[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204294296

Kaguya-hime wrote:

Why would that make Blanchett the lead? He’s still adapting a book where Blanchett only is in the last half or so from what I’ve heard, and even then I don’t think she’s in every scene of it.

This. I think people puts Blanchett in lead because they want to give Collette (the smallest of the three female roles) a chance. But I haven’t seen any evidence of Blanchett’s role being “beefed up”. This is Cooper’s film, and if any of the women would go lead (which I highly doubt) it would make more sense for it to be Mara.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204290852

YES!!

 

So glad to see things happening with The Menu. I read the script a year or two ago when Payne was still slated to direct, and I loved it. Don’t know about it’s chances though, it’s absolutely crazy, balls to the wall. If this gets in for anything, I’d say it’s Ralph Fiennes for best actor. It’s a great part, but nothing close to Oscar-esque

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204240305

New, updated predictions:

 

BEST PICTURE

• Don’t Look Up (Netflix)
• Dune (Warner Bros. Pictures)
• The French Dispatch (Searchlight Pictures)
• House of Gucci (Universal Pictures)
• Last Night in Soho (Focus Features)
• Nightmare Alley (Searchlight Pictures)
• The Northman (Focus Features)
• The Power of the Dog (Netflix)          (WINNER)
• Soggy Bottom (MGM)
• West Side Story (20th Century Studios)

BEST DIRECTOR

• Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch          (WINNER)
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Robert Eggers, The Northman
• Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

• Ana de Armas, Blonde          (WINNER)
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Jennifer Hudson, Respect
• Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Kristen Stewart, Spencer

BEST LEADING ACTOR

• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
• Adam Driver, House of Gucci
• Will Smith, King Richard
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth          (WINNER)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
• Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog          (WINNER)
• Ruth Negga, Passing
• Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
• Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom          (WINNER)
• Willem Dafoe, The Card Counter
• Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
• Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley
• Al Pacino, House of Gucci

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom          (WINNER)
• Steven Knight, Spencer
• Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
• Edgar Wright & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Last Night in Soho

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog          (WINNER)
• Rebecca Hall, Passing
• Sian Heder, CODA
• Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Jarin Blaschke, The Northman
• Greig Fraser, Dune
• Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley          (WINNER)
• Claire Mathon, Spencer
• Robert D. Yeoman, The French Dispatch

BEST EDITING

• Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up
• Michael Kahn & Sarah Broshar, West Side Story
• Paul Machliss, Last Night in Soho
• Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Weisblum, The French Dispatch          (WINNER)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Craig Lathrop & Niamh Coulter, The Northman
• Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch          (WINNER)
• Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story
• Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts & Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Mark Bridges, Soggy Bottom
• Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch
• Jacqueline Durran, Spencer
• Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley          (WINNER)
• Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Dune
• The French Dispatch
• House of Gucci          (WINNER)
• Nightmare Alley
• The Northman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
• Jonny Greenwood, Spencer
• Jonny Greenwood, Soggy Bottom
• Steven Price, Last Night in Soho          (WINNER)
• Hans Zimmer, Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

• “So May We Start”, Annette
• “TBD”, Encanto
• “Home All Summer”, In the Heights
• “TBD”, Luca
• “No Time to Die”, No Time to Die          (WINNER)

BEST SOUND

• Dune          (WINNER)
• Eternals
• The Northman
• No Time to Die
• West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Dune          (WINNER)
• Eternals
• Godzilla vs Kong
• The Matrix 4
• No Time to Die

BEST FOREIGN FILM

• A Hero (Asghar Farhadi, Iran)
• Caravaggio’s Shadow (Michele Placido, Italy)
• Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook, South Korea)
• Limbo (Alejandro González Iñárritu, Mexico)          (WINNER)
• Petite Maman (Céline Sciamma, France)

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204149298

diego wrote:

The film actually premiered back in 2018 and has a 57% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Yeah, I saw now that it’s going to be released in March. So it’s a no go.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204149229

I’m curious about The Harder They Fall. It has an interesting concept and an amazing cast, but the director has me worried. Maybe a couple of acting nomination isn’t out of the question but I guess we’ll have to wait and see what kind of movie this is.

By the way, do anyone know anything about the upcoming Netflix film Monster? I can’t find anything about it except that Kelvin Harrison Jr. is starring. He’s a great actor who I believe will be nominated in the near future.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204149029

Regarding what Warner Bros. films will be the studio’s main push, I don’t think The Many Saints of Newark will come close to the Oscars (even though I can’t wait for the actual movie). Right now I’m betting on Dune as the pain push, and to some extent Don’t Worry Darling.

