[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204240552

This Variety article says Michiel Huisman is being campaigned in Lead: https://t.co/v8kJ15BDp2

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204233544

I don’t like to be too reactive off one trailer, but yeah…. Jean Smart could win for this.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204233305

JV wrote:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DiscussingFilm/status/1387391290258694144

Trailer for Luca

Assuming Disney will exhibit it in a random small theater just to make it eligible, I think it has a good shot at a Best Picture nomination, with 10 slots.

If “Soul” couldn’t make the Best Picture lineup in a much less competitive year, I don’t see it happening for “Luca.” However, there doesn’t seem to be much on the release calendar for 2021 for animated films and most of the remaining animated films are sequels, so that could fare well for “Luca” and the already-released “Raya and the Last Dragon,” though I’m sure we will get more news as the year progresses (Netflix just picked up an animated movie musical “Vivo” starring Lin-Manuel Miranda from Sony).

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204232433

JV wrote:

LOL Weeks ago I slotted Pete Davidson in when he was 100/1 because he has a lot of buzz right now (Suicide Squad, even though he will be only in a few minutes in it and he will play Joey Ramone in a Netflix biopic) and because the field is weak, and I dropped soon because I thought the fact that no one was predicting him wasn’t a good sign.

And now I realize that he’s not 100/1 anymore and people are randomly predicting him.
I don’t watch SNL. Does he has a chance of being nominated ?

No but the field is empty and he is a big name on a show that will likely see more cast members getting nominated with the wide-open field. I actually think he was sorta missing in the beginning of the season if I’m remembering correctly, but he’s arguably the show’s biggest star.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204229324

Three of these were my personal picks for the year:
1) Daniel Kaluuya
2) Youn Yuh-Jung
3) Frances McDormand
4) Anthony Hopkins

Reply

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204214178

Might fuck around and slot Rob McElhenney in my predictions. Comedy Actor is barren, “Mythic Quest” has gotten a bit of catch-up buzz since the first season premiered last winter and season two is premiering at the perfect time to be top of mind. I also think there’s a certain respect or at least recognition of “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” and if voters are absolutely watching “Ted Lasso,” there is perhaps some encouragement to check out Apple TV+’s other comedy programming.

Based on the intel about the new season of “Master of None,” I’m starting to question Aziz Ansari’s lead placement and there are already plenty of slots open for McElhenney to happen.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204213452

RIP to “Sex Education” collecting its things. A “Master of None” season focused on Lena Waithe, who has herself been embroiled in controversy and pushback in the past few years and who (I feel like we need to openly address this) cannot act, does not sound like my cup of tea, and five episodes doesn’t sound like it meets the Emmys rules for competition in the series categories, but I’m sure someone will figure this one out and if it has already been added to the predictions center, maybe it has already been addressed. Then again, that description doesn’t really make it sound like Aziz Ansari is going to be the lead character of the season.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204196568

1) “Nomadland”
2) “Sound of Metal”
3) “Minari”
4) “Judas and the Black Messiah”
5) “The Father”
6) “Promising Young Woman”
7) “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
8) “Mank”

Reply

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204195917

I’m not sure of the exact interpretation of the rules, but I find it hard to believe HBO would schedule this return for the earliest possible consideration into NEXT year’s race, especially when the field is noticeably less competitive this year. I know the “Mare of Easttown”/“The Nevers” combo on Sundays prevented anything sooner than a May 23rd premiere, but surely they did their homework on eligibility unless they truly are holding onto it for next year, which I find hard to believe given the state of this year’s race and still airing in the middle of the year, not even relatively near the peak of the winter awards season (at that point, why not wait until the fall?).

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204195748

“In Treatment” premieres Sunday, May 23rd. Back-to-back half-hour episodes on Sundays and Mondays for six weeks. There is definitely a chance for this show to break through at the end of the race with major buzz, if people can keep up with four episodes a week, and the performances look strong in the trailer. Might have to wait for the season to premiere before figuring out which supporting actors could possibly make a dent, but there’s certainly space in this year’s field. I’m thinking especially about Anthony Ramos, who will have this show and “In the Heights” simultaneously in June as Emmy nomination voting gets rolling.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204195493

I sort of broke down my thoughts in the “SNL” thread, but I kind of don’t see Bowen defeating Kenan, at least not yet. I think Kenan has amassed so much goodwill in the industry and has a narrative of being the longest-tenured “SNL” player in history, while Bowen is still fresh and working his way into being one of the show’s star players (though he clearly shines whenever he does get an opportunity). I think he’s good for a nomination right now, but I’m not ready to talk about a win.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204194780

Even though I had him in my predictions already due to the dearth of contenders this year and his pre-existing individual buzz, Bowen Yang maybe solidified his place in the race last night with this iceberg skit that has gone crazy viral. It is still a bit of a curiosity that he could be nominated as a featured player, but he’s clearly one of the best in the cast and has to certainly be at least ahead of Beck Bennett, Kyle Mooney, Mikey Day, Alex Moffat, Chris Redd, Colin Jost and Michael Che. Since Kenan would be a returning nominee and Pete Davidson is arguably the most famous cast member currently, you can make an argument for their odds being better than Yang, but given that this is a genuine breakout moment coming toward the end of the season, it can only help Yang’s case. I certainly think he’s got a better shot that the other breakout featured player Chloe Fineman, but that’s because she’s got Kate, Cecily, Aidy and maybe even Maya to compete with, whereas the male cast pales in comparison, which makes Yang’s path easier. A promotion to main cast should be happening this summer for Yang and Fineman, and while the supporting comedy fields are empty that they could grab nominations this year, it seems plausible they could be nominees down the line given their strong buzz this early on in their tenure on the show.

Reply

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204187790

On the “TV’s Top 5” podcast, Hollywood Reporter journalists Daniel Fienberg and Lesley Goldberg said that there is a show premiering in May that hasn’t been announced yet that will “absolutely” be a Comedy contender at the Emmys based on its past history. This plays into some of the talk we’d heard earlier last week, and considering it is April and there is enough word on the ground about this show, we should be getting an announcement soon.

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204177282

I frankly don’t like most of you enough to scroll through and read all of these comments, but someone needs to explain to me what the thought process is behind Andra Day being the frontrunner now that Viola Davis won SAG. Make it make sense. The only real conclusion you can draw is that it boosts Davis and hurts Mulligan (and potentially McDormand or Kirby, but they still have a shot at winning a major precursor if BAFTA still counts). Depending on how BAFTA goes we may have different winners in both actress categories going into Oscar night and honestly, that’s the only compelling part of this season that I have really lost interest in, whether due to my passive appreciation but lack of passion for most of these performances, or the extended timeline that feels like we’re rewarding films from a different lifetime. On a positive note, I am thrilled for Youn Yuh Jung and her potential Oscars victory is the one thing I’m really invested in for the next few weeks. And let me just say as someone who doesn’t have his heart in it this season, the abbreviated ceremony worked fine for me. Truly cannot wait for the Oscars to finally happen and move on.

Reply

[mf617 Joined: Oct 17th, 2011 Topics: 0 Posts: 340 View Predictions]

#1204168221

Did no one bother to read the article before commenting? Lionsgate didn’t have sequel rights. MRC and Johnson went for the biggest paycheck, which obviously was going to come from a streamer. I think Netflix will treat these films more like their annual awards contenders than a “To All the Boys” or “Old Guard” franchise. At the very least, Johnson is writing and directing both films, but by all means everyone freak out without knowing all the details.

Reply