Manuelcolon
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November 17, 2019 at 8:30 am #1203183144
Taylor is NOT getting an AOTY nomination for Lover. Not because the album itself failed to make a real impact (which is true), but because she is already a two-time winner. If Lover is nominated in AOTY then Taylor has a really chance of winning again.
The committee does not want Taylor to join the ranks of Stevie Wonder and Frank Sinatra as three-time AOTY winners, while they are still trying to make up for veterans (like Bruce Springsteen) and current icons (like Beyoncé & Kendrick Lamar) not even having one.
I do agree with the fact that she’s a two times winner not deserving of a third one, but i don’t really think the Grammys are doing anything to make up for any of those acts, as deserving as they have been, sadly.
ReplyNovember 17, 2019 at 8:25 am #1203183136I am absolutely convinced that Dame Maggie Smith will be nominated for Downton Abbey and am surprised that she isn’t in the top five in the odds on here. She gives a fantastic performance and she is beloved – there are many fans of the show and I believe particularly older members of the academy will lead to her getting nominated for it (and she will deserve it, especially for her final scene with Michelle Dockery).
I have not seen the movie, but i feel as sure as you do about her nomination. With a category so thin yet unpredictable i KNOW Maggie Smith will take a spot, the movie got good reviews, it did pretty well at box office, her performance was very praised, she’s so in at BAFTA and possibly SAG, everything just screams to me that it is like a The Help kind of film (simple yet crowd pleasing), but not THAT supported.
ReplyNovember 17, 2019 at 8:13 am #1203183127Ford v Ferrari is for sure a contender, but I don’t think it can win. The main reason why is that it’s too traditional. The Oscar’s just don’t give big awards to films like these anymore. Even if a film does play it safe, they have to at least give off the impression that they’re doing something bold, like Green Book did, to win. I actually think FvF is riskier in the execution of its premise than Jojo Rabbit is, but in the end Jojo Rabbit does have the bolder premise, and that will make the academy more likely to vote for it.
Another problem is that FvF can’t win anything else above the line. It’s hopelessly outmatched in every category. Jojo Rabbit will win Adapted Screenplay, Parasite will win Director, OUATIH will win Original Screenplay, Marrige Story, Irishman, and Joker will all win acting awards. Those films are bigger contenders for that reason.
Lastly, it doesn’t seem to have the same passion behind it that Jojo or Parasite or the Netflix films do. All of those films have pretty loud and arduous fans. Ford v Ferrari is well liked, but I don’t hear anyone call it a masterpiece or give it perfect scores left and right. Even Joker had more perfect reviews than FvF does.
I think FvF is a great film, but it’s just not Best Picture winning material. And that’s my very long, in depth analysis on it. I guess I felt I should match your length. It’s a lock for a non though, and so is Bale. You heard it here first.
I do agree with everything that you said, specially with the fact that it is too traditional and maybe that will be the reason why The Academy backs down on awarding it, the reason why i feel it is over Jojo is what you pointed out, the divisive factor, i do feel like that is what will keep Jojo from winning, besides the huge general audiences support.
And one of the reasons why i think its chances are so big is because also of what you said, that it seems to be great but not a masterpiece, after Green Book my mind just stood with the fact that a movie does not need to be 10/10 to win.
I do hope something like Parasite wins, because i have seen it and i think the same as everyone else, it’s a 10/10 film amazingly constructed and with lot of thought and creativity.
And thank you for equaling the length of my post haha. I am scared to put Bale because even tho i know he’s getting in i don’t like to take out my dark horses.
ReplyNovember 16, 2019 at 5:25 pm #1203182491My thoughts are that your hunches are as valid as anybody else’s. Some feel divisive doesn’t matter, especially if it supports their favorites, and others that it does. Some feel box office is critical and others not so much.
My own thoughts are that the team of Mangold/Damon/Bale, as much as I respect their work, is going to have a humongous hill to climb to defeat a director like Scorsese, who carries the gravitas felt necessary for the win.
I haven’t seen it yet and have decided to put it off for as long as possible, so my perspective is coming from not knowing what’s going on in the film.Yes, exactly. Maybe Scorcese can still win Director, but Mangold seems like a safe choice for a nomination (and i just remembered that he “won” at the Hollywood Film Awards).
I won’t see the contenders maybe until january, but considering what people discuss here and what i read in other pages, i’m trying to put together a nice list.