Having read the Van Dyke script, I can say it’s not very good. However, Katie Silberman is on board and apparently rewriting big chunks of it. So I have hope. If good, I think it can make it in there as this years Get Out, the psychological thriller with some meat to it. There’s also a feminist theme in the script that was handled quite badly, but maybe Silberman can fix that too.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204140281

Updated predictions:

 

BEST PICTURE

• The Power of the Dog
• Amsterdam
• Blonde
• Don’t Look Up
• Dune
• The French Dispatch
• House of Gucci
• Last Night in Soho
• Nightmare Alley
• Soggy Bottom

BEST DIRECTOR

• Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune

BEST LEADING ACTOR

• Adam Driver, House of Gucci
• Christian Bale, Amsterdam
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

BEST LEADING ACTRESS

• Ana de Armas, Blonde
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
• Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
• Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
• Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
• Richard Jenkins, Nightmare Alley
• Al Pacino, House of Gucci
• John David Washington, Amsterdam

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
• Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Ruth Negga, Passing
• Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
• Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
• Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
• Katie Silberman, Carey Van Dyke & Shane Van Dyke, Don’t Worry Darling
• Edgar Wright & Krysty Wilson-Cairns, Last Night in Soho

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci
• Andrew Dominik, Blonde
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
• Guillermo del Toro & Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley
• Greig Fraser, Dune
• Darius Khondji, Limbo
• Claire Mathon, Spencer
• Robert D. Yeoman, The French Dispatch

BEST EDITING

• Andrew Weisblum, The French Dispatch
• Jay Cassidy, Amsterdam
• Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up
• Paul Machliss, Last Night in Soho
• Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

• Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch
• Stefan Dechant & Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth
• Eve Stewart, Clint Wallace & Michael Standish, Eternals
• Adam Stockhausen & Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story
• Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts & Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

• Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
• Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch
• Jennifer Johnson, Blonde
• Arianne Phillips, Don’t Worry Darling
• Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR

• Dune
• Blonde
• Cruella
• Don’t Worry Darling
• House of Gucci

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

• Steven Price, Last Night in Soho
• Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
• Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
• Hildur Guðnadóttir, Amsterdam
• Hans Zimmer, Dune

BEST SOUND

• Dune
• Annette
• Eternals
• No Time to Die
• West Side Story

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

• Dune
• BIOS
• Eternals
• Matrix IV
• No Time to Die

 

Some categories are already incredibly hard. Especially Best Actress; it was tough not to include Jennifer Lawrence, Kristen Stewart, Margot Robbie and Jennifer Hudson, but as of now I believe the others have a stronger chance. I even had to fraud McDormand into supporting to make it work.

 

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204087762

Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu is shooting his next film, Limbo, which is said to be massive and will be released this year. What do you think of its chances?

 

https://deadline.com/2021/03/alejandro-gonzalez-inarritu-limbo-first-movie-since-the-revenant-1234707758/

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204067811

wolfali wrote:

I am not buying that a lot of these films will make it on time. Unless they’re streaming film is don’t see any of the big releases happening until August the earliest and there aren’t enough slots for all of these films.

 

Yes, this! Some of the films we’re predicting will be postponed, but I can’t seem to figure out which ones are at risk. Which ones do you guys think?

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204065003

musiccisum wrote:

do you guys think florence pugh will be a serious conteder for a best actress nom for don’t worry darling?

 

Having read the script, I’d say she might very well be. However, as of right now I’d say best actress is the most competitive category right now. Dunst, Lawrence, Gaga, Robbie, McDormand, and maybe even de Armas and Stewart. It’s a tough year.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204061451

wolfali wrote:

At the moment I’m thinking. Picture: <i>The Power of the Dog </i>vs The French Dispatch Director: Jane Campion vs Wes Anderson Actor: Adam Driver vs Denzel Washington Actress: Kirsten Dunst vs Margot Robbie S. Actor: Willem Dafoe vs ? S. Actress: Jodie Comer vs Diana Rigg Original Screenplay: The French Dispatch vs Last Night in SoHoo Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog vs The Tragedy of Macbeth

I’m very doubtful regarding Dafoe. The character’s role in the book is very very small and I think this will be more of a cameo than a supporting role. Going by the book, the most likely contender is Richard Jenkins, or maybe David Strathairn (even if that role is quite small, too).

