´s character? Does she has chances as supporting or is a very small role?

No clue, tbh. There’s a number of females in very small roles, and I can see her being one of those. When it comes to larger female roles, I’d say we only have Emma Stone, Jean Smart, Li Jun Li and a fourth one, who I’d guess will be played by either Olivia Wilde or Katherine Waterston. I could see Weaving as one of Pitt’s wives, and in that case it’s a very small role.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204480956

Stank83 wrote:

Denzel Washington is absolutely miscast as Lord Macbeth. Black people who were Lords in Scotland didn’t exist. And plus, a 66 year old Afro-American guy as the 30-40 year old white Scottish Lord Macbeth??? Come on!!!

…

Well, OBVIOUSLY the character isn’t 30-40 in this adaptation.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204477221

FreemanGriffin wrote:

My uneasiness with it is that DW and FM are both in their sixties and these characters they are playing are most definitely much much younger – 30’s and at most early 40’s.

 

It’s actually a conscious move to let the characters be older in the adaptation. I think it was Coen who said in an interview that their age and the fact that they’re childless to some extent will be the motivation and driving force of their actions in the film.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204475811

crabbie wrote:

not everything is about the Oscars

 

Thank you!

This needs to be said more often around here.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204474967

Don’t know if its been talked about already, but the trailer for Licorice Pizza has leaked. Looks like Hoffman and Haim are definitely the leads of the film, with Cooper (who is actually playing Jon Peters) and Penn in supporting roles.

It may be recorded from a screen, but just seeing the trailer makes this film my most anticipated of the year.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204460831

Yeah, just saw on IMDB that it is slated for 2022. Don’t really know how the deadline for international features works, but I get a feeling he might set sight on the 2023 Oscars.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204460773

SN wrote:

Any other films that are obviously going to be chosen by their respective countries?

 

Being swedish, I can make a guess about Sweden’s potential submission.

The two most likely films are The Triangle of Sadness if it is done in time. Directed by Ruben Östlund, who was previously nominated in international picture for his film The Square. The film centers around a group of models being stranded on an island in the middle of the ocean. Starring Woody Harrelson amongst others. Might be a little too weird, but knowing Östlund, he’ll do anything for that Oscar.

The other one is a remake of The Emigrants, which was nominated in 1972 for Best picture, director, screenplay, actress and international film.

 

If for some reason neither of these two becomes our submission, the next in line I’d guess is something like Pleasure. Directed by Ninja Thyberg, the film centers on a young woman in the L.A. adult film industry. It’s been making its way around some festivals and have been received fairly well. Knowing my home country, this one might very well be the one being submitted.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204445090

It’s incredibly early, but as of right now this is my predictions regarding next year’s Oscars:

Best Picture

• Babylon (Damien Chazelle)
• Empire of Light (Sam Mendes)
• The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg)
• Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)
• Maestro (Bradley Cooper)
• She Said (Maria Schrader)
• The Son (Florian Zeller)
• Three Thousand Years of Longing (George Miller)
• White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
• Women Talking (Sarah Polley)

Best Director

• Damien Chazelle, Babylon
• Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
• Maria Schrader, She Said
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204445070

wolfali wrote:

I disagree. Isn’t it Searchlight’s only “big” film coming out in 2022?

If Sam Mendes’ Empire of Light is finished in time, I think it will be Searchlight’s main push. Isn’t Perfect and Poor Things Searchlight, too?

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204398022

I don’t think you can have Leo’s character as the main without Lily Gladstone’s character. In the book, Ernest (Leo) is like maybe the fourth or fifth biggest character while Mollie (Gladstone) is a big presence throughout the story. So I believe, if Leo goes lead the Gladstone will do the same.

That being said, having the story surround Mollie and Ernest to me sounds like a much more interesting film than it being the Jesse Plemons cop show.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204385435

LA26 wrote:

Thanks! That’s interesting. Can you confirm if Robbie is playing a rising star during that era, and what makes Pitt’s character special?

Yes she is, and she is definitely a leading role in the film. I’d say the same goes for Diego Calva and Brad Pitt, but one of them could go supporting too. In my opinion, Pitt’s character is the best part of the script. He’s playing the biggest actor of the era, a funny and charming character, but there’s darkness there, too.

I don’t wanna spoil anything, but you could say the film follows a bunch of different storylines based around a group of characters, but as it takes place in Hollywood they often run into each other at parties and on set. Me personally wasn’t a big fan of the storyline centering mostly around Robbie and Calva (it goes off the rails towards the second half of the script – a turn that I’d call outright bad, but I didn’t read the most recent draft so hopefully they’ve made some changes).

Other than that, I really liked the script. On the page, Pitt’s character is great, and the same goes for Jovan Adepo’s character and especially Li Jun Li, who is portraying Anna May Wong. I was a little hesistant towards Jean Smart’s role at first, but she has a scene with Pitt later on in the script that definitely could bring her a supporting nom.

All in all, I really enjoyed the script. It’s funny and crazy to the point I’m somewhat doubtful of its award chances.

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[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

#1204385276

In the draft I’ve read, they share mostly quick party scenes if I remember correctly. You could say that their two characters each have their own storyline, with Diego Calva’s character connecting them.

Although, I think it is worth to mention, Pitt’s character have the chance to be an amazing role for him. Definitely the most interesting character in the script.

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