ReplyNovember 16, 2019 at 5:00 pm #1203182484Okay i decided to update my predictions a little bit and get my thoughts together on the categories, and i cannot avoid to think that Ford Vs Ferrari is the movie that can take Best Picture from the other contenders.
It is having strong box office, but it’s not just that what makes me believe it is the top choice, the reason why it is earning the coins is because of mass support, the public loves it and even tho critics don’t think it’s the best movie of the year, they are showing support and to me that is a big indicator of a possibility where it translates on awards this season. Voters will eat it up.
Jojo Rabbit is thought to be the crowd pleaser, but this overcomes it, great critical reception (not 10/10), great box office, general public loves it (A+ on Cinemascore) and will 100% be nominated for Editing and Sound, which to me it seems like it can totally get into Director, Screenplay and maybe Actor (Bale).
What do you guys think? It is a very accessible and safe choice where it checks all the right boxes.
ReplyNovember 8, 2019 at 11:21 am #1203171318I am as well, when BTD first came out critics were destroying it, maybe they came to their senses 7 years later?
It was also incredibly influential looking back now, Lana walked so that Lorde and Billie could run.As the other user said i think they include it because of it’s impact, but i must say that i don’t think BTD is the right choice, i mean it is really not very well produced.
I would put Ultraviolence.
ReplyNovember 8, 2019 at 5:15 am #1203170768I am quite surprised at Born To Die being the Lana album named the most among Decade Best, at least NFR! is also being included.
And it is INSULTING how barely any list includes Vulnicura, how is that album not being praised to the heavens?
ReplyNovember 8, 2019 at 4:32 am #1203170742It just had its first screening and to sum up the reactions:
– Most people are calling it just as good as, if not better than, the first movie. “The rare sequel that is better than its predecessor.”
– More mature, much darker
– The songs are catchier – which shocks me.
The response is truly amazing
I really hope i end up liking this one much more, because the first has such a basic and thin story.
Based on the trailers i do feel the tone and story will make me more pleased.
ReplyNovember 2, 2019 at 6:14 am #1203162738This seems like a great role for Gaga to take! And exactly what she needs, because i remember that after the Oscars there was a thread of what should Gaga do next and most people supported more musicals or roles already done by Barbra, but that’s not at all what she should do.
If she wants to improve or show she’s good (or fail at it) she needs serious roles, new characters, original scripts. Ridley can be very hit or miss, but even if this ends up being bad and Gaga sucks i’ll be happy with the risk, and it’s cool to see people here excited.
ReplyOctober 29, 2019 at 6:41 pm #1203158258Actors can’t get two nominations on the same category, it’s a rule.
I feel pretty sure about her nomination for Bombshell, it helps a lot the she has OUATIH and can push her to a win.
ReplyOctober 29, 2019 at 3:00 pm #1203157981if there was a pop commitee, the submissions would be stronger and the nominees would be better every year.
last year’s lineup was a joke…Even if Joanne was a REALLY weird nomination and win, at least it had some really pretty vocals and i consider it a good win, but yeah, all of the nominees were like ???? no one really screamed winner.
This year i really love Lizzo, but Truth Hurts is purely slow rap, there is nothing vocally impressive ir relevant in it. 7 Rings is the same case, with it also just not being a good song, and Bad Guy has a cool beat, and that’s it
October 29, 2019 at 11:56 am #1203157765Pop Solo
7 Rings
Bad Guy
Someone You Loved
Truth Hurts
If I Can’t Have YouI can’t believe this actually could be the line up in a PERFORMANCE category.
They could change the title to “Best Solo Hit” and it would be okay.
October 27, 2019 at 4:47 pm #1203155151What’s up with the negativity towards Erivo? I know her movie ended up with mixed reviews and her performance was not as praised as expected, but now i have seen so many negative comments about herself and her “desperation”.
Everyone was predicting her to win and now it seems like she’s hated in here, who cares if she wants to win an Oscar, doesn’t most of the contenders want one too? Just chill.
October 24, 2019 at 7:29 am #1203150475The Hustlers nomination came out of nowhere, cool.
Scarlett missing reminds me of Melissa last year.
ReplyOctober 10, 2019 at 6:12 pm #1203131383But Colman was a locked win in Comedy so she wasn’t going to win both and Collette was not the critics favourite. She was nominated in the regional critics circles but did not win as much as Glenn
But Glenn won like only one critic award this season, it was a very talked about topic, even Gaga won more than her.