All in all, if the film is going to get acting nominations, I think it can’t be anyone other than Cooper, Mara, Blanchett and Jenkins.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204060425

What film do you guys believe to be the most likely best picture winner?

I know it’s early, but for the life of me I can’t think of a frontrunner at this point and I go back and forth on a lot of them.

Right now I have these as my predicted nominees:

• Amsterdam (or Canterbury Glass or whatever it is called atm)
• Don’t Look Up
• Dune
• The French Dispatch
• Gucci
• Last Night in Soho
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• Soggy Bottom
• The Tragedy of Macbeth

I could see Spencer making it in there, too. But none of these screams winner for me. I would love to see a PTA film win, but Soggy Bottom doesn’t seem like the film he’ll be rewarded for. I could actually see Villeneuve win best director in a split, but Dune as a best picture winner? Nah.

As of right now I’m leaning a little more towards The French Dispatch or Nightmare Alley. Maybe The Power of the Dog too but honestly I have no clue.

So what is your take on it?

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204038085

diego wrote:

We haven’t discussed Barry Levinson’s making of The Godfather yet. At first I thought the film was going to get lost in development hell but with Moss’ announcement as Eleanor Coppola it looks like it might be filming soon.

I read the screenplay for this one and it’s bad. I mean, painfully bad. Should be noted it was the Blacklist script and apparently Levinson’s made some touches on it, but I don’t know… There’s a mafia subplot that’s so silly, and George Lucas is a supporting character that’s incredibly cringe.

One thing, though: Jake Gyllenhaal as Robert Evans. He’s the only one in the script I actually enjoyed and Gyllenhaal seems perfect in the role. Maybe look out for him in the supporting categories.

 

wolfali wrote:

One film we are yet to talk about is Louis Wain. It’s an Amazon/Film4 costumed co-production starring Benedict Cumberbatch and Claire Foy. It could be one of Amazon’s priorities next year and potentially next year’s big British acting play à la The Two Popes. Cumberbatch has a juicy role. I assume Foy is borderline lead. I can already smell the HFPA moving Amsterdam to drama so they can award both it and Don’t Look Up. Poor Last Night in SoHo and The Power of the Dog.

Don’t wanna be a downer but I have zero interest in Louis Wain. I’m pretty tired of all these Benedict Cumberbatch biopics; Louis Wain, Ironbark, The Imitation Game… I may be wrong and this one will surprise me, but as of now his role in The Power of the Dog looks so much more promising, and a more interesting pick of his. So as of now, I’m hoping for a nomination for TPotD instead.

 

 

Btw, Lily Gladstone’s been cast in Killers of the Flower Moon! I can’t say I know any of her work and the film is more likely a 2023 contender, but considering her character Mollie’s part in the book, I hope we can expect great things for her.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204019897

LaBinoche wrote:

Blanchett will be lead in Nightmare Alley. And she’s going supporting for Don’t Look Up. She’s aiming for a double nomination. Streep will also be going for supporting. Taylor-Joy and McKenzie are essentially co leads, but will be interesting how they campaign. They both also have supporting roles in The Northman and The Power of the Dog, respectively. Maybe aim for a double nomination? I hope Dunst gets her first nomination, in Lead Actress, for The Power of the Dog.

 

How do you know this? In the book, Blanchett’s character is definitely not a lead character. I’d say there’s only one lead in the original story and that’s Cooper’s character, but if there was a second lead it would be Mara and not Blanchett.

[mansos Joined: Feb 16th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 47 View Predictions]

#1204005658

Sir Pierce wrote:

Out of curiosity, if you have read a version of the script, would you say it is likely it will be a Picture contender and, also, where would you expect it to get nominations?

 

I’ve read a version of this script, too. Not the shooting script but an earlier version. I definitely think it will get a BP nomination and even if it wasn’t the best thing I’ve read, McKay and company have probably bettered it over the different versions.

The key players are obviously DiCaprio and Lawrence, with an interesting role for Streep (think a female Trump with a tad more intelligence). These are the big players and I bet all of them are nominated. Other than that we have Jonah Hill and Rob Morgan as funny supporting characters. Other than those (and to some extent Blanchett and Evans) most characters won’t show up much.

I could see nominations in Picture, Director, Lead Actress, Lead Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay and Editing. All in all, an interesting project. I think the Wag the Dog comparisons are correct.